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Tour of East Java - Discussion
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 04-03-2022 09:47
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Classics Specialist
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Preview made by the amazing redordead
Welcome to the 8th edition of the Tour of East Java or as I like to call it "The unofficial climbing world championship". Since this is only a 2 day stage race that falls in the PTHC category, it's easy to see how it attracts a lot of the best climbers both PT and PCT have to offer. The mountain stage is shorter and not as difficult as most mountain stages are. With that stats like stamina and recovery are not important and it opens up the race for more riders.
With that said let's look at some of the favourites:
| MO | HI | RS | SP | AC | DH |  Herklotz | 84 | 81 | 80 | 68 | 76 | 76 |  Phinney | 85 | 77 | 74 | 72 | 75 | 71 |  Lecuisinier | 85 | 75 | 80 | 67 | 74 | 70 |  Kudus | 84 | 77 | 77 | 63 | 70 | 67 |  Lopez | 79 | 84 | 74 | 66 | 78 | 71 |  Morton | 84 | 76 | 78 | 57 | 67 | 68 |  Yates | 80 | 76 | 80 | 67 | 76 | 71 |  Barguil | 81 | 75 | 77 | 64 | 75 | 76 |  Wellens | 82 | 75 | 80 | 63 | 68 | 70 |  Pluchkin | 83 | 73 | 75 | 65 | 71 | 64 |  Alarcon | 83 | 72 | 72 | 58 | 76 | 65 |  Novak | 79 | 77 | 76 | 64 | 76 | 75 |  Quintana | 82 | 74 | 76 | 51 | 66 | 61 |  Eastman | 82 | 71 | 75 | 62 | 69 | 66 |  Warchol | 80 | 74 | 77 | 61 | 70 | 68 |  Penasa | 80 | 74 | 72 | 57 | 76 | 64 |  Shikai | 81 | 71 | 76 | 57 | 66 | 69 |  Faglum Karlsson | 79 | 73 | 75 | 60 | 68 | 74 |
Herklotz has all the tools to win the race. He's the punchiest climber in MG and this race would seem to suit him well. But Phinney did win it last year in impressive fashion. He's also a fast finisher, but he can attack from far out also. Lecuisinier is the best pure climber let's say and he'll want to improve on 4th place from last year. Kudus has entered the climbing elite this season and has already shown this season that he can beat the best. Lopez is a bit of a wildcard. He's one of the most dangerous riders if he arrives at the final uphill in the front group. Can he keep up with the climbing elite in a similar way to Beltran in 2019?
Morton is a top climber, but he's less explosive than others. He'll want a hard tempo to distance the weaker climbers. Yates doesn't have the mountain stat of some others, but his big resistance could help him hold on and use his punch in the end. It's a similar story for Barguil, while Wellens and Pluchkin are both more of the diesel type. Alarcon has some notable holes in his stats, but perhaps the easier nature of the mountain stage will help him. His mountain stat is still among the best along with good acceleration. Novak is even faster, but like MAL will he stick with the best? Quintana and Eastman are two more diesel climbers that might prefer the climb to be longer as they like a battle of attrition
| Sprinter | FL | RS | SP | AC | Leadout | FL | RS | SP | AC | | Coquard | 73 | 74 | 84 | 83 | Farantakis | 72 | 70 | 78 | 78 | | Kemboi | 78 | 77 | 80 | 80 | Wouters | 70 | 72 | 74 | 75 | | Reinhardt | 71 | 66 | 79 | 84 | Stocker | 75 | 73 | 76 | 77 |  Kragh Andersen | 77 | 74 | 81 | 77 | Aranburu | 69 | 79 | 68 | 71 | | Liu | 74 | 69 | 80 | 80 | Kuroeda | 72 | 77 | 76 | 73 | | Eislers | 79 | 78 | 82 | 78 | Dzamastagic | 78 | 72 | 76 | 78 | | Guarnieri | 74 | 73 | 80 | 78 | Konychev | 77 | 74 | 73 | 71 | | Bertilsson | 73 | 71 | 79 | 77 | Osorio | 67 | 70 | 70 | 69 | | Mareczko | 74 | 73 | 78 | 77 | Weemaes | 69 | 67 | 70 | 70 |  Hayakawa | 73 | 68 | 79 | 79 | Lavoine | 72 | 62 | 79 | 76 | | Young | 74 | 70 | 78 | 77 | Russo | 71 | 73 | 74 | 76 | | Cisse | 74 | 67 | 78 | 77 | Silva | 75 | 70 | 77 | 78 | | Zariff | 68 | 65 | 78 | 78 | Kanter | 73 | 71 | 77 | 78 |
The 2 day stage race also attracts some big sprinters that have tagged along with the climbers. Coquard is the clear number one sprinter and looks well supported by Farantakis. Kemboi always needs to be considered, he's one of the most powerful sprinter out there and Wouters should be a suitable lead out if he needs him. Reinhardt's massive acceleration can always be a factor and Stocker might be one of his better partners in a sprint. Kragh Andersen is having a great bounce back season, he'll most likely work off other trains. Liu has solid support in Kuroeda if he needs him. The Eislers-Dzamastagic partnership has rarely worked so far. Can we trust it this time? Guarnieri is not the same rider he was, but still deserves a mention as an 80 sprinter and Bertilsson has already scored a few surprising wins this season.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-03-2022 10:07
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World Champion
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Hoping Novak can follow the best here. No real expectations for Mareczko.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| redordead |
Posted on 04-03-2022 10:07
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Grand Tour Specialist
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On paper one of the races that should suit Alarcon to the ground, but of course the startlist is brutal as ever.
Thanks for the preview redordead 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 04-03-2022 10:40
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Directeur Sportif
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Go Phinney! Almost cut this race despite being the defending champ, but I hope Phinney can deliver.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 03:45
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| SotD |
Posted on 04-03-2022 10:56
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World Champion
Posts: 12187
Joined: 29-11-2006
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Whenever Coquard is a massive pre-stage favorite I always get very dissapointed, yet there are NO excuses not to win the opening stage.
Lecuisinier really should better his 4th place from last season, but on paper I would see him as the no. 3 favorite only, so it could end up "bad". Bad is relative though as the limited racedays obviously give some leeway for mediocracy without losing a lot of points.
Herklotz and Phinney should be the duo to watch, but I'm also very interested in seeing what MAL can do here. Kudus obviously the 5th outsider for the win. I can see Morton do well, but to win it he would need 5 riders to be on a relatively poor day I think.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 04-03-2022 12:33
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Directeur Sportif
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Expected it to be a strong startlist and it is! Think we have to expect a Top 15 as the realistic best case GC target for this race. Let's hope Penasa carries his Austria consistency here.
Thanks for the preview red 
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| quadsas |
Posted on 04-03-2022 13:12
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
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We ARE here
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 04-03-2022 15:05
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Tour de France Champion
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We know going into the year that this is going to be a packed startlist just based on it being a two-stage stage race. The top guns can come here and potentially get stage race GC points while only giving up a classic's worth of race days. It makes sense why so many choose to come.
With that in mind, we had Guldhammer forego participating here in anticipation of top PT competition. Not sure if that is the right move, as I always underestimate the amount of depth points available in a PTHC race, which is often worth more than a top placing in a lower tier race. Regardless, he's not here. Aranburu is our only climber and his chances of doing anything are nonexistent.
That leaves AKA to sprint tomorrow. He's been great this year, and I'm obviously hoping for that again. Startlist actually isn't too bad for the sprinters either, surprisingly. Coquard far and above the best, but that doesn't necessarily mean he has a better chance of winning. AKA as a wheelsurfer in that 2nd tier of favorites has done well time and again before this year, but in a single stage it could go either way. We'll hope for the best.
Thanks for the preview redordead!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| knockout |
Posted on 04-03-2022 15:45
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Grand Tour Champion
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Quite varying results in the past by Lopez, Beltran, etc so I'm a bit nervous here. Obviously having both Lopez and Taaramae allowed me to send Taaramae to Suisse without losing the great PPRD potential here so i am glad that i did the planning decision the way i did.
Something between top 3-5 would be good and should be possible but also far worse results are imaginable. Hopefully, Lopez will be on a good day.
For the sprint stage, Eislers is my hope. A stage podium would be cool but everything from non-sprint to stage podium seems possible.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 05-03-2022 00:10
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Team Leader
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A GC top 10 for Yates and a stage top 5 for Kemboi would represent success here. The ambitious target would probably be around 7th or 8th for Yates and Kemboi on the podium, but given the low number of RDs used here I'll be happy with slightly less. |
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 05-03-2022 09:13
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4505
Joined: 05-10-2010
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Was hoping we might get lucky with a good result in our home race, but there’s no chance with this startlist my god! A bit of tv time and some aggressive riding is all we can ask for.
Thanks for the preview!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 05-03-2022 09:48
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World Champion
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Well, at least Novak was on the right side of that split.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| ember |
Posted on 05-03-2022 11:21
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Team Leader
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What a season Kragh is having! Congratulations again, bbl!
For our chances, I'm hopeful for a top 10 GC from Kwiatkowski, but it depends a lot on how hard that mountain on stage 2 proves to be. If raced controlled, it could be perfect for Kwiatkowski, if the big guns go all in early, a top 15 will be very difficult. Fingers crossed! |
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 05-03-2022 12:23
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8057
Joined: 22-06-2009
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Weird split there, glad Ryan Eastman was alert and paying attention. Congrats to fellow American BBL on the win! 
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 05-03-2022 13:51
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4505
Joined: 05-10-2010
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68ovl Wibisono and Yudha finish high in peloton but Dunbar loses 2’ 
Congrats bbl, the man continues his amazing form.
Thanks for the report.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 05-03-2022 16:00
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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Hard to find anything more to say at this point. AKA has just been unbelievable this season. Completely unbelievable. In a single year he's gone from inconsistent and underwhelming in CT to winning several PTHC stages against the very best. And he's been remarkably consistent. Every single race he does what he did here. He finds the perfect wheel, just far back enough to not burn out, and launches at just the perfect time to utilize his big engine. It's perfect. He does it exactly like I would do it if I was playing PCM with him, maybe better. I am so incredibly lucky that PCM 20 loves him so much and has him ride so intelligently. Sometimes it feels like he's the only one who understands how to win sprints in the game engine.
So, just like in Norway, we came here completely behind AKA, looking for a way to get some points in a stacked PTHC race, and he delivers to perfection by winning the opening day. That means we not only get stage points, but he gets a day in yellow, and all the glory and points that brings. Amazing. I'd like it if he could find a way to take points in an intermediate sprint tomorrow and secure the points jersey. Don't think that's gonna happen though. It will either be a tie among the stage winners or go to an attacker.
I've been waiting until the next rankings update to post an HQ post about AKA's god like renaissance, but he's really forcing the issue here.
Thanks for the report Nemo! Loved how you covered the finish.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| redordead |
Posted on 05-03-2022 16:14
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
Joined: 18-10-2017
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Weird stage with gaps, don't like it all.
You're not the only one 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| knockout |
Posted on 05-03-2022 17:05
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
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AKAs season really makes me look forward to next season with Eislers as he should benefit heavily from the decline and from not getting benefitial AI treatment.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| SotD |
Posted on 05-03-2022 18:52
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World Champion
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Another pathetic sprint from Coquard. Two stagewins so far this season, with one being an obvious cheat as he was only 3rd. He’s wasting raceday after raceday. Hell Farantakis is performing more consistent results…
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| quadsas |
Posted on 05-03-2022 20:16
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
Joined: 18-01-2013
PCM$: 300.00
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0 pointer officially avoided. cement
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Tour of East Java 
