With the season probably kicking off quite soon, and with there being just a few previews around, I'd love to get once again a broader picture of what you fellow managers (or spectators) think about the 2021 teams' strengths.
Last year's community preview wasn't too shabby - mostly beaten by just a few individual predictions - so let's do it again! I'll on one hand collect all the previews publicly available. On the other hand - especially for those who just want to spend the minimum amount of time - there's again the possibility to just fill out below tables. Just click "Quote", then copy the table, fill in the "Rank" column ("Comment" is completely optional), and either post it in this thread, or send it to me by PM. The PM predictions will remain anonymous, i.e. even if you submitted the most precise prediction, the world won't know you're an expert. Submissions in this thread will obviously be public ^^
Hoping for as much participation as possible, especially given that there's really not a whole lot of "material" around - I currently count 2 previews for PT, 7 for PCT (including the 4 conglomerate participants' and not a single one for CT
And another quick CT. Purely based on a rider points projection, I don't look at team construction. Except for Strava, Knockout and I seem to agree pretty strongly.
As March is already halfway done, it's definitely time to post this preview - actually along with the first intermediate results!
Unfortunately, previews haven't been very "en vogue" this year. While last year we had 7 for PT, 14 for PCT and 8 for CT, for 2021 we only have 3 for PT, 8 for PCT and 2 for CT (which you can see in the two previous posts). We lost a lot of managers in the offseason, so I guess the number of previews is another indication of decreasing interest in MG - and, at least for me personally, the pretty random behavior of the new version has seen even more managers losing motivation. Let's hope we can turn things around soon!!!
But now onto the community predictions. Let me explain how I got the rankings:
- Find the median predicted rank of every team
- Find the average predicted rank of every team
- Find the range of prediction (i.e. difference between mininum and maximum predicted rank)
- Order first by median, then by average, then by range
The sorting by median values minimizes the effect of outliers. Of course, with only 3 (PT) and 2 (CT) previews, this isn't really relevant - in the latter case it's actually strictly equivalent to the average. The average is taken as a tie-breaker in case of equal median values. And finally, we'll take the range as an "ultimate" tie-breaker, as I consider a more narrow range to be potentially more precise.
So, I guess that's enough explanations, and we can finally move onto the actual predictions. ​And obviously, we do first things first, so let's take a look at the 2021 PT Community Prediction:
On top of the list, we have pretty much the same teams as every year - maybe with the exception of Moser - Sygic being slightly further down for once. The podium spots are almost identical in all three submitted/collected predictions, with Isostar - Specialized being predicted 1 - 1 - 3, Team Puma - SAP as the only other winning bet getting 1 - 3 - 4, and - the most constantly predicted team - Evonik - ELKO finishing 2nd in all three predictions.
We then need a first tie-breaker to keep Festina - OAKA and Gazelle apart, with the former running away with a slightly better average prediction.
At the bottom of the table, there's nothing new to be seen: Xero Racing are obviously doomed, as always - being predicted 19 - 20 - 20. The two other relegation spot "favorites" are MOL and Team Tinkoff - La Datcha - but they look to be way closer to safety than to Xero. Which means that in terms of median prediction, the gap to Xero is the same as to 13th placed Huski Chocolate - will we really have a relegation fight including 8 teams?
Let's directly take a look at how these predcitions match with the current (February) PT standings:
Obviously, we're still early in the season, meaning several top shots have barely raced, while others have already set the bar really high. Nonetheless, seeing Evonik - ELKO at the very bottom is a huge shocker! Being 18 spots off the prediction in a division with 20 teams should be a rare sight. Moser - Sygic are the other team having a double digit gap to the expected outcome - in the negative way. Because we also have two double digit outliers the other way round, with ISA - Hexacta and relegation favorites MOL clearly exceeding the expectations until now.
However, there are also predictions that turned out to be very precise for the first to months, notably leader Team Puma - SAP and 2nd placed Isostar - Specialized. Festina - OAKA are the only team exactly on the predicted spot by now, while the Top 10 predictions for Grieg-Maersk and Farfetch Pro Cycling are looking to be accurate as well.
With MOL, one of the relegation contenders is really high up, while Team Tinkoff - La Datcha are just two spots above the relegation zone. And Xero Racing don't look *that* doomed until now.
At the moment, the community prediction has an average deviation of 6.1 spots per team, which is obviously a bad result given the size of the division. None of the three individual previews are that much better, though, with knockout's PT prediction (see above) being the best with an average deviation of 5.8. A lot of the imprecision is obviously due to Evonik's horrible start, as well as ISA punching a lot above (expected) weight.
It will definitely be interesting to see how things look after the next two months, with the two cobbled monuments and the first GT included. We'll see - but first we'll move onto the other divisions. They will be posted in the next few days - stay tuned
Sorry guys, but I finally won't do the other divisions, nor any updates during the season (maybe the final outcome). On one hand, I feel like there's no interest in such a project. On the other hand, I'm stopping pretty much everything linked to MG for this season. Thanks for those who participated - I had actually fun putting the numbers together and all that stuff, but at this point MG just sucks and is pure frustration, so I'll better keep away.
I can fully relate to that mate. I enjoyed the read, but forgot to comment due to reading at work.
I really struggle to find motivation too as the game really isn’t behaving well. Infact it seems to be increasingly bad from season to season. Previously the game was not necessarily better, but atleast to some point predictable which was then a learning curve that all could adapt to.
I fear this version can be the beginning of the end for the Man-Game which I really don’t want. I must say that for me a throw back to earlier versions (not particular in favor or disfavor of any) is the only viable option at this point. Last season I agreed that we needed to follow the newer versions, when we couldn’t accept the level from what we had - but when the mistakes only increase in volume, I have to say that I was wrong and 1-2 or even 3 step backs need to be made. For the sake of the Man-Game.
SotD wrote:
I can fully relate to that mate. I enjoyed the read, but forgot to comment due to reading at work.
I really struggle to find motivation too as the game really isn’t behaving well. Infact it seems to be increasingly bad from season to season. Previously the game was not necessarily better, but atleast to some point predictable which was then a learning curve that all could adapt to.
I fear this version can be the beginning of the end for the Man-Game which I really don’t want. I must say that for me a throw back to earlier versions (not particular in favor or disfavor of any) is the only viable option at this point. Last season I agreed that we needed to follow the newer versions, when we couldn’t accept the level from what we had - but when the mistakes only increase in volume, I have to say that I was wrong and 1-2 or even 3 step backs need to be made. For the sake of the Man-Game.
Overall interest in the Man-Game is falling fast IMHO. At the end of last season we saw far too many teams disbanding (two folded by technicality), some were there for years - we've lost CrueTrue, Aquarius97, YellowJersey, Kentaurus and Atlantius among others. And there aren't that many new managers to join and some who join leave after only a single season (or in the case of filwat this season - never appear at all). We're even experiencing a shortage of reporters - sure, props to guys like Nemolito, redordead and AbhishekLFC doing what they can as well as everyone (including myself) voulenteering with race previews, but we can't rely on 2-3 people doing the bulk of the reports. We can't go on like that.
And I know this isn't the place or the time, but I sincerely think that for the ManGame to survive, there must be a rethink of the current formula. I don't mean to go to a radical new way, because it doesn't have to be this way, but we must do something about the dwindling number of managers and reporters
I also like the read, but hadn't found the time to comment so far and was most of all waiting for PCT Would be nice to have a quick overview at the end of the season, but of course understand if in the end you won't/can't make one.
All said above is in my opinion a consequence of something we can't fix. It's Cyanide bringing the same boring game year after year without any interesting novelties. Comapre that to PCM 10 years ago where each version was better than the previous and it's not hard to see why people play less.
Said it once, say it again. In no world will I stay in the game if we go back to older games. If you want to change the formula up, it has to be with the reports, and not the game
SotD wrote:
I can fully relate to that mate. I enjoyed the read, but forgot to comment due to reading at work.
I really struggle to find motivation too as the game really isn’t behaving well. Infact it seems to be increasingly bad from season to season. Previously the game was not necessarily better, but atleast to some point predictable which was then a learning curve that all could adapt to.
I tend to be a defender of the AI. But I think the point about predictability is s great one I don't think good AI and good AI for the mangame are the same thing. I can see the arguments for going back if it made a big difference to a lot of people.
I am still motivated but maybe because I don't expect my team to do well. But it does make me less inclined to do reporting when others are demotivated.
Nemolito wrote:
I also like the read, but hadn't found the time to comment so far and was most of all waiting for PCT Would be nice to have a quick overview at the end of the season, but of course understand if in the end you won't/can't make one.
Given that the numbers were almost ready anyway, I'll just post them, but without extensive comment.
2021 PCT Community Prediction
Number of predictions taken into account: 8
Rank
Team
Median
Average
Range
1
Aker - MOT
1
2.88
13
2
Polar
3
6.63
18
3
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
4.5
5.25
5
4
Team UBS
4.5
6.63
18
5
cycleYorkshire
5.5
7.00
16
6
Assa Abloy
6.5
7.88
20
7
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
7.5
7.63
10
8
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
9.5
11.00
20
9
Binance Cycling
10.5
10.63
10
10
Voyagin - Bird
11.5
12.25
18
11
Minions
12
13.13
8
12
Red Bull Zalgiris
12.5
11.88
22
13
Kraftwerk Man Machine
12.5
13.38
18
14
Duolingo
13
13.75
8
15
Cedevita
15.5
15.25
20
16
Philips - Force India
16.5
15.63
11
17
Los Pollos Hermanos
16.5
15.63
23
18
Project: Africa
17
17.63
10
19
Carrefour - ESPN
19
17.38
14
20
Bralirwa - Stevens
19
18.63
17
21
Tryg - Ritter Sport
19.5
17.25
21
22
Podium Ambition
20.5
19.25
20
23
Indosat Ooredoo
22
20.13
23
24
Eurosport x GCN
22.5
19.88
17
25
Sauber Petronas Racing
24
21.38
21
26
Jura - Fiat
24
23.13
13
PCT Rankings #2 vs. Community Prediction
Team
Current rank
Predicted rank
Difference
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
1
3
-2
Duolingo
2
14
-12
Red Bull Zalgiris
3
12
-9
Team UBS
4
4
0
Bralirwa - Stevens
5
20
-15
Carrefour - ESPN
6
19
-13
cycleYorkshire
7
5
+2
Project: Africa
8
18
-10
Binance Cycling
9
9
0
Podium Ambition
10
22
-12
Los Pollos Hermanos
11
17
-6
Aker - MOT
12
1
+11
Sauber Petronas Racing
13
25
-12
Eurosport x GCN
14
24
-10
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
15
7
+8
Polar
16
2
+14
Tryg - Ritter Sport
17
21
-4
Assa Abloy
18
6
+12
Philips - Force India
19
16
+3
Minions
20
11
+9
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
21
8
+13
Indosat Ooredoo
22
23
-1
Cedevita
23
15
+8
Voyagin - Bird
24
10
+14
Kraftwerk Man Machine
25
13
+12
Jura - Fiat
26
26
0
Community prediction avg. deviation: 8.2
Best individual prediction avg. deviation (submitted by PM, hence anonymous): 6.9
2021 CT Community Prediction
Predictions taken into account: 2
Rank
Team
Median
Average
Range
1
Aramco DP
1
1.00
0
2
HelloFresh
2
2.00
0
3
Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller
4
4.00
0
4
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
4
4.00
2
4
Trans Looney Tunes
4
4.00
2
6
Crabbe-CC Chevigny
6.5
6.50
1
7
Volcanica - Fox
7.5
7.50
1
8
Strava
8.5
8.50
5
9
BWT Hyundai N Cycling
9
9.00
0
10
BNZ-Superhero Racing
9
9.00
2
11
McCormick Pro Cycling
11
11.00
2
12
Tafjord Kraft
12
12.00
2
13
Glanbia Foods Cycling Project
13
13.00
2
14
Eddie Stobart
13.5
13.50
1
CT Rankings #2 vs. Community Prediction
Team
Current rank
Predicted rank
Difference
HelloFresh
1
2
-1
Crabbe-CC Chevigny
2
6
-4
Aramco DP
3
1
+2
Trans Looney Tunes
4
4
0
McCormick Pro Cycling
5
11
-6
Strava
6
8
-2
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
7
4
+3
Glanbia Foods Cycling Project
8
13
-5
Volcanica - Fox
9
7
+2
Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller
10
3
+7
BWT Hyundai N Cycling
11
9
+2
Eddie Stobart
12
14
-2
BNZ-Superhero Racing
13
10
+3
Tafjord Kraft
14
12
+2
Community prediction avg. deviation: 2.9
Best individual prediction avg. deviation (Ulrich Ulriksen, see above): 2.9
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
I am still motivated but maybe because I don't expect my team to do well. But it does make me less inclined to do reporting when others are demotivated.
Your second point explains why I stopped reporting. Concerning your first point, I was in the same place last year. But as they did well, I did not see why I should lower the expectations of some riders in the same races against the same/very similar competition - and seeing that the AI just isn't kind with us and is pretty much bs all around in most races so far, well, motivation is now gone. I mean, I can live with finishing last - someone has to - but not like that. What bothers me is that it feels more random than ever, and that's the last thing I'd want in a manager game. Some randomness yeah, for sure, I'm absolutely in for an upset win here or there. But for me it's just way too much this year.
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
I am still motivated but maybe because I don't expect my team to do well. But it does make me less inclined to do reporting when others are demotivated.
Your second point explains why I stopped reporting. Concerning your first point, I was in the same place last year. But as they did well, I did not see why I should lower the expectations of some riders in the same races against the same/very similar competition - and seeing that the AI just isn't kind with us and is pretty much bs all around in most races so far, well, motivation is now gone. I mean, I can live with finishing last - someone has to - but not like that. What bothers me is that it feels more random than ever, and that's the last thing I'd want in a manager game. Some randomness yeah, for sure, I'm absolutely in for an upset win here or there. But for me it's just way too much this year.
You know, the AI has been unpredictable lately and honestly it's more of an Russian Roulette thing than something that is as realistic as it can be. Especially on sprints.
quadsas wrote:
Said it once, say it again. In no world will I stay in the game if we go back to older games. If you want to change the formula up, it has to be with the reports, and not the game
While I agree that reverting back to PCM15 or 18 is a no-go, undertaking radical reporting change may be a problem. If it is quick simulation and only showing results ICL/RTG style, I'm totally against it, because those detailed reports are what make the ManGame so unique.
While I agree that reverting back to PCM15 or 18 is a no-go, undertaking radical reporting change may be a problem. If it is quick simulation and only showing results ICL/RTG style, I'm totally against it, because those detailed reports are what make the ManGame so unique.
With dwindling numbers and motivation it's unrealistic and unfair to expect people to keep doing long ass reports and waiting a year for really, the only time when people are actually active on the site. I think the length of the season is the biggest bane on MG. If there is a way to reduce it to even let's say 6 months, it should be heavily considered. If it has to do with more quick simming (for more 'realistic' and quicker results) then so be it, we can start doing polls on races people want to have more detailed reports of and do those rather than every race and every shit stage on longer tours
While I agree that reverting back to PCM15 or 18 is a no-go, undertaking radical reporting change may be a problem. If it is quick simulation and only showing results ICL/RTG style, I'm totally against it, because those detailed reports are what make the ManGame so unique.
With dwindling numbers and motivation it's unrealistic and unfair to expect people to keep doing long ass reports and waiting a year for really, the only time when people are actually active on the site. I think the length of the season is the biggest bane on MG. If there is a way to reduce it to even let's say 6 months, it should be heavily considered. If it has to do with more quick simming (for more 'realistic' and quicker results) then so be it, we can start doing polls on races people want to have more detailed reports of and do those rather than every race and every shit stage on longer tours
You’re taking a very negative attitude to the whole thing there to be honest. There are many active managers who post in the race threads and update their HQs and who enjoy following the reports. Personally I would find very limited enjoyment if there was any simming as there’s no tension or thrill in following a report which is what this game is all about.
From a reporting side, it’s been moving along pretty quickly this season and will continue to do so as we have a number of people now driving that along which would be the only thing slowing the season down.
This is still an amazing game with huge amounts of effort and time put in by many and if they didn’t want to do that then I’m sure they’d say something!
Sorry guys, but I finally won't do the other divisions, nor any updates during the season (maybe the final outcome). On one hand, I feel like there's no interest in such a project. On the other hand, I'm stopping pretty much everything linked to MG for this season. Thanks for those who participated - I had actually fun putting the numbers together and all that stuff, but at this point MG just sucks and is pure frustration, so I'll better keep away.
Cheers.
Very much understandable. I'd love to see an end of season update as I'm very interested in seeing how my predictions will compare to other ones. Early season updates offer fairly little value since obviously there are lots of differences in terms of valuable RDs used and the PT Community Prediction with just three predictors (one of which was myself) didnt seem to offer big surprises to me so i kinda was waiting on all three updates to make a comment on it. (Shame on me, obviously not good to drive interaction/content).
ivaneurope wrote:
Overall interest in the Man-Game is falling fast IMHO. At the end of last season we saw far too many teams disbanding (two folded by technicality), some were there for years - we've lost CrueTrue, Aquarius97, YellowJersey, Kentaurus and Atlantius among others. And there aren't that many new managers to join and some who join leave after only a single season (or in the case of filwat this season - never appear at all).
I think the lack of new managers is a much bigger problem than the disbands. In the past we had similar or more disbands than this year and it actually had some good benefits to the game (imo): low activity managers were removed from the game quicker and i like having strong FA classes since it gives newer managers a better chance to climb the divisions quickly.
Having lots of applicants allowed us to filter new manager applicants more. We still had some excellent additions the last few years but we had more filwats or KingTheManiaks than previously since we have to take on more risks / unknowns to this forum.
The PCT Community Prediction is so wild. Only one team having an average <5 is sick but is probably another testament to how close the strengths of the teams are.
The CT prediction is already surprisingly close to the current ranking. I kinda wonder whether that is because the teams are far further away from each other, because the early season schedule in CT is more representative than for other divisions or what? (smaller size of division helps but even factoring it in, it seems more accurate)
While I agree that reverting back to PCM15 or 18 is a no-go, undertaking radical reporting change may be a problem. If it is quick simulation and only showing results ICL/RTG style, I'm totally against it, because those detailed reports are what make the ManGame so unique.
With dwindling numbers and motivation it's unrealistic and unfair to expect people to keep doing long ass reports and waiting a year for really, the only time when people are actually active on the site. I think the length of the season is the biggest bane on MG. If there is a way to reduce it to even let's say 6 months, it should be heavily considered. If it has to do with more quick simming (for more 'realistic' and quicker results) then so be it, we can start doing polls on races people want to have more detailed reports of and do those rather than every race and every shit stage on longer tours
You’re taking a very negative attitude to the whole thing there to be honest. There are many active managers who post in the race threads and update their HQs and who enjoy following the reports. Personally I would find very limited enjoyment if there was any simming as there’s no tension or thrill in following a report which is what this game is all about.
From a reporting side, it’s been moving along pretty quickly this season and will continue to do so as we have a number of people now driving that along which would be the only thing slowing the season down.
This is still an amazing game with huge amounts of effort and time put in by many and if they didn’t want to do that then I’m sure they’d say something!
It's obviously not about people who are very active, almost as if you've missed entire conversation about people losing interest very quickly????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Btw, when talking about little interest in the previews, I was rather thinking overall, i.e. available previews (roughly cut in half compared to last year), not missing reactions to the PT post. I was aware that most might be waiting for "their" division, or for all divisions to be posted. The relative lack of previews (there wasn't a single qualitative CT one) for me reflects quite well the decreased interest in the game - which is something I hope a solution can be found to. I can second SotD's remark that for MG a predictable AI would be more valuable than a "more realistic" one, as with the current AI long-term team building only makes sense if you can finally end up with an OP stage racer (or cobbler, to a lesser extent). Sprinters, puncheurs and TTers seem to be subject to way too much randomness, which is neither realistic (e.g. how often does a team's designated sprint leader not sprint irl?) nor good for the game. But I think a lot of this discussion should actually go to an "MG Future Discussion" thread...
We can see that the biggest outliers (difference 10) are actually positive surprises, as both ISA - Hexacta and MOL were expected way further down, with the latter even being a relegation candidate. I guess they surprised everyone, as no prediction had them in the Top 10. Similar things can be said about Team Tinkoff - La Datcha, who instead of relegating had a solid mid-table finish.
The biggest outliers the other way round - ranked much lower than expected - were Gazelle, Moser - Sygic and Mapei. Things respectively riders that worked well in previous years - leading to good predictions - didn't do much this time around, making the former two teams finish rather clearly outside the expected Top 10, while the latter even were relegated (after announcing their disband anyway).
So that's 6 teams finishing rather far off the predicted spots, but for the 14 other teams, predictions were at most 5 places off, mostly even 3 and less. The community preview correctly predicted Isostar - Specialized winning the division, Festina - OAKA finishing 4th and Xero Racing ending up dead last.
Overall, the community prediction has a deviation of 3.6 spots - which is exactly the same value as we have for SotD's 2021 PT Preview as well as for knockout's Prediction posted in this thread. Thanks for participating!
PCT and CT will be posted in the next couple of days.
Edited by Fabianski on 10-07-2022 19:33
and not a single one for CT 
