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Great Ocean Road Classic Discussion
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| redordead |
Posted on 14-11-2020 08:47
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Grand Tour Specialist
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The 8th edition of the Great Ocean Road Classic, a C2HC classic that gives an early chance for the CT sprinters to test themselves against their peers. But while that might be the case, recent history shows that this is not a straight forward race for the sprinters. In fact a breakaway has won this race the last two years, so what gives?
Well this is one of the shortest one day race in the entire MG calendar. In addition despite usually sporting nice weather in the Australian summer, the wind can at times wreck havoc in the peloton. So what does it take to win this race?
Let's look at all the favourites:
| SPR | ACC | FLAT | RES | HILL |  Kragh Andersen | 81 | 77 | 77 | 74 | 64 |  Scully | 79 | 80 | 74 | 70 | 67 |  Coutinho | 79 | 80 | 72 | 74 | 65 |  Carsi | 80 | 82 | 70 | 69 | 55 |  Selig | 79 | 81 | 71 | 68 | 65 |  Keough | 79 | 79 | 73 | 73 | 62 |  Wippert | 78 | 82 | 70 | 70 | 67 |  Bouhanni | 80 | 77 | 74 | 69 | 63 |  Pelucchi | 79 | 77 | 74 | 70 | 68 |  Krieger | 79 | 79 | 71 | 74 | 62 |  Lavoine | 80 | 78 | 73 | 64 | 60 |  Te Brake | 79 | 76 | 75 | 72 | 64 |  Salleh | 80 | 80 | 70 | 65 | 59 |  Lobato del Valle | 77 | 80 | 72 | 72 | 67 |  Bennett | 79 | 79 | 71 | 68 | 64 |  Ranneries | 78 | 82 | 70 | 65 | 56 |
Kragh Andersen has to be the headline favourite. The Dane boasts the best top speed and a strong engine on the flat. His notable weakness if you can call it that is his acceleration, so a good position in the final kilometres will be crucial. Next in line we have two very similar riders in Scully and Coutinho. Both possess a strong sprint and acceleration. Scully is a bit better on the flat and hills, but Coutinho is more resistant. Both are well rounded and should be able to perform well regardless of how they are positioned in the finale.
Carsi is arguably the fastest sprinter here. He can produce a great top speed and he doesn't need a lot of time to rev it up. His flat and resistance aren't good, but aren't bad also. His notable weakness is his hill stat, so he will have to be vigilant through the middle part of the race and save his strength for the sprint. Selig is similar to Carsi albeit a bit better rounded and without the same sprinting ability. Keough follows that trend as he is more similar to Scully and Coutinho. His hill stat is not great, but not much worse than most of the others.
Next is Wippert, who can match Carsi's acceleration, but not his top speed. Bouhanni on the other hand is the opposite, as he has great top speed, but not the explosiveness. Same goes for Pelucchi who stands out by having the best ability on the hills. Both have a good flat stat.
Krieger is very similar to Keough. Lavoine has of the better combos of speed and acceleration, but has the worst resistance of the favourites, as well as a worse hill stat. Te Brake is the rider that might most resemble Kragh Andersen. A good top speed, the worst acceleration of the favourites and a very good flat stat. Salleh is in a similar situation to Lavoine in that he will be hoping the racing won't be too hard before the end. Lobato del Valle is the inverse of Te Brake speed wise, but has a well rounded skill set and the kick to upset the odds. Bennett doesn't stand out in any way, but neither has a clear weakness. The last man on the list is Ranneries who is among the most explosive, but also the most fragile of the favourites.
| FLAT | RES | ACC | HILL | | Katrasnik | 81 | 76 | 72 | 63 | | Mundle | 79 | 73 | 69 | 65 | | Kuznetsov | 76 | 73 | 75 | 70 |  Baugnies | 77 | 72 | 72 | 71 | | Oss | 76 | 72 | 71 | 72 | | Maes | 78 | 71 | 64 | 65 | | Delgerbayar | 76 | 73 | 69 | 64 | | Ratto | 79 | 66 | 73 | 60 | | Quispe | 80 | 60 | 73 | 63 |
Here are the riders who would seem most suited to make it a breakaway victory. Ability on the flat, resistance and some acceleration to get away from the pack should be the main stats required. And the clear favourite on that list has to be Katrasnik. He boasts the best flat and resistance stat, and has already shown in the past that he can hold on until the finish line.
Next we have Mundle who has a great flat stat and good resistance. Kuznetsov is the punchiest on this list along with his teammate Oss. Another great allrounder here is Baugnies who has all the skills to put one over the sprinters.
Maes is another cobble specialist that can has a big engine on the flat, but lacks some acceleration. Delgerbayar is quite well rounded, with just his hill stat being slightly on the lower side. Ratto gives Gjensidige another option as one of the best flat riders, but with lower resistance. Lastly we have Quispe, the most one dimensional of the rouleurs.
As an aside all these riders have sprinting options on their teams, so it remains to be seen how much freedom they get from their own teams, let alone the peloton.
Full startlist:
Spoiler | Wippert | Wouter | BNZ Cycling Team | | Altanzul | Maani | BNZ Cycling Team | | Weber | Sascha | BNZ Cycling Team | | Von Hoff | Steele | BNZ Cycling Team | | Kelemen | Pavel | BNZ Cycling Team | | Baterdene | Narankhuu | BNZ Cycling Team | | Mudgway | Luke | BNZ Cycling Team | | Delgerbayar | Sonomtseren | BNZ Cycling Team | | Selig | Rüdiger | Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes | | Habtom | Mikiel | Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes | | Okbamariam | Tesfom | Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes | | Schoonbroodt | Bob | Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes | | Chokri | El Mehdi | Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes | | El Sabbahi | Houcaine | Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes | | Rutsch | Jonas | Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes | | Mugisha | Samuel | Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes | | Kragh Andersen | Asbjorn | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Sinkeldam | Ramon | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Eislers | Sandis | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | De Vreese | Laurens | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Quaade | Rasmus | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Resell | Erik Nordsaeter | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Belevics | Arturs | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Lavoine | Anthony | Carrefour - ESPN | | Nolf | Frederik | Carrefour - ESPN | | Planckaert | Baptiste | Carrefour - ESPN | | Ghyselinck | Jan | Carrefour - ESPN | | Skala | Jakub | Carrefour - ESPN | | Young | Darren | Carrefour - ESPN | | Scully | Tom | Centovalli - Fiat | | Merino Criado | Pedro | Centovalli - Fiat | | Stocker | Manuel | Centovalli - Fiat | | Mundle | Benedikt | Centovalli - Fiat | | Walscheid | Maximilian | Centovalli - Fiat | | Bissegger | Stefan | Centovalli - Fiat | | Bogdanovics | Maris | Eddie Stobart | | Cimolai | Davide | Eddie Stobart | | Taillefour | Fabien | Eddie Stobart | | Berger | Hakon Frengstad | Eddie Stobart | | Andersson | Emil | Eddie Stobart | | Dahlberg | Linus | Eddie Stobart | | Thorsen | Daniel | Eddie Stobart | | Te Brake | Remco | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Kip | Ismael | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Katrasnik | Gasper | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Ratto | Daniele | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Rojus | Adomaitis | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Siddikov | Dilmurdjon | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Hulgaard | Morten | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Knotten | Iver Johan | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | Bennett | Sam | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | | King | Ben | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | | Cruz | Freddy | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | | Sebright | Aggrey | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | | Ford | Michael | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | | Richardson | Ian | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | | McCarthy | Eoin | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | | English | Felix | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | | Coutinho | Lionel | Guave's Sunlight Cycling | | Page | Dylan | Guave's Sunlight Cycling | | Barbier | Rudy | Guave's Sunlight Cycling | | Feiereisen | Kevin | Guave's Sunlight Cycling | | Yamamoto | Genki | Guave's Sunlight Cycling | | Taubel | Christoph | Guave's Sunlight Cycling | | Baugnies | Jerome | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Guillen | Marco | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Sterbini | Luca | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Quispe | Alain | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Hayter | Ethan | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Ruiz | Robinson Steven | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Osorio | Alejandro | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Gonzales | Andre Alexander | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Keough | Luke | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Frankovic | Mateo | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Rathe | Jakob | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Granigan | Noah | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Eisenhart | Taylor | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Wilson | Nathan | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Mostov | Zeke | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Wirtgen | Luc | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Carsi | Mustafa | Nordica - Enel | | Martinelli | Davide | Nordica - Enel | | Schwarzmann | Michael | Nordica - Enel | | Lafay | Victor | Nordica - Enel | | Vila | Aimiliano | Nordica - Enel | | Rumsas | Raimondas | Nordica - Enel | | Van Lerberghe | Bert | Philips | | Boev | Igor | Philips | | Kreder | Michel | Philips | | Paprstka | Tomas | Philips | | Dumoulin | Tom | Philips | | Bovenhuis | Jasper | Philips | | Cepeda Hernandez | Jefferson | Philips | | Haddi | Soufiane | Project: Africa | | Kiflay | Metkel | Project: Africa | | Laizer | Richard Laningo | Project: Africa | | Hamza | Faycal | Project: Africa | | Betilson | Manuel | Project: Africa | | Main | Kent | Project: Africa | | Van Heerden | Eddie | Project: Africa | | Tesfom | Sirak | Project: Africa | | Lobato del Valle | Juan Jose | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Pellaud | Simon | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Schlechter | Pit | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Jiang | Zhihui | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Hirschi | Marc | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Misbah | Mushin | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Hibatullah | Jamal | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Noia | Carlo | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Pelucchi | Matteo | Sotto il sole di riccione | | Consonni | Simone | Sotto il sole di riccione | | Maccagli | Andrea Enrico | Sotto il sole di Riccione | | Veber | Matic | Sotto il sole di riccione | | Dalla Valle | Nicolas | Sotto il sole di riccione | | Lonardi | Giovanni | Sotto il sole di Riccione | | Boem | Nicola | Sotto il sole di riccione | | Jerman | Ziga | Sotto il Sole di Riccione | | Bouhanni | Nacer | Strava | | Sbaragli | Kristian | Strava | | Colbrelli | Sonny | Strava | | Kluge | Roger | Strava | | Oelerich | Jan | Strava | | Kuznetsov | Vyacheslav | Strava | | Oss | Daniel | Strava | | Gaudin | Damien | Strava | | Kvist | Thomas Vedel | Team Europcar | | Ranneries | Christian | Team Europcar | | Lavery | Philip | Team Europcar | | Schorn | Daniel | Team Europcar | | Pavlic | Marko | Team Europcar | | Weiss | Martin | Team Europcar | | Zielinski | Kamil | Team Europcar | | Mahdar | Martin | Team Europcar | | Salleh | Mohamed Harrif | Trans cycling team | | Mezgec | Luka | Trans cycling team | | Abraha | Tesfay | Trans cycling team | | Primozic | Jaka | Trans cycling team | | Knox | James | Trans cycling team | | Ganjkhanlou | Mohammad | Trans cycling team | | Munoz | Cristian | Trans Cycling Team | | Sotberg | Andre | Trans cycling team | | Krieger | Alexander | Tryg - Ritter Sport | | Maes | Nikolas | Tryg - Ritter Sport | | Nommela | Aksel | Tryg - Ritter Sport | | Kalf | Steven | Tryg - Ritter Sport | | Norsgaard | Mathias | Tryg - Ritter Sport | | Sleen | Torjus | Tryg - Ritter Sport | | Rodenberg | Frederik | Tryg - Ritter Sport |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 14-11-2020 08:49
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
Joined: 16-07-2013
PCM$: 350.00
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Thanka for the preview. The start for Bouhanni was quite good, fingers crossed we can get another podium.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 14-11-2020 08:56
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
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Thank you for the preview indeed. I'm hoping Guillén can shine but not even being mentioned in the preview probably says enough about that possibility 
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 26-11-2024 18:11
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 14-11-2020 09:55
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Team Manager
Posts: 6508
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A good first test for Selig, and also for the combination with Habtom. We have the two of them at a few races together and I'm curious if the sprint individually, if Habtom leads out Selig or if Habtom doesn't ride at all, which would be bad.
Thanks for the preview. This should be AKA's to lose, but the competition is stiff.
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 14-11-2020 10:11
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2907
Joined: 15-07-2007
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Thanks for the nice preview!
Hoping that the fragile Ranneries is handled with great care until the finish line |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 14-11-2020 11:43
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11679
Joined: 27-07-2015
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No mention for us but let's see if the someone from Boev, Kreder or Van Lerberghe can pull something out of the bag.
Thanks for the preview redordead 
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| TinxiaS |
Posted on 14-11-2020 12:29
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Domestique
Posts: 504
Joined: 17-08-2020
PCM$: 400.00
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Nice preview. I hope my team can come to the first points after an unlucky start in Russia. I hope Salleh won't have too many problems with the last two climbs otherwise our bet is on our second leader Luka Mezgec. 
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 14-11-2020 13:02
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4670
Joined: 29-09-2018
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First showing of Scully as our clear leader, and he's got strong support in Merino Criado and Stocker for the leadout, as well as Mundle for the preparation. I don't count on the latter to attack (as I could imagine PCM rather selecting us for the chase), but I won't be unhappy if he does
Thanks for the preview, redordead!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 14-11-2020 15:41
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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So, it's AKA's first race as an 81 sprinter, and as a CT favorite. I'd like to say I'm excited, but I'm more nervous than anything. He has a advantage over every competitor in sprint, flat and resistance. He only lags behind in acceleration. So I guess this will be a bit of a microcosm for the argument of which stats are more important in a PCM 18 sprint finish.
Of course, I can't expect much. The field is expectedly stacked, and though I do think AKA is the best on paper, the differences are marginal enough that daily form can easily make anybody on that preview list better than anyone else on a given day. We also don't have our top leadout train here because we sent Bertilsson to Tachira. So assuming we do a train at all, it will be something like De Vreese - Eislers - AKA. That's not our best, but it's probably good enough if it actually works properly and doesn't burn out too early - we'll just have to see. And of course, the final factor is luck, which in sprints may be the most important.
I'm going to refrain from giving a specific placement goal, which I'd probably fail. Instead, we have two more relative goals:
1.) Beat Ranneries. This is not against Bjartne, it would just be very humiliating for a trained AKA to lose to the guy people begged me to release for 6 years.
2.) Hopefully beat the vast majority of the sprinters with 60's resistance stats. Resistance being important as people say it is would be great news for AKA's hopes throughout the season.
Thanks for a great preview redordead! I'm very much looking forward to the race.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 14-11-2020 23:57
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Team Leader
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Well Wippert sprinted well against the PCT at the TDU. And hopefully can continue that good form into this race and grab us a high finish. He has the ability to do so.
Good luck to everyone!
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 15-11-2020 01:50
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Directeur Sportif
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Keough back to more his level here. Lets home he shows the opportunistic ability he showed last year. These one day sprint classics are a crap shoot so the range of possible outcomes is huge.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 15-11-2020 12:21
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Tour de France Champion
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Ffs the AI was favoring us with Oelerich on the attack but it should habe beem Kuznetovs, Kluge or at least Oss attacking. Instead a pure dom launches the later winner to his race winning move, and half of my team loses the peloton for no apparent reason.
Solid 5th place by Bouhanni especially given he was without support in the crucial part of the race. Could have been better tbh but we get some more points at least.
Thanks for the report and gratz to the surprise winner.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 15-11-2020 12:35
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Well, that was bad. Really bad. Instead of somehow positioning Scully in a decent place, Mundle tries on his own, which was the worst move he could possibly have done. But well, apparently the AI didn't consider us to be competitive in the sprint, as I've got no other explanation why Scully then finished 50th. Which is absolutely unacceptable, of course.
At least, Mundle secured a few points, but we didn't come here for 15th place. Horrible showing, hope the boys will listen to their DS' strategy next time.
Congrats to the winner anyways, the chaotic finale was pretty much perfect for him. And thanks for the report.
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 15-11-2020 12:38
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
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I guess the days of Guillen are really over. Too bad, but at least Baugnies has a decent 9th place and Quispe grabs three cheeky points as well finishing 21st
Thank you for the report red, and congratz to hillis
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 15-11-2020 12:42
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Team Manager
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Oh man! Fantastic performance by Selig, this is exactly what I was hoping he was capable of. Great to see that the AI placed him close to the front and that Schoonbroodt supported him well. Unfortunate of course that Katrasnik got away, but still, very happy with that. Bit disheartening that Habtom played no role whatsoever; if he was at the front as well, maybe he could have reeled Katrasnik back in. But I won't complain Congrats to hillis and thank you for the nice report redordead
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 15-11-2020 14:02
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Team Leader
Posts: 7298
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11th. Could’ve been better but we’ve had worse at this race. Good start to the season for us and excited for our home race in Gisborne coming up!!
Thanks for the report!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 15-11-2020 14:44
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
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GASPER K! That's my man 
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 15-11-2020 14:59
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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Attacker wins it - Check
Team nowhere to be seen - Check
AKA launches too early - Check
He finishes way outside the top 10 behind sprinters and non-sprinters alike - Check.
We had the flat, resistance, sprint advantage. That didn't seem to help even though the high pace of the final should have favored them even more than usual. And it definitely was not about climbing skill looking at the riders ahead of him. There's really no excuse for this bad of a performance. 16th place is unacceptable and almost unbelievably bad.
It's gonna be a long year for AKA. Terrible day for us.
Thanks for a great report though!
Edited by baseballlover312 on 15-11-2020 15:13
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 15-11-2020 16:23
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Did NOT expect a result here, and if something, we did not expect it to be from our rouleur! 
Thank you for the report
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| krisa |
Posted on 15-11-2020 16:54
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3962
Joined: 12-04-2011
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7th not terrible I guess for Pelucchi
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Great Ocean Road Classic 
