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Ollfardh was bored at work and looked at the PCT leaders 2021
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Posted on 21-12-2024 16:12
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 12-10-2021 08:37
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World Champion
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I'm really not getting any better at this, but yeah, here we go again. Let's see how bad I did last year:
https://pcmdaily....st_1374084
- Again the cobbles were pretty accurate, although the Andorra dominance could not be measured with my system. I did miss the Xero cobblers, but they were doomed anyway so yeah.
- For the hills I was off a bit, both Beltran and Buchmann disappointed and Izagirre took the crown here. Furthermore dropping Claeys from 1th to 6th wasn't enough, as he scored even worse than last year.
- I expected Tenorio to take over from Pluchkin in the stage races, but this was not the year he loses his title as best PCT rider. Gesink coming in third alo meant the stage racers dominated another year.
- What a weird year for the sprinters. I spoke of the big 3, but they got suprised by Manninen (not even in the top 10!) and Guarnieri (10th). Needless to say, my ranking is done for at this point.
- Zmorka defeated Fiedler, I got that right! Also interesting that the pure time trialist are beating the puncheurs this year.
Onto the rankings then, with (x) being the actual final position:
| Title favourites | | 1 | Mapei (3) | | 2 | Desigual (4) | | Having a shot at promotion | | 3 | Podium (16) | | 4 | Swisslion (19) | | 5 | Repsol (2) | | 6 | Lierse (13) | | 7 | Berg (15) | | 8 | Popo (7) | | 9 | Minions (14) | | 10 | Duolingo (10) | | 11 | Polar (11) | | 12 | Andorra (20) | | Safe midtable | | 13 | DK (18) | | 14 | MOL (6) | | 15 | Nordstrom (24) | | 16 | GCN (21) | | 17 | Fablok (17) | | Could be in trouble | | 18 | Adastra (25) | | 19 | Aramco (22) | | 20 | Bakkafrost (9) | | 21 | Farfetch (1) | | 22 | Valio (12) | | 23 | Kraftwerk (8) | | 24 | Campari (26) | | 25 | Azteka (23) | | As doomed as last year | | 26 | Xero (5) |
- Both Mapei and Desigual promoted, although they did not win the title.
- Farfetch's depth made sure they did not get in trouble and actually win the title
- The having a shot at promotion gang went from 2nd to 20th
- I got Duolingo, Polar and Fablok right!
- Of the could be in trouble list, Adasta, Aramco, Azteca and Campari all went down
- Meaning Nordstrom was not safe midtable
- Xero probably got relegated as well, didn't really follow their season
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 12-10-2021 08:38
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World Champion
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Cobbles
It's a stacked PCT division again, but at least we lose the Summerhill dominance. The top 3 will be really close this year, but 4-7 will also win races and you can't rule out the others either. There's definitely room for some upset wins in the PTHC races.
| Cobbles | Rider | Team | | 1 | Adam Blythe | Eurosport | | 2 | Matteo Trentin | Carlsberg | | 3 | Joeri Stallaert | Bralirwa | | 4 | Lukas Spengler | UBS | | 5 | Marcos Altur | Podium | | 6 | Ruben Zepunkte | Minions | | 7 | Kenneth Vanbilsen | Lierse | | 8 | Maxime Daniel | Carrefour | | 9 | Hampus Anderberg | Aker | | 10 | Vegard Breen | Assa Abloy |
Hills
So, hills went up at well, mostly with aging PT stars, including MG legends Ponzi and Hagen. Again this will be a very close competition and it was hard to only list 10 riders. The top 6 should win most races though.
| Hills | Rider | Team | | 1 | Tomohiro Kinoshita | Voyagin | | 2 | Toms Skujins | Tryg | | 3 | Michal Kwiatkowski | Aker | | 4 | Simone Ponzi | UBS | | 5 | Eduard Beltran | Cedevita | | 6 | Edvals Boasson Hagen | Minions | | 7 | Ion Izagirre | Polar | | 8 | Wilco Kelderman | Philips | | 9 | Jack Bobridge | Africa | | 10 | Tejay Van Garderen | Sauber |
Stage Races
Well, at least the stage races didn't blow up this year. Pluchkin is back for more though, and I don't see anyone challenging him this year. Wellens comes closest, and after that it could go a lot of ways. The races Pluch skips will be very interesting.
| Stage Races | Rider | Team | | | 1 | Aleksandr Pluchkin | Popo | | 2 | Tim Wellens | Tryg | | 3 | Jose Alarcon | Cedevita | | 4 | Sam Oomen | Lierse | | 5 | Nairo Quintana | Jura | | 6 | Simon Spilak | Pollos | | 7 | Chen Shikai | Voyagin | | 8 | Rasmus Guldhammer | Carlsberg | | 9 | Robert Gesink | Duolingo | | 10 | Martijn Keizer | Red Bull |
Sprints
The overall quality of the sprinters has gone down this year, so some new names here. Ewan is definitely the best sprinter, but Van Staeyen could outscore him with good planning. For the others the question is, will it be a Manninen or a Bonifazio season?
| Sprints | Rider | Team | | 1 | Caleb Ewan | Podium | | 2 | Michael Van Staeyen | Carrefour | | 3 | Peter Kennaugh | Binance | | 4 | Matti Manninen | Pollos | | 5 | Leigh Howard | Indosat | | 6 | Lahcen Saber | Cedevita | | 7 | Theo Reinhardt | Jura | | 8 | Tom Van Asbroeck | Philips | | 9 | Fabio Silvestre | Bralirwa | | 10 | Daniel Vesely | Minions |
Time Trial
A few new names here as well, but Zmorka is still the man to beat. Cataford and Brandle will have a special skillset that could give them the edge over the pure time trialist in some races.
| Time Trial | Rider | Team | | 1 | Marlen Zmorka | Pollos | | 2 | Luke Durbridge | Yorkshire | | 3 | Emilien Viennet | Polar | | 4 | Mario Gonzalez Salas | Assa Abloy | | 5 | Silvan Dillier | UBS | | 6 | Damien Howson | Duolingo | | 7 | Alexandor Cataford | Podium | | 8 | Steven Lammertink | Aker | | 9 | Matthias Brandle | Red Bull | | 10 | Jacob Fiedler | Bralirwa |
Edited by Ollfardh on 12-10-2021 10:30
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 12-10-2021 08:38
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World Champion
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On to the final ranking then, and it immediatly shows the flaws of this method. Tryg basicly has 2 great riders, and that puts them on top of the ranking. So I decided not to name them title favourite, because their star riders won't get them far enough. On the other hand some teams with great depth don't see that rewarded in my leader heavy rankings. Poor Kraftwerk even misses out on points after Zabel and Kittel just missed the top 10 in their respective categories. Anyway, here's the ranking:
| False positive | | 1 | Tryg | | Actual title contenders | | 2 | Pollos | | 3 | Cedevita | | 4 | Popo | | 5 | Podium | | 6 | Voyagin | | Could still get promotion | | 7 | UBS | | 8 | Carlsberg | | 9 | Eurosport | | 10 | Carrefour | | 11 | Lierse | | 12 | Minions | | 13 | Jura | | 14 | Aker | | 15 | Bralirwa | | Not entirely safe | | 16 | Polar | | 17 | Binance | | 18 | Yorkshire | | 19 | Duolingo | | 20 | Philips | | 21 | Indosat | | 22 | Assa Abloy | | In trouble | | 23 | Red Bull | | 24 | Africa | | 25 | Sauber | | 26 | Kraftwerk |
Edited by Ollfardh on 12-10-2021 11:02
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 12-10-2021 08:43
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We may have left the division like you said, but after that I have worked really hard to put us in pole position to come back to the PCT next year and I think we'll manage to do it, just you wait!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| redordead |
Posted on 12-10-2021 10:32
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I think 5th best in hills is about as good as I can hope from Beltran. I don't think Alarcon belongs in top 10 stage racers with his piss poor TT, HI and energy stats. While Saber is probably more 8th or 9th among the sprinters.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 12-10-2021 11:05
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Everything updated now!
Jandal - well deserved promotion there, and the perfect example of this method completely ovelrooking team depth!
Red - It's all close, Beltran two seasons ago was amazing, Alarcon could shine in the right races and Saber gets a few bonus points because he can handle cobbled sprints the others can't.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| redordead |
Posted on 12-10-2021 11:09
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The worse I get the higher you rank my team it seems 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 12-10-2021 11:14
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Tour de France Champion
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It's true, we do have three strong leaders! .... and nothing else. I appreciate the Promotion suggestion but like last season we'll be a big over-estimation 
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| knockout |
Posted on 12-10-2021 11:30
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Grand Tour Champion
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Yay, the random number prediction is back 
The terrain overview is nice though. Cool to see that you rate the three Evonik sales top 2 each. Hope you are right about that! 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| liefwarrior |
Posted on 12-10-2021 11:37
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Clearly the most accurate prediction out there! |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 12-10-2021 12:18
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Red - Looking back now, I probably overrated Alarcon as you said. So assume you would drop a bit in the rankings 
TMM - You had the same thing last year. Ewan should improve though, as a lot of his competition went to the PT. Altur has more competition but no more Andorra domination.
knockout - Smart move to sell them to the PCT rather than your direct PT competition
liefwarrior - Thank you for the kind words, you have to be the first person ever to say something good about my predictions 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 12-10-2021 12:21
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Ollfardh wrote:
jandal - well deserved promotion there, and the perfect example of this method completely ovelrooking team depth!
Thanks As fun as it is to clown on this preview's placing of my team (and some others like Farfetch), I do seriously always enjoy the terrain overview stuff as knockout said. As much as contrarians like me can collect my hybrid riders and high RES surprises, the fans really want to see who's winning the big races And then I think of the ranking as a bit of fun at the end
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| ember |
Posted on 12-10-2021 13:01
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Nice work, Ollfardh!
It also highlights my team's potential weaknesses, as Kwiatkowski is my only "great" leader, having the potential to score big points. At the same time, the puncheur field is stacked this season, making Kwiatkowski and us vulnerable. |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 12-10-2021 13:20
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Interesting
I'd already be very happy staying in PCT so I could max my first batch of homegrown talents myself next year, but if I promote things would become even easier of course
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 12-10-2021 13:42
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Any prediction that names me in the top 10 is probably not one to take seriously, but I am happy to be proven wrong.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 12-10-2021 16:19
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Great stuff Ollfardh, very happy to be predicted in last place based on what happened to Xero last season
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 12-10-2021 17:04
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World Champion
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Jandal - Thanks, I guess it sets a good base to start for the Coconglomerate
Ember - Hills have become really tough this year, as well as cobbles where Anderberg coulf struggle as well. Galta looks pretty good though, he just fell short of the list but could score a lot.
Nemolito - You like a few others benefit heavily from your great team leaders. I also may have overrated Manninen based on his MG history, so I expect you to finish quite a bit lower, sorry
BBL - Your team is definitely competitive for the PCT, top 10 is not impossble if Trentin does well and a certain Danish rider won't let you down.
D2B - That's the spirit! I did not expect Kraftwerk to fall short of points here but somehow they did. Hoping you can do a Xero, but I think it will be hard.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
