Here's first of all a look at the Final Results compared to the Average Predicted Results (APR), along with the Highest (HPP) and Lowest Predicted Position (LPP).
Final
Team
APR
Diff
HPP
LPP
1
Wiesenhof-Andrtiz
1
0
1
3
2
Porto - Prio
2
0
1
3
3
Hugo Boss
10
7
3
22
4
Strava
18
14
10
30
5
Team Telkom for Africa
11
6
4
23
6
Spotify - Haglöfs
7
1
3
18
7
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
19
12
15
25
8
Ayubowan!
9
1
7
13
9
Meiji - JR East
3
-6
2
6
10
Generali - AXA
16
6
10
26
11
Coldeportes
5
-6
5
14
12
Arrinera
12
0
8
14
13
Banc na hÉireann
8
-5
5
15
14
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
15
1
7
20
15
Valio - DeLaval
24
9
19
27
16
Netia - Norske Skog
26
10
19
29
17
Team UBS
4
-13
4
12
18
Eritel - Sonatrach
14
-4
10
21
19
Karcher-Adira
6
-13
4
14
20
Euskaltel
25
5
17
29
21
Compal-Merida
20
-1
16
28
22
Indosat - ANZ
13
-9
8
20
23
Shimano - Siam Cement
17
-6
6
28
24
Flores - Ceitec
21
-3
20
25
25
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
29
4
26
29
26
Vontobel
23
-3
15
29
27
Azteca - NBCSN
27
0
18
27
28
Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
28
0
17
29
29
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
22
-7
16
24
30
SanCor
30
0
23
30
Below, however, you can find a perhaps more interesting look at how off every prediction was with regard to each team.
MARSUPILAMI
Total Score: 213/465; 252 Positions Off; 46% Accuracy
Spoiler
Pred
Team
Final
Difference
1
Porto - Prio
2
1
2
Meiji - JR East
9
7
3
Wiesenhof-Andrtiz
1
2
4
Karcher-Adira
19
15
5
Banc na hÉireann
13
8
6
Shimano - Siam Cement
23
17
7
Team UBS
17
10
8
Indosat - ANZ
22
14
9
Team Telkom for Africa
5
4
10
Eritel - Sonatrach
18
8
11
Arrinera
12
1
12
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
14
2
13
Ayubowan!
8
5
14
Coldeportes
11
3
15
Vontobel
26
11
16
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
7
9
17
Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
28
11
18
Spotify - Haglöfs
6
12
19
Compal-Merida
21
2
20
Flores - Ceitec
24
4
21
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
29
8
22
Hugo Boss
3
19
23
SanCor
30
7
24
Valio - DeLaval
15
9
25
Netia - Norske Skog
16
9
26
Generali - AXA
10
16
27
Azteca - NBCSN
27
0
28
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
25
3
29
Euskaltel
20
9
30
Strava
4
26
sgdanny
Total Score: 303/465; 162 Positions Off; 65% Accuracy
Spoiler
Pred
Team
Final
Difference
1
Wiesenhof-Andrtiz
1
0
2
Meiji - JR East
9
7
3
Porto - Prio
2
1
4
Team UBS
17
13
5
Team Telkom for Africa
5
0
6
Coldeportes
11
5
7
Banc na hÉireann
13
6
8
Hugo Boss
3
5
9
Indosat - ANZ
22
13
10
Shimano - Siam Cement
23
13
11
Arrinera
12
1
12
Ayubowan!
8
4
13
Spotify - Haglöfs
6
7
14
Karcher-Adira
19
5
15
Generali - AXA
10
5
16
Compal-Merida
21
5
17
Strava
4
13
18
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
14
4
19
Valio - DeLaval
15
4
20
Flores - Ceitec
24
4
21
Eritel - Sonatrach
18
3
22
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
7
15
23
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
29
6
24
Netia - Norske Skog
16
8
25
Azteca - NBCSN
27
2
26
Vontobel
26
0
27
Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
28
1
28
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
25
3
29
Euskaltel
20
9
30
SanCor
30
0
matt17br
Total Score: 321/465; 144 Positions Off; 69% Accuracy
Spoiler
Pred
Team
Final
Difference
1
Wiesenhof-Andrtiz
1
0
2
Porto - Prio
2
0
3
Spotify - Haglöfs
6
3
4
Meiji - JR East
9
5
5
Hugo Boss
3
2
6
Team UBS
17
11
7
Karcher-Adira
19
12
8
Banc na hÉireann
13
5
9
Ayubowan!
8
1
10
Arrinera
12
2
11
Coldeportes
11
0
12
Eritel - Sonatrach
18
6
13
Indosat - ANZ
22
9
14
Strava
4
10
15
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
14
1
16
Generali - AXA
10
6
17
Team Telkom for Africa
5
12
18
Euskaltel
20
2
19
Netia - Norske Skog
16
3
20
Flores - Ceitec
24
4
21
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
7
14
22
Vontobel
26
4
23
Azteca - NBCSN
27
4
24
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
29
5
25
Compal-Merida
21
4
26
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
25
1
27
Valio - DeLaval
15
12
28
Shimano - Siam Cement
23
5
29
Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
28
1
30
SanCor
30
0
tastasol
Total Score: 319/465; 146 Positions Off; 68% Accuracy
Spoiler
Pred
Team
Final
Difference
1
Porto - Prio
2
1
2
Wiesenhof-Andrtiz
1
1
3
Hugo Boss
3
0
4
Spotify - Haglöfs
6
2
5
Banc na hÉireann
13
8
6
Meiji - JR East
9
3
7
Ayubowan!
8
1
8
Arrinera
12
4
9
Karcher-Adira
19
10
10
Generali - AXA
10
0
11
Coldeportes
11
0
12
Team UBS
17
5
13
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
14
1
14
Indosat - ANZ
22
8
15
Strava
4
11
16
Compal-Merida
21
5
17
Eritel - Sonatrach
18
1
18
Azteca - NBCSN
27
9
19
Shimano - Siam Cement
23
4
20
Flores - Ceitec
24
4
21
Netia - Norske Skog
16
5
22
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
29
7
23
Team Telkom for Africa
5
18
24
Euskaltel
20
4
25
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
7
18
26
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
25
1
27
Valio - DeLaval
15
12
28
Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
28
0
29
Vontobel
26
3
30
SanCor
30
0
jph27
Total Score: 309/465; 156 Positions Off; 66% Accuracy
Spoiler
Pred
Team
Final
Difference
1
Wiesenhof-Andrtiz
1
0
2
Porto - Prio
2
0
3
Meiji - JR East
9
6
4
Team Telkom for Africa
5
1
5
Coldeportes
11
6
6
Team UBS
17
11
7
Spotify - Haglöfs
6
1
8
Karcher-Adira
19
11
9
Ayubowan!
8
1
10
Strava
4
6
11
Indosat - ANZ
22
11
12
Eritel - Sonatrach
18
6
13
Generali - AXA
10
3
14
Arrinera
12
2
15
Banc na hÉireann
13
2
16
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
29
13
17
Hugo Boss
3
14
18
Shimano - Siam Cement
23
5
19
Valio - DeLaval
15
4
20
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
14
6
21
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
7
14
22
Flores - Ceitec
24
2
23
Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
28
5
24
Euskaltel
20
4
25
Vontobel
26
1
26
Netia - Norske Skog
16
10
27
Azteca - NBCSN
27
0
28
Compal-Merida
21
7
29
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
25
4
30
SanCor
30
0
SportingNonsense
Total Score: 325/465; 140 Positions Off; 70% Accuracy
I feel like this just proves that PCT is the most Manager dependent league out of the three the combination of needing to choose your schedule and most teams having developed over at least a year means Planning is paramount
Side note Fantastic to see Compal Merida being competitive and staying up easily Bjarnte first few seasons were very tough but he's coming into his own now
Also Swedbank going up is terrific to see another long term name along with Porto and Volkswagen
Nice to see some very accurate predictions. Even nicer everyone did not see me make it and were proven wrong. But not as spectacular as what Strava, VisitUkraine and Netia did of course. Also In-n-Out doing the exact opposite of us, no one saw them go down and yet they could only keep one team behind them.
Mars prediction probably the greatest prediction mistake in a very long time. Boy am I glad Strava proved him wrong
Overall, SN with the honours of taking the prediction win, however I feel like previous years have been far better predicted. This is probably due to the enhancing quality of riders (statinflation etc). I imagine the mountain overload was hard to make out and see through, especially with the selection of stage races in mind.
Thanks matt.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Gustavovskiy wrote:
It's outstanding how Strava managed to fool everyone and finish in promotion area. Much like Visitukraine tbh. Kudos Shonak and jp!
I don't think that Summerhill was the tipping point for the low interest I cobbles. I rather think it has to do with the teams that promotes into PT the previous season. Most of them had a big focus on cobbles while the teams with big climbers basically all remained in PCT for another season.
From SNs 2015 mathematic preview:
Northern Classics
1
Team Bpost
:
Vanspeybrouck
Albert
Stallaert
2
AMEX-Navigon
:
Baugnies
Breschel
De Haes
3
Azteca - NBCSN
:
Summerhill
Coronel
Farrar
4
Evonik - ELKO
:
Boonen
Flaksis
Ingels
5
Aegon - Lavazza
:
Vanmarcke
Boom
Nooytens
6
Lululemon/Bulgaria Blackfish
:
Thomas
Grashev
Sparling
7
Team TomTom
:
Maes
Verbist
Schoonbroodt
8
Gazelle
:
Veelers
Nuyens
Pozzato
9
Risa - Ergon
:
Trentin
Steurs
Juul-Jensen
10
Team Puma - SAP
:
Daniel
Declerq
Weber
It wouldn't be right if Bpost were anything other than the top cobbled team while in PCT and this remains the case this season, despite the new signings from the two American squads. While Bpost have strength elsewhere, Baugnies and Summerhill are likely to really feel the pressure of their team's hopes. Boonen will be a very interesting rider to watch, in his first season away from PT.
Of those 10 teams 6 promoted to PT. 2 disbanded. 1 relegated and only a single team remained in the division. Looking at that it's no surprise that the cobbles were a good way to score.
Overall, SN with the honours of taking the prediction win, however I feel like previous years have been far better predicted. This is probably due to the enhancing quality of riders (statinflation etc). I imagine the mountain overload was hard to make out and see through, especially with the selection of stage races in mind.
Yeah, it's hard to remember a year where predictions of any division strayed so far from reality. It's mostly due to how much planning dependant this season was if you wanted to do well.
VisitUkraine's success is mostly due to Cunego's flawless planning, in fact, I for one expected him to do well in the hilly races he would take part to, but didn't think fjhoekie would single-handedly take him to those kinds of races. You can safely say they would have been far from the top 15 if he was planned in a more "obvious" or "secure" way, so taking him to mountainous stage races as well, sort of like Ricco was planned by Aidan. Their other riders performed about right considering their past seasons, but despite the stat decrease, Cunego kept riding in a pretty perfect way.
Strava have proven everyone wrong - and they've fooled me again predictions-wise - because they're objectively doing something incredibly risky, but very high reward as it seems. If the cobbles campaign didn't go so much better than everyone thought, they wouldn't have probably even entered the top 10. Add to that that everyone underestimated Van der Sande capabilities - he was heavily helped by his great stamina - and you can see how they built their success. Heck, had I known that they would be performing so well I probably wouldn't have tipped them for the top 6/7.
I honestly can't really see why everyone was so underrating Netia's chances though. I had them in 19th which is the HPP, but they obviously had a bit more in them. They had Sanchez who couldn't come from a better season, and is one of the riders that was hurt the least by the stat decrease thanks to his low potential. Sure, no one in their right mind would have said he would repeat his performance, but he definitely was among the best puncheurs this season for PCT. Palini also was an important domestique/co-captain for him and let's not forget he was coming from a top 100 season in PT (!), so it wasn't hard to see they would go on to be one of the best puncheurs couples. Vantomme was planned very intelligently and definitely overperformed a bit, though.
Besides these 3 I also heavily underrated Telkom and Valio. I remember writing that they were going to benefit from their objectively dominant climbers depth, but that their domestiques' backups stats weren't high enough for them to aim for a good ranking result. Well clearly I was 100% wrong here! Bit of the same goes for Valio, but here I was even more clueless. To be fair, I did expect Lo Cicero would save them under the right circumstances, but I totally didn't foresee that PCM would consider him the favourite for so many races and so regularly when they lacked great secondary sprinters to help him along the road. This definitely contributed to their good overall finish and made up for their lack of top leadouts.
This same PCM 'bug' did hurt Spotify a bit, who still had a solid season. They had some of the best leadouts and the best or second best sprinter in the division, but the fact Lo Cicero was held in higher regard by the AI made sure Valio would always build a train and Spotify often would not do the same. All in all, these results draw some interesting conclusions that, if we stay with PCM 15 another season like it's highly plausible, will help more attentive managers and their promotion chances, and of course will make sure predictions are closer to PCM's preferences.
@knockout: Yes, definitely. Good catch, however the Summerhill's performances and undoubted legacy in this particular season think helped me him keep the interest low and that the void wasn't filled. Who has interest in riding someone who is winning almost every race by default?
Also, not that it matters much, but three of those 6 promoters were just passer-bys from PT back to PT, whilst Evonik was also just a passer-by in the end, so if there was some long-term cobbled planning going on (like Gazelle I imagine) it wouldn't have much influence on that. Overall last season's cobbled party was strong in overall rankings, maybe with Teunnisen, Zepunkte, Maes and other names, there were some stronger individual riders present tho (I'd have to look up the db for that to confirm..)
Nevertheless, Summerhill scored a lot more points previous season than in this one where the weaker competition was apparently. All the better really for Strava and Lierse that the low interest, big void and Summerhill dominance wasn't met this season, and like I said, we profited immensly off that.
Looking at this table made me think that maybe cobbles mean the way up to promotion. However in the latest SN prediction of the current season, only 3 of the 5 promoters were Top 10 listed cobbled teams and particularly Wiesenhof's Zepunke consisently underperformed. So cobbles alone doesn't make a successful promo-campaign, but maybe that's why at least in Strava's case we could focus on it almost exclusively.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
matt17br wrote:
Strava have proven everyone wrong - and they've fooled me again predictions-wise - because they're objectively doing something incredibly risky, but very high reward as it seems. If the cobbles campaign didn't go so much better than everyone thought, they wouldn't have probably even entered the top 10. Add to that that everyone underestimated Van der Sande capabilities - he was heavily helped by his great stamina - and you can see how they built their success. Heck, had I known that they would be performing so well I probably wouldn't have tipped them for the top 6/7.
Van der Sande was a great deal and I think he performed a bit better than where belongs bc of all the 79 sprinters, he has some great back-ups and they come into play when you select the right races, yes. Modolo was unfortunately very erractic, his killer ACC should have seen him at times higher positions + strong hill stats, but alas, what can you do, his sprint is only 78 after all.
As for the cobbles campaign, hm - I noticed that there was a huge deficit of pointscorers and I was lucky that at least Baugnies was bought to a reasonable price, whilst I wouldn't have mind Lierse's guys either. We had a strong CT cobbles campaign and building on that, I had the right helpers for the grunt work.
I'm not sure if it was so risky because a speciality you can plan well upon works wonders in PCT I think but then again, Baugnies could have underperformed like Zepunkte, that's true. I wonder, was it particularly risky for Ferrero to focus exclusively on hills in hindsight then? Sure I would have liked a way better hill squad (no Froome, no Ulissi.. uhm, yeah), maybe this was our biggest flaw, although Vanendert and Gilbert did well enough in the first half of the season.
What is really interesting about Strava is how they can transcend or adapt to the PT. Looking at the squad there are two riders that can score points on PT level. Baugnies and Vanendaert. And those can't even be expected to score high amounts of points. Vanendaert is a top 20-30 HI rider while Baugnies is a low end top 10 rider - which is OK at PT level.
What is very interesting for me, is the lack of development or easy to sell riders. Laurent Didier, Philippe Gilbert, Claudio Corioni and Bart de Backer are all decreasing in stats, and neither are strong enough to stay interesting for a PT team IMO. Laurent Didier can be kept, but can probably also be replaced by a similar stat'ed rider for 50-60K. Gilbert will be OK to keep, if his wages come down to 50K - which they won't. Corioni will be useless and De Backer will probably be an OK cobbled 5-6th helper. They all have the fact in common that they are not likely to have any worth in terms of sale.
Same goes for Vuillermoz, Belmokhtar, Pfingsten, Tulik, Kriek, Einsle and Zanotti. A very strong negotiator would be able to cash in 400K for them. In total.
Ermin van Wyk and Marc Potts are both stepping up to be decent domestiques.
Jelle Vanendaert was an obvious choice to put training into, but he isn't eligeble.
So left on are riders like Roux, van der Sande, Modolo and Baugnies who are all eligeble for training, but not really a viable solution. Perhaps Baugnies would be with 82COB, but I doubt he would score a significantly higher amount of points. 200 points probably.
So where are Strava going next season? A complete rebuild is IMO needed to stay up. I'm definately looking forward to it. It might be one of the easiest seasons in a while to actually rebuild, as there will be less teams but the same amount of riders. So the problem might not be substancial - but it's definately something to look at. There are obvious teams not to copy from the past two/three seasons...
Well said, SotD. I see much the same problems of my squad and I go d'accord in your excellent analysis of the squad, which basically is, that we are not good enough for PT. It'll be a fun experience to try to avoid the inevitable relegation actually. I have some ideas for where I'd like to see the team go and some strategies that may help me, but alas, this much depends on the open market of course and one thing is certain: we lack the depth and development that other teams have enjoyed, where they grew naturally over some seasons in the PCT and where they can maybe rely on some youngsters that are hitting peak or some well-earned former leaders that will be useful domestiques. Strava basically consists of a bulk of veterans and some maxed out good PCT riders but no one able to match PT.
Probably for us PT comes actually way too soon, at least looking at the current squad we are surely the weakest for PT. Then again, I wouldn't have wanted to not promote, because maybe this is the only chance we got, so I'm glad we made it. Back in CT, we had a good strategy of depth and continued in PCT with some specialization on cobbles and easy diversification with hills and sprints. Now in PT, due to the fixed race calendar and way higher level, these little tricks won't be enough to score frequently and stay up.
About the teams not to copy from: Great dea, always good to learn from the ones who didn't manage and learn from their mistaikes rather than just to look at the ones who succeeded, but I lack time to go through past seasons to analyse roster, failed planning and scoring opportunities, guess I'll have to trust that I manage through somehow
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
matt17br wrote:
VisitUkraine's success is mostly due to Cunego's flawless planning, in fact, I for one expected him to do well in the hilly races he would take part to, but didn't think fjhoekie would single-handedly take him to those kinds of races. You can safely say they would have been far from the top 15 if he was planned in a more "obvious" or "secure" way, so taking him to mountainous stage races as well, sort of like Ricco was planned by Aidan. Their other riders performed about right considering their past seasons, but despite the stat decrease, Cunego kept riding in a pretty perfect way.
Absolutely! Had the goal of signing either Ricco or Cunego pre-season, and was honestly aiming to get the guy in the stage races. However, with the insane amount of quality climbers entering the PCT I decided to go a different route, hills for Cunego, + a few suiting stage races like Japan, and use Nepomnyachsniy for the rest. Gamble paid off, Cunego did ride superbly and without him I would even have been in relegation danger no doubt. Prevar did do good again, winning another HC classic, and my sprinting team has been a bit better compared to last season, mainly by getting Vanderbiest and Ulanowski both in a few top 10s scoring good points, over 160 at Down Under Classic was an amazing start. Nepomnyachsniy has been a bit disappointing though this season, lacking his great results from last year, and adding a whole lot of mediocre to bad results, mainly influenced by the huge amount of climbers of course, and a single bad day in Portugal which cost us a lot there. Will be interesting going up with no leader, or basically no riders who can even score points regularly...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game
