|
Le Tour de France 2015 | Stage 10, Tarbes - La Pierre-Saint-Martin
|
| Riis123 |
Posted on 12-07-2015 18:54
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5075
Joined: 07-08-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
We are finally into the mountains and fortunately, the 9 first stages haven't created carnage among the GC-favorites. Its the Pyrenées and its the first mountain stage of the race after a rest-day in what has been forecasted like very hot and sunny weather. Its what he all have been waiting for!
Allthough all the favorites still are intact, that doesnt mean some of them havent lost significant time to the Maillot Jaune in the classics-esque terrain over Holland, Belgium and various departements in Northern France. Most notably, Pinot have lost his GC-chances, but also riders like Bardet, Rodriguez and Costa have suffered significant losses, but are by no means out of it like Pinot. Other lesser riders who might have had GC-aspirations, or at least are capable of it, who like Pinot has lost big ground would be Martin, Majka, Fuglsang, Kelderman (along with Kruijswijk and Ten Dam), Vuillermoz, Rolland and Adam Yates.
That means we are in for some real fireworks, as the various disciplines in the first 9 days have created decently big gaps between the absolute favorites: Contador is 1 minute down, Nibali and Quintana around 2 minutes down while climbers like Bardet and Rodriguez have lost 4 minutes. And presumable those fireworks will already start on Pierre-Martin which is a Hórs Catégorie and definetely IS a really hard climb.
Its a classic first day in the Pyrenées: flat and rolling across the Haute-Pyrenées with the green Pyrenées lurking in the horizon. Expect teams like Sky and Movistar to easily control the break and duke it out on La Pierre, a 15.3 long climb at 7,4% which is hardest at the bottom- and middle sections, much like the rest of the big MTF's of this years race: La Pierre-Saint-Martin, Plateau de Beille, La Touissuire and Alp d' Huez. That means for some significant timegaps on this climb to be created, the favorites and its team needs to put their gloves on early.
Froome and Quintana should be the favorites. General consensus is they are the 2 best climbers in the world, with Contador, Rodriguez, TJvG, Nibali, Bardet and Pinot lurking in the shadows. Froome couldnt have written a better manuscript for the first 9 days if it had depended on his life - a guy who last October who threatened to not participate due to the lack of ITT's. It probably wont be a replica of Ax-3-Domaines 2013 (also the first mountain stage), but less would be acceptable. Question on Sky is who will be Froome's right hand which Porte perfected 2 years ago (especially on Ax-3 - youtube it!): Poels, Thomas, Porte or even König? It probably depends much on the day, but where Sky lacked climbing depth in 2013, they presumeable lack the elite mountain domestique alá Heras 2002 and Porte 2013 capable of blowing the race apart to that point where the only one left was Armstrong and Froome.
If Froome couldnt write it better, Contador and especially Nibali could. Both are already more than 1 minute down and both arent expected to gain that time back on MTFs, meaning both will have to look after other places to gain that time back. Nibali looked weak on Bretagne, Contador on Huy and coupled with his relatively underwhelming Giro-win in terms of climbing prowess and obviously the fatigue, both are somewhat unknown going up to La Pierre-Saint-Martin.
Quintana is dubbed to be the only one being able to match Froome w/Kg on the big passes and is the overwhelming first contestant according to bookmakers. The question mark is his team - while they were able to get him through the 9 nine days relatively well, only missing the split in Zeeland, they seem to lack climbers apart from Valverde. Question is if he is rdy to completely sacrifice his own chances, fx. split the field by a monstrous pull like he did at Annecy Semnoz 2013 - I doubt it. The rest of the climb squad, Herrada-Anacona-Izaguirre-Castroviejo arent top notch.
Has TJvG peaked too soon? His Dauphine might suggest that, but he has been climbing well all year, starting in Oman and winning a stage in Catalunya ahead of climbers such as Porte and Contador. Other contenders for the stage would be Rodriguez who gradually tends to be better and better which was obvious in Dauphine and Tour 2013 and looked fantastic on Huy, while frenchmen Bardet, Barguil, Vuillermoz and Pinot all are capable of stealing the stage.
Its finally here and god damn, I have looked forward to this stage. |
| |
|
|
| lakebeach |
Posted on 12-07-2015 19:29
|
Protected Rider
Posts: 1172
Joined: 15-11-2012
PCM$: 200.00
|
This will be one of the most interesting stages in years. For the first time we will see Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali and van Garderen in top condition ride against each other in a pure mountain stage. I'm looking so much forward to tuesday. 
"It's very hard to work with other guys because nobody wants to work with me so it's better to drop everybody." - Peter Sagan |
| |
|
|
| Strydz |
Posted on 12-07-2015 19:32
|
Team Leader
Posts: 5894
Joined: 02-08-2011
PCM$: 1625.00
|
This looks made for Froome and his Sky/Postal train, unless a break manages to surprise and stay away then I think Froome will want to stamp his authority on the race.
Hells 500 Crew and 6 x Everester
Don Rd Launching Place
Melbourne Hill Rd Warrandyte
Colby Drive Belgrave South
William Rd The Patch
David Hill Rd Monbulk
Lakeside Drive Emerald
https://www.everesting.cc/hall-of-fame/ |
| |
|
|
| Kay-peder |
Posted on 12-07-2015 20:19
|
Under 23
Posts: 96
Joined: 26-08-2010
PCM$: 200.00
|
I think there would be a bunch of competitive winners on tuesday. But as you say, mostly a fight between thTe 4 of GC Contador, Frrom, Nibali and Quintana.
Nibali i think is in a little bad shape, hasn't looked that well this TDF.
If i should pick a top 5 for the stage i will say, Froome, Contador, Quintana, Dan Martin who is in good shape, and Tejay.
I will not try to pci the right places...
 |
| |
|
|
| Guido Mukk |
Posted on 12-07-2015 21:20
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15830
Joined: 08-02-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
lakebeach wrote:
This will be one of the most interesting stages in years. For the first time we will see Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali and van Garderen in top condition ride against each other in a pure mountain stage. I'm looking so much forward to tuesday.
dont expect to much (like long early attack). Tour first mountain is usually check each other. Maybe inside last 2km attack. And reserving energy for next mountains.
climb himself is just wow for first real mountain. |
| |
|
|
| Riis123 |
Posted on 12-07-2015 22:29
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5075
Joined: 07-08-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
Guido Mukk wrote:
lakebeach wrote:
This will be one of the most interesting stages in years. For the first time we will see Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali and van Garderen in top condition ride against each other in a pure mountain stage. I'm looking so much forward to tuesday.
dont expect to much (like long early attack). Tour first mountain is usually check each other. Maybe inside last 2km attack. And reserving energy for next mountains.
climb himself is just wow for first real mountain.
I disagree on that one. If one or 2 of the Sky's can melt the field somewhat like Porte in 2013, we could see something similar to 2013. If Valverde really is legit abut 100% in for Quintana, that starts tomorrow with high pacing or accelerations relatively early on. If Contador is feeling good, he probably has the best mountain domestique in Majka. If.....
Also, the french Pinot, Bardet, Vuillermoz etc. surely wants to do something since they are so behind already. Rodriguez is 4 minutes down as well, and if you dont start on a climb like this (the first 10 kms average over 8%..), I dont really know when to. Its a brutal climb. |
| |
|
|
| rastaff |
Posted on 12-07-2015 22:33
|
Under 23
Posts: 80
Joined: 10-09-2012
PCM$: 1698.50
|
Nice preview, thanks a lot Riis123! |
| |
|
|
| sutty68 |
Posted on 12-07-2015 23:42
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 34654
Joined: 22-08-2010
PCM$: 200.00
|
Really looking forward to the BIG action to start  |
| |
|
|
| Ad Bot |
Posted on 28-11-2024 15:17
|
Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
|
|
| IP: None |
|
|
| Movistar |
Posted on 13-07-2015 02:24
|
Domestique
Posts: 424
Joined: 05-06-2012
PCM$: 200.00
|
lakebeach wrote:
This will be one of the most interesting stages in years. For the first time we will see Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali and van Garderen in top condition ride against each other in a pure mountain stage. I'm looking so much forward to tuesday.
Dont forget all the second level folks just behind the top names. This is totally stacked.
Only problem is the stage is just not hard enough.
Looks like a textbook Froome Bot super cadence for the win. |
| |
|
|
| Strydz |
Posted on 13-07-2015 06:30
|
Team Leader
Posts: 5894
Joined: 02-08-2011
PCM$: 1625.00
|
Riis123 wrote:
Guido Mukk wrote:
lakebeach wrote:
This will be one of the most interesting stages in years. For the first time we will see Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali and van Garderen in top condition ride against each other in a pure mountain stage. I'm looking so much forward to tuesday.
dont expect to much (like long early attack). Tour first mountain is usually check each other. Maybe inside last 2km attack. And reserving energy for next mountains.
climb himself is just wow for first real mountain.
I disagree on that one. If one or 2 of the Sky's can melt the field somewhat like Porte in 2013, we could see something similar to 2013. If Valverde really is legit abut 100% in for Quintana, that starts tomorrow with high pacing or accelerations relatively early on. If Contador is feeling good, he probably has the best mountain domestique in Majka. If.....
Also, the french Pinot, Bardet, Vuillermoz etc. surely wants to do something since they are so behind already. Rodriguez is 4 minutes down as well, and if you dont start on a climb like this (the first 10 kms average over 8%..), I dont really know when to. Its a brutal climb.
The Ax3 comparison is really good and that's how I see Sky trying to play it but not as dominant but still having Froome take the stage, the first 10 ks are difficult but the section after that is easier which should bring any attackers back together until it ramps up again which is where I see the stage being won. The actual climb is longer than what the Tour profile shows and there is roughly 5 k's of a false flat of 2-3% leading upto what the profile in the OP shows so this is a big climb.
Also can't remember where I read it but Pinot said he is targeting the KOM comp now so it will interesting to see if he bothers with this stage and just sits up and loses more time
Hells 500 Crew and 6 x Everester
Don Rd Launching Place
Melbourne Hill Rd Warrandyte
Colby Drive Belgrave South
William Rd The Patch
David Hill Rd Monbulk
Lakeside Drive Emerald
https://www.everesting.cc/hall-of-fame/ |
| |
|
|
| Guido Mukk |
Posted on 13-07-2015 08:32
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15830
Joined: 08-02-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
Riis123 wrote:
Guido Mukk wrote:
lakebeach wrote:
This will be one of the most interesting stages in years. For the first time we will see Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali and van Garderen in top condition ride against each other in a pure mountain stage. I'm looking so much forward to tuesday.
dont expect to much (like long early attack). Tour first mountain is usually check each other. Maybe inside last 2km attack. And reserving energy for next mountains.
climb himself is just wow for first real mountain.
I disagree on that one. If one or 2 of the Sky's can melt the field somewhat like Porte in 2013, we could see something similar to 2013. If Valverde really is legit abut 100% in for Quintana, that starts tomorrow with high pacing or accelerations relatively early on. If Contador is feeling good, he probably has the best mountain domestique in Majka. If.....
Also, the french Pinot, Bardet, Vuillermoz etc. surely wants to do something since they are so behind already. Rodriguez is 4 minutes down as well, and if you dont start on a climb like this (the first 10 kms average over 8%..), I dont really know when to. Its a brutal climb.
Ok maybe some french team attack..because they have failed at first week and has nothing to lose. I still don't believe that leaders will go full out there. But lets see.. |
| |
|
|
| lakebeach |
Posted on 13-07-2015 09:50
|
Protected Rider
Posts: 1172
Joined: 15-11-2012
PCM$: 200.00
|
Movistar wrote:
lakebeach wrote:
This will be one of the most interesting stages in years. For the first time we will see Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali and van Garderen in top condition ride against each other in a pure mountain stage. I'm looking so much forward to tuesday.
Dont forget all the second level folks just behind the top names. This is totally stacked.
Only problem is the stage is just not hard enough.
Looks like a textbook Froome Bot super cadence for the win.
Yeah, Ilove it that almost everyone is here. The only top-climbers I can think of that are not here would be Aru and Landa.
"It's very hard to work with other guys because nobody wants to work with me so it's better to drop everybody." - Peter Sagan |
| |
|
|
| Malkael |
Posted on 13-07-2015 10:26
|
Sprinter
Posts: 1697
Joined: 02-08-2010
PCM$: 200.00
|
Considering it will be Bastille Day you can count on the French going all in for a do-or-die assault on the stage victory. Prepare yourselves for the trademark Voeckler long range energy wasting attack, its sequel the Rolland energry wasting attack and some moves from other French riders.
The time deficits just add even more reason to go out there and join in the Bastille Day mayhem.
|
| |
|
|
| cactus-jack |
Posted on 13-07-2015 10:46
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 3936
Joined: 31-07-2009
PCM$: 200.00
|
Rest days are awful. I don't know what to do with myself.
There's a fine line between "psychotherapist" and "psycho the rapist"
|
| |
|
|
| deek12345 |
Posted on 13-07-2015 12:36
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 2761
Joined: 13-06-2009
PCM$: 360.00
|
cant wait till tomorrow till we see the SKY freak show ride everyone to pieces and froomstrong to destroy his rivals.
hope im wrong |
| |
|
|
| Riis123 |
Posted on 13-07-2015 13:14
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5075
Joined: 07-08-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
rastaff wrote:
Nice preview, thanks a lot Riis123!
Thanks, I also put in a little time there! |
| |
|
|
| Spilak23 |
Posted on 13-07-2015 13:42
|
Team Leader
Posts: 7357
Joined: 22-08-2011
PCM$: 200.00
|
Very sad news out of the Tinkoff camp. Ivan Basso has testicular cancer. They found out a couple hours ago. Will leave le Tour. Strength to him and his family
|
| |
|
|
| Miguel98 |
Posted on 13-07-2015 13:50
|
World Champion
Posts: 10497
Joined: 23-06-2011
PCM$: 200.00
|
Just saw that too. 
I hope Ivan pulls through this. And he still was fighting to help Alberto in the TTT. |
| |
|
|
| Kirchen_75 |
Posted on 13-07-2015 13:55
|
Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7702
Joined: 24-07-2009
PCM$: 200.00
|
I'd imagine Bardet is gonna go apeshit crazy to win this stage. |
| |
|
|
| Riis123 |
Posted on 13-07-2015 14:04
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5075
Joined: 07-08-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
Oh shit. Basso.
How do i make a poll? |
| |
|
