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CT Preview/Predictions by Atlantius (Finished)
Atlantius
CT Preview/Predictions by Atlantius

This preview will be in several parts which will ultimately end up in a rankings prediction.

Part 1: A brief overview of the leaders of each team and how they stack up against the competition.

Part 2: A look at each terrain ranking the teams.

Part 1 and 2 will be the base of the numbers used for the final overall prediction.


Disclaimer: All numbers are based on my gutfeeling.
Edited by Atlantius on 16-08-2018 10:57

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Atlantius
The Leaders Scoring

RankTeamPts
1Valio - DeLaval9
2ENI - MOL11
GCN ProTeam11
Rothaus - Aegon11
5BNZ Cycling Team12
Team Cerveceria Costa Rica12
7Delvaux13
8Andorra Project - InGamba14
9Campari - Super Dry15
Oberfranken15
Swisslion Cycling Team15
12Equinor Pro Cycling16
Sauber Petronas Racing16
14Banco de Bogota17
Compal-Merida17
16Adastra - Argon 1818
17DK ┼Żalgiris21
Eddie Stobart21
19Telia-Brussels Airlines22


Combined Terrain Score

1Valio - DeLaval19
2Compal-Merida25,5
3GCN ProTeam26
4Rothaus - Aegon26,75
5Team Cerveceria Costa Rica29,5
6Swisslion Cycling Team30,5
7ENI - MOL30,75
8Campari - Super Dry31,5
9Sauber Petronas Racing34,25
10Delvaux35
11Andorra Project - InGamba39,5
12BNZ Cycling Team40,5
13Banco de Bogota42
14Telia-Brussels Airlines45,5
15Eddie Stobart46
16Oberfranken47,5
17Adastra - Argon 1850,5
18Equinor Pro Cycling52
19DK ┼Żalgiris58,5



Overall Prediction

LeaderTerrainOverall
1Valio - DeLaval111
2GCN ProTeam232,5
3Rothaus - Aegon243
4ENI - MOL274,5
5Team Cerveceria Costa Rica555
6Swisslion Cycling Team967,5
7Compal-Merida1428
8BNZ Cycling Team5128,5
9Campari - Super Dry988,5
10Delvaux7108,5
11Andorra Project - InGamba8119,5
12Sauber Petronas Racing12910,5
13Oberfranken91612,5
14Banco de Bogota141313,5
15Equinor Pro Cycling121815
16Eddie Stobart171516
17Adastra - Argon 18161716,5
18Telia-Brussels Airlines191416,5
19DK ┼Żalgiris171918


Edited by Atlantius on 16-08-2018 10:59

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Atlantius
The Leaders Scoring

Methodology:
Scoring potential for the teams 4 strongest riders have been evaluated and scored on a 1-10 scale where 1 is best in the division and 10 is without a chance.

Detailed numbers will not be revealed and most teams could move one or two points to either side if I did the same tomorrow.


Adastra - Argon 18

The team is dominated by Panayatov and Bardet, who both looks like they will be fighting for scraps all season.
They do have a decent sprinter an half-decent TT'er that can step up and take points if they sometimes avoid the big names.

Points: 18

Andorra Project - InGamba

Both Kiserlovski and Warbasse should score well in the stage races and the team even has one of the best TT'ers.
After that it pretty much ends

Points: 14

Banco de Bogota

Here we have an amazing team if you add some leaders on top.
Sepulveda is an interesting rider, but the climbers seem to weak to be able to get the top results needed and no other terrains will cntribute significantly either

Points: 17

BNZ Cycling Team

Carsi and Von Hoff will serve the team well, but will be hard to get the most out of as they can't get much seperate support.
Edmondson is an interesting rider, but can't be expected to deliver regular top results, but should always be there about.

Points: 12

Campari - Super Dry

A very strong puncher in Ben Nasser and a very strong cobbler in Drucker sees the team likely to get a lot of top 5's in classics while the wins could be far in between.
Neither the climbing nor the sprint leaders should deliver huge amounts of points.

Points: 15

Compal-Merida

Suaza could be a great asset despite his one-sidedness, while Zaini seems a ibt too one-sided to get the biggest points.
Matthews will likely have a hard time getting into the points on stages unless he manages to go where the big names are not. Should be able to fight for top 10's in flat classics though.

Points: 17

Delvaux

A great sprint team with amazing support.
Breen could do well on the cobbles and Kadri could be a good stage hunter, but.

Points: 13

DK ┼Żalgiris

A strong nationality focus can have its price and DK ┼Żalgiris is paying it in a complete lack of top leaders but great depth.
Siskevicius could be the one to upset the order on several occasions and in flat stage races with some TT'ing Kruopis should have a chance to do well.
The rest is likely to take part in races as well.

Points: 17

Eddie Stobart

If planned well Travis Meyer could be a beast.
Thorsen however won't deliver to often due to his awful backup leaving Cimolai as likely being the 2nd best scoring option (which isn't too good).

Points: 21

ENI - MOL

If Di Maggio doesn't deliver they have a solid back-up option in Serry.
Pomoshnikov and Vanoverschelde should be good for some fine points as well.

Points: 11

Edited by Atlantius on 12-08-2018 22:50

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Sykkel_Freak
Nicely done. Will be interesting to see the full ranking prediction Smile

In terms of my own team, I think 7th is a very realistic prediction. No doubt there's a lot of teams with similar quality this season, so I wouldn't be surprised if we ended there or even a bit lower, even though I'm hoping to finish slightly higher.
 
Atlantius
The Leaders Scoring

Methodology:
Scoring potential for the teams 4 strongest riders have been evaluated and scored on a 1-10 scale where 1 is best in the division and 10 is without a chance.

Detailed numbers will not be revealed and most teams could move one or two points to either side if I did the same tomorrow.

ENI - MOL

If Di Maggio doesn't deliver they have a solid back-up option in Serry.
Pomoshnikov and Vanoverschelde should be good for some fine points as well.

Points: 11

Equinor Pro Cycling

The top riders all have great back-up stats. The big problem is that they haven't really got the main stats to be backed up.
Sadly this is a batch of leaders that needs to celebrate each top 5 like a win to be able to keep up the spirit throughout the season.
They do have every chance to get a bunch of top 10's that could see them still ending up with a decent score.

Points: 16

GCN ProTeam

A good all-round team with no big leader, but no big gaps either and some good depth that should serve them well.
Should be able to score almost everywhere.

Points: 11

Oberfranken

Ratiy is one of the best climbers/stage races in the division, which really has to carry this team.
Van Poppel has some great back-up stats for the stage races, but he should have a very hard time really mixing in for the sprints.

Points: 15

Rothaus - Aegon

A peculiar sprint team with a main sprinter without acceleration and a bunch of leadoutmen with huge accelerations.
The question is if they will help Van Herden och make him blow up. Neverthless being able to field a decent sprinter in every race should see them with a lot of good stage results.
Outside the sprints it's mainly cobbles and to some extent TT'ing that should save them.

Points: 11

Sauber Petronas Racing

They have a great sprinter in Salleh and a decent cobbler in Taubel and the team to support them.
Apart from those it's hard to see where the big points should come from though.

Points: 16

Swisslion Cycling Team

Reus can be great, but can also end up with a lot of unresolved possibilities depending on how his races pan out. Nevertheless relying on a TT'er is always a risky move due to their low number of chances.
Zhupa is a nice options for the cobbles, but also very alone.
Guill├ęn is a beast if he somehow manages to actually be there to contest a sprint, which likely won't happpen often.

Points: 15

Team Cerveceria Costa Rica

Actuall a pretty well-rounded team. One of the best cobblers in the division, decent puncher in Teuns, decent climber in Cstagli and decent sprinter in Colbrelli.
Only Kluge can be expected to battle for wins though.

Points: 12

Telia-Brussels Airlines

There is a lot of pressure on Nizzolo even though he isn't expected to be able to do much against the many top sprinters of the division.
Haceck├Ż has the skillset to do well on some mountanous stages if the big climbing teams decide to let him go.

Points: 22

Valio - DeLaval

Away goes all objectivity (I have tried being objective though, time will tell how well I've managed...).
Gautier is one of the best punchers in the division, K├Ânig and Manninen strong challengers to the very best and Kulppi likely to be in the top 10 in a bunch of cobbled classics.

Points: 9


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Atlantius
Sykkel_Freak wrote:
Nicely done. Will be interesting to see the full ranking prediction Smile

In terms of my own team, I think 7th is a very realistic prediction. No doubt there's a lot of teams with similar quality this season, so I wouldn't be surprised if we ended there or even a bit lower, even though I'm hoping to finish slightly higher.

Thanks. I think the division looks very close and looking at the numbers just a +-2 for your team would see you finish anywhere from 2nd to 11th.

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sammyt93
I know this is just leader scoring being rated but I do feel like you have missed our TT strength as the description doesn't mention it at all. Having the joint best pure TT rider and such a strength in prologues should net us some solid points.

I'd almost go as far as predicting roughly 150 to 200 points for Gabby which should make him one of our 4 leaders, if not he is definitely the wildcard that should make us outperform your prediction as he is capable of competing with he PCT's best, not just dominating CT, even if it is in a specialisation that is rare to find.
 
Atlantius
sammyt93 wrote:
I know this is just leader scoring being rated but I do feel like you have missed our TT strength as the description doesn't mention it at all. Having the joint best pure TT rider and such a strength in prologues should net us some solid points.

I'd almost go as far as predicting roughly 150 to 200 points for Gabby which should make him one of our 4 leaders, if not he is definitely the wildcard that should make us outperform your prediction as he is capable of competing with he PCT's best, not just dominating CT, even if it is in a specialisation that is rare to find.

I definitely missed Olman in this part, sorted by average and mainly looked at the top 7-8 or something to identify leaders and both Olman and and Chavanne came in lower.
Still doubt that Olman will do a lot though as his terrible back-up stats will disadvantage him in stage race TT's.

Chavanne could be the one to lift you but there's not a lot of races for him on the CT calendar as he really needs and opening Prl followed by some flat stags to score best possibly IMO.

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Atlantius
Terrain Scoring

Methodology:
Teams have been ranked separately on each terrain based on a subjective evaluation of leader strength and team depth.

Teams that are deemed without any viable options are given the average rank of the remaining spots.

These will then be combined to a final Terrain ranking where TT's and the worst other terrain are weighted half as pure TT'ers doesn't get as many chances as others and that it's only possibly to ignore a terrain half. If ignoring more than one it will either lead to more races with no leader or more C1 races, which usually has less scoring for CT teams.

Stage racers/climbers

The top of the field when it comes to climbers/stage racers seem very close with Kiserlovski and Ratiy looking the two strongest leaders.
Kiserlovski should have the advantage due to being more well-rounded while Oberfranken looks to have a slightly better back-up.

Below them it's very close but I have put GCN Pro Team and Compal-Merida on equal footing but both Pinot and Suaza could be threatened by better allrounders in many stage races.

Of the 79-climbing leaders I'd put Pomoshnikov on a slight disadvantage compared to K├Ânig, Costagli and Anacona due to quite one-sided support tam without much depth.
Anaconas chosen style of racing which won't see him attack even if chased by a bear makes it doubtful whether he'll deliver. Banco de Bogota do have some great depth but thee big question is how they will handle the race strategy.

Andorra Project - InGamba1
Oberfranken1
GCN ProTeam3
Compal-Merida3
Valio - DeLaval5
Team Cerveceria Costa Rica5
ENI - MOL8
Banco de Bogota5
Swisslion Cycling Team9
Telia-Brussels Airlines10
Adastra - Argon 1811
Campari - Super Dry12
Eddie Stobart13
BNZ Cycling Team14
Equinor Pro Cycling15
Sauber Petronas Racing17,5
DK ┼Żalgiris17,5
Rothaus - Aegon17,5
Delvaux17,5



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Atlantius
Terrain Scoring

Hills

Despite some weak backups for Di Maggio ENI - MOL has some great hilly depth which earnes them the spot as the best team for the hills.
Close to Di Maggio in the fight for top puncher of the division is Gautier (I could be biased here). The Frenchman has some good backup stats and both the acceleration and fighting spirit to decide things. He doesn't have that one lietenant who will be there for the finale though.
If things come to a sprint Travis Meyer is your man and if planned well he could be worth a lot to Eddie Stobart.

Ben Nasser has a good sprint and strong back-up stats as well, which bring his team to 4th ranked hilly team despite Compal having some great depth.

ENI - MOL1
Valio - DeLaval2
Eddie Stobart3
Campari - Super Dry4
Compal-Merida5
DK ┼Żalgiris6
BNZ Cycling Team7
Team Cerveceria Costa Rica8
Banco de Bogota9
Equinor Pro Cycling10
GCN ProTeam11
Rothaus - Aegon12
Delvaux13
Swisslion Cycling Team14
Sauber Petronas Racing15
Telia-Brussels Airlines16
Andorra Project - InGamba18
Oberfranken18
Adastra - Argon 1818


Sprinters

Guarnieri is the standout top sprinter and has the team to back him up, which makes for a clear first plae for Delvaux in the sprinters ranking.
Van Heerden has a great sprint but needs a mile or so to get up in speed. Luckily for him he has a great leadout man for the job in Coutinho - unless the portuguese just jumps away and ruins it all, but I'll give Rothaus the benefit of the doubt. Could either be a dominating duo or complete failure.

While Thorsen and Guill├ęn have great sprints they have equally great trouble actually making it to the finish line with the bunch so they will have a hard time delivering.
BNZ has a strong duo in Carsi and Von Hoff, who could help them get some very good results along the season.
Again I might be biased but Manninen is a great new name among the top sprinters, good backups and even a strong prologue which could help him snatch up a few GC points even. Having a leadout man capable of taking podium finishes in GT sprint while unmaxed last year as well as some more strong support on the flat doesn't hurt either.

Sallehs support team makes him slightly outedge Keukeleire, who again looks better than the rest thanks to a decent cobble-stats that could make him a contender in some races/stages with very easy cobbles.

Delvaux1
Rothaus - Aegon2
BNZ Cycling Team3
Valio - DeLaval4
Sauber Petronas Racing5
GCN ProTeam6
Telia-Brussels Airlines7
ENI - MOL8
Swisslion Cycling Team9
Compal-Merida10
Equinor Pro Cycling11
DK ┼Żalgiris12
Team Cerveceria Costa Rica13
Adastra - Argon 1814
Banco de Bogota15
Campari - Super Dry16
Oberfranken17
Eddie Stobart18
Andorra Project - InGamba19


Cobbles

For me Ricardo Ferreira stands out as the top cobbler. Solid back-up stats, decent sprint, decent hill. Not the best support squad though.
Below him Kluge is a rider, who thanks to massive flat stat and a very good print is likely to outperform his cobbles-stat a bit and will see him fight for the win more often than not.
Similar but slightly weaker we have Breen, Zhupa and Drucker.
Zhupa and Drucker look very alone on their teams though, which seems them lose out to the great depth of Sauber in the ranking.

Rothaus - Aegon1
Team Cerveceria Costa Rica2
Delvaux3
Sauber Petronas Racing4
Campari - Super Dry5
Swisslion Cycling Team5
GCN ProTeam7
Valio - DeLaval8
ENI - MOL9
Andorra Project - InGamba10
Compal-Merida11
Oberfranken12
Adastra - Argon 1813
Eddie Stobart14
Telia-Brussels Airlines15
Banco de Bogota16
DK ┼Żalgiris17
BNZ Cycling Team18
Equinor Pro Cycling19


Time Trials

With 3 of the 6 best TT'ers of the division obviously Swisslion has to take the top spot here.
Andorra has on of the top TT'ers as well as some good depth that sees them to 2nd place.

For the remaining a combination of backup stats for GC options and TTT-depth have been considered.

Swisslion Cycling Team1
Andorra Project - InGamba2
Sauber Petronas Racing3
Compal-Merida4
Campari - Super Dry5
Rothaus - Aegon6
Adastra - Argon 187
Valio - DeLaval8
GCN ProTeam9
Banco de Bogota10
Telia-Brussels Airlines11
DK ┼Żalgiris12
Equinor Pro Cycling13
Eddie Stobart14
BNZ Cycling Team15
Team Cerveceria Costa Rica16
Oberfranken17
Delvaux18,5
ENI - MOL18,5


Edited by Atlantius on 16-08-2018 10:52

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Atlantius
Terrain Scoring

For the combined Terrain Score I have reduced the value of the teams worst terrain by 2 as it is only possible to half ignore a terrain due to it's C2HC presence.
If ignoring more than one terrain you need to pick a lot of C1 races where competition is tougher thus I have only discounted on terrain.

TT-impact have also been reduced to half since pure TT'ers have less chances than others. TT-ers with good GC chances will generally have impacted other rankings.

Combined Terrain Score

1Valio - DeLaval19
2Compal-Merida25,5
3GCN ProTeam26
4Rothaus - Aegon26,75
5Team Cerveceria Costa Rica29,5
6Swisslion Cycling Team30,5
7ENI - MOL30,75
8Campari - Super Dry31,5
9Sauber Petronas Racing34,25
10Delvaux35
11Andorra Project - InGamba39,5
12BNZ Cycling Team40,5
13Banco de Bogota42
14Telia-Brussels Airlines45,5
15Eddie Stobart46
16Oberfranken47,5
17Adastra - Argon 1850,5
18Equinor Pro Cycling52
19DK ┼Żalgiris58,5



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Atlantius
Overall Prediction

As I expect the final result to be somewhere in between the two models I have also made a final overall prediction based on the average finishing position of the teams.

LeaderTerrainOverall
1Valio - DeLaval111
2GCN ProTeam232,5
3Rothaus - Aegon243
4ENI - MOL274,5
5Team Cerveceria Costa Rica555
6Swisslion Cycling Team967,5
7Compal-Merida1428
8BNZ Cycling Team5128,5
9Campari - Super Dry988,5
10Delvaux7108,5
11Andorra Project - InGamba8119,5
12Sauber Petronas Racing12910,5
13Oberfranken91612,5
14Banco de Bogota141313,5
15Equinor Pro Cycling121815
16Eddie Stobart171516
17Adastra - Argon 18161716,5
18Telia-Brussels Airlines191416,5
19DK ┼Żalgiris171918



As can be seen in the numbers I expect a fairly close CT this season. Honestly I'm a bit surprised as to how clearly the model predicts my team to win - I do think the title battle will be closer but I hope the team can live up to my predictions (Guess I have to finally accept favourite status when my own calculations re like this).

What do you think about it all?


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redordead
Would be very happy with 6th although since we are strong in TT's and average everywhere else, our predicted finish might be more volatile than others.

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Poga─Źar
 
Yellow Jersey
Not getting Ferreira at this point is really hurting but I'm hoping Warbasse to be worth it.. Still great prediction! Although I'm expecting a better outcome for myself Smile
 
Sykkel_Freak
The overall prediction looks fairly good, with maybe a few odd ones sticking out. I would for example be very surprised to see Rothaus - Aegon in the top 5, although they have a very skilled manager Wink Can't see Ferreira picking up big points as consistently as a rider like Kluge, and there are many question marks with regards to their sprint team in my opinion.

I do think the model is very much right in predicting your team to win though. Your squad is very convincing in terms of both depth, quality of leaders and variety, and will be very tough to challenge for other teams.
 
quadsas
I dont like this one Grin
 
Atlantius
redordead & Yellow Jersey: As the numbers show I think it will be very close in 6-12th especially, I only have to b slightly off for your teams to change several positions.

Sykkel: I was surprised to see Rothaus so high in the end as well actually, but decided to just stick with my original assessments of the parts. The thing with Ferreira is that I think he could very well be sufficiently strong to get rid of Kluge early on. It could even be that his lack of helpers make him attack earlier to make that even more likely to happen.

quadsas: I understand Wink
Both Siskevicious and Kruopis are the kind of riders that could be the big surprise of the season to lift you up a bit though, but I think you lack the leader(s) to get a lot of wins even though I really like your team actually.

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dominox
Thanks for the all the job you did. Great read. It seems my top 10 goal will be really hard to get with all those previews having Banco outside the top 10 Grin
 
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