Its a relatively easy stage to control tho, after the break has been let go its basically 80 kilometers of flat until the finale begins with 40 to go. Katusha and maybe Garmin and Movistar could be interested in keeping it together. If so, Rodriguez should be the favorite - it would, regardless of what happens today, surprise me if he doesnt get his 3rd win this year. 3 stages > 4th GC. Wouldnt surprise me one bit either if Froome covers the attacks and goes on the last kilometer.
No clue if break or favorites, hoping for the latter
Breakaway time I also expect attacks from Gesink and Mollema. Alberto will be watching Froome closely today in search of a weakness but I don't think he'll attack, not tommorow. Valverde will wait for a sprint finish in a reduced group. I would go for Purito who is very likely to attack on the steep gradients if he's managed to recuperrate from yesterday. I guess Froome could also go for a surprise ttack to gin seconds but I highly doubt it. He isn't so dumb as in 2013 to exhaust himself completely for very little gain. He will probably just follow the ohers and sprint in the end.
Race director Christian Prudhomme serves up another excellent canvas for the riders to paint a masterpiece upon, if they so desire. If the peloton thought yesterday’s stage was difficult towards the end then today’s final 41.5-kilometres will seem absolutely torturous.
Beginning in Rodez, host of yesterday’s finish, the 178.5 kilometre-long stage climbs up to the summit of the Col de Vernhette (44km) before starting a 14.5 kilometre-long descent to the Tarn river valley below. Afterwards the peloton will follow the river valley for 78.5-kilometres before ascending, tackling three challenging categorised climbs in the process, to reach the finishing line in Mende.
While the second category Côte de Sauveterre (9-kilometres at 6 per cent) and fourth category Côte de Chabrits (1.9-kilometres at 5.9 per cent) will blunt the legs of the peloton the decisive moment of the stage comes with just 4.5-kilometres remaining. Similar to yesterday, a short and punchy climb lies close to the finishing line and it should decide the stage’s victor.
(click image to enlarge)
A familiar climb to the Tour de France, traffic furniture will complicate the run up to the decisive Côte de la Croix Neuve (3-kilometres at 10.1 per cent) and cause an even fiercer tempo during the crucial battle for position. After reaching the climb’s summit there will be just 1500-metres left to reach the finishing line, just enough distance for a rider to potentially close a small gap to a rival.
Stage Contenders
Lasted used as a stage finish on Stage 12 of the 2010 Tour de France, that day the stage honours were taken out by Joaquim Rodriguez in a head-to-head sprint with Alberto Contador. The duo leaving everyone else, including Maillot Jaune and eventual race winner Andy Schleck, for dead on the slopes of the Côte de la Croix Neuve.
Whether we will get to see another exciting showdown on the Côte de la Croix Neuve between the general classification and stage favourites will depend on the willingness of the peloton to chase the inevitable breakaway of the day. With several teams still without a stage victory in the 2015 Tour de France if a significant number of them miss the break we can expect the peloton to give chase.
With a number of stage hunters and former general classification riders, their dreams brutally crushed by Sky Pro Cycling, on the prowl the fight to get in today’s breakaway will be fierce and unpredictable. Some names to watch out for are Pieter Weening, Adam Yates, Julian Arredondo, Thomas Voeckler, Jan Bakelants, Simon Geschke, Tim Wellens and Alexis Vuillermoz.
My favourite for the stage is Joaquim Rodriguez of Team Katusha, however, the veteran Spanish climber may find it a challenge to get in the breakaway of the day. If ‘Purito’, as he is affectionately nicknamed, cannot make the breakaway it will be up to Team Katusha to reel in the break if the Catalonian wants to claim a third stage victory at the 2015 Tour de France.
I'd love to see Wellens take it from the breakaway or an early attack at the final climb. The climbs suits him very well and he has been surprisingly anonymous so far in le Tour. It has to be his day tomorrow.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Morabito abandons from the crash which caught out Gesink and Pinot
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
I wouldn't be so sure. Lotto won't just give up. And the lead isn't very big. Also with the presence of Barquil and Rolland I'm beginning to doubt that the breakaway will make it to the finish line. At least it will be very close close.
Rodez / 
I also expect attacks from Gesink and Mollema. Alberto will be watching Froome closely today in search of a weakness but I don't think he'll attack, not tommorow. Valverde will wait for a sprint finish in a reduced group. I would go for Purito who is very likely to attack on the steep gradients if he's managed to recuperrate from yesterday. I guess Froome could also go for a surprise ttack to gin seconds but I highly doubt it. He isn't so dumb as in 2013 to exhaust himself completely for very little gain. He will probably just follow the ohers and sprint in the end.
