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Tour of Ukraine Discussion
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 30-01-2021 09:50
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The TT friendly course of the Tour of Ukraine returns for a seventh consecutive running in the Man Game. The race starts with a 7 km Prologue, followed by a relatively short hilly stage where the punchers will hope to make an impact. The final stage is a 25+ kilometer Time Trial which is likely to have the most impact in the GC. The Prologue ends with a considerable uphill slope which could prove to be a disadvantage to the absolute pure Prologue specialists. The longer ITT on Stage 3 is flatter, but has enough bumps to trouble those less inclined on ascents.
Last year's winner Pluchkin is not here this time as their team have selected Andriafenomananiaina and Prevar to lead their charge. 2018 winner Ion Izagirre, still riding for the same team. albeit with a different name, is the only former winner on the startlist. He also finished 3rd in last year's edition.
| MON | HIL | TT | RES | PRL |  Gesink | 81 | 79 | 78 | 77 | 78 |  Cattaneo | 82 | 70 | 79 | 80 | 79 |  Eastman | 82 | 71 | 77 | 75 | 73 |  Intxausti | 80 | 69 | 75 | 75 | 75 |  Fraile | 76 | 72 | 79 | 76 | 79 |  Martin | 80 | 75 | 71 | 75 | 69 |  Izagirre | 74 | 81 | 77 | 72 | 77 |  Konig | 78 | 74 | 73 | 74 | 73 | | Borisavljevic | 77 | 73 | 74 | 74 | 74 | | Dees | 75 | 72 | 77 | 76 | 76 |  Dunbar | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 |  Haga | 75 | 72 | 76 | 70 | 77 |
A strong startlist have arrived for this race, pushing the previously mentioned Izagirre down the favourites' list. It can turn rapidly in his favour though, if the hilly Stage 2 turns out to be selective.
Gesink starts as top favourite, possessing all the skills necessary to succeed in a race like this. He has had a good start to the season, including a 2nd place GC finish in Portugal, which needed similar skillsets to do well. His manager and team will be hoping for more of the same.
Cattaneo and Eastman look to be the nearest competitors to the Dutchman, but both are considerably weaker on the hills and will be hoping for a less selective stage there. Cattaneo is the absolute top TT rider among the GC favourites.
Intxausti is another top contender with good TT and Prologue skills but his weaker TT could see him drop down the standings on the second stage.
Fraille is similar to Cattaneo in his make-up for this race, and could match the latter if Stage 2 goes in his favour.
Martin is likely to lose time against the clock on both stages, if they end up favouring the purists. However, given how the stages are expected to go, he should benefit from their profiles and should be able to hold on to a high position at the end of it.
Konig and Borisavljevic are strong overall stage racers and consistency will be their biggest weapon to rise to the top as others fall away in one or the other stage.
Dees and Haga are steady TT riders who can hold their own on the climbs. They too will have a similar strategy to the above mentioned duo, but with more focus on riding against the clock.
Dunbar is the perfect example of a 'well-rounder' rider, in being equally strong in all disciplines needed for this race. None of his abilities are world beating, but they are perfect to shine for a race like this.
| MON | HIL | TT | RES | PRL |  Bartl | 77 | 72 | 71 | 74 | 75 |  Andriafenomananiaina | 76 | 72 | 74 | 74 | 70 |  Figueiredo | 76 | 73 | 72 | 75 | 72 | | Ahmad Zamri | 75 | 70 | 75 | 74 | 75 |  Cataford | 72 | 70 | 79 | 75 | 79 | | Bernal | 75 | 70 | 74 | 76 | 72 |  Potocki | 77 | 72 | 70 | 71 | 70 | | Domagalski | 75 | 71 | 74 | 69 | 71 | | De Luna | 74 | 71 | 75 | 72 | 74 | | Paillot | 70 | 71 | 80 | 74 | 80 | | Martinez | 75 | 71 | 72 | 69 | 72 |
Some unfancied names here on the outsiders list. The common theme here is a decent hill climbing ability, with good medium to good skills against the clock. Cataford and Paillot are the best TT riders in the list while Bartl, Figueiredo and Potocki are the best going up inclines. No top punchers here, because this reporter doesn't believe that Stage 2 will be selective enough for the top punchers to take advantage.
| FLA | MON | RES | PRL | | Cattaneo | 70 | 82 | 80 | 79 | | Gesink | 71 | 81 | 77 | 78 | | Fraile | 69 | 76 | 76 | 79 | | Cataford | 74 | 72 | 75 | 79 | | Paillot | 70 | 70 | 74 | 80 | | Sergent | 79 | 65 | 74 | 80 | | Zmorka | 74 | 61 | 75 | 82 | | Intxausti | 68 | 80 | 75 | 75 | | Haga | 70 | 75 | 70 | 77 | | Izagirre | 71 | 74 | 72 | 77 | | Dees | 71 | 75 | 76 | 76 | | Eastman | 70 | 82 | 75 | 73 |
The favourites for Stage 1 are in the list above. With the expected uphill influence, Cattaneo and Gesink are expected to take advantage and look to be in the leader's jersey all through the race. Cataford is another rider who'll look to make best use of the profile for a high finish.
We shouldn't count out the purists though, as Cataford, Paillot, Sergent and Zmorka should be hot on the heels of the GC riders in search of a stage win here. They'll be looking to use the flat first half to build an advantage and hope to hold on in the second half.
Izagirre is the only pure puncher in the list again and will like to stay in touch with the stronger riders and take advantage on Stage 2.
Eastman's Prologue isn't the best, and he'll hope not to lose too much time on this stage.
| MON | HIL | RES | ACC | | Izagirre | 74 | 81 | 72 | 64 | | Schreurs | 69 | 81 | 72 | 74 | | Borges | 70 | 80 | 73 | 81 | | Paulinho | 75 | 80 | 72 | 75 | | Prevar | 71 | 80 | 70 | 73 | | Dowsett | 65 | 80 | 69 | 71 | | Turgis | 66 | 79 | 78 | 77 | | Gesink | 81 | 79 | 77 | 65 |  Gautier | 67 | 79 | 71 | 76 |  Bilbao | 67 | 79 | 71 | 75 |
The punchers will come out to play on Stage 2 and hope to make it selective to neutralize the advantage of the stronger TT riders.
Izagirre really stands out as the top rated puncher and he will try to take the lead on this stage, if things go his way.
The like of Schreurs, Borges, Prevar, Paulinho and Dowsett are not the best against the clock, and need to pull out an exceptional result on this stage to have a chance of a good GC placing. It will be interesting to see how GCN go about their strategy after their puncher pairing got in each other's way in the Tour Down Under.
Gesink is the other GC favourite to make it into this list.
| FLA | MON | RES | PRL | | Cattaneo | 70 | 82 | 79 | 80 | | Gesink | 71 | 81 | 78 | 77 | | Eastman | 70 | 82 | 77 | 75 | | Fraile | 69 | 76 | 79 | 76 | | Cataford | 74 | 72 | 79 | 75 | | Sergent | 79 | 65 | 80 | 74 | | Dees | 71 | 75 | 77 | 76 | | Paillot | 70 | 70 | 80 | 74 | | Intxausti | 68 | 80 | 75 | 75 |  Fiedler | 78 | 59 | 82 | 74 | | Izagirre | 71 | 74 | 77 | 72 | | Zmorka | 74 | 61 | 82 | 75 |
The time trial on Stage 3 is expected to go along the lines of the Prologue, in that the GC contenders will likely get some advantage from the bumps in the profile. On top of this, the hilly stage 2 is likely to tire out some of the TT specialists as well.
Cattaneo and Gesink once again find themselves on top pf the favourites' list with Eastman this time likely to challenge with a good time.
Fraille and Cataford shouldn't have too much problems with the profile as they are well and decently capable of handling the bumps. respectively.
Sergent and Paillot are equally strong against the clock, but the former is quite a bit weaker well it comes to handling ascents.
Intxausti is another GC contender who will look to use this stage to make an impact, putting more hopes on it being a hard stage, than his skills against the clock.
Dees and Izagirre are well-rounded rounded riders, and both are GC contenders in their own right. They'll look to consolidate their high placing on this stage.
Fiedler and Zmorka are the fastest riders for a TT, but their handling of climbs is woeful and could be a major hindrance on this stage.
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Edited by AbhishekLFC on 30-01-2021 15:56
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 30-01-2021 10:13
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
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Sad to see Bazhkou not make any list here but to be fair he hasn't shown much in the last 1.5 seasons to prove he should be there. Hope as always he can find the magic again.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 03:50
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 30-01-2021 10:14
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Grand Tour Champion
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After Pais Vasco I expect great things from Haga, which probably means he'll finish an anonymous 30th place.
AbhishekLFC wrote:
A strong startlist have arrived for this race, pushing the previously mentioned Izagirre down the favourites' list.
I knew he always wanted to be a Minion 
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| quadsas |
Posted on 30-01-2021 12:19
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Intxausti has been outperforming his TT rating this year somehow, so there's a chance for a decent result here, should be a fun one if Dees and Zamri don't collapse
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 30-01-2021 12:44
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Good race for Fraile to show his worth (hopefully). 
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 30-01-2021 13:34
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Only hope of points for Kraftwerk sit with Schädlich who we hope will defy the pundits and put in another over-performance in the ITTs.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 30-01-2021 15:56
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Directeur Sportif
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Marcovdw wrote:
AbhishekLFC wrote:
A strong startlist have arrived for this race, pushing the previously mentioned Izagirre down the favourites' list.
I knew he always wanted to be a Minion
Dreams do come true
Corrected now.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 30-01-2021 16:32
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Team Leader
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Gesink's season has been a great success so far. I'm afraid pairing him with Borges hasn't been tested yet though, but given there's only one small hill stage it should work fine.
If the hill stat proves decisive enough it should be a good race for us. If not then Fraile and Cattaneo should probably be the main candidates I'd say. Let's see.
Thanks for the great preview Abi!
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 30-01-2021 18:53
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Grand Tour Specialist
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All hopes on Dunbar to continue to deliver in this kind pf stage races. with not very hard stages + tts. Won't expect his amazing performance in Pologne to be repeated, but i hope he's close to the GC Top10.
Zmorka for the final TT, the prologue with the slopes being at the end just kills any chance of him doing anything. Not sure how important mountain will be in that tt, i have to hope is close to 0 to be able to fight for the stage win
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 31-01-2021 16:39
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Can't say I'm that happy with the result. But hey, if Konig is within a shot of Top 10, then it's some good news - at least he fares better than the supposed leader of the team in Preidler.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 31-01-2021 16:40
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
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3 guys in top 20, that's good news, if we can keep all 3 there after tommorow, that's big
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 31-01-2021 17:39
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Team Leader
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Good result from Gesink. Staying on top of things as usual.
Congrats on the win Mre!
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 31-01-2021 18:19
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The 0.5% gradient finds Schädlich out again 
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| jaxika |
Posted on 31-01-2021 19:15
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Classics Specialist
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That milliseconds  |
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 31-01-2021 20:49
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Grand Tour Champion
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Nice win from Fraile! Gonna be tough to hold the GC lead but it will be fun to see him try. 
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 31-01-2021 21:04
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Grand Tour Champion
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Good start from Haga. Hang on tomorrow and a top ten is possible.
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 01-02-2021 09:07
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A bit low Dunbar than what i expected, not looking great for a GC Top10 with that performance
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| jph27 |
Posted on 01-02-2021 09:23
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Good to see that the prologue is no flatter than last year's, despite the claims to the contrary in the profiles forum
If Paillot can hang on today he should make up most of those losses on the final stage. It's up and down, but I doubt much of it is above 5% so it should favour the TTers more than the prologue did. This is likely to be one of our worst races of the season so far, so just about damage limitation really. |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 01-02-2021 09:26
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World Champion
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puke
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| quadsas |
Posted on 01-02-2021 14:51
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
Joined: 18-01-2013
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Tim Dees Nuts.
And we'll have at least 3 guys, most likely 4 in the top 30. das big time
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