By taking in numbers for each of the five important categories, the QCA prediction wants to find out which teams may score the best around the block. Leader qualities as well as depth determine the score from 0 as worst to 10 as best possible. The sixth category is the hybrid category, where riders with overperformance type of stats and once for the mixed-skillset races are gathered. By assessing each team, there is a ranking for each stat and also a final CT prediction.
The final score is not only the average of the 6th categories. The climbing category f.e. has a higher importance than the time trial category. On top, categories importance are lower when the score is low and higher when the score is high, to also draw the impacts of calendar choice and exponentially higher scoring with top class riders into the game. Note that the final score is calculated with slightly different values than for the PT calculation due to the difference in choice and calendar and thus different importance of certain terrains as well as specialization, depth and importance of having all categories covered.
On top of the rankings we have 5 teams incredibly close to each other. The formula gives the slight edge to GCN who come in with the best climber in Pinot and the second best sprinter in Mohs. They fight the top with NENT, who are almost jacks of all trades, and the infamous DK Zalgiris as soon as they start caring about planning. They even outscore the "favorite" Azteca, who have great Mountain and Hill qualities but lack elsewhere. Netia rounds off the top 5 with the best puncheur and cobbler, but not the strongest overall squad I assume. Planning issues here are also a major concern as we heard.
Both Euskaltel and my best new team, Bianchi, are the runner-ups on the promotion spots and perfectly realistic promotion candidates. They surely should be in touch to autopromotion, and while Euskaltel relies on their talent stacked squad and nice hybrids, Bianchi comes in with CT monster Valls who's top class and a couple of other strong leaders. Following up are Equinor with the best hills line-up to support national puncheur star Bystrom and Adastra, who are mostly flexing with a versatile TTT team for many depth points in stage races. BNZ Cycling, led by Edmondson and a rather strong climbing cast, round of the mid-table teams.
Further down there is the category for most of the new teams that need to find their spots in the tour. OMV Petrom has a deep team with many solid options, but seems to be lacking the star power. Similar case for Cybex who come back in with a strong climbers group. McCormick has the best rider of the full division even with a nice leadout, but apart from that it's a very young squad. Eddie Stobart around puncheur star Meyer (alongside food support), Tryg with their young Scandinavian team, regional promoters Glanbia and the talent packed Swiss team Centovalli round off this prediction.
The ranking is obviously not the wisdom's best call, in fact it has been prepared on bus rides and flights on holidays. The numbers especially at the very top are quite narrow, so small changes can already have a significant impact. Don't hesitate to propose changes, there is certainly room for discussion. If many of those numbers are meant to be changed throughout the debate, there may be a second raking at the end after community-proposed changes.Edited by Croatia14 on 31-10-2019 19:46
