G'day mates. Welcome to Tasmania, the island off the south coast of Australia for the eighth edition of its tour around this scenic part of the world. As always it's the penultimate race of the ProTour calendar, as last stage race before the riders head off to Lombardia. As such it can be a pretty important race for the rankings, with teams closely in contention for the title or fighting against relegation paying special attention to what's happening here. The joint-record holders are Jerome Coppel and Edvald Boasson Hagen, both having won this race twice and could potentially take their third this year. The winner of the most recent edition, Rein Taaramäe, has elected not to participate this year, as has 2014 winner Yuri Trofimov. The winner of the first edition, Tejay Van Garderen, can take his second win seven years after his first. Let's see who they stack up against!
Profiles
But first, the route. Being an expert on the local geography and having done the coverage for the previous two years, the race should bring a lot of action with three different type of stages: flat, hill, and time trial. However, all three stages have seen some change. The first stage sadly no longer takes the riders into Launceston, instead following the east coast of the island for what is expected to be a sprint. The second stage now starts in Penguin instead of finishing there, which means I can still post my link to the penguin statue there. This year the stage is a bit easier to mitigate the influence of pure climbers. The final stage is a time trial as traditional, but moved to the state capital of Hobart and flatter. The usual stuff from Tasmania, but slightly different.
Startlist
Sprinters
SP
ACC
FL
Sprinters
SP
ACC
FL
Coquard
84
83
73
Appollonio
81
78
74
Ahlstrand
83
82
74
Granjel Cabrera
79
75
74
Kennaugh
82
81
77
Contreras
78
80
72
Groenewegen
82
81
73
Liepins
78
79
73
Howard
82
79
76
Santos
78
78
76
Van der Lijke
82
79
73
Bouglas
78
78
72
Vanderbiest
82
77
74
Bauhaus
78
75
74
Moser
80
79
72
Ackermann
77
80
72
Petit
80
78
76
Markus
77
78
73
Van Asbroeck
80
78
75
Kuboki
77
77
73
Stage one is one for the sprinters. A breakaway or late attack is always possible, but then I'd had to name the entire startlist as contenders.
Coquard won the opening stage last year, which makes him the favorite again for this edition. He's not the only one to have won here, Kennaugh did it in 2015, and finished third last year.
Ahlstrand has never played a role in this race, but that is set to change. He has the best leadout in Appollonio and wants his name on the board.
Aegon is caught up in a battle against relegation, so they need a good performance from Groenewegen. Indosat's fate seems sealed, throwing all pressure off Vanderbiest.
Howard is the favorite for the people of Tasmania, who never got into the top ten despite four attempts. Van der Lijke's best result is fifteenth, also in need of an improvement.
The other favorites are Moser, Petit and Van Asbroeck.
Puncheurs
HL
MO
ACC
Climbers
MO
HL
ACC
Hagen
84
69
78
Phinney
85
77
75
Sagan
83
74
76
Pluchkin
84
74
73
Lutsenko
83
73
81
Keizer
81
71
73
Ponzi
83
72
79
Shikai
81
71
66
Kinoshita
83
72
77
Meintjes
80
78
69
Mohoric
83
71
77
Carapaz
80
71
65
Bobridge
83
69
80
Latour
79
75
74
Lopez
82
79
78
Puncheurs
HL
MO
ACC
Bakelants
82
73
75
Gastauer
81
70
75
Van Garderen
82
72
79
Betancourt
80
73
74
Kwiatkowski
81
78
75
Boswell
80
71
76
Koretzky
81
71
79
Vakoc
80
71
74
McCarthy
81
67
74
Vogt
80
62
63
Stage two is hilly, and definitely less mountainous than before. Nevertheless, both puncheurs and climbers appear at the start.
Hagen's two wins were due to his performance on this stage, gaining enough to remain ahead after the TT. Last year he was beaten to the punch by Ponzi, who couldn't convert a win here into the overall win.
For other stage winners we have to go further back into the history books. Bobridge won in 2016 but lost the GC to Coppel. Van Garderen won in 2013, the first ever edition, and did take the yellow jersey back home.
Mohoric is also a stage winner, but that was the flat stage in 2016 from a break. Kinoshita can't have won because he has never participated here before.
Previous results are no guarantee for the future, so not having them is not a problem. Neither Sagan nor Lutsenko appeared on a top step of the podium, but everything can change now.
Moving over to the climbers, where Phinney and Pluchkin are the top contenders. The former won two youth classifications in his younger days, but never the actual one. The latter has a wildcard so doesn't have to worry about ranking points.
Some riders are good at both the shorter and longer work, and favorites either way the stage plays out. Lopez and Kwiatkowski spring to mind, both slightly more adapted to the hills but can hold their ground in the mountains.
Other contenders include Bakelants, Koretzky, McCarthy and Gastauer on the puncheurs side, and Keizer, Shikai, Meintjes and Carapaz on the climbers side.
Time trialists
TT
HL
MO
Time trialists
TT
HL
MO
Phinney
83
77
85
Malori
79
68
61
Würtz
82
71
67
Kwok
79
62
54
Coppel
81
74
64
Haugard
79
60
57
Keizer
81
71
81
Dennis
78
75
74
Durbridge
81
67
58
Pluchkin
78
74
84
Vlatos
81
66
52
Wirtgen
78
74
76
Lammertink
80
69
64
Oliveira
78
73
74
Yatsevich
80
68
55
Goncalves
78
71
73
Sütterlin
80
65
59
Campenaerts
78
69
54
Dillier
80
64
51
Jungels
78
68
64
Brändle
79
71
76
Bobridge
77
83
69
Everything is decided on the final time trial. It's not very long but long enough to make the best ones get on top.
If Phinney doesn't win the previous stage he surely is favorite for this one, finish second on three occasions. Keizer is another one of those stage racers making the trip to Tasmania, and should do well.
It's hard to ignore three-time stage winner and two time overall winner Coppel though, whose skill in the hills and time trial brought him to that position. If not him, Durbridge can do the honors for cycleYorkshire.
Würtz is the new kid on the block, can he teach the old guys a lesson? Vlatos perhaps needs one, only finishing 31st last year.
Looking back to the last time trial, Lammertink took a tenth place, which Sütterlin occupied the year before. They might get around the same position again.
Yatsevich also doesn't have fond memories, finishing 32nd and 44th in the last two years. Dillier's record goes back to 2017 where he finished 31st.
Other riders who might be on form that day are Brändle, Malori, Kwok and Haugard.
Favorites
MO
HL
TT
Outsiders
MO
HL
TT
Phinney
85
77
83
Oliveira
74
73
78
Keizer
81
71
81
Sepulveda
75
77
75
Pluchkin
84
74
78
Stüssi
77
73
75
Bobridge
69
83
77
Dyball
76
73
75
Shikai
81
71
76
Gidich
75
78
73
Brändle
76
71
79
Goncalves
73
71
78
Coppel
64
74
81
Kwiatkowski
78
81
70
Hagen
69
84
71
Lutsenko
73
83
68
Wirtgen
76
74
78
Meintjes
80
78
71
Dennis
74
75
78
Powless
75
71
76
Goos
77
74
76
Prado
77
73
74
Lopez
79
82
71
Rosskopf
73
75
76
Würtz
67
71
82
Sagan
74
83
68
Carapaz
80
71
72
Tvetcov
77
75
74
Kangert
74
76
76
Van Garderen
72
82
69
Laengen
76
73
76
Zoidl
75
74
76
For the overall win, history has shown that quality in both climbing and time trialling is needed. Having only one trait is not enough. After years of studying and optimizing I have come to the following formula: (max (MO,HL) + TT) / 2. Groundbreaking, isn't it?
There is one who appears at the top of both lists, and that is Phinney. He might be the man to beat this race. Keizer is also a star in every facet and should hopefully give the American a run for his money.
Pluchkin finished third in the last edition, the highest of all participants, which shows he's got what it takes. Bobridge has two second places and two third places, can the Aussie finally achieve his lifelong dream of winning this race?
Shikai might be a bit overrated by the formula, assuming MO and HL are interchangeable while I'm leaning towards HL. Brändle shows you don't have to be the absolute best in any discipline as long as you master them all.
Maths brought Coppel and Hagen together. Two former winners though on opposite scales, the Frenchman is a star time trialist decent in the hills, the Norwegian is a star puncheur and decent against the clock.
Wirtgen is the favorite for the youth classification, which he already won last year, but also a serious contender in the full classification. Dennis is Bobridge but worse on the hills, though that shouldn't disqualify him immediately.
The second-highest returning customer is Goos, finishing seventh a year ago. Lopez has never participated here in his prime but should have the minerals for a good result.
Würtz requires the second stage to be ridden passively in order to hit back with his time trials. Carapaz on the other hand needs to turn hills into mountains.
Kangert scored a podium in 2018. Laengen scored a thirteenth place last year but did finish two places ahead of the Estonian. Who will have the better result this year?
Oliveira, Sepulveda and Stüssi have the same score as the three riders before but are relegated to the second column. Just a mention to make them happy.
I'll stop before I have to go over every rider's career, let's enjoy the 2020 edition of the Tour of Tasmania!
None of our riders can compete with the favorites, but we do have a bunch of guys who can ride a decent GC if they manage to hang on long enough in the hills. Fingers crossed.
This has been a terrible race for Evonik over the years. Lopez might be the best leader we have ever had for this sort of profile but after the Japan failure, we probably need to finish this race on the podium and ahead of Phinney to get anything close to something out of this which is rather unlikely considering the track record of similar riders such as Taaramae or even Coppel over the years...
We hope for a good TT and that Stake and Würtz can do something in the GC. Would have liked a bit longer TT, but should still be possible to get some good results.
Last race of the season for Coquard who is 35 points short of our expectations to him, and 143 points behind last seasons tally (where he did have a better PTHC band though). A top 2 from him on the first stage would secure that we performs according to plan.
Koretzky is always well ahead by 80 points, but a good finish here could see him get above 100 points, which would be very solid!
Vlatos too is very much over the balance, and while he can't get a good GC, he might be able to snatch a couple of stage points if he isn't too battered after the hilly stage.
Zoidl and Ioannidis might be the guys to look out for from us - not favorites or outsiders by any means, but both could land a reasonable result. Ioannidis is 37 points behind expectations, and Zoidl 44. Could they make that half as much it would have been a great race for them.
Phinney is obviously the man to beat - I didn't think he had the racedays to participate here, but clearly he did. No chance in hell, anyone but Isostar can take the PT crown now. It's just a matter of how big ar margin. Congrats in advance albeit with fingers crossed no bad things happen!
Go Festina - Get out, ride aggressively and help us get that PT top 5.
Fingers crossed the hilly stage proves selective, and also that Kwiatkowski is up for the task. If so, a top 5 could be possible, if not, our goal has to be a top 10, I think.
I'm quite happy that we have 450 points on Festina and 550 on Moser at this point, as we'd need a very specific race outcome to see Stüssi or Vasyliv score any meaningful points.
Stüssi also has the disadvantage of 69PRL which might hurt his 75TT slightly on a 20km route.
Mental note for next season, maybe Cavagna would've enjoyed giving this race a try considering his form in ToNE, stage 2 might not be something for the climbers and his flat stat would've helped him save energy as well.
We do have Ganna here though who is a lesser Cavagna at this point, but expecting him to survive S2 is a long shot at best. Maybe the U25 competition is light enough to grab a couple of points there.
Sütterlin in the last TT of the season would be very welcome to repeat his first TT of the season which he won in Qatar, particularly as his recent stretch of races has been subpar. He needs to prove why I should keep him around once Ganna demands a bigger wage.
Phinney should win this, which I would assume pushes him past Herklotz for the Individual Rankings title if he's not already in front anyway, it's been ages since the last update.
Are you f***ing kidding me. Honestly I'm very happy for Evonik for the big surprise win. But at the same time I'm really mad that we throw it here, and a guy like Riesebeek could hang on for the overall win if I remember his stats correctly. So ffs guys, now make the GC stage as hard as possible.
Cool to see us trying to split it up. Stake Laengen lost time, but other than that, a very good result for us. Hopefully Würtz and Cosnefroy can limit their losses tomorrow and I'm guessing the positive is that Stake Laengen will have his wage reduced next season
Reading the report, i was cursing about entirely missing out on echelons the one time all season long that they actually happen, totally not realizing that this had the potential to benefit Riesebeek tremendously
A stage win and at least a day in yellow, polkadot and green is amazing already. He will for sure lose polkadot tomorrow but might have a good shot at green already due to that stage and winning both bonus sprints. If he can somehow stay up in the GC that could be an absolute game changer for Evonik.
Croatia14 wrote:
a guy like Riesebeek could hang on for the overall win if I remember his stats correctly. So ffs guys, now make the GC stage as hard as possible.
Totally feel with you, PCM decided to be as cruel as possible for the season finale.
74 FL, 70 MO, 73 HI, 75 RES, 67 TT
Based on the Giro and other races this season, i actually have some hope that he can survive the hilly stage somewhat too. Should there be no gaps at all tomorrow, Goldstein would be the heavy favourite as clearly the best TTer from that group (75TT) but he only has 64/65 MO/HI so rather unlikely to survive the day. Riesebeek should be the best puncheur from this group. But he will also lose 2min in the TT, maybe more. So we'll see.
Hopefully, Lopez will finally find success slaving himself for someone else
If Ganna had been able to make that group and Riesebeek hadn't, that would've given us a rather unexpected shot at second place after all!
Assuming third place is our destiny now regardless, maybe it's for the better that Ganna isn't on track to score massively here and get cocky during renewals.
He still made the first chasing group though alongside Vasyliv, who both need a wildly different stage 2 to take something from this race.
An optimist would say we have both extremes covered, I would say this will leave us nowhere when it turns out to be the middle ground.
Stüssi was by far not the biggest name to miss out in that frenzy, so I'm not disappointed.
On the other hand, Bevin keeps on being valuable in a quiet way, and obviously Yikui Niu makes all sorts of selections that I don't expect him to!
Tour of Tasmania 
It has instantly become a must-see on my bucket list.
