Thoughts on the Route:

The percorso for this year's Giro d'Italia is once again very well-designed, although not quite as well as last year's. However it is a very risky route, as it is almost completely at the mercy of the weather gods; a mixed blessing as while we could have another Val Martello 2014, we could also have another Val Martello 2013.

We start off in yet another GT start in the Netherlands, this time the region of Gelderland is in the spotlight, and it's predictably flat, although thankfully we have a long prologue to kick things off and get our first look at how everyone's feeling. We then fly down to the south of Italy and, following a rest day, start to work our way northwards beginning with two flattish stages. However, they're typical Giro 'flat' stages, with lumps and bumps at key places - Stage 4 to Praia a Mare has a 1.8km @ 7.7% climb under 10km to go and the last km of Stage 5 to Benevento is slightly uphill and on pavé. Stage 6 sees the classic Montevergine-style early MTF with a long, slow but quite inconsistent drag up to the ski resort at Aremogna, so it's quite similar to the Abetone stage from last year's Giro, if you will. A flat stage then takes us further up north, before we are reunited with sterrato! While it's not exactly Montalcino 2010, it's still a pretty serious climb on strade bianche, and it should be an interesting stage that the GC contenders will have to be wary of (insert cliché about banana skins here). There's a tricky finale to the stage as well. Week 1 is rounded off with a TT typical of recent Giro time-trials - reasonably long, rolling and through vineyards. This is a tough TT, very hilly and up and down all day, but while it's not a pure flat power course it will still separate out the contenders properly.

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Week 2 starts with a very nice-looking medium-mountain stage, never-ending small ascents before a finale of Mortirolo-Aprica in miniature, with a steep climb to Pian del Falco followed by a shallow ascent to Sestola (very much a different ascent to the long grind from 2014). Coming off the back of a rest day this tough stage should see some attacks and looks just up Nibbles' street. Stage 11 probably won't be GC-relevant, but has a very interesting last 25km characterised that look ripe for an attack. I couldn't care less about Stage 12.

Stage 13, on the other hand, has got me very excited. Because of its position in the far north-east of Italy, the Friuli region doesn't see the Giro as often as it does. This year, however, it is very well showcased. The brutal, Mortirolo-esque climb of the Monte Matajur softens the legs up, and they are further weakened on the second ascent, before the Cima Porzus rears its head, with about 8km @ 9%. Topping out with 32km to go, this provides an excellent springboard for attacks, and the easier, but still tricky climb 'Valle' finishes the combination before a short flat run-in to the finish. The descents on this stage, especially that of Porzus, are very narrow and technical (think Pramartino 2011), and if Nibbles decides to tear this one up from distance, havoc could be created.

However, the one flaw with the Cividale del Friuli stage is that it is the first stage in a tough mountain trifecta. Stage 14 honours the Maratona dles Dolomites, and as soon as we start climbing the mythical Pordoi, back in the Giro for the first time since 2008, the road simply refuses to flatten out. While only the Passo Giau is a really tough ascent, this stage contains about 5400m of elevation gain spread across the stage and will be a really difficult one for the riders. The stage design combo is very like the previous one, with the brutal Giau followed by the easier Valparola, but here we have a little twist at the end - the Mür dl Giat. Although only 360m in length, most of that is spent at 19%, and coming within the final 5km it should break up the small groups that will probably be scattered across the road by this point. Have a slight off-day on this stage and you could lose minutes.

The final stage of the trifecta is the mountain time trial to Alpe di Siusi. Not much to be said about this one, other than it's a very tough climb (although shorter and a little easier than the ridiculously difficult Monte Grappa TT two years ago). Hopefully its presence looming over the previous two stages will not stifle the action too much.

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Thus concludes the second week. The third week starts with an interesting stage on the mountainous side of medium-mountain. Both ascents would probably be cat.1 in most other races in the world, and although Mendelpass is probably too far from the finish to launch a move, Fai della Paganella, 10km @ 7.5%, as featured in the Giro del Trentino Stage 3, the first of Tanel Kangert's victories, summits only 10km from the finish, so attacks should be expected here, especially given it's the day after the rest day and the riders have had time to recover from the Dolomites.

After a flat stage to break proceedings up, it's time to insert another cliché about banana skins as we are faced with the climb of Pramartino as from the 2011 Tour de France (complete with whingeing Schlecks etc). Except here, we're climbing the side they descended five years ago, which is harder than the side they climbed in the Tour - this is nearly 5km at over 10%. And to top it all off, in what's becoming a recurring theme in this year's Giro route, there's a small Muro just 2km before the finish, the Via Principia d'Acaja, 500m @ 13%, ensuring some more splits.

Finally, it's now time to confront the Alps. And what better way to start than with the Italian side of the Colle dell'Agnello, surely one of the hardest climbs in professional cycling. From the valley floor, the road slowly but surely keeps on rising, gradually at first, before it crescendos into an infernal din towards the end. Officially, the climb is 21.3km @ 6.8%, but this hides the fact that the last 10.5km are at a leg-shattering 9.3%! However, disappointingly, Agnello is not followed by Izoard today as it was in that epic stage in 2007, but we have a long journey down the valley on the other side before climbing to the ski resort of Risoul, thus neutering Agenello somewhat. Nevertheless it's a beast of a climb and will severely whittle the domestiques down before what is basically the only proper MTF of the race, and with 13km @ 7% it's more than handy enough in creating gaps.

For Stage 20, we have an absolute brute of a mountain stage. Although it's only 134km, it packs in three tough climbs: the Col de Vars starts right from the very beginning, providing a springboard for early attacks, 18.3km @ 5.7%, and then we're back up to the highest reaches of the Alps with the Col de la Bonette (not the Cime loop, of course the Cima Coppi can't be in France!) a neverending 22.3km @ 6.7% and then after some brief downtime in the valley, probably enough to neutralise serious attacks on the Bonette, the Colle della Lombarda, a brutal 20km @ 7.5%, before a final little rise to the finish at Sant'Anna di Vinadio. This could be an even more epic stage with the right amount of snow - enough to cause havoc but not enough to cancel the stage, and gaps could be absolutely huge. Mikel Landa will be looking forward to this stage for the whole Giro, and he'll just have to hope that it isn't cancelled. The traditional last stage sprint finishes in Torino this year to round off what should hopefully be another epic race!

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TLDR: Route doesn't have many mountains, but makes up for that in having lots of tricky 'banana' stages and the few mountain stages there are are well-designed (apart from Agnello-Risoul) and packed with climbs. Should be a race that rewards the attacker. Events in the medium-mountain stages in the first two weeks will be very important as it is very possible that at least one of the mountain stages will be severely derailed because of snow (let's face it, there is going to be snow at 2700m+ in May, even if it's a warm spring). Parcours suits Nibali quite a bit, but lots to like in there for Valverde and a couple of stages for Landa as well. Stromeon approves and is looking forward to it.

Vincenzo Nibali

Although appearing somewhat lacklustre in his preparation in recent weeks, the Shark of Messina remains the man to beat in this Giro, mainly due to his superb Grand Tour pedigree. Entering the Giro after a two-year hiatus, the last time we saw Vicenzo in this race was back in 2013, a race perhaps more noted for what didn't happen that what actually did, but by the end he was on imperious form, winning the MTT and the abbreviated Tre Cime stage. This year I think the route suits him very well; he will be licking his lips at those narrow descents on the Cividale del Friuli stage, for instance, and partly because of this, in my opinion remains the overall favourite.

Mikel Landa

Mikel Landa returns to the Giro after his thrilling exploits last year, and he will be hoping to improve even more this year, no longer shackled with the duties of guarding the home favourite as was partly the case last year. In contrast to Nibali, Landa has been on great form this year, winning a tough stage in the Euskal Herriko Itzulia and, more importantly, the overall in the Giro del Trentino, often a precursor to a great performance in the Giro itself. It is quite possible that Landa will be the best climber in the Giro, but whether he can translate that into overall victory is an altogether different question.

Alejandro Valverde

After 13 seasons as a professional rider, most of which as one of the world's best cyclists, Alejandro Valverde has finally decided to line up at the start of the Giro for the first time. I don't think any of us have a clue how this will pan out, but one thing's for sure, 'Piti' is a quality rider and should never be discounted. I personally believe the top step of the podium is a step too far for him, but if he powers away on some of the hilly stages and then the big mountains get cancelled then who knows what might happen?

Domenico Pozzovivo
Rafał Majka
Rigoberto Urán

Andrey Amador
Darwin Atapuma
Esteban Chaves
Damiano Cunego
Tom Dumoulin
Sergey Firsanov
Jakob Fuglsang
Ryder Hesjedal
Tanel Kangert
Steven Kruijswijk
Jean-Christophe Péraud
Ilnur Zakarin

Other riders of interest:

Carlos Betancur
Fabian Cancellara
Arnaud Démare
Caleb Ewan
André Greipel
Marcel Kittel
Sacha Modolo
Giacomo Nizzolo
Filippo Pozzato
Diego Rosa
Michele Scarponi
Diego Ulissi
Elia Viviani
etc.
...plus loads of others

So let's hear your predictions - the usual post your top 10 etc, and thoughts on the race and route. Obviously it's a little early to make particularly accurate predictions (although it is less than two weeks away!), and we'll probably get some of the main favourites being sick or having to drop out or something - though overall at this point it looks a stronger field than last year, and with Kittel and Greipel and the usual Italians the sprinters field looks pretty packed - while it looks quite a friendly sprinters' route at first glance most stages have tricky little obstacles in the final few km that aren't very Kittel-friendly for instance. One thing's for sure, it's going to be better than the Ardennes!

Riis123 wrote:
Oh well, banned 2 weeks on cyclingnews again, I guess I'll be here in the coming 2 weeks and spam the cycling forum