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Criterium du Dauphine Libere Discussion
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 30-11-2016 17:43
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Criterium du Dauphine Libere
| Category: PT | 8 Stages | terrain: mountain + long TT |  France |
Man-Game tradition at it's best on this route of the Criterium du Dauphine. Big names have won here in the past, and since the beginning in 2007 the winner has often doubled the victory up. Will this years winner step into the footprints of Gadret (2009 & 2010), Spilak (2011 & 2012) and Taaramae (2014 & 2015)? The only guy that is possible to double up his success here is  Phinney (2013), who at the same time is the only former winner on the startlist. Though  Taaramäe could make this an impressive 3 in a row this year and set a milestone in both his palmares and the history of the Dauphine. Earlier winners Moncoutie (2008, retired) or Dekker (2007, no wildcard) are sadly not able to compete with the best this year while the others decided to move into a different direction this season.
The fight for the GC already kicks up with the very long ITT on stage 2. Then we have a horrible screamer passing 3 huge climbs on stage 4, which should be counted as the queens stage. With its tremendous length surely endurance will play a tole in there. After a dangerous hilly day, where you can't win but only lose the tour there are 3 mountain stages left to go at the very end. An easier but rather long one on stage 6 that finishes on another crucial mountain top, followed by a 19.2 kilometer mountain time trial that isn't too steep. But at the end we have another huge day passing 3 major climbs, where GC action should start right from the beginning of the day. A steep descent after a huge climb will close this race out in some extraordinary style. What a route!
| Mon | TT | Acc | Hil | Res | Rec | Sta |  Angel Madrazo | 85 | 77 | 72 | 76 | 80 | 81 | 81 |  Justo Tenorio | 84 | 80 | 66 | 76 | 76 | 79 | 78 |  Stefan Denifl | 84 | 72 | 65 | 76 | 71 | 76 | 75 |  Peter Velits | 83 | 75 | 68 | 76 | 74 | 76 | 75 | | Rein Taaramäe | 83 | 81 | 76 | 78 | 80 | 79 | 79 | | Taylor Phinney | 83 | 83 | 75 | 77 | 74 | 76 | 77 |  Timofey Kritskiy | 83 | 80 | 67 | 75 | 76 | 78 | 78 |  Mattia Cattaneo | 82 | 79 | 70 | 70 | 80 | 80 | 76 |  Martijn Keizer | 81 | 81 | 73 | 71 | 79 | 79 | 75 |  Tim Wellens | 81 | 72 | 68 | 75 | 80 | 76 | 79 |  Natnael Berhane | 81 | 65 | 68 | 75 | 74 | 73 | 77 |  David Abal | 81 | 77 | 73 | 70 | 77 | 76 | 74 | | Robert Kiserlovski | 80 | 72 | 66 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 72 |
Looking at how togh the race looks this year we should expect an epic spanish battle for the Dauphine title. This is possible because most of the of the other big guns are currently racing at the Tour of Suisse. The only 85er on the startlist has to be the outright favourite then, and his name is Angel Madrazo. Without "the Great", better known as the "Victim of Mr.Crashs Vuelta wreckfest", appearing and seeing Jose Attackon also not on the startlist it surely is the Gazelle' captains race to loose?
Well, we've learned this season that it is not all about main stats. But we'll count the favourites down on thir climbing ability of course:
Justo Tenorio should be the challenger #1. He has that spare TT advantage that should leve him in a decent position, but can that make up for the mountain stat difference and the weaker backups? Doubtable?
Stefan Denifl and Peter Velits are lacking everything to contest for the win of the race. Both could be very happy with a Top 5 here, especially looking at their disadvantages in the back-up stats, especially, accceleration, they are likely to find themselves on P5-10.
It's a whole different world for Rein Taaramäe. He knows how to win the race and has perfect back-ups. His acceleration and TT advantage will hurt the spaniard. Maybe a leaders bonus pretty early in the race for him to keep up with the mountain stat? He also has the option to gain time on the hilly stage, where he should be with the best. Highly competitive for making it 3.
Phinney has the similar skillset to the Estonian. #1 favourite for the leaders jersey bonus for the big mountain stage, but then it's about holding on to it. His sprint stat might help him for stage success at some point, but can't weight up for the clinical lack of resistance and also for the other lower energy stats. Top 3 is possible, but shouldn't be quite top notch for the victory. Still possible with the luck on the right side.
Kritskiy is kind of like Tenorio with 1 mountain stat lower. Surely a contestant for a Top 5, but normally not enough for the GC on this selective course.
Cattaneo, Keizer and Abal could be well in contension for the top spots, especially the first two have decent energy stats and a sweet acceleration to offer. Can that be a compensation for the lack of puncheur ability they still will suffer on despite the for them very fitting course.
Wellens and Berhane don't have the problem in the hills. But then there is the long time trial that should hurt the couple. Also the acceleration could hurt those. The Belgian still a very hot bet for a big shocker in the GC or for a stage win attacking a little bit earlier.
There are some more guys for some surprising minor places or mountain stage upsets in the game though. Favourized for these type of attempts are always the high acceleration riders, so it might be useful to have another list provided that contains the 2nd row climbers and their main back-ups looking at possible stage winners.
| Mo | Ac | Hi | | Mo | Ac | Hi | | Mo | Ac | Hi |  Bongiorno | 79 | 69 | 75 |  Campero | 78 | 71 | 70 |  Grmay | 77 | 71 | 74 | | Kudus | 79 | 69 | 74 |  Nesset | 78 | 69 | 73 | Kunshin | 77 | 71 | 73 | | Pantano | 79 | 68 | 71 |  Kohl | 78 | 69 | 72 | Teklehaimanot | 77 | 67 | 74 |  Solis | 79 | 67 | 60 | Elissonde | 78 | 66 | 73 | Kolar | 77 | 66 | 75 | | Samwel | 79 | 64 | 70 | Carapaz | 78 | 64 | 70 | Novak | 77 | 65 | 73 |  Brambilla | 79 | 63 | 76 |  Koch | 77 | 76 | 73 | Ignatenko | 77 | 63 | 73 | | Bennett | 78 | 73 | 76 |  Penasa | 77 | 76 | 72 | Camier | 77 | 62 | 67 | | Faiers | 78 | 73 | 71 | Barguil | 77 | 74 | 74 |  Destribois | 76 | 75 | 75 |  Medvedev | 78 | 72 | 64 | Vysna | 77 | 71 | 76 |  Dzhus | 76 | 75 | 70 |
The sprinters might be hurt from that course a little though. Stage 1 should be one for them, but with the bumpy terrain it won't be easy to cover all attacks and survive the steeper sections. Stage 3 might be a possibility, but the race has to be slow, some horrible steep sections are done and the finishing straight heads uphill. You need some puncheurs ability if you want to sprint for the victory there. The same goes for stage 5. After the long and tough 4th this should be a breakaways day, but if a wonder happens and the race is done very slow + the breakaway is weak then a reduced sprint is already possible. Maximum for the punchy sprinters though, but more likely a day for the puncheurs that are down in the GC quite far and held on the long rope or even a day for some surprising GC action of the better puncheurs involved there.
| Spr | Acc | Fla | Hil | | Hil | Acc | Fla | Mon | Spr |  Cavendish | 83 | 81 | 73 | 65 |  Levarlet | 79 | 68 | 69 | 74 | 63 | | Tzortzakis | 82 | 79 | 74 | 65 | Pichon | 79 | 76 | 71 | 70 | 63 | | Goss | 82 | 78 | 74 | 67 | Serry | 78 | 69 | 68 | 75 | 62 |  Grosu | 81 | 80 | 73 | 73 | Mohoric | 78 | 75 | 71 | 70 | 66 | | Boeckmans | 81 | 83 | 73 | 68 | Meyer | 78 | 77 | 74 | 69 | 72 | | Coquard | 81 | 83 | 73 | 64 | Zakarin | 77 | 73 | 72 | 73 | 65 | | Van der Lijke | 80 | 79 | 73 | 75 | Villella | 77 | 80 | 72 | 64 | 65 | | Vesely | 80 | 80 | 73 | 68 | Brambilla | 76 | 63 | 72 | 79 | 60 | | Van Poppel | 80 | 78 | 72 | 64 | Kastrantas | 75 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 62 | | Impey | 80 | 81 | 74 | 73 | Formolo | 75 | 70 | 71 | 76 | 69 | | Porsev | 79 | 80 | 74 | 66 | | Fl | Hi | Spr | Acc | Mon | | Wippert | 78 | 82 | 70 | 67 | Oss | 78 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 66 | | Bar | 77 | 76 | 77 | 70 | Kruijswijk | 78 | 72 | 65 | 75 | 76 | | Dzamastagic | 76 | 78 | 78 | 70 | Del Nero | 76 | 70 | 69 | 73 | 59 |
It's a surprisingly deep bunch of sprinters for basically one possible stage win. Most likely it's not even a green jersey on offer due to the number of mountain stages. Nevertheless we're finding 5 elite sprinters here competing for the opening stage and maybe a day in yellow?
By far the strongest train here is on the side of I-Gen, so normally Tzortzakis should have the perfect position. Cavendish and Goss lack a strong third man, and as PCM deals with sprints mostly they'll still get a train which couldbe a big threat for their success. Another tough point for the Aussies is that Wippert could well be the worst fitting leadout for Goss given the fact that his ability to accelerate is much higher than the one of his captain, which might lead to some ugly distractions and lost leaders in their sprint.
Pretty similar situation for the Slovenians if Coquard really should lead out Tzortzakis. The other way round might be better, but well it's PCM. It could either lead to a 1-2, or to a situation where the wheel of the greak is the perfect place to go. Which gives the idea that Boeckmans could be the man with the best chances from the right wheel.
Grosu, Van der Lijke and Impey are further guys that could profit from the right wheel, but their target should be the stage with the uprising finishing straight. There it should be a chaotic sprint, it might well be Eritel with the strongest train on the two punchy stages, if they can get their pucheurs depth to go for a leadout. Metinvest & Vesuvio haven't got any decent support for this.
The pure puncheurs are lacking in strength really here. Interesting names besides the GC guys and the hilly sprinters are ladder leader Levarlet, who needs a pretty early attack on the climbs. Even more interesting are the names of Pichon, Meyer, Villella, Vichot and Mohoric, who surely are far behind at the interesting stages for them. They could well come from a breakaway or a later punch, but have to avoid a battle with the GC riders.
For the Time Triallists it is all about the second stage. A chance to score big and maybe even to take over the leaders jersey for one or maximum two days. But the GC contencers could spoil the party, but most likely not in a way they'll surely do on the second ITT that's straight mountanious.
| TT | Res | | TT | Res | | TT | Res | | Phinney | 83 | 74 | Kritskiy | 80 | 76 | Abal | 77 | 77 | | Taaramäe | 81 | 80 | Cattaneo | 79 | 80 | Novak | 76 | 73 | | Keizer | 81 | 79 |  Bookwalter | 79 | 72 |  Velits | 75 | 74 | | Ford | 81 | 64 | Quaade | 78 | 70 | Faiers | 75 | 75 | | Tenorio | 80 | 76 | Madrazo | 77 | 80 | Wellens | 72 | 80 |
A lot of GC riders into the mix, that will care more about gaining some time on their opponence than winning one stage. Phinney has to be the man to beat, and both Taaramäe and Keizer have a decent Res advantage on him to do so. Ford, Bookwalter and Quaade are the pure TT guys with the best chances for a specialists win here.
Obviously we close out the preview with a look deep into the startlist, so that any loanees or hidden gems can be found:
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| roturn |
Posted on 30-11-2016 17:55
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Quite afraid of that 5th stage.
Hopefully Bennett and Villella can help Keizer to survive this one without too much time loss.
Then something around 5th-8th should be possible. |
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 30-11-2016 18:01
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Not got much hope here really, something surprising for Kohl maybe but low low low expectations.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 30-11-2016 19:21
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Now that's one in-depth preview 
This race's route looks absolutely amazing, not a stage where the GC can't get shaken up. And the startlist is so full of riders close to each other quality wise. Absolutely looking forward to see how it pans out. My money is on Taaramae tho.
Thanks for the race, and good luck to all!
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Posted on 24-11-2024 22:19
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| SotD |
Posted on 30-11-2016 19:35
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We have some horrible luck in the planning here. Both Tzortzakis and Coquard would have been top 3 material in the Tour de Suisse, here Tzortzakis might not even be the 3rd strongest. Similar in terms of climbs, where Campero would have done a better job in Suisse, while Vasyliv would have done nothing spectacular no matter where he was positioned.
Some managers will definately bite their nails seeing these startlists in comparisson as some have season defining results here, and while they could have landed 300-400 points in Suisse they are likely to score 125-200 points here instead. Luckily none of these races are really important to me, but in order to have the slightest chance of a podium we need a stagewin on that stage 1. Otherwise we are looking to score 100 points from both races in total, and have something like 1300-1500 points to the podium.
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| knockout |
Posted on 30-11-2016 20:12
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I think Taaramae is the clear favourite to win this and his team can really need it! I sent every climber I have hoping that they no breaks and perhaps get a top 25 GC from Koch but I'm not expecting anything.
Must have thought that Dzamastagic is valuable enough himself to not send him as VS leadout in Switzerland so I hope he can get a top 5 in the sprints. Ah well, let me dream
Sprinter field is interesting. Defo was a good idea to send VS otherwise 
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| ember |
Posted on 30-11-2016 22:35
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Admittedly we've got nothing here. Maybe a breakaway appearance or two, that's all I can ask for.
Will be a thrilling race to follow with many, many of the heavy hitters being present. Greaty in-depth preview, Croatia14! |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 01-12-2016 15:20
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On paper it should be better than Suisse, but I have my doubts.
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| FroomeDog99 |
Posted on 01-12-2016 16:43
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Kudus is our main hope here, hopefully he can get into the top 20 and at least get some points. |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 02-12-2016 11:31
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Great preview!
This is Madrazo's last chance to turn a disappointing season into a decent one. It would be shameful if he ends the season with less than 1000 points, so his minimum goal is to score 257. This means he needs success in both GC and stages.
Looking at the start-list this should be possible. I consider Taaramäe his biggest rival, followed by Tenorio and Phinney. Normally these guys will all gain time on Madrazo in the long TT. So the key question is: will Angel be able to distance them in the mountains? Especially stage 4 looks promising in that regard because its epic length and huge amount of climbing might give him that little extra advantage he needs to finally shine.
Looking forward!
Edited by DubbelDekker on 02-12-2016 13:25
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 02-12-2016 11:33
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No GT threat, so finally some breakaways please!
Goss and Ford will hopefully add some points here and there.
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| roturn |
Posted on 02-12-2016 13:59
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Huge ride there by Vilella. Absolutely beasting it and fully deserved in the KoM jersey. Hope he attacks at least another time to potentially even have a chance for the KoM win in the end.
Thurau must have crashed I guess as a 75 puncher being solo as very last would be weird otherwise. But support for Keizer is given by them all.
Well done Eritel for that win. Impey struggling in PCT but taking the stage in PT. I-Gen unfortunately in 2nd only. |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 02-12-2016 14:00
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Good to see my boys trying. Too bad Martens didn't get into botd.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 02-12-2016 14:01
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If only SN was here to see all of this Solid birthday gift 
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 02-12-2016 14:26
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Need phiney to show big here and he starts the tour with an 11th on a sprint stage which is hopefully a good sign now to ace the TT and put us in a good position to see whether training his mountain stat was worth it |
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| SotD |
Posted on 02-12-2016 14:53
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Argh damnit! Haller did such a great leadout, and then Coquard managed to fuck it up by going for himself. But seriously it sucks to see that many points go away because of a PCT team. Damn those wildcards (when it goes against your team only, ofc  ).
This time it was the difference between me getting 46 points (which I got) and those 76 I would have gotten otherwise. Also I would have gotten another 3 points from being 2nd in the points competition after the TT - Phinney being 1st after gaining points here. Now it's going to be 1 or 0. (Must likely 1 shared with some TTer).
Oh well. It was atleast somewhat what we have hoped for and calculated on. We would have loved those additional 30 (32) points though, to make these two crap races, in terms of points, decent.
We'll take what we can, though. Hopefully Novak can get a good TT result - Probably not a top 10 stage ride, but maybe a 15th or so to get in a decent shout at a top 20 GC overall.
Stage 3 is definately too hard for Tzortzakis, Coquard and/or Haller, so we need a lucky breakaway there instead - Which we probably won't get as PCM sees either of these as stage favorites.
Oh well, so far so good. I'm glad I'm not Red Bull or Jayco'z. Those sprinters fucked it up big time here...
A lot of riders lost time here, so I guess stage 3 will be interesting to follow. Riders like Pantano, Penasa, Zakarin, Pichon, Edmondson and Kolar will be good bets I think.
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| Roman |
Posted on 02-12-2016 15:28
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Nice leadout by Haller, happy to see him helping Festina wi... just missing on a win! Vesely decent sprint as well, every top 10 result counts for him.
Velits hopefully in for the battle for top 5 overall.
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| knockout |
Posted on 02-12-2016 15:43
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Koch losing time is good for his chances to join a break or hunt the KoM. ..
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 02-12-2016 16:03
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Excellent; Madrazo survived stage 1
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 02-12-2016 16:59
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Kohl gets dropped on the hills but Cavendish is up there?!? Hoping this means he's going for breakaways...
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