Once again this season I decided to write a preview of the PCT. Plenty of new teams and riders in the division make it hard to predict, but hopefully I'm not completely off on all teams. Remember, this is just my opinion, please don't be offended if you disagree because I'm probably wrong judging by my results last season.
I will do the teams A-Z, as the other PCT preview at the moment (Roturn's) is doing it Z-A. The first batch of five teams should be online within a few minutes. I will try to get all teams posted at latest Wednesday evening.
Rankings Prediction
1. Prio - Porto
2. Team BPost
3. Team Puma - SAP
4. Gazelle
5. Aegon - Lavazza
6. RBC Pro Cycling
7. Team TomTom
8. Eritel - Sonatrach
9. Team Kenya Airways
10. Swedbank - PEAB
11. Buff - Polska
12. Bonsucro
13. Evonik - ELKO
14. Project: Africa
15. Bank of Ireland
16. Team Vontobel
17. Grupo Nutresa
18. Risa - Ergon
19. ONCE - Eroski
20. Siam Cement - Lenovo
21. Karcher - Adira
22. Mobil - Aeropostal Ciclismo
23. Amex - Navigon
24. Children of Chernobyl p/b Nemiroff
25. Euskaltel - Air France
26. Lululemon/Bulgaria Blackfish
27. Azteca - NBCSN
28. cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA - Savers
29. Sauber - Petronas Racing
30. Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling
Edited by FroomeDog99 on 03-06-2015 18:46
Aegon came closest to staying in the PT last year of the relegating teams, and looked like a strong team coming into transfers. Despite being slightly weakened since then, I think they stand a great chance of promotion to the PT at the first attempt.
Keizer returns to them as a better climber, and his great TT ability combined with being one of the best in the mountains now makes him a serious threat in stage races over the year. The strength of climbing may mean he is often not at the very front when climbing, but his time-trial more than makes up for this. He is also supported well by Aru and Oliver.
They also still have former World Champion Boom, a rider who I think will continue to do very well for them. He is one of quite a few riders in the division who combine strength on hilly terrains and a good TT. Boom is very strong on the TT bike though, and also is very decent over cobbles and mountains, making him able to score in a variety of races.
Vanmarcke is among the top cobblers in the division, and he also has a decent sprint which should help him at the end of the tough spring classics. He is supported well by Nooytens and of course Boom, which should mean he is also a solid scorer.
Other riders of note include youngster Groenwengen, who can pick up results in the flat classics and stage races this season despite not being fully maxed yet. Schadlich is another rider who could get some results, as he is very strong on the TT bike.
Overall, a very good all-round squad who should get in the top 5 of the division for sure. I think a couple of their leaders may not score hugely but there should be a constant stream of points from all terrains which I think should lead Aegon to promotion.
Team
AMEX - Navigon
Country
USA
Best Rider
Jerome Baugnies - 80 Cob 72 Hi 78 Fl
Prediction
23rd
Amex have had a couple of years around mid-table in the PCT, focusing on the cobbles and scoring in small parts elsewhere. They have continued with this formula once again, but with the improved strength of the division I think they could be dragged into a relegation battle.
They are undoubtedly one one of the strongest cobble squads, with Baugnies joining after helping Quickstep to promotion. He is one of the best in the division on the cobbles, and is also decent uphill and therefore should perform well in the hilly cobbled classics as well. He also has a strong super-domestique in Breschel who has had great results on his own in the past.
Once again their second strongest terrain is in the hills, with Boswell joining to give them a home leader. When fully developed he will be a big leader for this team, but as he is he could struggle to get major results against the top puncheurs in the division. Mehr-Wenige is just as good on the hills, but once again isn't quite on the calibre of the best riders.
Nizzolo also comes in to give Amex a sprinting option, and he could get a few good results in the flat classics, despite not being as fast as the best sprinters. However, poor backup stats mean he could struggle in longer races. He does have a good leadout though, with Grillo there to deliver him in a good position.
For a third season Amex will definitely score well on the cobbles, and maybe pick up a win or two from those races as well. However, in the 100 racedays that Baugnies isn't riding their second-tier leaders will have to score, and I don't think they are good enough to keep the American squad out of a relegation battle. Still, I think they should just be safe.
Team
Azteca - NBCSN
Country
Mexico
Best Rider
Danny Summerhill - 82 Cob 73 Hi 78 Fl
Prediction
27th
Azteca had a moderately successful first season in which they finished in the top 10 of the CT, before promoting along with several of their rivals. They managed to bag a race winner at this level in transfers, but I still don't think it'll be enough to keep them up.
That race winner I mentioned is Summerhill, who after some training in the off season is looking like the favourite to do best out of the big cobblers in the classics this season. The big American doesn't only have big strength on the cobbles and flat, but can also handle hills and sprints well. His only weakness is his support, with almost nobody to help him in the latter stages of a race, which could affect his results.
The other terrain that Azteca have focused on is the mountains, and specifically mountain goats. Their roster is full of riders whose only strength is climbing, and are useless elsewhere. Their best climber is loanee Quintana, who despite being a good climber realistically won't be able to get many big results due to the huge climbing strength in the PCT.
They also have Farrar to lead them in the sprints, but the American is not fast enough to compete with the best in the division and may have to go stage hunting in longer stage races.
30 riders in their squad is far too many and I think that is why they have struggled to get more top leaders. Summerhill will do very well in his 35 racedays and I think those will be enough to take them away from the bottom of the table despite a lack of support. However, they could struggle for points in their other races and may end up looking to results from breakaways. Overall, I don't think Azteca have enough point scorers to stay up unfortunately.
Team
Bank of Ireland
Country
Ireland
Best Rider
Jay McCarthy - 81 Hi 80 Sta 74 Acc
Prediction
15th
One of many promoting teams, Bank of Ireland finished 9th in the CT last season mostly thanks to one rider, Portuguese puncheur Jose Mendes. This year they have two big leaders instead of one, and they should be good enough along with the rest of the team to push for a top half finish.
Once again their strongest rider is a puncheur. After leaving the now-defunct Wikipedia squad, McCarthy will be willing to do well in his first opportunity to lead a team. He is one of the strongest on the hills in the division but may not be as strong in the sprints and mountains as his rivals so it is hard to predict how well he will do. He does have some support, but no-one overly decent for the latter stages of races.
Their other big rider is Spanish stage-racer Marquez, who stays in the PCT after helping Quickstep to promotion last year. Despite not being the strongest on the TT bike or on the hills he always seems so get good results at this level, and I think he will carry on to do well despite the influx of climbers into the division.
There are also some sprinters in the squad. Drapac is the fastest but is very weak on the hills so I would expect home rider Bennett to do better, especially if he can avoid the big sprinters in longer stage races. Robert should also get some results for the team in the flatter races with a TT, as he is strong against the clock.
Bank of Ireland seem to have followed the same model as several other promoted teams of signing two big leaders and hoping they will get them to safety. I think it's a good strategy for the first year, and the pair here could well lead the Irish squad into the top half.
Team
Bonsucro
Country
Brazil
Best Rider
Alberto Contador - 82 Mo 76 Hi 74 TT
Prediction
12th
It was a great first year in the MG for Bonsucro, as they came extremely close to the CT title thanks to a variety of their riders scoring well. This season however they will be much more reliant on one or two leaders, who I think can take them into the top half if they do well.
The big name arrival, who could well have been the biggest rider to transfer into the PCT, is of course Contador. After finishing on the podium of La Vuelta last season, the Spaniard has declined slightly but should still be a huge threat in all his mountainous races due to his climbing and stage racing qualities. He is also backed well by fellow arrival Iglinski, who should provide solid support.
The Brazilians also managed to sign a hilly leader from the free agency, with Frenchman Jeremy Roy signing relatively late on in transfers. He struggled to perform last season, mainly because of a weakness on the tougher hills. However, in the easier hilly races he can contend with the top puncheurs at least, although he doesn't have much support wise.
There are also some decent sprinters on the team, with Castaneda and Manarelli being the fastest. However, I think these will struggle to compete with the best and their use will be limited to pan-flat classics and stages. Mansilla can be a good an alternative for tougher sprints and rolling stages.
I think Bonsucro has done well, and pushed on by plenty of points from Contador they should be around the midway point. I think they will finish just higher than that, with Roy due a successful season and sprinters who can score decently.
Buff did well to finish mid-table last season, as many of their fellow promoting teams were dragged into a relegation fight. This year they benefited from a deal with Movistar to obtain two good leaders, who could move the Spanish squad well into the top half this time around.
Like many teams in the division there is a strong mountains department here, headed with one of those arrivals from Movistar Abal. The Spaniard helped his team to promotion last season, and returns to a much stronger PCT division on the mountains. His strong time-trial should be an asset though in stage races which should enable him to get some good GC results. Another climbing leader is Nazaret, who's your typical mountain goat and will probably go for races without a TT.
Buff have also strengthened on the hills. Betancourt has a great 2014 where he was one of the top-scoring puncheurs in the division. He surprised me, as the Colombian doesn't have the best backup stats but he must make up for it in great uphill ability and should be a threat once more this season. Ventoso is the second Movistar arrival who despite declining should still be a great rider with a strong hilly-sprint combination for the easier hilly races.
I like the feel of this squad and although I think their top leaders may not score as freely as they may have done previously, with increased mountainous competition, I still think this squad is a major improvement and shouldn't be too far away from the top 10.
Team
Children of Chernobyl Foundation p/b Nemiroff
Country
Ukraine
Best Rider
Yevgeni Nempomnyachsniy - 77 Mo 74 Hi 77 TT
Prediction
24th
Chernobyl, riding as Privatbank last season, had a transition season last season where they weren't too successful but stayed away from a relegation battle in 22nd. Although some changes to the team's leaders have happened in transfers, I can see a similar season happening, and they could even finish lower with many rivals improving and overtaking them.
The terrain which they are strongest in is the mountains, with their best rider Nempomnyachsniy being a strong all-round stage racer, who is strong on the TT bike as well as the mountains. He can't however compete with the best climbers and will have to hope he can make up time against the clock. Their best climber is Krasnoperov, who will be desperate to prove himself after a year on the sidelines. However, he has poor backup stats, and especially a poor hill stat will make life tough for him. These two don't lack support with Popovych, Topchanyuk and Kashechkin all good riders who should pick up some points.
When not on the mountains however they don't have many big point scorers. Efimkin can lead them in the tougher hilly classics, but isn't of the calibre of several of the top puncheurs. Prevar is a very similar rider, but is a little worse on the hills and a bit better in a sprint.
They also have some sprinters, with Ulanowski the fastest, but he won't be able to keep up with the top sprinters and his fear of hills will mean he will struggle to perform in any stage or classic that has a climb in and therefore he may have to go stage hunting in longer races. A mention must go to Suparman as well, who will try his best to live up to his name wherever he can with some attacking riding.
Chernobyl do look strong on their mountains, but I fear their leaders may not score hugely due to the new levels of competition they will face. With not many points scoring alternatives, they could find themselves in a relegation battle, although I think they have enough about them to stay up.
Team
cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers
Country
Great Britain
Best Rider
Ignatas Konovalovas - 76 Hi 75 TT 75 Res
Prediction
28th
One of a few teams that have found themselves thrust into the PCT after a modest CT season, cycleYorkshire struggled to find a big leader in transfers and consequently look like a team that'll be fighting relegation this season.
Their biggest potential scorer is probably Konovalovas, whose combination of hilly and TT strength will give him the opportunity to score in stage races with TT's this season. Dennis is a rider in the same mould, and could do just as well as the Lithuanian despite not yet being maxed.
Another new signing is Tvetcov, who must be one of the most all round riders in the division. His ability on the mountains, hills, time-trials and sprints are all useful assets but he's not really strong enough in any area to score hugely. Maybe he can do well in some mountainous stage races but I can't see anything better than a top 10 happening.
They have a capable cobbled leader in Bernhard Eisel, who has showed on numerous occasions in previous years his quality on the cobbles in this division. However, the Austrian is now on the decline so may not be as effective as in his Amex years.
Stannard is the only one of their leaders remaining from their CT days, and while he is among the strongest on the TT bike his phobia of speedbumps could limit his opportunities to win this season.
Another team who have signed too many riders in my opinion which has meant their leaders haven't been as good as they could have been. Lots of small point scorers here, but no outstanding rider and that could mean relegation for cycleYorkshire.
Team
Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling
Country
Great Britain
Best Rider
Mark Cavendish - 82 Sp 81 Acc 80 Rec
Prediction
30th
Last year was a modest year for Eddie Stobart in the CT, with disbandments leading to them being promoted surprisingly despite finishing well into the bottom half of the table. To stand a chance of staying up I thought they would need some serious strengthening, and after a poor renewals and despite the signing of Cavendish I think they are doomed for the wooden spoon.
The one thing going for them is Cavendish, who should be a solid scorer for the team in the flat classics. His acceleration ability gives him the upper hand over some of his rivals, and despite not having a great train the likes of Opie and Cimolai should provide a decent enough leadout.
However, as we saw last season with BelarusBank, Cavendish alone cannot save a team from bottom spot. They have very few other point scorers, apart from maybe mangame legend Zabriskie who could get in some top 10 of TT's over the season. De Marchi could perhaps get a surprise win in the mountains at some point also, along with some other mediocre climbers.
This clear lack of point scorers should mean relegation back to the CT for Eddie Stobart. When Cavendish isn't racing they will be relying on mostly breakaway results, and I don't think that is enough to keep them off bottom spot, although they are very close to Sauber.
Team
Eritel - Sonatrach
Country
Eritrea
Best Rider
Natnael Berhane - 80 Mo 75 Hi 77 Sta
Prediction
8th
After several years of consolidating a position near the top of the PCT standings, Eritel look set for another year in the top ten despite some changes in the team in transfers.
For the second consecutive season, Berhane has improved in the mountains and is now among the best climbers in the division. His all-round climbing ability is impressive and puts him on par with many other big-name climbers in the division, and he has good support in the form of Teklehaimanot, although the strong climbing depth in the PCT could means points do not come freely in all races.
Despite having all-African sponsors this season for the first time, two of their biggest leaders are still British. Once again Bibby provides a strong stage racing option, and could well score in any race with uphills and a TT. I think despite the influx of climbers he will remain a great scorer, and although being as high as 13th in the individual standing may not be possible his all-round ability should ensure he finished high up in the GC wherever he races.
The other Brit is Dowsett, who leads the team on the hills once again and will hope to better disappointing performances in previous years. He is one of the strongest puncheurs, but has quite poor backup stats compared to his rivals so his success could vary depending on the toughness on the race. He’ll be helped by the arrival of a great support rider in Teklit, who returns after a season of development in the PT.
They have also improved their sprinting depth, with both Van Heerden and Van der Sande arriving to provide fastmen who can also handle climbing relatively well. I'm not sure on the former because of his acceleration ability, so he could either do very well or not perform. The team is not terrible on cobbles either, with Algerian Lagab providing an outsider in those races. He did very well last year, and he should score decently this time around as well.
Berhane’s improvement and the arrival of two new sprinters mean Eritel have certainly improved. However, I think a top 5 may still be out of reach with direct rivals improving as well. Despite this I still think another strong season in the top 10 is very probable.
One of the surprises of the CT season last year, Euskaltel managed to finish fourth after getting many results from mid-stage attacks from their huge climbing depth. They have gone for the same idea this year, and although there is huge depth in that department in the division this year I think they will manage to stay up.
I think this because they have such amazing depth on the climbs. With 12 riders who are at least decent in the mountains they should be in almost every break on these stages and get some great results from this alone like last season. Their top rider is Valls, who I think can get some solid GC results, due to a good all-round climbing ability. However, he could struggle against the very best even with such huge support.
Wisely they have also decided to get a sprinting department, in case they struggle to get the same success on the mountains they found last season. Bouhanni is their leader on the flats and although he isn't the fastest the Frenchman should be able to be in and around the top 10 in the flat classics most of the time. The likes of Bonnet and Reza should provide a strong leadout as well.
Apart from those two terrains there is not many scorers, but I think although they don't have top calibre leaders their depth makes up for that, and I am tipping them to surprise again and finish safe, although being in a relegation battle all year.
Team
Evonik - ELKO
Country
Germany
Best Rider
Luis Leon Sanchez Gil - 79 Hi 77 Mo 75 TT
Prediction
13th
It was a strong first season for Evonik, who despite investing well in talents managed to reach the top 10 in the CT, which was easily enough to promote. This season they have managed to strengthen really well and I think the top half is definitely achievable for them.
I think their strongest rider is probably Sanchez, who I think will be a great addition from fellow PCT squad Rothaus. The Spaniard is ageing a bit but will still be a great rider this season, combining being a great puncheur with strong climbing and TT ability. I think that mix of abilities could make him a big threat in several stage races on the calendar, as well as in the tougher hilly classics.
The other big name is the cobbles legend Boonen, who despite declining in previous years should be a great scorer after taking a step down. Fast on the cobbles and even faster in a sprint, the Belgian should be in contention for both the cobbled classics and flat classics; although in the latter he will not be amongst the favourites. Still, I think he will pick up a win or two this season along with plenty of good results on the cobbles.
They don't have many other potential scorers, meaning they will once more have to rely on Geschke, who was so important for them as he finished 4th in the CT individual standings. His climbing and sprinting power will be a good combination once again, but he will face more competition in this division and with certainly score less than previously. Siskevicus is another who can contribute a little in hilly races.
The main reason for the lack of secondary leaders is the signing of talent Mohoric, who should be one of the game's top puncheurs when fully mature.
I think getting a big talent is always a good risk to take, and should pay off in the long term. The lack of secondary leaders could hurt Evonik if their leaders don't fire but I think they are too strong to fail. If they do well I can see the German squad reaching the top half.
Team
Gazelle
Country
Netherlands
Best Rider
Fillipo Pozzato - 77 Hi 76 Sp 78 Fl
Prediction
4th
Gazelle had a very strong start to life in the PCT, finishing in the top 10 and even declining the option of promoting. After another strong transfer season I can see them going up automatically this time around.
Monfort remains a big rider in the hills for them, but I think new signing from Volkswagen Pozzato could well out score him with almost the same climbing ability and a great sprint as well. Both riders should be great scorers in hilly races, even though there seems to be stronger puncheurs in the PCT this season. They are also greatly supported by huge hilly depth which should help them perform better in some situations.
Two new arrivals mean Gazelle can compete well in stage races with a TT. Kangert will give them a great stage racing option, as he is one of the best all-round riders in the division for these races with climbing ability and a strong time-trial. Koren is also a good stage racer and despite being a bit weaker on the climbs then Kangert he should still do well in a few races.
They are also are strong on the cobbles with Veelers combining a good sprint with cobbled strength. He is not the best on the hills, which could hinder him, but on the flatter cobbled races he will be among the favourites, especially with him backed up by Nuyens.
Overall there is great depth all around here, especially on the hills as you would expect from Gazelle and despite the absence of an outright race-winner I think automatic promotion is very much on the cards for them. Last year they seemed to outscore for the strength of their squad, and judging on previous years that could well happen and they could finish even higher than my prediction.
Team
Grupo Nutresa
Country
Colombia
Best Rider
Domenik Klemme - 80 Hi 74 Mo 74 Sta
Prediction
17th
It was the perfect start to life last season at Nutresa as they won the CT title in a close fight with Bonsucro which went down to the final days of the season. After a good transfer season I think they have a good team which should be able to stay well away from relegation and finish in a lower mid-table position.
They have a strong leader for the hills in the form of Klemme, who is one of the strongest puncheurs in the division as well as also being relatively strong on the mountains, a combination that should mean he does best in the toughest hilly classics. What he lacks in some backup stats is made up by his good support, with home talent Chavez being a strong super-domestique.
A strong mountains leader was also brought in in the form of Talansky. The American is not the strongest climber in the division due to the increased strength and he is not an explosive type of climber. However, his all-round climbing ability and decent TT should mean a few good GC results. He is also ably supported, most prominently by Aguledo and Ardila Cano.
Although far from their strongest department, Nutresa also signed some sprinters, most notably Gavazzi who's fast finish and decent climbing ability should give him some good results in rolling stages and classics.
Strong leaders on most terrains means Nutresa are probably headed for mid-table obscurity this season. The have too many good scorers to be threatened by relegation, and for that reason I think lower mid-table should be where they end up.
Team
Karcher - Adira
Country
Germany
Best Rider
Jacob Fiedler - 83 TT 82 Prl 79 Fl
Prediction
21st
Karcher had a decent first season in the PCT, where they adapted to life well enough and managed to stay clear of the relegation battle, eventually finishing in 21st. Although there were attempts to strengthen in transfers, I am predicting a similar season for them again this year.
The big-name signing here was TT monster Fiedler, who is the best in the division against the clock by quite a bit. This means that he should be almost guaranteed to win races that have a decisive time-trial stage, an ability that could make him a huge scorer. When not in contention for the GC he will still pick up stage wins as well, which is great for Karcher. He heads a strong TTT lineup that could pick up wins as well.
He is the best rider here by a long way though. The next best department is sprinting, with two leaders. Kupfernagel is the faster of the two and should pick up points in the flat classics despite not being as quick as the division's best. Haussler is the other, offering an option for tougher rolling stages and classics with a better climbing ability.
There is also a useful squad on the hills. McEvoy combines being a decent puncheur with a strong sprint, which could see him score well if races with the right balance are found for him. There is also loanee Vakoc, who is a slightly better climber and can also sprint a little. Neither have anywhere near the strength on the hills of the top puncheurs though, which could limit their scoring.
There's no doubt Fiedler will go very well in this division, but Karcher lack a big second leader to help them into the top half. I think they'll be safe from relegation, but could be dragged into a battle if their secondary leaders struggle.
Bulgaria had a tough first year in PCT where they finished 26th and were therefore relegated. Fortunately for them, the large number of disbandments meant they get another chance at this level. Their transfer season was hardly ideal though, and with a largely similar squad to last year I can see them finishing in the bottom five once again.
Thomas remains with the team for a third consecutive season, and will once again lead the team on the cobbles. A late season victory from him at Wanze - Arenberg meant his team has a chance of staying up, but it wasn't to be. The Briton is strong on the cobbles and can sprint also, making him strong on the flatter cobbled races. He isn't great on the hills though, so will struggle in the several hilly cobbled classics. He also has a great support rider in Grashev, who even got some great results on his own last season.
Their sprinting is the terrain where they have improved, with Aussie fastman Nelson arriving as one of the quickest in the division who should be a threat in the flat classics. He is not the strongest on the hills and could struggle in tougher races, but should be a contender in most flat classics. Bulgaria have three other sprinters in Vanoverschelde, Soupe and Greipel, who can be good leadouts or could go for results themselves, but they aren't the fastest and could struggle against the division's best.
Home favourite Pananyotov will continue to lead on the mountains, but the increased quality of climbing in the division could mean his scoring opportunities are limited to races where weaker fields are present in the longer stage races.
It is also worth noting they have a nice group of talents, with Ewan, Alaphillipe and Yates all being very strong in the future. They won't be able to boost the team's fortunes this season though.
I think there has been an improvement with the addition of a sprinting department here, but I can't see Pananyotov scoring too well on the mountains or Thomas picking up enough points to keep Bulgaria up, with many teams around them overtaking the Bulgarians. I think they'll definitely be in a relegation fight and could stay up, but I think it just won't be enough.
Team
Mobil - Aeropostal Ciclismo
Country
Venezuela
Best Rider
Jose Rujano - 81 Mo 73 Hi 70 TT
Prediction
22nd
Mobil were one of three teams lucky enough to get a reprieve from relegation at the end of last season because of disbandments, after a season where they really struggled. This year their squad is alarmingly similar, although they have added a big leader in Rujano who should make them safe in my opinion.
The mountains is again their best terrain, and as mentioned home rider Rujano has arrived from the PT to give them a big leader on the mountains, which was especially needed after last year's leader Pedraza declined and the PCT's climbing depth increased. I think the Venezuelan can do relatively well in races without a TT, which is is major weakness compared to the other big climbers. Moschella and Pedraza offer great support, and those two could be able to score decently in their own right in their leader's absence.
Their other leader from 2014 remains to lead them in the sprints, who is Granjel Cabrera. The Cuban isn't the fastest but has great backup stats which should mean he can contend in the tougher flat stages and classics. Team legend Dall'Antonia returns after leading in the team's CT days to provide a capable leadout.
Only two terrains where they will score really, but I think they are strong enough on those to stay away from relegation. However, if Rujano finds things tough and keeps encountering stacked fields things could get close for Mobil.
Team
ONCE - Eroski
Country
Spain
Best Rider
Janez Brajkovic - 81 Mo 76 Hi 78 TT
Prediction
19th
One of three promoting teams that are entering their third MG season, ONCE had a great year last time around where they managed to finish in 3rd in the CT. After taking the step up to PCT they have mainly strengthened in the mountains, and although this is a tough terrain to focus on with such depth in the division I think they are strong enough to get to safety.
PCT individual champion Brajkovic will struggle to replicate his previous season, where he took disbanding squad Heineken into the promotion spots. With the increased climbing depth of the division he will struggle to beat riders such as Machado and Contador every time he races, but a strong TT means he should be able to compete with them some of the time in stage-races.
They also have a second-tier mountains leader in Anton, meaning they should cover every mountain race on the calendar. The Spaniard will struggle against the division's best but should be able to grab a top 5 here and there where the field isn't as packed in the longer races. Both riders have capable support, with Pantano being a great super-domestique who can lead on occasion.
A decent strengthening job overall, and although I think it may not have been such a smart move to focus on the mountains Brajkovic and Anton should provide enough points to mean their second tier leaders only have to do decently for them to stay up, which I think they will do.
Team
Prio - Porto
Country
Portugal
Best Rider
Tiago Machado - 84 Mo 77 Hi 74 TT
Prediction
1st
After tough year in the PT last season where they were relegated, I think Prio's fortunes have turned and the Portuguese team could be champions at the end of the season, despite a relatively quiet transfer season where they held onto their big riders.
World class stage-racer Machado stays with the team, and is perhaps the only big climber in the division guaranteed to win races which should be vital in his limited 31 racedays. His ability on the mountains, backed up by being strong on the hills and decent on the TT bike should mean he does very well in all of his races, if not winning them. Supported by capable domestiques Reis and Oliveira, who can score points in their own right, he should be a huge scorer at this level.
Costa's ability on the hills and TTs makes him a big threat in several stage races with a hilly stage and TT on the calendar, and should challenge for wins in the hilly classics as well along with the other big puncheurs in the division due to his strength on the hills.
Their third best terrain is sprints, where leader Avelino is one of the fastest sprinters in the division. He could also do very well in the various flat stage races and classics, with sprinting slightly less competitive this season. His train isn’t the best, but the likes of Coutinho and Caldeira provide decent enough leadout options.
Those three leaders plus plenty of depth, especially in the mountains, provide a great point scoring base which could put Prio top of the division. The 70 racedays that Costa and Machado share should be guaranteed points, but I think it will be the other 70 which decide their level of success.
Team
Project: Africa
Country
South Africa
Best Rider
Ryan Eastman - 80 Mo 71 Hi 74 TT
Prediction
14th
Last season was a disappointing one for Project: Africa as they finished in the relegation places largely down to a mistake in transfers. However, this season things are looking a lot better, after some good signings which should get them into the top half.
Before transfers, the team stated intent to improve in the mountains, and in signing Eastman they have definitely done that. He is definitely the big leader they needed, and although he may not score massively due to the high level of competition he represents an upgrade on last year's leader Augustyn, who is now a strong super domestique.
Another strong arrival is Craven, who was a race winner last year for promoted Venchi. His combination of climbing and TT should prove useful in several TT stage races along with him being a good TTT rider and decent bet for the hilly classics in the races that he rides. They also have Janse van Rensburg, another good rider against the clock.
A different type of climber to Eastman is Bennett, who is a more all-round climber despite not being quite as strong in the mountains. This should come in handy in races with mountains and hilly stages. Another rider capable of scoring points is South African Hoffman, who's a sprinter with great backup stats which should help him beat faster sprinters on rolling stages.
No big points scorers here but enough capable riders to ensure a steady income of points from most races and I think it should be good enough for a top-half finish, which should be a nice change after last year's disappointing season right at the bottom.
RBC was a lower mid-table team last season, and despite not being dragged into a relegation battle they will have hoped for more. Over the off-season they have strengthened well and the leaders they have signed seem strong enough for them to move into the top ten and into promotion contention.
Coming from Bacardi is Intxausti, who was third in the individual standings last season. With the increased climbing depth I don't think that'll be possible again but the Spaniard's stage racing ability should be more than enough to score very well. Another stage racer they have is Boily, who's all-round climbing ability should provide a good combination in stage races with hills and mountains.
Bellis stays as a strong leader on the hills, who makes up for being slightly weaker than the top riders on the hills with a great sprint finish. Boily is another option for the tougher hilly races that the Briton doesn't fancy.
There is also a strong time-trial department, headed by Reus who should be a contender in several TT stage races due to his ability to climb as well. The all-round TT depth in this squad, with riders like Grabovski, Flens and Kreuziger present makes it probably the strongest TTT squad in the division, which could be another source of points.
The good strength on these three terrains means I think RBC can score very well in a lot of races this season, and their leaders should bring enough points to put them in the race for promotion.
Team
Risa - Ergon
Country
Norway
Best Rider
Guillame Levarlet - 79 Hi 74 Hi 73 Rec
Prediction
18th
One of a few promoting teams now in their third season, Risa had a successful 2014 where they finished seventh in the PCT. After strengthening well enough on the cobbles, hills and time-trials I think they have enough about them to stay out of a relegation battle.
It's the hills that are probably their best terrain. Levarlet arrived from Aker - Mot and along with being a strong puncheur he can also go decently on the mountains, meaning tougher hilly stages and classics could be well suited to him. Meyer is another option for these races, which can also sprint although he is a bit weaker on the climbs. Juul-Jensen and Haas provide very decent backup also, making it a very in-depth department.
Another strong rider for Risa is Trentin, who should be a big threat in several cobbled classics. He may not be the strongest in the division on the cobbles but he makes up for it with a strong ability on the hills and a strong sprint as well. He is also supported well by Steurs, who should also get some decent results independently.
The team has also invested in a strong TT department, and that should mean they are strong in team time trials. Dempster is their strongest rider here, and should pick up some good GC and stage results because of his time trial ability. Christensen and Steensen are also good options for these races.
This squad has a good feel to it, and despite it focusing on just three main disciplines I think they have good depth in these areas and they should score well enough to keep them out of a relegation scrap and put them into the top 20 at least.
Team
Sauber Petronas Racing
Country
Malaysia
Best Rider
Edoardo Zardini - 76 Mo 77 Hi 72 Sp
Prediction
29th
Sauber decided to stay an extra year in the CT instead of promoting last season. This year they make the step up along with the majority of the CT division. Their transfer season wasn't ideal though, and I think along with Eddie Stobart Sauber are the favourite for relegation.
Their strongest rider is probably Zardini, who combines an ability to climb mountains and hills with a decent sprint. It's a combination which could score points in tougher hilly classics, and he is supported well with the likes of Schurter and Krizek. However, his backup stats aren't really up to scratch and that could hurt him results-wise.
Another potential scorer is Drucker, who's a strong cobbler who can also sprint well. This could be a good mix for the flatter cobbled races, although he has no support whatsoever and his climbing isn't up to the level of some of the other cobblers.
They also have a couple of decent all-round stage racers in the form of Rohregger and Zoidl, who could rack up a few points between themselves. However, they are nowhere near top riders at this level and their use could be limited to one or two good results.
Overall I think Sauber have signed too many weak domestiques and talents on boars, taking their squad to 27 riders, which in my opinion is far too many for this level. That meant they could not sign good enough leaders and their scoring ability will therefore probably not be enough to stay up.
Team
Siam Cement - Lenovo
Country
Thailand
Best Rider
Robert Kiserlovski - 80 Mo 75 Hi 72 TT
Prediction
20th
Siam had a great first season in the CT, in spite of losing one of their top riders at the end of transfers. This was largely down to one rider - Vitor Rodrigues won 5 stage races last season, and his points moved them up to as high as 6th in the final standings. They had a decent transfer season, and I can see them staying up although they could be drawn into a relegation fight if leaders struggle.
Their best terrain, like many of the new teams, is the mountains. Two big climbers were therefore brought in: stage-racer Kiserlovski and mountain goat Sella. Both will need to do well to keep the team out of a relegation battle, and I think they are good enough to do that, although in some races points may be harder to come by than in previous seasons due to the huge mountainous depth in the division. Team legend Rodrigues is also still at the team, but will probably just provide support to his two leaders.
Aside from those two, there is Kazakh cobbler Nepomnyachsniy who should be able to get a few top 10s in cobbled classics with his decent sprint as well, although he could struggle on the hillier cobbled races.
Kip was a late free agent signing, and should be a decent sprinter in some stages and classics, even if he will struggle on any stage with a small amount of uphill riding. Finally they also signed Dane Rasmus Quaade, who should get a couple of good results in time-trials over the season.
I don't think there's huge point scoring ability here looking past the two big riders on the mountains, and whether they can avoid the Machados and Contadors will probably determine Siam's fate. I think they have the ability to stay up though.
Team
Swedbank - PEAB
Country
Sweden
Best Rider
Jonas Ahlstrand - 81 Sp 80 Acc 77 Rec
Prediction
10th
After a couple of decent years in the PCT Swedbank will surely now be looking towards moving into the top 10 in the division and maybe even promotion. I think promotion may be a struggle for now but they have several good points scorers that should carry them to a strong finish.
I found it very hard to pick their best rider/terrain, but eventually went with home favourite Ahlstrand. He is not even fully developed, but is yet one of the fastest and well-rounded in terms of backup stats sprinters in the division, and I think he will score well because of this. He has a good leadout in Kvist and Kreder, which should mean he gets some good results in the sprints this year.
Late on in transfers they also signed Reimer, who is strong in both the hills and sprints. There seem to be quite a few of these in the division, but I think if Reimer can find the right type of races for his skills his fast sprint and good punchy ability could be a potent combination. A different option for the tougher hilly races is Hoogerland, who is good on the mountains also.
They also have a good stage-racing leader in the form of Lövkvist. I'm not sure how well he will do, considering the huge mountains strength this season. I think his hill ability could come in handy on hybrid stages, and he isn't terrible on the TT bike so I think he could still do well if he avoids the best climbers.
U23 ITT world champion is also present, and although not being in the very top band of time-triallists the Norwegian could still do well in flatter TTs.
A very well rounded squad is present here and I think that despite there not being a huge scorer all their leaders should be reasonably successful. A steady stream of points is always essential and if that can be found I think the top 10 is probable for this team.
One of three relegating teams, BPost had a relatively quiet transfer season where they held onto their top riders. The riders that couldn't keep them up last season should definitely be better at this level, and I think they should be enough to comfortably promote BPost to the PT once again.
I've put their top rider as Van den Broeck, but their best terrain by far is the cobbles. Vanspeybrouck should be one of two men to beat on the cobbles, along with Summerhill. The difference between the two is that the BPost man has huge support, with the likes of Stallaert and Albert both capable riders on their own. As a result they should score heavily on all cobbled races this year.
They also have one of the top climbers in the division in Van den Broeck. Despite lots of competition he should still be a great scorer in the mountains, and should be good enough to regularly get in the top three of stage races. He doesn't have huge support, but enough to not be disadvantaged in the races that he rides.
BPost also have one of the best time-triallists in the division with Cornu. His ability adds a third terrain where they should score well, especially in stage races with TT's as he is a decent hill climber also.
Finally they have replaced their sprinter Stauff with Keukleire, which is a slight downgrade but the young Belgian should still be good enough to deliver points in the flat classics, which should mean that the team should recieve points from all the races they ride.
That could be crucial, and I think it is between these and Prio for the PCT crown. Machado just edges it for the Portuguese team, but BPost should push them all the way and promotion is almost certain in my eyes for the Belgians.
Team
Team Kenya Airways
Country
Kenya
Best Rider
Daryl Impey - 80 Sp 81 Acc 73 Hi
Prediction
9th
Last season was a tough one for Kenya Airways, with the team finishing just one place above relegation. However, we had a good transfer season and I think we have signed the riders to help us improve and get into the top ten this time around.
The standout rider here is South African Daryl Impey, who comes in from PT squad Aker – Mot. With less depth in the sprinting of the division he could have a strong season, combining a great sprint with climbing ability as well which sets him apart from other fastmen and could mean more points from rolling stages and classics.
Last year’s talisman Ben Nasser remains to lead the team on the hills, and there is plenty of depth to back him up. He also has a useful sprint which could help him to better the other big hilly riders in the division on occasion. Kwiatkowski provides an option for tougher hilly races but will be used more in stage races.
Kenyan Samwel is a decent climber but could struggle again this season with such climbing strength in the division. As mentioned, Kwiatkowski is another new arrival from the free agency and should provide an option in stage races, with good all-round climbing ability.
Bookwalter is another rider who can pick up points with ability against the clock, while he is not useless on the climbs as well and consequently could hang on to decent GC positions in some races.
Overall, the arrival of Impey and others have hopefully improved the team as we can cow compete in nearly all races. The goal is a top ten place, and I think we can probably just achieve that.
Team
Team Puma - SAP
Country
Germany
Best Rider
Gerald Ciolek - 83 Sp 79 Acc 75 Fl
Prediction
3rd
Last year was a season of consolidation for Puma, as they were the only relegated team not to promote back to the PT immediately, instead opting to use a large chunk of their salary cap on super-talent Herklotz. Now though they have had big improvements over the off-season and should be ready to re-enter the PT.
Their best terrain is no doubt sprinting. Ciolek was one of the top riders in the division last season and with two of his biggest rivals moving to the PT he could now be even more successful. He is supported by probably the best leadout trains in the division, making the big favourite to take some flat classic wins this season.
They have improved well on the hills. In tougher hilly races Kelderman has returned better than before and will be among the top favourites. Demare adds another option for the easier hilly stages, combining a good hilly strength with the speed of a sprinter which could be a very potent combination. Felline is yet another thread, who is a mix of the two completing a trio of hilly scorers.
Their final leader is Nerz, who is another to have improved in the off-season. This improvement means he will be a contender in the mountainous races he rides, although the huge improvement in competitiveness in the mountains could means he doesn't score massively. Arndt could be a surprise scorer in these races also, due to a decent sprint as well as being a good climber.
Overall Puma are very strong on three terrains, with Ciolek standing out as a potential race winner. Their squad is also full of depth and strong riders, so I can see them doing really well this year. In my opinion, the top 3 is certainly in reach.
Team
Team TomTom
Country
Netherlands
Best Rider
Robin van der Hugenhaben - 80 Hi 77 Mo 71 TT
Prediction
7th
After joining the transfer season late last season, I was impressed with how TomTom managed to build a competitive squad. This season they have done very well once again, building a squad from scratch that could in my eyes even challenge for promotion.
The headline rider here is certainly van der Hugenhaben, admittedly arriving after a stroke of luck where a bidding rival's invalid bid lead to him joining TomTom. The Dutchman flopped last season in the PT, but he will be hoping a step down in division will do him good. His combination of mountain and hilly ability should make him a major threat wherever he rides, especially in tough hilly classics and stage races. He does however have a serious lack of support which could hurt him in some situations.
There is also a great sprinting contingent, led by Belgian Maxime Vantomme. He has had a couple of great seasons, propelling Rothaus and Quickstep to promotion in the last couple of years. As one of the division's fastest sprinters, can he do the same for TomTom? He certainly has a great train, and a strong leadout in Vingerling and Kreder.
They also brought in a strong TT leader in Dennis Van Winden, who should do very well in the flatter TTs and stage races on the calendar because of his ability on the TT bike. The team is also strong on the cobbles, with Maes leading them, who should be among the favourites in most cobbled races due to his amazing engine over both flat and cobbles.
TomTom definitely have the leaders to finish near the top of the division and be the best newly-promoted team. In some areas they do lack depth, which could hinder them, but overall a top ten in surely on the cards.
Team
Team Vontobel
Country
Switzerland
Best Rider
Cesare Di Maggio - 82 Hi 73 Sta 73 DH
Prediction
16th
A top 5 finish meant Vontobel's inaugural season was a successful one, meaning they promoted without the help of disbanding teams. In transfers I think they have strengthened well, and should be around the midway point this season, away from the battle against relegation.
The big signing from Venchi is Di Maggio, who has won countless races on the hills at this level. His lack of backup stats always makes him a wildcard, but he seems to deliver year on year and I think this season will be no different. Supported well by the likes of Wyss and Hollenstein, I think he will be near the top of the individual standings once again at the end of the season.
A strong mountain department was also brought in, headed by Cataldo who is another rider that scored very well last season. The influx of riders into the division should mean points are harder to come by but I think his combination of mountain and hilly strength should still prove a good combination. He is also supported strongly by Penasa and Maillet, the latter of which even won Tachira last season.
Finally, a third points scorer for the Swiss squad is another newcomer - Gatto combines being a solid puncheur with an even stronger kick at the end of a race making him a threat in many races on the calendar. What's more, he can also ride on the cobbles, and could surprise a couple of people in those races if he is able to hold on.
Those three arrivals as leaders made it an impressive transfer season for Vontobel, and although they are definitely not the best promoted team they should certainly have no problems adjusting to life in the PCT.
Great style of preview Froomedog, well-written informative text with your own opinions makes for an entertaining read.
12th sounds about right for the team, hard to say though really. I like to think we can give our Vuelta compadres, Buff - Polska, a real battle all season long!
The Rider wrote:
Great style of preview Froomedog, well-written informative text with your own opinions makes for an entertaining read.
12th sounds about right for the team, hard to say though really. I like to think we can give our Vuelta compares, Buff - Polska, a real battle all season long!
Thanks! Your team was one I found tough to place, as I'm not sure about how successful Roy will be and you will heavily depend on Contador. I think you will be around that range though if they both do as I expect.
Also put up Euskaltel, Evonik, Gazelle, Nutresa and Karcher now. They will be the last for tonight, so have also updated the ranking with the teams I have posted so far.
Woah that is a massive call for Gazelle! A top 10 is pretty likely but without a big marquee rider I can't see them getting enough for a top 5 with the huge strength at the top this year.
It all depends on Krasnoperov, and we really have no clue how good or bad he will be. If Di Maggio can do well on hills, Krasno should be able to do well in stage races, and with Nepo for some other races, and a decent-ish TTT setup I feel like I could just break into the top 20, perhaps a bit lower. Seems pretty accurate I guess.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game
Technically we are Canadian registered this year, but swapping that for Bulgaria is understandable. Can't disagree too heavily on the words as we will probably be around that end of the relegation battle, but we won't go down!
Putting up that rankings prediction at the start and filling in the spots makes the wait for our preview even worse as there are quite a couple of Top 10 spots left