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Ollfardh was bored and looked at the PCT leaders 2019
Ollfardh
As always, we need to look back at last year:

https://pcmdaily....d_id=51897


I can't say I'm unhappy with my predictions, Baugnies had another monster season on the cobbles and Kudus surprised me as well, but in the end my top 3's in each category were rather accurate. So how did that translate in the rankings?


Fighting for the title:
1Indosat (5)
2Iberia (7)
Fighting for promotion:
3Spar (2)
4Kraftwerk (11)
5Meiji (12)
6Minions (14)
7Podium Ambition (6)
8Reddit (10)
9Popo4Ever (15)
Safe mid-table:
10Fablok (4)
11Carrefour (20)
12Generali (1)
13Novatek (16)
14Ayubowan (8)
Close to the danger zone:
15Philips (18)
16Carlsberg (21)
17Xero (14)
18Lierse (22)
19Repsol (3)
20Kulczyk (9)
Fighting to stay in:
21Azteca (26)
22CycleYorkshire (19)
23Euskaltel (25)
24Netia (23)
25WCC (17)
25Nordstrom (24)




Sadly to say not a single one correct and even some huge misses with Generali and Repsol proving depth is so very important. But let's try it again for 2019!
 
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Ollfardh
Cobbles

If you spent your last money on a 78 cobbler to lead your team to glory, this is going to be a very disappointing season for you. The legend Danny Summerhill is back in the PCT this year, and he's going to win, with or without the help of Amadou Bakari. Races he won't win will see good chances for Joeri Stallaert, who win be nearly unbeatable if it comes to a sprint. I had to put last year's winner Baugnies only 5th, but can he surprise again?

CobblesRiderTeam
1Danny SummerhillAndorra
2Joeri StallaertVolvo
3Pieter VanspeybrouckCarlsberg
4Lukas SpenglerUBS
5Jerome BaugniesKulczyk
6Ruben ZepunkteMinions
7Kenneth VanbilsenLierse
8Michel SibillaRakuten
9Vegard BreenDelvaux
10Ricardo FerreiraCampari




Hills

Hills are hard to predict once again, as there's no one really standing above the rest here. A bit more mountain, sprint or stamina here and there could make the difference in the right races. I could have included even more riders like Gautier, Vakoc, Trofimov or even Betancourt (but not Waeytens, never Waeytens).

HillsRiderTeam
1Dimitri ClaeysMinions
2Tomohiro KinoshitaRakuten
3Wilco KeldermanPhilips
4Eduard BeltranSwisslion
5Maurice SchreursDelvaux
6Ion IzagirreIberia
7Cesare Di MaggioENI
8Aleksandar FlugelKraftwerk
9Simon YatesDesigual
10Jonathan BellisCycleYorkshire




Stage races

You'd think having Pluchkin would be enough to promote? Think again! He's still here and ready to dominate once more. Tenorio should give him a decent fight this year though. Uran and Amador are next, but after that it will be close for the rest of the top 10.

Stage RacesRiderTeam
1Aleksandr PluchkinPopo4ever
2Justo TenorioDesigual
3Rigoberto UranMinions
4Andrei AmadorUBS
5Ki Ho ChoiENI
6Daniel MartinCampari
7Tiago MachadoAndorra
8Natnael BerhaneISA
9Primoz RoglicBerg
10Louis MeintjesCycleYorkshire




Sprints

Same story for the sprints, where Degenkolb return to defend his title. Jonas Ahlstrand should give him a run for his money though. The PCT sprinter field is absolutely stacked again with some famous names not making the top 10 again: Boeckmans, Appollonio, Vantomme and Van Asbroeck to name a few.

SprintsRiderTeam
1John DegenkolbIberia
2Jonas AhlstrandVolvo
3Jacopo GuarnieriDelvaux
4Lahcen SaberPhilips
5Rick ZabelDesigual
6Ivano Lo CiceroEuropcar
7Oscar AlavinoDuolingo
8Mark CavendishKraftwerk
9Gerald CiolekSwisslion
10Romain VanderbiestCarrefour




Time trials

If you want another good bet, go for Jerome Coppel winning the time trials. Even when declining, he still has a huge edge over the rest of the field. I restricted this to one rider per team, but CycleYorkshire in particular has so many scoring options here.

Time TrialRiderTeam
1Jerome CoppelCarrefour
2Luke DurbridgeCycleYorkshire
3Marcel KittelValio
4Omar FraileDesigual
5Dominque CornuDuolingo
6Silvan DillierUBS
7Lucas SchadlichKraftwerk
8Phan Age HaugardVolvo
9Mikhail IgnatievDelvaux
10Hugues MottinAndorra

Edited by Ollfardh on 22-10-2019 12:36
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Ollfardh
We'll throw it all in one ranking then. Like last year, I won't give exact points but rather groups of positions. I'll also throw in the disclaimer again, looking at leaders only is very flawed as it gives no indication of team depth and furthermore a bunch of guys just not making my top 10 could very well be great point scorers.


My title favourite
1Minions
Set for promotion
2Desigual
3Volvo
4Iberia
In the promotion fight
5Delvaux
6Philips
7Rakuten
8Andorra
9UBS
10Popo
Safe midtable
11ENI
12Swisslion
13Kraftwerk
14Carrefour
15Yorkshire
16Carlsberg
17Duolingo
Fighting to stay in
18Campari
19Europcar
20Kulczyk
21Valio
22Lierse
23Isa
Doomed
24Berg
25Xero
25Sauber




Let's start at the bottom, no reason to worry for Xero and Sauber even though they didn't get a mention yet. Both just didn't make the cut in any category but it was very close. Last year I didn't give WCC any points, but they finished well above me at a safe 17th spot.

I placed myself 22th, where we ended last year. Could be expected as there were no major changes in my team. But it's all really close really between position 11 and 26. The top 10 should fight for the title, but Minions really stood out in my calculations so I make them my title favourite. With Claeys-Uran-Zepunkte they have a great potential, and even in sprints they can score with Vantomme and Drapac both not making the list, but they've sure won stages in the past!
Edited by Ollfardh on 22-10-2019 13:31
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
jandal7
To be expected to have 0 points from you this year. Would have probably snuck Debesay into the cobbled top 10 myself though but wasn't ever expecting anyone else Pfft I like to think that I am not doomed but there we go, we'll see Grin

And if Booker wanted less pressure after the last two predictions, he's got it here :lol:
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [PCT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing
[CX] Listerijns & BoK

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
i.imgur.com/wM6Wok5.png
i.imgur.com/kDSWYiK.png
i.imgur.com/olRsxdu.png
 
Yellow Jersey
Oh I like this! Even though I think Machado may be overestimated here I really like the confidence put in for an 8th place Smile
 
Marcovdw
You certainly didn't underestimate us :lol:

Wouldn't call us title favorites, but I'm certainly flattered. Hope the pressure won't get to the Minions.
Manager of Minions
 
valverde321
Some interesting predictions. First of all it is nice to be in the hunt for promotion, as that was my goal.

I do think Kelderman, Kinoshita, Beltran and maybe more are better than Claeys tho. Dont get me wrong there will probably be times Claeys beats them, but his weak backups, low MO/ACC mean he's not as strong as his 83 Hil suggests imo compared to the 82 Hil guys. Lots of times that MO stat is important in the run up to the final climb in hill races on PCm18.

Then for stage racers, I dont personally think Choi is the 5th best stage racer in PCT, and Rafael Ries f.e isnt even in the Top 10 even though Uran who is slightly better in only a few key stats is 3rd.

Apart from a few disagreements I think it looks good though, and of course appreciate the effort you've put into this as predictions can be one of the most fun aspects of the mangame.
 
Booker
jandal7 wrote:
And if Booker wanted less pressure after the last two predictions, he's got it here :lol:


Oh hell yeah, relegate me Ollfardh! Do it, you won’t! Pfft
 
redordead
Safe in midtable?! Shock

I think our chances of staying up are slim. Beltran needs to dominate if we are to achieve that.
 
Ollfardh
Jandal - Debesay was never going to make it in this field, George Bennett was much closer actually. Houle and Rowe will also score points as hybrids.

Yellow - After the top 4, it was a very close call so I think I may have overestimated you. Then again, Summerhill.

Marco - You already a good team and added Claeys and Vantomme. If you had a good planning and don't have to use you 2nd tier guys as leader too often, you'll win this.

Valverde - Now you're scaring me, I was assured PCM18 MO would have a limited impact before resiging Van Asbroeck and Vanbilsen. Reis just fell short because of his speed, but I see you point.

Booker - Don't worry, I'm sure Baugnies will beat Summerhill and Vanspeybrouck every other race Pfft

Red - Yeah, I have to agree with you, this ranking isn't perfect. Beltran will score big for you, don't worry about that. But if Ciolek fails (which PCT sprinters tend to do very often, I don't see hwo else will score for you.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
jandal7
I’ll remember you talking smack about Debesay later in the season Pfft
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [PCT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing
[CX] Listerijns & BoK

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
i.imgur.com/wM6Wok5.png
i.imgur.com/kDSWYiK.png
i.imgur.com/olRsxdu.png
 
redordead
I'm hoping Bilbao can score some as well, but otherwise the plan is to win all the KOM jersey's :lol:
 
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