PCM.daily banner
14-04-2021 18:37
PCM.daily
Users Online
· Guests Online: 27

· Members Online: 2
Michael92, numa59

· Total Members: 146,547
· Newest Member: jointshield
Donate
View Thread
PCM.daily » PCM Stories & Story Games » Story Games
 Print Thread
ICL20 - Previews & Statistics
Bikex
ICL20 - Previews & Statistics


This thread will be used to post and discuss Season and Monthly Previews, just like last season. The monthly rankings will be posted in a separate thread.

First up, it's time for the Season Previews. Feel free to post any WT and/or CT previews that you may have or intend to come up with in this thread.

Based on a points system there will be a small amount of money awarded for the next season. A maximum of 10 points can be reached. One point will give a budget bonus of 20 in the next season. Each update in the teams thread will give a point. There won't be long essays required, a short update with a few sentences containing the latest results, the upcoming races, a new signed rider or anything noteworthy would be enough. Also considered for this will be posts in this Previews&Statistics thread. A season preview can even give several points: Detailed Season Preview (4 pts), Numbers based Preview (3 pts)
You can also look at the monthly previews done by dominox in the 2018 teams thread, these would be exactly what we are looking for.


Thanks Abhishek & Croatia for the intro! Smile
 
Ripley
WT WAVG9 2020


WAVG 20WAVG 19WT 19WAVG9Gap
111Grupo Argos - Quala79.200.42
224Allianz - BMW Cycling Team78.780.27
3New-Ceramica Panaria78.510.05
465Alitalia78.460.00
5117Team BP78.460.03
6812Filliers - Mora 78.430.09
7New-KBC Godiva78.340.06
853Italo78.280.07
9136Liberty Seguros78.210.07
10119Suntory Lucozade Sport78.140.02
111013Baku Synergy Plus78.120.01
121214Deutsche Bahn78.110.13
13310Équipe Cycliste Peugeot77.980.21
141411Sevilla Cycling Team77.770.18
151517CCC Sprandi Polkowice77.590.07
161716Credit Suisse77.520.44
17New-Santos Euskadi77.080.82
18New-Vegeta Cycling Team76.27

Full breakdown:
Spoiler
123456789WAVG9
Grupo Argos - Quala79.979.979.779.678.978.876.976.776.479.20
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team81.280.079.778.576.976.376.175.975.878.78
Ceramica Panaria81.780.977.977.676.676.275.375.375.378.51
Alitalia79.579.379.078.377.777.177.176.776.378.46
Team BP80.880.180.076.776.476.376.176.074.978.46
Filliers - Mora 81.080.477.877.377.376.376.376.076.078.43
KBC Godiva81.880.477.677.576.876.774.774.274.278.34
Italo80.179.278.377.477.377.277.176.476.278.28
Liberty Seguros81.479.578.776.976.476.076.075.074.778.21
Suntory Lucozade Sport81.978.377.977.676.776.175.775.775.578.14
Baku Synergy Plus78.978.678.578.278.076.976.776.776.678.12
Deutsche Bahn80.079.277.777.677.577.276.175.875.778.11
Équipe Cycliste Peugeot80.179.078.876.776.476.376.276.276.177.98
Sevilla Cycling Team80.578.877.076.976.676.376.276.075.677.77
CCC Sprandi Polkowice79.978.678.277.776.275.275.074.674.177.59
Credit Suisse79.777.877.676.876.676.576.475.775.377.52
Santos Euskadi77.977.577.277.276.776.376.076.075.377.08
Vegeta Cycling Team76.776.676.676.576.375.475.275.075.076.27

How to interpret: The formula weighs the AVGs of the top 9 riders per team, so the top rider's AVG carries 9 times the weight of the 9th rider. Column WAVG 20 shows the ranking with this formula, WAVG 19 shows what the formula predicted last season and WT 19 shows the actual WT ranking from last season.

Last year the formula seriously underestimated Liberty Seguros and overestimated Peugeot, so it's far from perfect. But in 2020 it predicts Grupo Argos to defend its title, despite losing Quintana the team has a decent advantage over Allianz. The gaps between the teams starting with Ceramica are tiny. They grow a little larger in the lower half of the table, but only two teams lag behind, Santos and Vegeta.

So while these two returning teams are predicted to relegate again, the other two newcomers, Ceramica and KBC, seem to be in much more comfortable positions. Alitalia will fight for the podium, Filiers disappointed last season but the prediction is even better this year, while Italo dropped back. However, the team will beat the prediction again thanks to its depth, 16 riders with an AVG of 75.7+, no other team comes close.

The formula rates BP and Liberty Seguros better, Peugeot clearly lower than last season, the other teams remain pretty much where they were a year ago. CCC and Credit Suisse seem to be fighting for the last spot for survival, but both teams have clearly improved and a very close to the rest of the field.

Here's a comparison of the WAVG9s for the seasons 2018 to 2020. The top 3 teams haven't changed much, but the rest of the field has continuously improved.

201820192020
WAVGWAVGWAVG
79.1379.2479.20
79.0378.7878.78
78.6278.6078.51
77.8978.4178.46
77.8978.3778.46
77.8678.1878.43
77.8478.0978.34
77.7178.0578.28
77.7078.0378.21
77.6677.8978.14
77.6677.6478.12
77.5077.6378.11
77.3877.6377.98
77.1377.5577.77
76.8877.3077.59
76.7676.9077.52
76.7276.7477.08
76.7276.5776.27

i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Ripley
ICL WT 2020 Preview

This year I'll do the very shortest but hopefully still informative preview with a quick look at every team. I recorded the most important signings and departures (I'm sure I missed a few), the stars and prospects and any other information I found worth noting, followed by the stats of the best riders in every terrain.


Alitalia

Signings: Goos, Sergent, Dennis
Departures:
Stars: Demare, Malori, Ludvigsson, Adam Yates
Prospects:

MON797777767573
HIL777676767575
COB767474737372
SPR817775747473
TT807877777675

Allianz

Signings:
Departures:
Stars: Barguil, Pinot, Coquard, Kristoff
Prospects: Alemayo
Other: 6 riders with AVG 68.4 or lower

MON817978767675
HIL797875757574
COB787575757472
SPR807878757371
TT757473737272

Baku

Signings: Nizzolo
Departures: Slagter
Stars: Mollema, Duimoulin, Boswell
Prospects: Shafeek

MON797877757574
HIL797877777575
COB787674747473
SPR807776767574
TT807873737373

CCC

Signings: Ewan
Departures: Craddock, Chamorro, Anacona
Stars: Van Garderen, Komisarek, Ulissi
Prospects:

MON797675757473
HIL787876747474
COB747474727271
SPR807975737270
TT797574737373

Ceramica

Signings: Kwiatkowski, Tony Martin
Departures:
Stars: Aru, Van Asbroeck, Battaglin
Prospects: Torres

MON827877767575
HIL818077757574
COB797575747373
SPR767574737271
TT777676767473

Credit Suisse

Signings: Jungels
Departures: Dilier
Stars: Villella, Caruso
Prospects:

MON787877767574
HIL807676767575
COB747372706868
SPR787775757373
TT787473737272

Deutsche Bahn

Signings: Craddock, Ghyselinck
Departures: Palini
Stars: Degenkolb, Simon Yates
Prospects:

MON787676757575
HIL797676757575
COB797775737272
SPR797877767575
TT787674747372

Peugeot

Signings: Moser
Departures: Dan Martin
Stars: Bouhanni, Vanmarcke
Prospects:
Other: No rider under 25

MON777776757472
HIL797776767674
COB807575747373
SPR817876767573
TT777676757472

Filiers

Signings:
Departures: Goos
Stars: Van Keirsbulck, Van Poppel
Prospects: Pizarro, Dumont
Other: Extremely young team

MON777676767574
HIL797777767574
COB807876767573
SPR817575747270
TT777474737373

Grupo Argos

Signings: Gesink
Departures: Quintana, Van Avermaet
Stars: Durbridge, Polanc, Kelderman, Mohoric
Prospects: Boileau, Chaix, Garcia, Buchko
Other: 13 riders with pot 7

MON807978767676
HIL797977777675
COB767373727272
SPR797575747373
TT818078777676

Italo

Signings: Spagnoli
Departures: Greipel, Rosa
Stars: Nibali, Lutsenko, Pintzopoulos
Prospects: Martinez
Other: 16 riders with AVG 75.7+

MON817877767673
HIL797877767675
COB797774747474
SPR787776767575
TT787676757574

KBC

Signings: Quintana, Kittel, Sanz
Departures:
Stars: Quintana, Kittel
Prospects: Provost

MON827774737272
HIL807776747474
COB747472727171
SPR817774727171
TT797774747472

Liberty Seguros

Signings:
Departures: Romero, Bilbao
Stars: Herrada, Betancur, Van der Poel
Prospects: Pulido, Garau

MON827977767676
HIL807978757575
COB747271717069
SPR767573727272
TT787877757574

Santos

Signings: Peiffer, Geissler
Departures:
Stars: Wackermann, Ospina
Prospects: Albini

MON787877767373
HIL787676767675
COB747373737272
SPR787775747272
TT747373707070

Sevilla

Signings: Edmondson, Beckeringh, Kozhatayev
Departures: Pibernik
Stars: Contador, Elissonde
Prospects:
Other: 19 riders with MON 74+

MON817977777777
HIL787776767575
COB706767666565
SPR747371686868
TT777575747474

Suntory

Signings: Eisaks
Departures: Cavendish, Zabel
Stars: Bardet, Pedersen
Prospects: Crochet, Nakano, Meyer

MON827876767575
HIL817676757474
COB797574747472
SPR787574747272
TT787675757474

Team BP

Signings: Sagan, Cavendish, Arndt
Departures: Thomas, Fuglsang, Schorn
Stars: Majka, Sagan, Cavendish
Prospects:

MON817777757474
HIL797775757373
COB777776737271
SPR817877757272
TT777474737373

Vegeta

Signings: KĂĽng
Departures:
Stars:
Prospects:
Other: 31 riders

MON777777767675
HIL757575747474
COB757371717068
SPR757574737372
TT787776747373

i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Bikex
Thanks Ripley! Good to get some overview over the different teams. Being rated last of the Italian teams is surprising. Didn't realize Alitalia was so strong by now.
I think the WAVG rates the teams quite well, but of course factors like the PCM randomness and race planning can't be taken into account, which explains the few bigger variations from it I guess.
Vegeta doesn't come of well here but with their depth I don't think they should be completely counted off.
Edited by Bikex on 16-02-2021 10:11
 
Ad Bot
Posted on 14-04-2021 18:37
Bot Agent

Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09

IP: None  
Ripley
If I did a WAVG16 your team would look a lot better, but at least I mentioned Italo's amazing depth. The gaps are smaller than last season, so I don't have much confidence in the prediction. All teams have done their homework, it's going to be an exciting season.
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
DaveTwoBob
DAVETWOBOBS ICL20 PREVIEW using SUSPECT MODELLING


DaveTwoBob has created a model to analyse the WT, CT and U23 teams to come up with a prediction. The model is obviously suspect as it predicts Suntory will not retain the U23 title! Seriously the model has loads of flaws and any similarity between these predictions and real life are purely coincidental Smile


WORLD TOUR


The WT division looks very close with the top 9 teams within 9% of the leading score (and the margin for error in this model is almost certainly higher than that!)

Allianz - BMW Cycling Team come out on top due to second place in Mountains and third in Sprints. Ceramica Panaria - Autogrill – Cipollini are second, they have the best Hills, second Mountains and decent Cobbles. The podium is rounded out by Italo who are decent in all 5 terrains.


The Team Score and the “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table.

TeamScoreMOHILTTCOBSPDiff%
1Allianz - BMW Cycling Team2401281793
2Ceramica Panaria - Autogrill - Cipollini23952111515-60%
3Italo2333657310-68-3%
4Suntory Lucozade Sport2284448614-117-5%
5Grupo Argos - Quala22736311113-128-5%
6Liberty Seguros22721241716-129-5%
7Baku Synergy Plus2232105387-169-7%
8KBC Godiva2223855136-178-7%
9Team BP21928121561-209-9%
10Alitalia192711172105-474-20%
11Équipe Cycliste Peugeot191817111132-483-20%
12CCC Sprandi Polkowice185014128124-551-23%
13Deutsche Bahn182715141027-574-24%
14Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team17691881519-632-26%
15Credit Suisse1736128141611-665-28%
16Sevilla Cycling Team1620415131818-781-33%
17Santos - Euskadi15011216181511-900-37%
18Vegeta Cycling Team1318151861317-1083-45%



WT Team Top Rider per Terrain


TeamMOHILTTCOBSP
Allianz - BMW Cycling TeamWarren BarguilWarren BarguilThibaut PinotAlexander KristoffBryan Coquard
Ceramica Panaria - Autogrill - CipolliniFabio AruMichał KwiatkowskiMichał KwiatkowskiTom Van AsbroeckTom Van Asbroeck
ItaloVincenzo NibaliAlexey LutsenkoMiguel MartĂ­nezMarkos PintzopoulosFulvio Spagnoli
Suntory Lucozade SportRomain BardetRomain BardetMichael HepburnJuris EisaksMads Pedersen
Grupo Argos - QualaJan PolancJan PolancLuke DurbridgeKenneth VanbilsenJulian Alaphilippe
Liberty SegurosJesĂşs HerradaJesĂşs HerradaJesĂşs HerradaWillem HoflandYoeri Havik
Baku Synergy PlusIan BoswellBauke MollemaTom DumoulinDaniel OssGiacomo Nizzolo
KBC GodivaNairo QuintanaNairo QuintanaRyan MullenMichael VanthourenhoutMarcel Kittel
Team BPRafal MajkaRafal MajkaRafal MajkaIan StannardMark Cavendish
AlitaliaAdam YatesQuentin JaureguiAdriano MaloriSean De BieArnaud Demare
Équipe Cycliste PeugeotAlexandre GeniezMoreno MoserJasha SütterlinSep VanmarckeNacer Bouhanni
CCC Sprandi PolkowiceTejay Van GarderenTejay Van GarderenTejay Van GarderenPatryk KomisarekPatryk Komisarek
Deutsche BahnJoseph DombrowskiSimon YatesLawson CraddockJohn DegenkolbJohn Degenkolb
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling TeamTim WellensGuillaume Van KeirsbulckMathias KrigbaumGuillaume Van KeirsbulckDanny Van Poppel
Credit SuisseDavide VillellaDavide VillellaBob JungelsSalvatore PuccioFabio Silvestre
Sevilla Cycling TeamAlberto ContadorAlberto ContadorAlberto ContadorAhmet Ă–rkenRaymundo Alday
Santos - EuskadiJonathan PeifferLuca WackermannScott DaviesMousin VerkuylDavide Appollonio
Vegeta Cycling TeamGeorge PreidlerGeorge PreidlerStefan KüngJosip RumacMárton Farkas



METHODOLOGY


The methodology uses a combination of the absolute quality of the top 3 riders on each terrain plus the relative ranking of each key stat to generate a total team score.

The relative Terrain weightings were calculated from the ICL19 points earned by riders based on their highest primary stat. I did try using a secondary stat but this was heavily skewed to HIL so eventually I ignored it.

General Steps (some details left out)
1. Select the top 3 riders in each team over 5 stats MO, HIL, TT, COB and SP.
2. For each one of the Primary Stats
3. Apply factors of 3,2 and 1 to the stats of the top 3 riders and sum the results to get a Rider Score.
4. Rank the results
5. Multiply Team Count +1 minus Rank (e.g. WT Rank 1 gets 18) with a Terrain Weighting (e.g. MO is higher than TT) to give a Stat Score
6. Add the 5 Stat Scores and the Rider Scores to get a Team Score

The model ignores Depth Scoring, Stage Racing, Classics, TTT, U25, Race Days, Backup Stats and Planning Choices. Possible improvements for next season.

Edited by DaveTwoBob on 16-02-2021 22:20
Manager of Suntory [ICL]
Manager of Kraftwerk Man Machine [Man Game]
 
Ripley
Excellent, very informative, shows the strengths and weaknesses of each team. Like Filiers #1 in COB and #18 in MON, Liberty #1 in MON, #17 in COB. Really weird to see my team rated #1 in SPR, as anybody who read my stories knows I really don't care much for sprinters. Smile
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
OZrocker
Excellent previews so far! I will be amazed if we finish higher than BP or Filiers, but it's nice to know I might have actually improved the team this season Pfft

When I find the time, I'll be posting a breakdown of riders WT points last year, along with a nationality breakdown of each team.
 
AbhishekLFC
Great previews Ripley and D2B Smile

We're around where we expect to be, not having been able to improve our team much in the off-season. Hoping our leaders deliver!
 
Ripley
CT WAVG6 2020


WAVG20WAVG19PR19WAVGGap
11813Brugse Zot - Trek77.730.28
2410Equinor Pro Cycling77.450.01
3314Shell Pro Cycling77.440.31
4109Bosch Cycling Team77.130.01
5912Team Cymru Wales77.120.04
6NewMagnum Madshuis77.080.17
7NewTrans Cycling76.910.22
81416Polestar ProCycling76.700.01
9NewGuinness Cycling76.690.12
10NewMillenium LATAM76.570.15
11NewVIP Mobile76.420.02
12167Pedal Africa for Qhubeka76.400.02
13NewVisitUkraine76.380.03
14NewStrava Avanti76.350.00
15NewEducation First76.340.20
16NewTierra del Fuego76.140.13
17Nordea Bank – SAP76.010.27
18NewLatvijas Balzams75.740.11
192218ICBC Cycling Team75.63

Full breakdown:
Spoiler
123456WAVG
Brugse Zot - Trek79.877.476.876.676.676.377.73
Equinor Pro Cycling79.177.376.976.476.376.077.45
Shell Pro Cycling78.077.977.877.176.174.177.44
Bosch Cycling Team80.476.476.375.774.474.377.13
Team Cymru Wales78.877.176.675.975.775.777.12
Magnum Madshuis79.076.776.276.176.175.977.08
Trans Cycling77.777.577.176.275.373.976.91
Polestar ProCycling77.576.776.476.276.075.976.70
Guinness Cycling77.577.076.576.175.475.376.69
Millenium LATAM77.477.076.776.074.774.376.57
VIP Mobile79.975.974.774.674.574.376.42
Pedal Africa for Qhubeka76.976.776.575.775.575.376.40
VisitUkraine76.976.776.375.875.575.476.38
Strava Avanti77.677.375.275.175.174.976.35
Education First77.476.376.275.675.375.176.34
Tierra del Fuego76.676.475.875.775.775.776.14
Nordea Bank – SAP76.576.175.775.775.775.476.01
Latvijas Balzams76.276.175.375.375.375.175.74
ICBC Cycling Team75.975.775.575.475.475.375.63

How it works: The formula weighs the AVGs of the top 6 riders per team, the top rider's AVG carries 6 times the weight of the 6th rider.

If the formula could be trusted we'd have three clear promotion candidates. However, the formula predicted Shell and Equinor to do well last season and they couldn't live up to their expectations. Shell might suffer the same fate again, they have four strong riders, but two of them are pure climbers and the other two sprinters, they would have to achieve optimal results to make up for the lack of depth scoring. While Equinor traditionally focus on sprints, which leads to stage wins, but usually not enough points.

I agree with my formula about Brugse Zot, they are promotion candidate number 1. Bosch with their superstar Herklotz are also clear contenders. The formula works best with “balanced” teams and will underestimate Bosch as well as Senechal's VIP Mobile. Two newcomers could also be in the race for promotion, Magnum Madshuis built a good team around Nerz, while Trans Cycling has a few old captains who cover nearly all terrains.

Polestar is set to improve this season and Pedal Africa may well beat the formula's prediction again, there's a lot of potential in this all-African team and I'm sure it will make the WT in a few seasons. VisitUkraine faced a brutal budget cut after a terrible season ending in relegation and the formula only ranks them 13th. But the gaps are very small. For all teams a lot will depend on planning and luck, as always.

I compiled a comparison of the WASVGs from 2018 to 2020. Lucky that I started in 2018, with a WAVG of 76.27 my team was 5th in the ranking, finished 3rd and promoted. The same team would only rank 16th this season!

201820192020
WAVGWAVGWAVG
76.9878.0477.73
76.5177.3377.45
76.4977.1077.44
76.3877.1077.13
76.2776.9877.12
76.2676.8477.08
76.2176.7576.91
76.1776.7176.70
76.1076.7176.69
76.0876.4676.57
75.9076.4276.42
75.7476.3576.40
75.6576.0676.38
75.4476.0176.35
75.3976.0076.34
75.3975.9076.14
75.2575.8576.01
75.2075.8575.74
75.1675.7575.63

i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Ripley
ICL CT 2020 Preview

Here is a quick look at every team, the most important signings and departures, the stars and prospects and any other information I found worth noting, followed by the stats of the best riders in every terrain.


Bosch

Signings: Breuer
Departures: Kendler, Brus
Stars: Herklotz, Plarre, Auer
Prospects: Adams

MON797774747372
HIL777675737272
COB747373726969
SPR777575727170
TT757373717069

Brugse Zot

Signings: Phinney, Engeldinger, Talansky
Departures: Bille, Schleck
Stars: Phinney, Engeldinger, Talansky
Prospects: Nass

MON777774737171
HIL767575757574
COB797776767472
SPR787773717070
TT797573727170

Education First

New Team
Stars: Uran, Mannion, Kern
Prospects: Pizzi, Pauly

MON777776757575
HIL767675757373
COB757271696868
SPR767573737368
TT757473727269

Equinor

Signings: Laengen
Departures: Bennett
Stars: Guardini, Hoelgard, Zilioli
Prospects:

MON777771707070
HIL777575737372
COB747170706969
SPR807877777473
TT777675717069

Guinness

New Team
Stars: Dan Martin, Langlois, Bennett
Prospects: Saby

MON757574727269
HIL787473737373
COB767472727171
SPR787674717170
TT777573716969

ICBC

Signings: Nishimura, Tilegen
Departures:
Stars: Nur, Choi
Prospects: Huu

MON777676767675
HIL767575757575
COB707068676767
SPR757272727271
TT747473717168

Latvijas

New Team
Stars: Eijssen, Boeckmans
Prospects:

MON777676737372
HIL757575747373
COB747369696969
SPR767575747371
TT747473727272

Magnum

New Team
Stars: Nerz, Quuade, Van Avermaet
Prospects: Niemi

MON797674717168
HIL787777757572
COB777573727271
SPR777372727272
TT787575727272

Millenium

New Team
Stars: Boros, Figueiredo, Vakoc
Prospects: Coelho

MON777574737372
HIL777675747373
COB706967676666
SPR757373727170
TT777573717170

Nordea

New Team
Stars: Palini, Bilbao
Prospects: Egsvang

MON767473726969
HIL767574747271
COB767469696868
SPR787676757473
TT777674727271

Pedal Africa

Signings:
Departures:
Stars: Kudus, Berhane, Grmay
Prospects: Mwaanga, Lawal
Other: All African team

MON777776767675
HIL777575757474
COB726867676665
SPR767574716968
TT747271717070

Polestar

Signings: Slagter
Departures: Frank
Stars: Ludvigsson, Ahlstrand, Poels
Prospects:
Other: No rider under 26

MON777676767575
HIL767674747473
COB737270706969
SPR787675747371
TT797675757474

Shell

Signings:
Departures:
Stars: Landa, Atapuma, Blythe
Prospects:
Other: 17 riders aged 30+

MON797975716967
HIL767675747271
COB717070686767
SPR797875757271
TT747069686867

Strava

New Team
Stars: Howard, Flakemore
Prospects: Brick

MON767575757168
HIL747373737373
COB706967666666
SPR797675757474
TT797373706969

Cymru

Signings: Porte
Departures: Swift
Stars: Fenn, Rowe, McEvoy
Prospects:

MON767669686767
HIL747473737272
COB737070696968
SPR807877767676
TT767471676767

Tierra

New Team
Stars: Chamorro, Zabel
Prospects: Huaman, Gonzalez

MON787676757573
HIL757574747373
COB767270696968
SPR777570696968
TT767674747473

Trans Cycling

New Team
Stars: Serry, Thomas, Boasson Hagen
Prospects:

MON787574727171
HIL777575747272
COB777373737370
SPR777574747371
TT767574727270

VIP Mobile

New Team
Stars: Senechal
Prospects: Boothroyd, Maric
Other: Highest paid CT rider (Senechal)

MON767575747373
HIL747473737272
COB817575747069
SPR757574737170
TT737271706968

VisitUkraine

Signings:
Departures: Kreuziger, Boasson Hagen, Hirt
Stars: Tsatevich, König, Kovacic
Prospects: Ischenko

MON777575757474
HIL777575757373
COB737170706868
SPR787772706968
TT767675757574

i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
krisa
Pretty strange My team will get a podium spot after just coming from CT division. Seems like my planning worked on paper.
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/jerseydesigner.pngi.imgur.com/vR8EVAA.png
i.imgur.com/psfC63E.png
 
Nemolito
Magnum Madshus built a good team around Nerz,


Depends how you look at it I think, as Nerz will mainly be played out in mountain races despite having a high (the highest?) hill stat in the CT. Kreuziger will be his luxe domestique everywhere, but except for some focus races Rui Costa will take another path and be used in the hill stage races with TT's and a lot of hilly classics with either Van Avermaet or Valgren Andersen at his side. If this was a good choice remains left to be seen, but I feel confident that our Portuguese rider will be able to score a decent amount of points Smile
 
DaveTwoBob
DAVETWOBOBS ICL20 PREVIEW using SUSPECT MODELLING



CONTINENTAL TOUR



The model indicates four teams are fighting it out for the CT title. Magnum – Madshus are very narrow title favourites. Bosch Cycling Team, Shell Pro Cycling and Brugse Zot - Trek are in the mix for the title with Equinor Pro Cycling Team as outsiders.

However the model does not well handle single dominant riders who cover multiple terrains which means these results could be misleading e.g. Florian Senechal at VIP Mobile

The Team Score and the “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table.

TeamScoreMOHILTTCOBSPDiff%
1Magnum - Madshus2435312316
2Bosch Cycling Team24182212810-17-1%
3Brugse Zot - Trek2376412327-59-2%
4Shell Pro Cycling22931819153-142-6%
5Equinor Pro Cycling Team22051344111-230-9%
6Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor21028111127-333-14%
7Trans Cycling Team205711411411-378-16%
8Education First x Palace - Nippo19786814914-457-19%
9VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff19431347139-492-20%
10Tierra del Fuego19404168615-495-20%
11Pedal Africa for Qhubeka193864171613-497-20%
12Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry1887178855-548-23%
13Nordea Bank - SAP17571714565-678-28%
14Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm1754815151012-681-28%
15Millenium - LATAM Airlines172511381818-710-29%
16Team Cymru Wales1571171713142-864-35%
17Strava - Avanti154915196184-886-36%
18ICBC Cycling Team1540812151719-895-37%
19VIP Mobile1439151718116-996-41%



CT Team Top Rider per Terrain

TeamMOHILTTCOBSP
Magnum - MadshusDominik NerzDominik NerzRasmus QuaadeGreg Van AvermaetFrederique Robert
Bosch Cycling TeamSilvio HerklotzSilvio HerklotzSilvio HerklotzHarrison AdamsFabian Schnaidt
Brugse Zot - TrekCharles EngeldingerCharles EngeldingerTaylor PhinneyTaylor PhinneyTaylor Phinney
Shell Pro CyclingMikel LandaMikel LandaSam BewleyMatthew BrandtAdam Blythe
Equinor Pro Cycling TeamVegard Stake LaengenGianfranco ZilioliSteffen HovlandSimon StrømAndrea Guardini
Polestar ProCycling p/b TelenorThomas Nybo RiisWout PoelsFredrik LudvigssonJonas AhlstrandJonas Ahlstrand
Trans Cycling TeamPieter SerryPieter SerryGeraint ThomasGeraint ThomasAndrej Rajsp
Education First x Palace - NippoRigoberto UránRigoberto UránCameron PughPablo AlzagaFrederik Plesner
VisitUkraine p/b NemiroffMykyta SklarLeopold KönigPatrik ŠimekIgor OnofreiAlexey Tsatevitch
Tierra del FuegoJuan ChamorroJuan ChamorroEduardo SepulvedaRoberto Romero MartĂ­nezRick Zabel
Pedal Africa for QhubekaNatnael BerhaneTsgabu GrmayChristopher MwaangaHendrik van der MerweJani Tewelde
Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerryDaniel MartinDaniel MartinAnthony DesjardinsPhilip LaveryXavier Langlois
Nordea Bank - SAPJesper HansenPello BilbaoSøren AndersenAnders EgsvangAndrea Palini
Latvijas Balzams - OlainfarmYannick EijssenYannick EijssenYannick EijssenTony GallopinKris Boeckmans
Millenium - LATAM AirlinesFrederico FigueiredoMichael BorošNelson OliveiraDario AntonioRafael de Mattos Andriato
Team Cymru WalesNathan EarleNathan EarleSamuel HarrisonLuke Grivell-MellorAndrew Fenn
Strava - AvantiAngus ChapmanJack HaigCampbell FlakemoreCampbell FlakemoreLeigh Howard
ICBC Cycling TeamDealton NurMaxat AyazbayevDaniil FominykhJi Min JungHayato Yoshida
VIP MobileNikita NovikovNikita NovikovVito PogacarFlorian SenechalFlorian Senechal

Manager of Suntory [ICL]
Manager of Kraftwerk Man Machine [Man Game]
 
jseadog1
If Shell Pro Cycling wasn't ran by a complete idiot manager that doesn't know what he's doing in regards to training & planning, they would probably live up to all of your expectations of a podium finish.

I am like the New York Yankees of the ICL, I can sign the good guys and look good on paper, but cannot bring solid results to the table :lol:

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/fantasy.png

PCM.Daily Survivor Season 2 Fan Favorite Winner

PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012
PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013
PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016
 
Fabianski
Not really surprised to see a Latinos team high up in the climbing pecking order. It remains to be seen if the team's depth will really pay out - and if Chamorro can live up to his 78Mo, given his rather weak energy stats.
We're however obviously lacking a top puncheur, given that we're only 16th on the hills. I hope we'll still pull off some good results in those races...
While we're lacking a top ITT star as well, we should at least do well in TTTs, as only Polestar and VisitUkraine have a clearly stronger lineup in this discipline.
If we're the 6th strongest team on the cobbles, I'll take that without any hesitation, as we basically just have one decent cobbler... let's see how that lottery goes.
For the sprints, we'll have to see how well train surfing works, as we basically just have two sprinters, with two more in the making in our U23 squad. So we can't really set up a train. But I'm confident Zabel will make good use especially of his hill skills to get us some good results Smile

Thanks to everyone for the work you put into those previews, it's a nice read - especially as a newbie, as it's a good way to get to know the other teams Smile
 
Ripley
Again, excellent work, D2B!
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
redordead
I think last place is an accurate prediction for my team. We basically just have one very good rider and not much else. I'll try to rank a bit higher next year Smile



pcmdaily.com/images/mg/PCMdailyAwards2018/mgnewmanager.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/mghq2.png


"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej PogaÄŤar
 
Ripley
Certainly not, Senechal will surely score so many points that your team will do much better. Predicting CT teams is tough because they have a lot of flexibility booking their races and can play to their strengths and mostly avoid their weaknesses. D2b's prediction would be more accurate if you had to race a rigid calendar, like the WT teams have to.
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Nemolito
So, first Ripley decides to give my team the stress of battling for a promotion spot, only for DTB to make it worse and say we should actually go for the title. Now, watch me show everybody how it's done by graciously falling outside the top-10 Cool
 
Jump to Forum:
Similar Threads
Thread Forum Replies Last Post
ICL20 - Race Discussion Story Games 431 14-04-2021 13:14
ICL20 - Results Story Games 81 13-04-2021 19:51
ICL20 - Teams Story Games 231 09-04-2021 08:57
ICL20 - Rankings Story Games 20 08-04-2021 23:15
Echelons| Cycling Previews/Reviews Cycling 492 30-03-2021 16:39
Login
Username

Password



Not a member yet?
Click here to register.

Forgotten your password?
Request a new one here.
Latest content
Screenshots
Philippe Gilbert
Philippe Gilbert
PCM12: General Screenshots
Fantasy Betting
Current bets:
No bets available.
Best gamblers:
bullet roturn 1,701 PCM$
bullet fintas 1,620 PCM$
bullet df_Trek 1,599 PCM$
bullet jseadog1 1,400 PCM$
bullet baseba... 1,388 PCM$

bullet Main Fantasy Betting page
bullet Rankings: Top 100
ManGame Betting
Current bets:
No bets available.
Best gamblers:
bullet valverde321 1,200 PCM$
bullet jseadog1 1,200 PCM$
bullet df_Trek 1,200 PCM$
bullet AbhishekLFC 1,100 PCM$
bullet Marcovdw 1,100 PCM$

bullet Main MG Betting page
bullet Get weekly MG PCM$
bullet Rankings: Top 100
Render time: 0.63 seconds