This thread will be used to post and discuss Season and Monthly Previews, just like last season. The monthly rankings will be posted in a separate thread.
First up, it's time for the Season Previews. Feel free to post any WT and/or CT previews that you may have or intend to come up with in this thread.
Based on a points system there will be a small amount of money awarded for the next season. A maximum of 10 points can be reached. One point will give a budget bonus of 20 in the next season. Each update in the teams thread will give a point. There won't be long essays required, a short update with a few sentences containing the latest results, the upcoming races, a new signed rider or anything noteworthy would be enough. Also considered for this will be posts in this Previews&Statistics thread. A season preview can even give several points: Detailed Season Preview (4 pts), Numbers based Preview (3 pts) You can also look at the monthly previews done by dominox in the 2018 teams thread, these would be exactly what we are looking for.
Managers who were in the CT last season might remember my simple formula, which I will use again: A weighted average of the AVGs of the six best riders per team (WAVG6). So the leaders' qualities are taken into account as well as team depth, to some extent. Among the things it does not account for the specialisation of riders, nor that AVGs do not give you a full picture.
1
2
3
4
5
6
WAVG6
Ceramica Panaria
81.7
77.3
76.5
76.5
75.9
74.9
78.04
The Balkan Cycling Project
78.2
77.9
77.2
76.3
75.9
75.7
77.33
Shell Pro Cycling
77.9
77.5
77.2
77.1
75.2
73.7
77.10
Equinor Pro Cycling
78.8
76.6
76.5
76.3
76.1
76.1
77.10
KBC Godiva
77.9
77.1
76.6
76.5
75.9
75.9
76.98
Santos - Euskadi
77.5
77.4
76.7
76.4
75.6
74.4
76.84
Wilier Triestina
78.9
76.5
75.9
75.7
75.1
74.9
76.75
SAP - Bianchi
77.8
77.4
76.0
75.7
75.4
75.3
76.71
Team Cymru Wales
78.3
76.9
75.8
75.6
75.6
75.4
76.71
Bosch Cycling Team
78.8
76.4
75.7
74.8
74.6
74.4
76.46
Specialized - Sony
79.2
76.1
75.1
75.0
74.8
74.2
76.42
Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling
76.8
76.8
76.6
75.4
75.4
75.1
76.35
Steelseries CT
76.7
76.0
75.9
75.6
75.6
75.4
76.06
Polestar ProCycling
76.3
76.2
75.9
75.8
75.5
75.5
76.01
Pedal Africa for Qhubeka
76.7
76.5
75.5
75.5
75.0
74.7
76.00
Project Cumbria
76.1
75.9
75.8
75.8
75.7
75.7
75.90
Swedbank - PEAB
76.9
76.6
75.1
75.1
74.5
73.8
75.85
Brugse Zot - Trek
76.3
75.9
75.8
75.7
75.1
75.1
75.85
Vegeta Cycling Team
76.7
75.7
75.6
75.4
74.5
74.5
75.75
Szczecin - Zentiva
76.4
76.4
75.2
74.7
74.3
74.1
75.62
PostNL
75.8
75.6
75.6
75.4
75.3
74.9
75.57
ICBC Cycling Team
76.0
75.3
75.2
75.1
74.7
74.7
75.37
Cool Runnings
74.9
74.4
74.3
73.5
72.4
72.1
74.10
Nonetheless, I think the table gives a decent overview. Ceramica Panaria tops the table, and the team must be top favourite for promotion, spearheaded by Aru, the outright winner of the prestige rankings last season. While the all-Caribbean team Cool Runnings carries the lanterne rouge.
Like last year here's a variation, which I call WPOS6. I ranked all 429 CT riders by their AVG first, ties by their total skill points. And then I weigh the positions in that table of the six best riders per team. This values the depth quality – at least within the top 6 – more than WAVG. But it immediately runs into trouble with four teams who have the four best riders in the CT, who are bound to outscore everybody else: Ceramica Panaria and Aru, Bosch and Herklotz, Wilier and Moser as well as Specialized with Froome. So this is definitely going to be worse than WAVG, unlike last season, where WPOS beat WAVG.
1
2
3
4
5
6
WPOS6
The Balkan Cycling Project
7
9
17
46
56
71
22.7
KBC Godiva
8
20
29
35
57
58
25.8
Ceramica Panaria
1
16
33
36
61
130
27.5
Equinor Pro Cycling
5
32
38
43
49
51
29.5
Shell Pro Cycling
10
13
18
19
103
212
32.0
Santos - Euskadi
12
15
28
42
80
156
33.4
SAP - Bianchi
11
14
52
73
95
98
40.5
Team Cymru Wales
6
22
67
83
84
94
44.0
Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling
23
24
30
92
93
106
45.0
Wilier Triestina
3
34
60
75
112
126
47.8
Steelseries CT
27
53
63
81
85
90
56.3
Polestar ProCycling
45
47
55
66
86
88
56.3
Project Cumbria
48
59
65
69
70
74
60.2
Pedal Africa for Qhubeka
25
37
87
89
121
136
63.2
Bosch Cycling Team
4
40
72
133
147
157
64.9
Brugse Zot - Trek
44
62
64
77
105
109
65.7
Specialized - Sony
2
50
111
122
131
173
71.8
Swedbank - PEAB
21
31
110
113
149
199
74.1
Vegeta Cycling Team
26
76
79
91
150
152
75.1
PostNL
68
78
82
97
101
124
83.0
Szczecin - Zentiva
39
41
102
140
160
179
84.1
ICBC Cycling Team
54
100
104
116
139
141
95.6
Cool Runnings
127
158
165
222
275
290
177.0
For a summary, I created a table with the results from both variants as well as a few more indicators which point to the depth of the full squad. The first new column is the number of riders per team at or over the median of AVG 73.6. The second is the average number of skill points of all riders in the team. And finally, the average number of RDs per rider and team. Neither are weighed.
WAVG
WPOS
≥73.6
AVGSK
AVGRD
Ceramica Panaria
1
78.0
3
27.5
10
900
70.6
Balkan Cycling Project
2
77.3
1
22.7
10
896
72.0
Shell Pro Cycling
3
77.1
5
32.0
7
872
76.9
Equinor Pro Cycling
4
77.1
4
29.5
12
901
70.6
KBC Godiva
5
77.0
2
25.8
7
891
73.2
Santos - Euskadi
6
76.8
6
33.4
8
892
74.2
Wilier Triestina
7
76.7
10
47.8
11
902
70.5
SAP - Bianchi
8
76.7
7
40.5
10
905
71.2
Team Cymru Wales
9
76.7
8
44.0
12
889
73.4
Bosch Cycling Team
10
76.5
15
64.9
7
898
73.0
Specialized - Sony
11
76.4
17
71.8
8
897
71.3
Fox Sports
12
76.3
9
45.0
10
889
75.0
Steelseries CT
13
76.1
11
56.3
12
906
69.7
Polestar ProCycling
14
76.0
12
56.3
14
910
69.2
Pedal Africa for Qhubeka
15
76.0
14
63.2
10
887
74.7
Project Cumbria
16
75.9
13
60.2
11
890
72.5
Swedbank - PEAB
17
75.9
18
74.1
6
881
76.4
Brugse Zot - Trek
18
75.9
16
65.7
10
890
73.9
Vegeta Cycling Team
19
75.8
19
75.1
13
901
70.9
Szczecin - Zentiva
20
75.6
21
84.1
8
889
73.6
PostNL
21
75.6
20
83.0
11
889
72.8
ICBC Cycling Team
22
75.4
22
95.6
10
885
73.5
Cool Runnings
23
74.1
23
177.0
3
867
79.3
Don't read too much into these additional numbers, average RDs and skill points are heavily influenced by the weakest riders per team. But it gives a shout-out to Polestar in particular, who have the strongest domestiques.
Here are some small notes as well as some more figures about every CT team this season, sorted alphabetically.
Bosch: Last season's top CT scorer Herklotz has become an even better stage racer in the off-season and we expect many more good results from him, though he's now outgrown the U25 rankings and might score fewer points. But with the new signings Plarre, Schnaidt and Kendler there's a bit more depth to the team.
MON
79
75
74
74
69
69
HIL
77
76
73
73
72
72
SPR
77
74
74
74
74
70
COB
73
72
70
69
69
69
TTR
76
75
73
70
68
68
Brugze Zot: A new team which only hired riders from the Benelux countries, except for one American, Chris Putt. Unsurprisingly, the focus is on hills cobblestones, the oldies Vanendert and Schleck will look to add top 10 results in minor stage races.
MON
76
75
73
73
73
72
HIL
75
75
75
75
74
74
SPR
76
75
73
70
70
70
COB
77
76
76
75
72
71
TTR
72
72
71
71
70
70
Ceramica Panaria: The top favourite for promotion and a quick return to the WT has a fiercesome squad, led by non other than Fabio Aru, the top prestige point scorer of 2018. Despite relegation and the reduction in budget the team actually looks stronger this year. They may have lost Pirazzi, Modolo and Colombo, but replaced them with Van Asbroeck and Latour.
MON
82
77
77
74
74
73
HIL
80
77
75
74
73
73
SPR
76
75
73
71
71
71
COB
77
74
72
71
70
70
TTR
76
73
73
71
71
70
Cool Runnings: The Caribbean team is an underdog in professional cycling, befitting the name. Even more so after letting go of their top rider from last season, Sergio Henao, as well as Lobato. Captain Anders Newbury (USA) is the only remaining rider who is not Central American or Caribbean. Feel the rhythm, feel the rhyme, get on up, it's cycling time!
MON
74
74
72
70
70
67
HIL
74
73
72
72
71
70
SPR
74
73
72
70
69
68
COB
71
69
69
67
67
66
TTR
74
72
70
67
66
66
Equinor: One of two CT teams with a clear and impressive focus on sprints, led by last season's TdF green jersey winner Guardini. They lost Sam Bennett in the off-season, but everybody else improved. With Zilioli and Pizzaballa they have a good puncher and climber, too. Though Pizzaballa especially can expect no support from his team mates.
MON
77
70
69
68
68
68
HIL
77
74
74
74
73
72
SPR
80
78
77
77
76
74
COB
70
70
69
69
69
68
TTR
76
75
73
73
70
68
Fox Sports: The ICL was missing an Australian team, Fox Sports has filled that gap, giving a new home to Australian and Kiwi riders. Goss is an excellent sprinter and Porte a great CT stage racer, while the only rider not from Australia or New Zealand, Stybar, will ride his last season in the CT where he's still a big threat on cobblestomes. Fox Sports is also the top favourite for CT team time trials.
MON
77
75
75
74
71
70
HIL
75
74
73
73
72
72
SPR
77
75
74
73
72
70
COB
77
73
72
72
69
67
TTR
77
76
75
75
75
73
ICBC: The Asian team did well last season and consequently their riders improved across the board. Not a favourite to win anything, but we expect good depth scoring again in hilly and mountainous terrain.
MON
76
76
75
75
74
70
HIL
76
75
75
75
74
73
SPR
74
71
71
70
70
70
COB
70
70
68
67
67
67
TTR
75
74
72
69
68
68
KBC Godiva: The new ICL team has put together an impressive and well balanced squad. We expect plenty of good results from Sergio Henao, Eijssen and Ciolek, while Benoot and Mullen will shine even brighter in the future.
MON
77
77
75
70
69
68
HIL
78
76
75
75
74
74
SPR
77
75
73
71
71
70
COB
75
73
71
70
70
70
TTR
78
74
73
72
71
70
Pedal Africa: Having dropped their only non-African rider Ciolek, the focus is even more clearly on stage racing, led by Kudus and Berhane. The dev team has been disbanded, so a few young riders will have to prove themselves on the CT level.
MON
77
77
76
75
74
74
HIL
76
75
75
75
74
73
SPR
75
74
74
73
71
68
COB
68
67
67
66
66
66
TTR
71
71
71
69
69
68
Polestar: Could also be called Poelstar with the hiring of Wout Poels, who had a great 2018 season with Aviva. Ludviggson is one of the favourites in TTs, Ahlstrand and Groenewegen are competent sprinters. The team will look to depth scoring, with plenty of riders capable of adding points to the score board.
MON
76
76
76
76
75
75
HIL
76
75
75
74
74
73
SPR
77
76
75
73
70
70
COB
73
72
70
69
69
69
TTR
78
75
74
74
72
70
PostNL: A shame that the manager vanished all the sudden after his excellent talent signings. I'm sure many managers hope to pick up those talents if the team disbands. The team doesn't include any outstanding riders, but decent depth for hilly and cobbled races.
MON
74
71
71
67
66
65
HIL
76
75
74
74
74
74
SPR
77
76
76
72
71
71
COB
75
75
74
69
69
67
TTR
73
73
72
71
71
67
Project Cumbria: Despite the demise of Bunzl and Wiggle we still have three British ICL teams thanks to the newcomer Project Cumbria. A good set of solid stage racers and sprinters, though for now a little lacking in future development.
MON
76
76
76
75
73
72
HIL
76
75
75
75
74
74
SPR
77
76
76
73
73
72
COB
75
71
70
69
67
67
TTR
74
73
73
71
71
71
Santos: The Basque team had to let its star rider Majka go after relegation, but still has a very competitive team. The late addition Wackermann should pay off, Appollonio is a strong sprinter and Ospina and Chaves will do well in stage races with little TT.
MON
78
77
71
70
70
69
HIL
78
76
76
75
74
74
SPR
78
75
74
72
72
71
COB
71
70
69
69
69
69
TTR
69
69
68
68
67
67
SAP: Like Santos, SAP lost their superstar, Kwiatkowski, with relegation, and had to spend even more than Santos to hang onto their pot 7 talent, with Spagnoli now earning a cool 890. Nizzolo and De Gendt are excellent riders, but possibly not enough to return to the WT quickly.
MON
76
76
74
72
70
70
HIL
76
75
75
74
73
72
SPR
80
76
76
75
74
74
COB
75
72
71
71
70
69
TTR
77
75
71
70
69
69
Shell: WWE is now Shell and looking to improve upon the last season. The 2018 TdF polkadot jersey winner Atapuma improved his climbing and is now among the top climbers in the CT. Blythe improved in similar fashion, with Viviani the team added another top sprinter.
MON
79
78
75
74
72
69
HIL
76
75
75
74
72
72
SPR
79
78
75
74
71
70
COB
71
70
70
67
67
67
TTR
74
70
69
68
68
67
Specialized: The new team made one of the biggest catches in the CT, picking up none other than Chris Froome, who is riding his final season. The team has nice depth, including a few riders who are set to improve in the future.
MON
80
77
75
75
74
74
HIL
75
75
74
73
73
73
SPR
75
72
71
68
68
67
COB
71
70
70
67
67
67
TTR
77
75
74
73
72
71
Steelseries: Spidertech with a new name and more of a Danish focus. Their top riders Quaade and Sütterlin are TT specialists, which doesn't promise a lot of points. A lot of sprinters, too, though no match for Equinor or Cymru.
MON
76
72
72
69
68
68
HIL
76
73
73
72
71
71
SPR
77
77
76
75
75
75
COB
75
74
72
71
70
70
TTR
79
77
72
72
72
72
Swedbank: The new nominally Swedish team has tried to put together a balanced squad with options on all terrains. Serry is a good captain and Boeckmans a capable sprinter, but possibly most points will come on cobblestones.
MON
76
76
70
68
68
68
HIL
77
75
74
73
72
71
SPR
77
73
72
71
71
71
COB
75
75
74
71
71
70
TTR
75
74
73
71
70
69
Szczecin: A new Eastern European team captained by the two best Czech riders, who will share the captaincy in hilly races. The total wage budget is only 3840, only Cool Runnings is spending less.
MON
74
73
72
71
69
68
HIL
76
76
75
75
73
71
SPR
75
75
72
72
72
71
COB
75
72
71
69
68
67
TTR
75
75
73
68
68
68
Team Cymru: The British sprint specialists have doubled down and improved their sprinting once more, last season 6 riders with SPR 75+, now 10! We are looking forward to an exciting battle with Equinor for most sprint victories.
MON
75
68
68
67
66
65
HIL
74
73
73
73
72
72
SPR
79
77
77
77
76
76
COB
73
70
69
69
69
67
TTR
76
69
67
66
66
66
The Balkan Cycling Project: The two leaders scored very well last season and now the team has even more stage racing options with the addition of Spilak and an improved Figueiredo. Mezgec joins Rajsp and Kolar for sprints, so we can expect a lot from the team this season, promotion is possible.
MON
78
77
77
77
75
72
HIL
79
77
76
75
74
72
SPR
77
76
76
75
74
73
COB
69
67
67
67
66
66
TTR
76
76
75
75
69
69
Vegeta: The founding member of the ICL is in a bit of a slump and probably should focus more on CT racing than last season. The future still looks bright, if the management has the patience, with plenty of interesting riders who moved up from the dev team.
MON
77
76
75
75
75
74
HIL
77
75
75
74
74
73
SPR
75
75
74
73
72
71
COB
74
70
69
67
66
66
TTR
77
75
72
72
71
71
Willier: Missed promotion by a hair last season, but the competition is stronger this year. Possibly promotion will again only be decided in October and Moser's performance in the late hilly races, though it also depends on how well his team mates can score throughout the year.
This year I've adapted my CT formula for the WT, the only difference being that I weighted the 9 best riders per team:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
WAVG9
Grupo Argos
81.8
79.2
78.8
78.6
78.5
78.2
78.1
78.1
77.2
79.24
Allianz – BMW
82.0
80.0
79.2
78.5
76.3
76.3
76.1
75.9
75.0
78.78
Équipe Peugeot
80.9
79.9
79.4
77.8
76.7
76.5
76.5
76.3
75.4
78.60
CarbonSports
80.9
80.1
79.0
77.3
77.1
75.8
75.8
75.5
75.5
78.41
Italo
81.3
78.9
78.1
77.4
77.1
76.9
76.8
76.4
76.4
78.37
Alitalia
79.3
79.2
78.6
77.8
77.6
77.0
76.8
75.9
75.6
78.18
Vittel – Havas
80.9
79.3
78.3
77.3
76.5
75.9
75.9
75.3
75.1
78.09
Filliers – Mora
80.4
80.1
77.4
77.1
76.7
76.3
76.2
75.5
75.3
78.05
Suntory
81.5
80.1
77.0
76.6
76.4
76.3
75.3
75.1
75.0
78.03
TVM Cycling
78.9
78.3
78.1
77.9
77.2
77.0
76.8
76.7
76.7
77.89
Aviva Cycling
80.8
77.9
77.2
76.8
76.4
76.2
76.0
75.9
75.6
77.64
Lufthansa
79.6
78.9
77.7
77.4
76.5
75.6
75.5
75.4
75.4
77.63
Liberty Seguros
80.7
79.5
77.5
76.1
75.7
75.5
75.3
75.2
75.1
77.63
Sevilla Cycling
81.7
78.6
77.0
76.2
76.0
75.3
74.9
74.7
74.3
77.55
CCC
79.8
77.2
76.9
76.8
76.5
76.3
76.2
75.8
75.6
77.30
VisitUkraine
78.3
77.5
77.0
76.8
76.6
76.1
74.9
74.6
74.5
76.90
Credit Suisse
77.9
77.6
76.6
76.3
76.2
75.8
75.7
75.4
75.2
76.74
Sugoi - Xanterra
78.2
77.1
76.8
76.1
75.5
75.4
75.4
75.3
74.9
76.57
Alternatively, here is WPOS9, which might or might not be more accurate:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
WPOS
Grupo Argos
2
23
30
32
34
39
41
42
60
26.6
Équipe Peugeot
8
16
20
48
85
92
93
104
149
40.1
Alitalia
22
24
31
49
51
72
76
122
135
40.8
Italo
5
28
43
57
67
73
75
95
98
42.0
Allianz – BMW
1
15
25
35
101
103
118
125
179
42.0
CarbonSports
7
12
26
58
64
129
130
139
142
45.2
TVM Cycling Team
29
36
44
47
63
68
78
82
83
46.6
Filliers – Mora
11
13
55
65
84
102
111
141
163
51.1
Vittel – Havas
6
21
38
59
91
123
124
161
173
51.7
Lufthansa
18
27
50
56
94
136
145
148
155
59.3
Suntory
4
14
69
86
96
100
157
171
178
59.5
Aviva
9
45
61
81
97
112
121
126
133
62.5
CCC
17
62
74
80
90
106
113
127
138
67.9
Liberty Seguros
10
19
54
116
132
144
158
165
167
71.1
VisitUkraine
37
53
71
77
88
115
187
203
210
76.4
Sevilla Cycling Team
3
33
70
110
120
160
188
201
217
76.7
Credit Suisse
46
52
89
105
107
128
131
152
164
83.8
Sugoi - Xanterra
40
66
79
119
146
150
153
162
185
93.1
And here's the summary plus the same extra stats: Number of riders per team over the median of 74.15, and unweighted averages of skill points and race days of the whole squad:
WAVG9
WPOS9
≥74.2
AVGSK
AVGRD
Grupo Argos - Quala
1
79.24
1
26.6
12
923
67.2
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
2
78.78
5
42.0
10
873
76.4
Équipe Cycliste Peugeot
3
78.60
2
40.1
13
903
69.9
CarbonSports - Lightweight
4
78.41
6
45.2
13
923
68.5
Italo
5
78.37
4
42.0
18
924
64.5
Team Alitalia
6
78.18
3
40.8
14
900
71.0
Vittel - Havas Communications
7
78.09
9
51.7
12
899
69.7
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
8
78.05
8
51.1
16
893
72.1
Suntory Lucozade Sport
9
78.03
11
59.5
14
908
69.6
TVM Cycling Team
10
77.89
7
46.6
15
914
66.8
Aviva Cycling Team
11
77.64
12
62.5
14
917
68.4
Lufthansa
12
77.63
10
59.3
15
904
70.7
Liberty Seguros
13
77.63
14
71.1
15
912
69.0
Sevilla Cycling Team
14
77.55
16
76.7
11
894
72.0
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
15
77.30
13
67.9
16
896
70.7
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
16
76.90
15
76.4
11
897
71.3
Credit Suisse
17
76.74
17
83.8
13
903
69.9
Sugoi - Xanterra
18
76.57
18
93.1
14
899
70.3
Italo impresses with 18 riders over the median and just 64.5 RDs on average - I'm not sure the manager was actually able to send full teams to every race.
Edited by Ripley on 11-06-2020 10:15
Allianz: Barguil is now the best rider in the world by AVG. Coquard replaces Greipel and the team captured Paolo Colombo, one of the best U25 climbers this season. Depth has (again) decreased slightly, no team has fewer riders with an AVG above the median, just 10. But just below that threshold they have some exciting young riders, plus a lot of less exciting riders.
MON
82
79
77
76
76
74
HIL
80
78
75
75
74
74
SPR
80
78
78
75
72
70
COB
78
75
74
73
73
72
TTR
75
73
73
72
71
71
Aviva: Considering we fluked our way to promotion we aren't looking all that bad. Majka was simply a fantastic catch, leaving us enough money to improve the team everywhere, except for sprinting. Lots of decent climbers, including Geoghegan Hart whjo qualifies for the U25 rankings, just about everything else rests on Thomas' shoulders.
MON
81
77
77
77
76
76
HIL
79
77
77
75
75
75
SPR
77
75
74
73
72
71
COB
78
76
76
73
72
72
TTR
77
76
76
73
73
72
Carbonsports: Last year's clear WT winners have lost Contador and decided against replacing him with another stage racer. So their focus has narrowed until Engeldinger, Peiffer and Chaix make their next steps. But their captains are better than ever, the future looks bright indeed.
MON
76
76
76
74
72
72
HIL
78
75
75
74
74
73
SPR
82
78
77
77
76
74
COB
80
78
77
73
72
72
TTR
76
76
74
71
71
70
CCC: The team found a good captain in TVG, while also adding Craddock to the mix. A very good depth - only Italo has more riders above the median - though clearly lacking COB. Happiest in the high mountains.
MON
79
78
77
76
76
76
HIL
78
78
76
76
75
75
SPR
78
75
75
74
73
71
COB
73
72
70
69
68
67
TTR
79
78
74
72
72
72
Credit Suisse: Made the fewest big transfers of the league newcomers. Villella is certainly a nice addition, Domont a good climber and with Cimolai and Silvestre they now have two sprinters while before they had none. Nobody for the cobbles, though. Predicted to fight against relegation.
MON
78
77
76
76
75
74
HIL
78
76
76
75
75
75
SPR
77
77
75
75
74
73
COB
73
73
70
69
68
68
TTR
76
73
73
73
72
72
Equipe Peugeot: Swapping out Jungels for Vanmarcke certainly looks like a good deal for Team Peugeot. A well-rounded squad, but with less future potential than some. But according to my humble predictions, they should be fighting for a podium position this year.
MON
78
77
77
75
74
72
HIL
80
77
77
76
74
72
SPR
81
78
75
75
74
73
COB
82
77
75
74
74
73
TTR
76
75
74
71
71
71
Filliers: Their riders just keep getting better and better. Goos is the oldest at 29, everybody has at least potential 5, if not 6 or 7. For now my formulas expect them in midfield, but some riders are more dangerous than their AVG suggests.
MON
77
76
75
75
75
75
HIL
77
77
76
76
75
74
SPR
81
75
75
75
73
72
COB
81
77
77
75
74
71
TTR
76
75
74
73
73
72
Grupos Argos: This is the team to beat according to my formulas. And do it this year, because it won't get any easier. 10 of their top 12 riders have potential 7 and will improve further. Only budget constraints can stop Argos.
MON
82
79
78
76
74
74
HIL
80
79
78
77
76
76
SPR
79
74
73
73
72
72
COB
79
73
72
72
72
72
TTR
80
80
78
77
75
75
Italo: The team lost Villella, Roelandts and Viviani and only replaced the latter with Greipel, who's even older than their figurehead rider Nibali. But the rest of the team has improved well this last year. Well balanced and great depth, with an impressive 18 riders over the median.
MON
82
78
78
76
76
71
HIL
79
79
77
76
76
75
SPR
79
77
76
76
75
74
COB
77
77
75
74
74
74
TTR
77
76
76
75
73
72
Liberty Seguros: The team has definitely increased its depth this year due to home-grown improvements. I'm quite unhappy how low my formulas place the team, to me it looks way better.
MON
81
78
76
76
75
75
HIL
80
79
77
75
74
74
SPR
76
76
75
74
74
73
COB
76
74
72
72
71
70
TTR
78
77
77
75
74
73
Lufthansa: Degenkolb is still top dog, but a lot has changed behind him: Gone are Porte, Van Avermaet, Inxtausti, Frank and Brambilla. The manager has replaced them with Simon Yates, Dombrowski, Matthews and Palini. Maybe weaker than last year, though my predictions point to a secure spot in midfield.
MON
78
76
75
75
73
73
HIL
79
76
75
75
75
75
SPR
79
78
77
77
76
75
COB
78
75
75
72
72
71
TTR
76
73
72
72
72
70
Sevilla: Contador seems to lift the team to a new level. And yet my predictions, which favour depth, especially WPOS, are quite unkind. They could be backed up by noting the team is lacking both COB and SPR, but still... Contador alone is bound to score a lot of points.
MON
82
79
77
76
76
75
HIL
79
77
76
75
74
74
SPR
76
75
74
74
73
72
COB
74
72
71
69
69
67
TTR
77
75
74
73
73
72
Sugoi: With Froome, Durbridge and Stybar the team lost their three best riders by AVG. The only substantial replacement is Uran, and he's not a fiercesome climber. My formulas make them relegation candidate number one, I'm afraid.
MON
78
77
77
76
76
75
HIL
77
75
75
75
74
73
SPR
79
76
75
75
73
72
COB
73
70
68
68
67
67
TTR
76
75
75
73
73
72
Suntory: Coppel and Matthews are gone, but others have stepped up. Bardet has worked on his TT, Chevrier has become a good secondary captain. My formulas place them right in the middle of the pack.
82
78
76
75
75
74
80
75
74
73
73
73
81
77
77
74
72
72
75
73
73
72
72
70
78
75
75
74
74
73
Team Alitalia: Demare has changed focus a bit, sacrificing 1 SPR for 3 HIL, which is why his AVG dropped slightly. Ludvigsson's MON has exploded from 73 to 77, Adam Yates is a welcome addition. My formulas rate the team highly... too highly maybe. Malori is their best rider by AVG but he's "only" a TT specialist.
MON
78
77
77
75
74
71
HIL
77
76
75
75
75
75
SPR
81
78
75
75
74
73
COB
75
74
73
72
72
70
TTR
80
78
77
76
73
73
TVM: The team relies on the same riders as last year, but many have improved. By AVG they have one of the weakest captains in the league, but excellent depth in their top 9 riders, only Argos' 9th best rider, Jungels, is better than TVM's Barry Markus.
MON
79
78
77
76
75
75
HIL
79
78
77
77
77
76
SPR
77
76
76
74
73
71
COB
78
75
74
73
73
73
TTR
80
78
75
75
74
74
VisitUkraine: The team's lost Spilak, otherwise it's virtually unchanged. My formulas see them fighting against relegation, but EBH especially is better than his AVG suggests.
MON
78
77
76
76
75
74
HIL
79
77
76
75
75
74
SPR
78
77
75
74
73
71
COB
73
73
70
68
67
67
TTR
76
75
75
75
75
75
Vittel: Absolutely crushed the CT and are set to become the best WT newcomer this year. They have brought in two excellent captains, Kwiatkowski and Phinney, and are bound to plan their race days smartly.
"Star Rider" Majka? I guess you have to be hyping him up Ripley, but I can think of thousands of more apt descriptions than that
Seems like we're destined for sixth, I'm happy with a promotion fight even if we're outsiders against the bigger teams. I'm mostly just so proud to have quite solidly the worst TTT squad, with nobody over 70 <3
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Great work! I underline the help Ripley gave me in the whole planning it was really good, looking at all these statistics makes me very positive about what to expect. Gotta pick up the pace and get into it as the break really had me forget about almost everything, but having Kwiat/Phinney was a move that I hope proves very worthy as both are able to cover various terrains at the same time, and behind them is a lot of the structure that succeeded last season.
That was a great read and thanks for the overview. I think Liberty will struggle this year. Puncheurs have become much better, e.g. Kwiatek, Barguil, Sagan etc. So we will have a tough time getting some results there although Bananito obv was a cannon last year. I have tried to mix it a little bit up this season with Bananito since I count with a dominance of Kwiatek, Barguil and Sagan tbh.
The quality of 82-81 climbers is insane, just look at the frenchies or Aru. Bertie and Nibs also on PoY clear favs for any GT they start. And there is a dramatic lack of TT kilometers in GTs that would give Herrada an advantage. Now it will be difficult to even podium a GT I reckon, the competition is just very, very good. I wouldn't be surprised if we had problems staying up and if Herrada pulls a Majka we also face relegation.
Still looking forward to the season. We have had some changes during the off season and bought some young sprinters and maybe we could also gain more prominence on the cobbles. In the mountains it will be tough with Pulido and Navarro still developing and Herrada being one point too low.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Thanks for the great preview. As a new manager nice to see the competition laid out. Went for a "win now" strategy when trying to build KBC and nice to see us well up the rankings. I think Mullen was my signing of the year, already one of the top TT guys in the division at 25. I fear Benoot is a tweener, caught between being a cobbler and puncheur.
Obviously, don't put too much trust into those predictions. If you look at my CT 18 summary from last season you can see how badly the formula misjudged some teams. So no reason Santos can't do better than 6th - or worse.
60 riders will be retiring at the end of the season, though only 13 of them are under contract. Essentially, old stars like Bennati, Pozzovivo, Trofimov and Nordhaug have already retired. On the other hand we have a handful of riders we expect to finish on a high note.
There's Chris Froome who signed with the CT team Specialized to become their undisputed captain. If it weren't for the relegation of Ceramica and Aru, Froome would be the top dog of the CT in his final season. De Gendt moved down to the CT as well, together with his SAP team, and thanks to his many talents should also do very well.
Andre Greipel is even bound to score well in the top flight. Allianz may have let him go, but Italo was happy to pick him as their sprint leader. He may already be 37 years old but is still close to his best thanks to three upgrades to his AoD.
Benat Intxausti had a disappointing 2018 season with Lufthansa, but TVM is surely hoping to squeeze a lot of points out of him in his final year. The only other rider to finish his career in the WT is Thomas Voeckler, at the ripe age of 40. Peugeot hopes the old fighter will still make a few breakaway appearances.
While down in the CT, Fox Sports can still expect a lot from Stybar in the northern classics and the same goes for PostNL and Lars Boom as well as Szczecin and Jürgen Roelandts. While Jelle Vanendert is Brugse Zot's leader in stage races, together with Andy Schleck, who's the same age but will continue for at least another year. We might not see much of the remaining riders, Cumbria's Simon Clarke, Steelseries' Michael Morkov, SAP's Tom Veelers and Shell's Matthew Busch, but we expect them to pass on some of their vast experiences to their younger team mates.
Some big names here. Will be sad to see Jelle Vanendert go from our perspective, always felt so bad we couldn't keep him after his stunning 2017 season. Hopefully Wackermann, a similar late buy puncheur (albeit a very different type), can replicate those heroics this time around. Thomas De Gendt a legend for SAP and will be doing his bit one last time for them this year as a leader.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Like last year here's a chart of the age distribution among the 889 professional riders (so excluding the U23):
And here is table where I include the best rider and his current AVG per birth year:
Year
#
Best
AVG
1979
1
Voeckler
69.9
1980
0
1981
1
Cancellara
74.5
1982
2
Contador
81.7
1983
3
Monfort
71.7
1984
7
Nibali
81.3
1985
28
Cavendish
80.1
1986
43
D. Martin
79.4
1987
51
Kristoff
78.5
1988
59
Kittel/Vanmarcke
80.9
1989
78
Majka
80.8
1990
86
Quintana
81.8
1991
92
Barguil
82.0
1992
77
Coquard
79.2
1993
65
Van Poppel
80.1
1994
76
Herklotz
78.8
1995
66
Van der Poel
77.5
1996
58
Spagnoli
75.3
1997
40
Pulido
74.3
1998
22
Dumont
72.8
1999
20
Barbeau
70.8
2000
14
Hamilton
68.4
I excluded riders without contract. Including them only makes two small changes: The best rider born in 1983 is Jurgen van den Broeck (AVG 75.2) and the empty year 1980 can be filled up with Daniele Bennati (67.2).
Some truly outstanding previews Ripley! Such a nice read all those statistics, I really enjoy them. Also I don't think I'm as far ahead of the bunch as you might suggest, especially given the fact we accumulated that many TTers that are worth not that much in PCM15 and the MG. Should give it a good fight, but CSC are my favourites ahead of us, Allianz and Italo.
Make your own preview then. I keep saying I wouldn't trust my formula much, if the results are embarrassingly different I'll have to come up with something else next season, though I like to keep it simple.
Going to be an interesting one for PureBlack, no top riders to speak of really but everybody with an AVG of 69 or more, could give lots of depth scoring or a lot of good riders not scoring much
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
