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jack888
Top  #1 Print Post
Posted on 22-01-2013 04:19
Often at the end of each season our brilliant PT/PCT/CT previewers beat themselves up about their selections for being slightly off. So what I am about to do now is produce an 'end of year' ranking based purely on random chance. At the end of the season we can then compare our 'human' predictions with the 'random' ones, which might tell us how predictable/random the man game really is, and how much of an advantage being a human with knowledge of PCM gives you over random chance.

The first step I did was throw a list of our 30 PCM teams into excel. Then I went to https://www.random... to produce a sequence of random numbers from 1 to 30. The I pasted the sequence next to my list of teams to assign them their final position.

Here it is:

1. Tinkoff
2. Bintang
3. Jaguar
4. Swedbank
5. Rothaus
6. ING
7. WWE
8. Meji
9. Cisco
10. Armavia
11. UPC
12. Pivovarna Lasko
13. Bpost
14. Prio Porto
15. AirBaltic
16. Mentinvest
17. Lukoil
18. CSC
19. Vespa
20. Repsol
21. Evian
22. Oz Cycling
23. SRAM
24. Vueling
25. AMEX
26. Hollister
27. Volkswagon
28. Bouygues Telecom
29. Alstom
30. HTC


Don't be offended by any prediction, it was just a randomly generated string of numbers. And if anyone is suspicious about where my team ended up! Believe me I wanted to switch myself with another team just to avoid this suspicion but that would ruin my experiment so I didn't consider it!

I haven't done much research this season especially on the newer teams so I don't know how accurate or inaccurate or accurate this is so let us know in a reply. Also, this didn't take me long so if you like the idea I'll whip up one for the PT and CT predictions.

-Jack


 
CountArach
Top  #2 Print Post
Posted on 22-01-2013 07:02
Some of these look remarkably possible... Tinkoff should be around the top and so should ING. Others though, like Bouyges near the bottom just have to be way off.

Still, it will be interesting to compare this!
i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PCT/bps_zps2b426596.png Manager of Team Bpost - Vlaanderen i439.photobucket.com/albums/qq112/Gustavovskiy/microjerseys/PCT/bps_zps2b426596.png

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(All opinions expressed are not guaranteed to reflect reality)
 
Bjartne
Top  #3 Print Post
Posted on 22-01-2013 07:59
I would be happier if my 10th place was based on your prediction, but then again, you would be quite stupid. Nice project mate, let's see how much randomness there really is in PCM Smile
 
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Heine
Top  #4 Print Post
Posted on 22-01-2013 08:11
If you are right I should atleast have an awesome CT-team next season Grin

Edit: You should do the same for CT and PT, just to have a larger sample ;-)
Edited by Heine on 22-01-2013 08:13
 
jt1109
Top  #5 Print Post
Posted on 22-01-2013 10:43
Mine looks very possible based on my first two results!
 
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