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PCM.daily » PCM.daily's Management Game » [Cont-Man-Game] General
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Slightly Mathematical CT Preview 2019
SportingNonsense
Format

- Riders each receive a rating based on their skills in six categories (Hill, Stage Race. Sprint, TT, Cobbles, Climbs), as also used in the OVL calculations
- Riders within a within-team ranking for each category, which is adjusted to account for realism, and reduce the influence of the strongest riders where appropriate.
- Weighted team ratings for each category calculated, based on the selected three best riders in each team for that category
- Resulting category rankings and scores are then used in four different ways, to create four division ranking lists
- These are combined into an overall division prediction.

Context - Last Year, Prediction vs Reality

1pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_vad.pngValio - DeLaval1pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_del.pngDelvaux-4
2pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_cpl.pngCompal-Merida2pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_vad.pngValio - DeLaval1
3pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_emo.pngENI - MOL3pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_cpl.pngCompal-Merida1
4pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_ccr.pngTeam Cerveceria Costa Rica4pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_sct.pngSwisslion Cycling Team-3
5pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_del.pngDelvaux5pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_api.pngAndorra Project - InGamba-4
6pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_gcn.pngGCN ProTeam6pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_emo.pngENI - MOL3
7pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_sct.pngSwisslion Cycling Team7pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_bdb.pngBanco de Bogota-6
8pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_rot.pngRothaus - Aegon8pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_csd.pngCampari - Super Dry-3
9pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_api.pngAndorra Project - InGamba9pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_spr.pngSauber Petronas Racing-1
10pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_spr.pngSauber Petronas Racing10pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_ccr.pngTeam Cerveceria Costa Rica6
11pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_csd.pngCampari - Super Dry11pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_gcn.pngGCN ProTeam5
12pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_bnz.pngBNZ Cycling Team12pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_rot.pngRothaus - Aegon4
13pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_bdb.pngBanco de Bogota13pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_ada.pngAdastra - Argon 18-1
14pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_ada.pngAdastra - Argon 1814pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_ofr.pngOberfranken-3
15pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_teb.pngTelia-Brussels Airlines15pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_esc.pngEddie Stobart-1
16pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_esc.pngEddie Stobart16pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_teb.pngTelia-Brussels Airlines1
17pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_ofr.pngOberfranken17pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_bnz.pngBNZ Cycling Team5
18pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_zal.pngDK Žalgiris18pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_epc.pngEquinor Pro Cycling-1
19pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_epc.pngEquinor Pro Cycling19pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2018/Micro/mg18_zal.pngDK Žalgiris1

The strongest of my predictions last year, with a correlation of 0.812. R3 (0.817) and R2 (0.811) were similar to the overall, and while R4 was best for PT, it was at 0.691 for CT.

No exact position predictions though, and 'only' 3 of the Top 5. Did get 8 of the Top 10 though.
farm8.staticflickr.com/7458/9357923136_f1e68270f3_n.jpg
 
SportingNonsense
Category Rankings
HillsStage RacesSprints
1Equinor Pro CyclingAzteca - NBCSNMcCormick Pro Cycling
2Eddie StobartDK ZalgirisGCN ProTeam
3BNZ Cycling TeamNENT RacingNENT Racing
4Netia - VoninBianchi - CampagnoloBianchi - Campagnolo
5Azteca - NBCSNGCN ProTeamEuskaltel - Elior
6Euskaltel - EliorBNZ Cycling TeamCentovalli - Fiat
7DK ZalgirisTryg Insurance Cycling TeamEquinor Pro Cycling
8NENT RacingCYBEX PlatinumOMV Petrom-Albania.al
9Centovalli - FiatAdastraAdastra
10AdastraNetia - VoninBNZ Cycling Team
Time TrialCobblesClimbs
1DK ZalgirisNetia - VoninCentovalli - Fiat
2Glanbia Foods NENT RacingBNZ Cycling Team
3Euskaltel - EliorAzteca - NBCSNAzteca - NBCSN
4AdastraBianchi - CampagnoloBianchi - Campagnolo
5Azteca - NBCSNOMV Petrom-Albania.alGCN ProTeam
6CYBEX PlatinumGCN ProTeamCYBEX Platinum
7GCN ProTeamTryg Insurance Cycling TeamAdastra
8Netia - VoninEquinor Pro CyclingDK Zalgiris
9OMV Petrom-Albania.alDK ZalgirisEddie Stobart
10Eddie StobartCYBEX PlatinumNENT Racing



HLSRSPTTCOCL
Adastra - Hell Energy Cycling10994147
Azteca - NBCSN5111533
Bianchi - Campagnolo15441744
BNZ Cycling Team361013152
Centovalli - Fiat911615161
CYBEX Platinum178136106
DK Zalgiris7214198
Eddie Stobart2141210139
Equinor Pro Cycling116714814
Euskaltel - Elior612531213
GCN ProTeam1252765
Glanbia Foods Cycling Project16151621715
McCormick Pro Cycling14171121116
NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite83311210
Netia - Vonin410158117
OMV Petrom-Albania.al131389511
Tryg Insurance Cycling Team1171716712

Overall Prediction
1Azteca - NBCSN
2NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite
3GCN ProTeam
4DK Zalgiris
5Bianchi - Campagnolo
6Euskaltel - Elior
7Netia - Vonin
8BNZ Cycling Team
9Adastra - Hell Energy Cycling
10Equinor Pro Cycling
11OMV Petrom-Albania.al
12Centovalli - Fiat
13CYBEX Platinum
14Eddie Stobart
15Tryg Insurance Cycling Team
16McCormick Pro Cycling
17Glanbia Foods Cycling Project

Four teams relegated from PCT last season, but they aren't all predicted to be in the Top 4 this season. Two of them are amongst the standout favourites though, which does well exceed the positions which earned them promotion previously in 2017. Azteca to take the title with their strength across terrains, with NENT following in 2nd.

Joining them in the promotion positions might not be the 3 teams that were expected to be there prior to transfers. GCN in 3rd, well they were the best finishing of last year's CT teams to remain in the division, so sure. But DK Zalgiris were bottom last season - now we have them to promote, with Intxausti leading their raft of new signings. And in 5th, a new team! Bianchi expected to be best of the newcomers. Much will rest on Valls and Granjel Cabrera there.

Eusklatel and Netia will be aiming higher than 6th and 7th no doubt, with BNZ, Adastra and Equinor predicted Top 10 finishes. That does mean that the 5 remaining new teams are all predicted to be outside of the Top 10. Time for them to prove the formulas wrong then!

R1R2R3R4…OP
1AZTAZTAZTAZTAZTAzteca - NBCSN
2NENNENNENNENNENNENT Racing p/b Hootsuite
3GCNDKZDKZGCNGCNGCN ProTeam
4DKZGCNGCNDKZDKZDK Zalgiris
5BIABNZEUSEUSBIABianchi - Campagnolo
6BNZBIANETBIAEUSEuskaltel - Elior
7EUSNETBIANETNETNetia - Vonin
8ADAEUSADAADABNZBNZ Cycling Team
9NETADAOMVEQUADAAdastra - Hell Energy Cycling
10CENCENBNZOMVEQUEquinor Pro Cycling
11OMVEQUCYBBNZOMVOMV Petrom-Albania.al
12EQUEDDEQUEDDCENCentovalli - Fiat
13CYBCYBEDDCYBCYBCYBEX Platinum
14EDDOMVCENCENEDDEddie Stobart
15TRYTRYTRYTRYTRYTryg Insurance Cycling Team
16MCCMCCMCCMCCMCCMcCormick Pro Cycling
17GLAGLAGLAGLAGLAGlanbia Foods Cycling Project

farm8.staticflickr.com/7458/9357923136_f1e68270f3_n.jpg
 
quadsas
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Manager of the greatest team in the world
DK Žalgiris
 
hillis91
At least we are not predicted to go last Banana
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Kentaurus
In case anyone wants to know the difference in CT and PCT... I've come down with essentially the same squad that was easily last place in the PCT last season.
 
the_hoyle
Well those are some pre-season predictions that put pressures on GCN to perform... I'll take 3rd come the end of the season
.: Manager of :.
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knockout
quadsas wrote:
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Quadsas is satisfied despite being predicted lower than three other teams? Shock
A Big Thank You To All MG And ICL Reporters!
And To All Who Organize Something On Daily As Well!


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quadsas
knockout wrote:
quadsas wrote:
subscribe


Quadsas is satisfied despite being predicted lower than three other teams? Shock


SNs math is expected to produce inadequate results for us, but he is on right track
Manager of the greatest team in the world
DK Žalgiris
 
liefwarrior
Hold up, I'm struggling to understand these cobble ratings.

Obviously Kasperkiewicz and Van Keirsbulck are the strongest cobblers in the division, especially when it comes to hilly terrain. This I have no issue with.

Azteca - NBCSN is rated third with who? German Anibal Orue and Chequan Richardson? They've both got nice cobble stats, and Orue can ride well in longer races, but other than that I can't see anything coming from them. They don't have the sprint speed to win from long-distance breakaways, and they lack the physical abilities to make attacks closer to the finish.

OMV and Bianchi I can somewhat understand, as both Young and Kluge have very solid sprinting abilities, however to leave out Nepomnyachsniy is a bit peculiar, although he is understandably worse. The low resistance and hill place him below them for sure, but below Lagab, who has worse physicals and can't even sprint? That's harsh.

I'd collate the cobblers in CT in the various races a bit more like this:
Hills:
1. Kasperkiewicz
2. van Keirsbulck
3. Young
4. Lagab
5. Kluge/Maes/McLay

Sprints:
1. Young
2. Nepomnyachsniy
3. Kluge
4. McLay
5. Lagab

Flat:
1. Kluge
2. Kasperkiewicz
3. Maes
4. Van Kiersbulck
5. Taubel

I'd need to look over the schedule again, but I seem to remember few bunched sprints, and more a mixture of flat and hilly breakaways. Overall I'd rate the teams as:
1. Netia-Vonin (Kasperkiewicz)
2. NENT Racing (Van Keirsbulck)
3. Bianchi (Kluge)
4. OMV Petrom (Young, Taubel)
5. Tryg (Maes)
6. Zalgiris (Nepomnyachsniy)
7. Equinor (Lagab)
8. GCN (McLay)
9. Azteca (Richardson, Orue)
10. CYBEX (Abraha)

Obviously you a far more experienced than me, so it'd be great if you could expand a bit more on why you gave the ratings that you did, or if you could show me how my thinking is flawed. I just don't understand how you reached the conclusions you did, as far as cobbles are concerned.
 
Kentaurus
liefwarrior wrote:
Hold up, I'm struggling to understand these cobble ratings.


Its based on expected points, my team having 3 guys with 78/78/77 may not win races but will fill out top 10s and get a good amount of points from cobbled races.
 
liefwarrior
Ahhhh, that makes so much sense, and seems rather obvious now... oops. So you've basically spent less, and are aiming to get less points per rider, but more points because you have more riders?
 
Kentaurus
liefwarrior wrote:
Ahhhh, that makes so much sense, and seems rather obvious now... oops. So you've basically spent less, and are aiming to get less points per rider, but more points because you have more riders?


Yea its a collective team thing, I don't expect them to win all the time against riders in CT, but they will get very good finishes. Sadly they are all 3 riders I've developed for the sole purpose of supporting Danny Summerhill (who is no longer with my team)... I was actually surprised to be 3rd and not 2nd in Cobbles with 3 of the top 9 cobble stats on my team.

also I think you are greatly overestimating the value of support stats for cobbled races, Cobbles is by far and away the most important stat, followed by flat/hill depending on terrain as well as Stamina for the longer races.
Edited by Kentaurus on 30-10-2019 01:24
 
Jakstar22
8th place...I can see that. Hopefully we can pull together to move up the order a few placings but I'd be very happy with a top 10!
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
This seems fair for McCormick - nice to rate first in sprints since that was the only terrain in which we made any serious attempt to be competitive.

In our ideal world we reach the lofty heights of the top 15 to reach our season goal.
 
whitejersey
We will take a second place for sure!
Nordstrom - CA Technologies
 
Azerbaijan
Best of the new teams as far as I can see. That's surprising...
i.imgur.com/OCoOxpZ.png
 
SportingNonsense
liefwarrior, you've spent more time thinking about CT cobbles than I have so may well end up closer - I'm just applying previous formulas on this year's database. Glad to see it is causing intrigue though!

And indeed, as Kentaurus says, all of these ratings are considering the abilities of the Top 3 riders per team on each terrain, rather than just the leaders. It is weighted such that the top rider is most important, but having weaker support can pull a team down.

For Azteca, I have them as having the 7th best '1st' rider; the best '2nd' rider and the second best '3rd' rider for cobbled races. And while Lagab may not be better than Nepomnyachsniy, the extra presence of Kurth means Equinor are just about rated higher than Zalgiris.

Azerbaijan wrote:
Best of the new teams as far as I can see. That's surprising...


Not quite - that's Bianchi
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MacC
Well, i do like to be the underdog

#goglanbia
 
Azerbaijan
SportingNonsense wrote:
liefwarrior, you've spent more time thinking about CT cobbles than I have so may well end up closer - I'm just applying previous formulas on this year's database. Glad to see it is causing intrigue though!

And indeed, as Kentaurus says, all of these ratings are considering the abilities of the Top 3 riders per team on each terrain, rather than just the leaders. It is weighted such that the top rider is most important, but having weaker support can pull a team down.

For Azteca, I have them as having the 7th best '1st' rider; the best '2nd' rider and the second best '3rd' rider for cobbled races. And while Lagab may not be better than Nepomnyachsniy, the extra presence of Kurth means Equinor are just about rated higher than Zalgiris.

Azerbaijan wrote:
Best of the new teams as far as I can see. That's surprising...


Not quite - that's Bianchi


I could have read it more thoroughly. Still surprised though.
i.imgur.com/OCoOxpZ.png
 
Fabianski
Surprised to be rated first in climbing, I definitely expected Azteca to be on top there, or maybe CYBEX. Top3-5 should be realistic, though.

On the other hand, a rather disappointing 11th in stage races. Obviously, none of my climbers is a strong TTer, but as we didn't select the most TT-heavy (or just Mt/Hi TTs where possible) races, I hope we'll score better than predicted. I had planned to get a good TT squad - and fixed the goals accordingly - but it just wouldn't turn out this way.

Then, I'll obviously have to agree with the low-end ratings for TTs and cobbles, which I hope to improve for next season.

9th for hills and 6th in sprinting sounds fair, too. I hope I've planned my riders well enough to get out the maximum, but we'll see.

Our overall goal is Top15, so a predicted 12th doesn't sound that bad. Top10 would be nice, though. Especially as there are only 17 teams...
 
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