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Tour of Japan Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 07-03-2021 02:34
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Directeur Sportif
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 Tour of Japan
Welcome to the Japan for 1 of 2 races that take place in the Land of the Rising Sun: the C1-level Tour of Japan. This year’s parcours is virtually the same as last year, with just a few adjustments to the finishes, except for the perhaps significant reduction of Stage 5’s final climb by about 3km. This might open the door to the punchier riders. Stage 4 remains a brutal 11.8 km slog up Mount Fuji. Stage 2 and 4 are circuit races each featuring multiple ascents of a short climb, although Stage 2 is still rated flat so might go to the sprinters. Stage 1 is a prologue and Stage 6 is for the sprinters.
Xero Racing is back with a strong team behind last year’s winner  Bennett. His teammate, emerging star, Areruya will be a key helper and will also be looking for his own opportunity. Last year’s 4th place,  Pomoshnikov is also back as is the man who won the Mt. Fuji TT -  Krasnoperov (although he has switched teams to Nordica and at 33 may have lost a step).
But repeat performances will be difficult for those riders as some of the big boys of PCT stage racing are here this year in  Monsalve (3rd in 2018),  Kudus (4th and White Jersey in 2017) and  Wellens
The full list of the major climbers are:
| MT | HI | RS | AC | RC | | Kudus | 82 | 77 | 77 | 70 | 79 | | Wellens | 82 | 75 | 80 | 68 | 76 | | Monsalve | 81 | 76 | 80 | 73 | 77 | | Bennett | 81 | 76 | 74 | 73 | 79 |  Padun | 80 | 77 | 74 | 75 | 76 |  Yates | 79 | 76 | 80 | 76 | 76 | | Pomoshnikov | 79 | 74 | 76 | 66 | 74 | | Krasnoperov | 79 | 67 | 68 | 60 | 72 |  Frankiny | 78 | 76 | 75 | 75 | 77 |  Konig | 78 | 74 | 74 | 65 | 70 |  Atapuma | 78 | 73 | 72 | 73 | 68 |  Diaz | 78 | 70 | 73 | 68 | 71 |  Nazaret | 78 | 69 | 75 | 69 | 70 |  Ablenado | 78 | 67 | 77 | 65 | 77 |  Suaza | 78 | 63 | 73 | 76 | 62 |
Kudus looks like a good bet to add a Tour of Japan Yellow jersey to the White one he has at home but the top 6 are all close together. Some of the climbers down the list are likely to suffer on the hilly stages.
With the shorter climb at the end of S5, there are 2 stages that favor the punchier riders. Although stage 3 doesn’t finish on a climb, a small group sprint seems likely. Top puncheurs not listed above include:
| MT | HI | RS | AC | RC | | Ginanni | 66 | 79 | 72 | 68 | 67 | | Anuar Aziz | 65 | 78 | 68 | 66 | 66 | | Areruya | 77 | 77 | 77 | 74 | 77 | | Squire | 77 | 77 | 70 | 71 | 76 | | Poljanski | 77 | 77 | 70 | 71 | 76 | | Guerreiro | 76 | 77 | 73 | 72 | 77 | | Paulus | 74 | 77 | 68 | 71 | 73 |  Zordan | 73 | 77 | 72 | 74 | 70 | | Le Gac | 69 | 77 | 74 | 69 | 71 | | Ackermann | 65 | 77 | 71 | 80 | 79 | | Pellaud | 65 | 77 | 68 | 70 | 71 |
Ginanni is the best hill rider but his secondary stats are not that the great, ditto for Anuar Aziz. But Areruya, Squire, Poljanski and Guerreiro are all more well-rounded and have a good chance to score in the GC if they survive the TT and challenge on the hilly stages.
Ackermann is a strong sprinter who will fancy stages 2 and 3 with their tough parcours.
For the sprinters stage 2 is technically a flat stage but they will need to survive some climbs while stage 6 holds promise for a pure sprinters ride, In addition to Ackermann we have:
| FL | SP | AC | HI | RS | | Kemboi | 78 | 80 | 80 | 63 | 77 | | Drapac | 71 | 80 | 79 | 53 | 65 | | Boivin | 74 | 79 | 80 | 70 | 70 | | Coutinho | 72 | 79 | 80 | 65 | 74 | | Yamamoto | 72 | 78 | 78 | 65 | 67 | | Young | 74 | 78 | 77 | 69 | 70 | | Ackermann | 72 | 77 | 80 | 77 | 71 | | Barbier | 75 | 77 | 79 | 67 | 71 | | Tivani | 70 | 77 | 78 | 66 | 78 | | Lovassy | 68 | 77 | 77 | 64 | 68 |
Kemboi the strongest sprinter here and while he isn’t great going uphill his secondary stats might keep in the fight during Stage 3 and should put him in good stead on Stage 2. Drapac the is the next best sprinter but his secondary stats mean reaching the finish in stages other than Stage 6 will be tough. Guave bring a full sprint train and Barbier joins Boivin, Ackermann and Young as the sprinters more likely to survive the hills.
For the sprinters who also ride a good short time trial Stage 1 offers promise, but only Kemboi fit that bill here. The strong prologue riders include:
| PR | RS | | Kemboi | 81 | 77 | | Gonzalez Salas | 80 | 76 | | Mottin | 79 | 74 | | Golovash | 78 | 69 | | Van Niekerk | 77 | 75 | | Hussein | 77 | 69 | | Verona | 77 | 75 | | Marchewka | 77 | 75 |
Kemboi will be the favorite here as well.
Overall, 125 riders from 16 teams will take to the start line.
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 07-03-2021 09:24
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Small Tour Specialist
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Was hoping Kudus and Wellens wouldn't be here, but hopefully we can challenge for the win either way. Need things to go our way in the MTT, as I don't think we'll pick up much points on the other stages.
Looking forward to the reports! 
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 07-03-2021 10:10
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Go Xero!
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 07-03-2021 16:44
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Hopefully Frankiny can have a strong race here, feels like we need a good result from him
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| redordead |
Posted on 07-03-2021 17:49
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Ablenado and Nepomnyachsniy will be up against it as the startlist is very strong. Apart from that we don't really have much else to offer, so getting in breakaways would at least make this race a bit more fun.
Can Mottin finally score a point from a TT stage?? Yeah, right 
Thanks for the preview Ulrich
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 08-03-2021 07:34
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Top 2 or this will be a waste of RDs
Let's go, good start with the TT
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| jph27 |
Posted on 08-03-2021 07:48
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I know prologues are meant to be unpredictable, but Kemboi outside the top 20 when there's only 4 riders within 3 prologue stats of him seems a bit too random. Figueiredo in 4th means we got the worst case scenario points for Kemboi, but it'll probably cost him a shot at the points classification now. |
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Posted on 25-11-2024 03:16
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| redordead |
Posted on 08-03-2021 08:12
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I agree with jph here. We have 70 riders within 5 seconds and a lot of them have an average PRL stat. This prologue is simply too random and I think it's because it's less than 3 km long. There have been many other prologues this season and none of them produced this disaster. But all have been 4-5 km long.
FYI, this has nothing to do with Mottin. He's been horrible all season long and I never expected him to do well despite having the 3rd best PRL stat here.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 08-03-2021 08:24
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Good start for Monsalve. Cool to see Stork high on the result list as well
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 08-03-2021 10:53
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That's a fantastic start. Someone in my team that isn't Zmorka delivering in a TT is a new thing, well apart from Dunbar who has been great all season, not just in TTs.
Kudus will a great start too. We need to win the race to make this trip worthwhile after the Cyprus disaster
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 08-03-2021 12:32
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Did not expect Diaz and Faiers to do anything remotely as good as this on the prologue  But I think I agree with Jph we probably should look at slightly longer prologues in the future to ensure that PRL isn't a useless stat.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 08-03-2021 12:51
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Alright, an interesting start. The main goal is to collect as much points as possible from this race
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 08-03-2021 13:22
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Weak Europcar start as expected.
I guess this puts us in a position to jump in some breakaways. The real fun should start from now on. |
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 09-03-2021 01:51
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Directeur Sportif
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Absolutely agree on the prologue. Too short to differentiate. Also annoyinig to report because the fact the in game times and results order are different becomes a big issue. The rider who was first in the game wasn't on the podium in the standings, had to go back and adjust the report a whole bunch
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| redordead |
Posted on 09-03-2021 06:23
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We finally make it in a breakaway, but we send the worst rider
Congrats Guave
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| SotD |
Posted on 09-03-2021 07:33
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Absolutely brilliant to see my two loan-outs (Vila and Lafay) making double-trouble here allowing Vila to take up 3 jerseys on stage 2. That was really some interesting work, and I can't wait to get those back from loan to see if they can calibrate on higher level aswell
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 10-03-2021 05:45
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Good performance by Konig, but not anything spectacular. Honestly, I'm now content with Top 10 GC finishes since for me relagation is now almost inevitable
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| redordead |
Posted on 10-03-2021 06:40
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Zero pointer on the way.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 10-03-2021 08:57
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Obviously Yates is much better in a finish like this, but it's great to get those 12 bonus seconds. Dunbar still up there for U25, though Padun and Areruya will destroy him in the MTT. Very surprising to see Attila with his first great performance, finishing in the reduced front group and keeping a provisional 4th in the U25 and making us stay in the Teams lead so far
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 10-03-2021 09:59
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We were a bit on the defensive there, but no time lost in the end and that's what matters. Don't like Kudus getting bonus seconds, though. Next stage will be interesting!
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