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Vuelta al Pais Vasco Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 12-12-2020 13:46
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 Vuelta al Pais Vasco
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Preview
The Vuelta al Pais Vasco has dropped from PTHC to HC this year, but it’s nonetheless a prestigeous race with a long history as one of the staples of the MGUCI since its inception. And eventhough it has seen a nominal downgrade, there are still excellent riders on the startlist - including the defending champion, as it happens, but more on that later.
As is tradition, Basque Country is hills country, but for the fifth time in a row, we start with a flat team time trial. A bad performance here can put the win almost out of reach already, so decent team support is a necessity. Stages 2, 3, 5 and 6 have stayed mostly the same - two stage finishes following a longer descent and two that will be decided on the final ascent, which are most likely to produce significant time gaps. The individual time trial on stage 4 now has a profile that is consistently going up and down, emphasizing the hilly nature of the course, but good pure time trialing will still be necessary. So, who has all the tools? Let’s take a look:
| MO | HI | TT | ST | RS | AC | TTT |  Izagirre | 74 | 81 | 77 | 73 | 72 | 64 | ***** |  Gesink | 81 | 79 | 78 | 75 | 77 | 65 | ***** |
Umm … so, yeah. That’s not a lot of names. But under normal circumstances, this really should be a two-horse race for the title. Izagirre and last year’s winner Gesink are the only two riders who, in addition to being among the very best puncheurs, also have Top 3 TTT support and most crucially ITT skills that are significantly above average. The Dutch is the more complete rider with higher stamina, resistance and mountain stats, while the Polar leader is the better pure puncheur.
Unless the ITT is more hill-heavy than expected or someone pulls off incredibly dominating performances in the other stages, it seems unlikely that any other rider has a realistic shot at the overall victory here. But of course there are a lot of other excellent riders here as well …
| MO | HI | TT | ST | RS | AC | TTT |  Buchmann | 76 | 81 | 67 | 73 | 74 | 73 | ***** |  Schreurs | 69 | 81 | 67 | 76 | 72 | 74 | **** |  Claeys | 66 | 82 | 63 | 72 | 66 | 71 | **** |  Chaves | 76 | 79 | 68 | 74 | 73 | 72 | *** |  Yates | 70 | 79 | 68 | 77 | 70 | 80 | *** |  Slagter | 78 | 79 | 66 | 71 | 73 | 71 | ** |  Kanerva | 64 | 78 | 70 | 75 | 69 | 76 | *** |  Meurisse | 74 | 77 | 67 | 74 | 74 | 78 | *** | | Bazhkou | 69 | 75 | 76 | 73 | 75 | 64 | *** |  Oomen | 80 | 75 | 74 | 78 | 77 | 69 | ** |
Of those, Buchmann has the best claim to be wrongly left out of the top tier. He might be the best overall puncheur in this field and Mapei is the third elite time trialing squad next to Polar and Duolingo. It’s just that he’ll likely have to make up a lot of time on the Top 2 because of the time trial.
Schreurs and Claeys are the next best riders and firmly belong into the Top 5 next to the three mentioned so far. Both are terrific puncheurs with great TTT support, but especially Claeys is a really poor time trialist, which almost kicked him out of this tier. But if there’s anyone who’s equiped to overcome his TT limitations, it’s him.
Chaves and Yates are, compared to the other puncheurs, somewhat solid time trialists, but a slight step below those above as pure puncheurs and TTT squads. Both have distinct strengths as well though, Chaves with his climbing and Yates of course with his great acceleration and sprint, which might net him some valuable bonus seconds here and there.
Then we come to a few riders with more significant limitations. Slagter is a pretty well-rounded rider with great climbing and decent secondary skills, but not only is he a poor time trialist himself, Campari also provides the worst TTT support of any of the contenders so far. Kanerva on the other hand can claim to be the third best time trialist of any of the tier 1 or 2 puncheurs, but his resistance is subpar and he may not even be the leader in his own team, as we will see in a bit. Xero’s leader Meurisse is as well rounded as almost any other contender, but his time trialing leaves a lot to be desired plus he's a step below the others here as a puncheur.
Finally, we have Bazhkou and Oomen as the best time trialists (other than the Top 2) among the better uphill riders here. They have to hope that the road stages won’t be too selective, but they’re also held back by mediocre TTT squads, especially Oomen, who is at least among the favorites for the young riders classification, alongside teammate De Plus and Desigual’s Errazkin (see below).
Some of the best puncheurs in the field have not been mentioned as GC contenders yet, which is because of their poor time trialing combined with mostly subpar TTT squads. Let’s take a look at those:
| MO | HI | TT | ST | RS | AC | TTT |  Ulissi | 66 | 80 | 62 | 83 | 71 | 75 | *** |  Paulinho | 75 | 80 | 64 | 70 | 72 | 75 | * |  Prevar | 71 | 80 | 62 | 77 | 70 | 73 | *** | | Gautier | 67 | 79 | 63 | 75 | 71 | 76 | *** | | De Plus | 76 | 78 | 64 | 74 | 73 | 72 | ** | | Teklit | 70 | 77 | 64 | 75 | 72 | 70 | *** | | Afonso | 66 | 77 | 58 | 75 | 73 | 70 | * | | Dowsett | 65 | 80 | 64 | 74 | 69 | 71 | **** | | Landa | 69 | 78 | 57 | 70 | 69 | 69 | **** | | Mutsumine | 69 | 77 | 64 | 73 | 70 | 71 | ** | | Errazkin | 72 | 77 | 68 | 74 | 73 | 72 | *** |
It’s important to note that these guys aren’t entirely out of the GC conversation, especially if the TT leans more heavily towards puncheurs. But with their low TT stats and mostly average-at-best TTT support, it’s unlikely to see them attack the Top 5 or so. Still, a lower Top 10 or Top 15 position would definitely be in the cards, as well as of course many good stage results.
Ulissi and Paulinho combine great puncheur qualities with elite stamina for the Italian and solid climbing for the Portuguese. Both also have great acceleration, which could come in handy in the stage finales.
Prevar and Gautier are the next biggest names, also very well-rounded without any big weakness, except for their time trialing of course. As we’ve mentioned, the latter either has a strong helper or an internal rival in Kanerva.
Speaking of two good riders on the same team, De Plus might share team leadership with Oomen. Although De Plus is clearly the superior puncheur, Oomen might have a leg up after the ITT. The rest of this tier is comprised of luxury domestiques who might challenge for a nice result of their own on a good day, or in the case of Errazkin for the young riders competition.
| Top 3 | Top 5 | Top 7 | | Duolingo | 79 | 78 | 77 | | Mapei | 79 | 78 | 76 | | Polar | 79 | 77 | 76 | | Minions | 77 | 76 | 74 | | GCN Racing | 77 | 76 | 73 |  Swisslion Cycling Team | 76 | 75 | 74 |
There are three clear favorites for the TTT: Duolingo, Mapei and Polar. The differences between them are marginal, so daily form might well be decisive, but the Swiss équipe is the slight betting favorite. Minions, GCN Racing and Swisslion are the most likely to fight for the remaining Top 5 spots, but there are a quite a few other teams with decent squads as well - we’ll look at that in more detail on stage 1 itself.
| TT | FL | HI | MO | | TT | FL | HI | MO | | Fiedler | 82 | 78 | 67 | 59 | Janse van Rensburg | 78 | 70 | 68 | 69 | | Sergent | 80 | 79 | 69 | 65 | Howson | 80 | 71 | 65 | 59 | | Viennet | 80 | 72 | 67 | 54 | Atkins | 78 | 75 | 68 | 54 |  Cataford | 79 | 74 | 70 | 72 | Van Niekerk | 78 | 76 | 67 | 61 | | Mullen | 79 | 75 | 70 | 62 | Sterobo | 78 | 70 | 63 | 71 | | Gesink | 78 | 71 | 79 | 81 | Izagirre | 77 | 71 | 81 | 74 |
There are some very strong time trialists here, but we will have to see if they function as more than key pieces for the opening time trial. That will depend on how much of an impact hill and even mountain skills have on the ITT. If those play a big role, it's again hard to look past Gesink and Izagirre. Otherwise, guys like Cataford, Mullen or even a pure specialist like Fiedler could have a shot.
As always, the Vuelta al Pais Vasco has a lot in store for us. Here’s the complete overview of all riders taking part:
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Edited by cunego59 on 12-12-2020 15:18
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| quadsas |
Posted on 12-12-2020 15:04
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Big sad that we're not here as Krizalid could've scored a couple stage wins.
Bazhkou being mentioned with favorites is an out of season April Fools joke I assume
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 12-12-2020 15:15
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Top-notch preview, thanks cunego. Duolingo is not portuguese though 
This event is one of our season goals. Hopefully our preference of TT-prowess over hills-strength pays up. There's nice competition, Izagirre being a local should prove tough to beat.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 12-12-2020 15:20
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Huh. Not sure how I got that in my head  Fixed now.
quadsas wrote:
Bazhkou being mentioned with favorites is an out of season April Fools joke I assume
It's a bit of a stretch, granted, but I wanted to highligh the better TTists among puncheurs and there just ... weren't that many
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| redordead |
Posted on 12-12-2020 15:37
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No mention of Nepomnyachsniy here, probably due to his lower hill stat, so I'm hoping the mountain stat comes in handy. The TT should suit him well and it's nice to see us mentioned for the TTT. I guess that bodes well for the future, as our young TT talents that still have developing to do 
I have no idea how this race will pan out for us, but I hope for some points at least. Thanks for the preview Cunego
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 12-12-2020 16:30
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Didn't want to sent Claeys to HL-TT combos as he is not going to be a contender, but needed to fill his racedays so took a punt here. The TTT squad is good and I might even expect more from JvR à la Danmark last season.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 12-12-2020 16:39
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Meh race will be for us
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 12-12-2020 21:38
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Hoping for some strong riding from Ulissi and Borisavljevic here!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 12-12-2020 22:51
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World Champion
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Oomen has never let me down! Yes, I know I just jinxed it.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| beagle |
Posted on 13-12-2020 09:03
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Race of the season for Polar!
Win goal, but with Gesink (Buchmann?) being here, it's gonna be incredibly hard to succeed. Still, anything but podium would be disaster for the team.
Thanks cunego 59 for detailed preview.
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 21-11-2024 20:30
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 13-12-2020 09:26
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Pretty similar team here as in Catalunya and we basically have the same ambitions. Gallopin could be in with a shot of a top 10 if we don't lose too much time on the TTT, but our main target will be to be active in breakaways and try to go for stage wins and the KoM jersey. Would love to see Vichot replicate his Catalunya performance!
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 13-12-2020 18:04
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Swapped Eastman for Chaves basically in this one as we had to split the racedays somehow and this seemed more suited for the punchier rider (as Eastman struggles in the hilly terrain). Did well to not lose much on the TTT, but had a reasonably strong support for Chaves there. The ITT will be more telling.
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 13-12-2020 19:07
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Good TTT from the boys, gives us many options going forward for the GC!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 13-12-2020 19:23
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Predicted 15th, finished 14th. I call this a win!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Heine |
Posted on 13-12-2020 20:00
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Win!
Quite happy about that, a bit risky to send Buchmann here with the TT, but decided there was enough Hill-stages to make it worth it. And starting with the TTT-win was fantastic!
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 13-12-2020 23:49
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Ouch that was close. It would have been neat to have taken the win, but this stage is probably not going to be decisive.
Still a good haul of points which everyone would envy. Congrats Heine!
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| redordead |
Posted on 14-12-2020 06:06
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Expected a bit more from the TTT, but the next two hill stages will ultimately decide our fortunes in this race.
Congrats to Heine on the win
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 14-12-2020 09:06
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Pretty happy with that performance. Losing less than 40 seconds to the winning team doesn't set us back too much. Hopefully the next couple of stages won't be too selective. Gallopin should be able to advance a lot in the GC after the ITT if that's the case.
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| fintas |
Posted on 14-12-2020 13:33
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Expected result for this stage. From now on, things can only get better. Now I hope my riders are free to join breaks.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 14-12-2020 13:49
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Oomen looking really strong there, good racing!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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