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Down Under Classic Discussion
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:10
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The 2012 season is but a distant memory. New managers have joined the game, teams have transformed themselves over the transfers season, and subsequently been planned out for the season ahead. Now we go racing.
Rather than Adelaide, Melbourne has moved in to take over this race and chosen a familiar circuit for the race: the Albert Park layout more commonly seen as the opener for the Formula 1 season. The profile remains the same however: short and flat.
History shows that Australians fare well here. Not just in victory, with Allan Davis the double defending champion, but in results that end up the highlight of their season: Daniel Thorsen 5th in 2011, Graeme Brown 3rd in 2012.
But who do we need to look out for this year? The HC nature of selection for this race means that some PCT riders who would be very well suited to this race are absent, but still we have a strong startlist on our hands.
Danilo Napolitano is the number 1 favourite, as season long the pressure is on for him to justify being the highest paid Sprinter in the division. Despite having been a regular on the Continental circuit on recent years, he has yet to feature in this race. With support from Sonnery and Manarelli, can we expect a pink leadout train taking charge of the race late on?
In terms of leadout potential, AirBaltic-Endura seem to have it covered. You would expect Mark Cavendish, runner up in 2011, to lead them, but there is also Tomas Vaitkus, 4th last year, new signing Matt Rowe, and Australian champion Mitch Docker.
No longer the highest paid Sprinter, and with an added focus on one day classics this year, is this the season for Vantomme? It surely can't be worse than his efforts last season.
Returning to Continental level this season is South African Nolan Hoffman. The bookies fancy his chances, riding for the Metinvest-Emirates squad.
Moving on to WWE, and a sprinter who like Vantomme has recently been more known to disappoint than otherwise, Andre Greipel. There is good support from Vingerling, but little else.
And we move on to the home favourite. Can Allan Davis make it 3 in a row? He beat Bennati last year, a hard thing to do it proved as the season progressed, and will surely fancy his chances to beat Napolitano and co. this year.
Theo Bos is also here. So all words previously have gone to waste, we know who will win already.
Heinrich Haussler has got the speed, but not so much the acceleration. This probably isnt the sprint most suited to him over the season, but he is still in with a shot. Having performed relatively well in the Tour de France sprints, Michel Kreder does have a good acceleration, and with Giaux, Van Hummel and Ahlstrand, could be the beneficiary of a Swedbank leadout. Meanwhile promotion contenders ING have hopes for Kip here.
  
Now to look at the outside Australian chances. Home favourite Oz Cycling bring Damian Drapac and an aging Baden Cooke, plus the Dane Alex Rasmussen. Norwegian-Australian squad Risa - Ergon will have confidence in Chris Sutton after the pre-season Bay Crits, but competition is at a whole other level here. And fellow CT squad Allianz-BMW have taken the Daniel Thorsen risk, with Hans Dekkers as backup.
  
UPC bring Veelers and Van Poppel who will struggle in such a high quality field. Meiji may fare better with Asians Park and Manan and Alstom have similar chances to these teams with Haddou, Soupe and Tzortzakis.
  
Onto our final teams. Mobil have Dall'Antonia, LukOil have Mironov and Cisco have Vesely. They will struggle to make their presence felt.
  
So, who is going to win?
Edited by SportingNonsense on 20-01-2013 11:47
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:13
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This is going to be fun. My bet for the win is Air Endura with Vaitkus, I'm not shore if Napolitano is actually going to win. |
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| Vien |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:17
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Yay, the season is starting! I'm going for Napo here, though Sonnery as a leadout is a risky choice. Will be really interesting to see what the BMW-Allianz does here, will give a good view of the chances of my sprinters in C1 races.
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| roturn |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:19
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Nice presentation and nice to see the MG starts with the first official races. 
Vantomme still being listed as top3 favourite. Can live with that although I can see 5-6 more guys who will probably be ahead of him. Still I have a bit of hope.
Either Napolitano proves to be the next Benatti "I just win all the classics" or airBaltic will win this I think.
Davis won`t make the hattrick. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 06:15
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:25
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I have noone in this race, but I will surely follow it. Extremely good preview for a small classic SN!
I actually think Napolitano will do great, but there are many who could threathen him. Will be very interresting to see whether Vantomme could bring some glory to Rothaus or he continue to cause frustration for his manager  |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:27
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Good presentation  Hoping for a top 10 with Sutton. The win? I'll say Napolitano.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:31
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This will be fun, finally it's start Interesting to see if we can form some kind of train and set Kreder in a good position and make a decent result.
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| Heine |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:32
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While others here seem to think Davis wont win I think he can do it, he got a nice team and the nationality bonus... Other than that I believe Sutton can suprise, I will root for him after his succses in the Criteriums 
Edit: Yay! Season start!
Edit2: Vantomme will fail, I said it!
Edited by Heine on 20-01-2013 11:34
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| jph27 |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:34
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If Napo wins, Parmo's (wiki it) on the house. 83,79,78,76,75,75,74,73 are our sprint stats. Don't mention the flat ones. Come on pink army  |
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| fenian_1234 |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:37
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Due to the length of this race, I'm tipping Bos though.
There you go, the Kiss of Death. |
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| roturn |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:40
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Heine wrote:
Edit2: Vantomme will fail, I said it!
So we are already two believing in him. |
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| felix_29 |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:42
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Top5 for Haussler is possible. Last season he beat Vantomme with a sprint stat of 78, so i can't wait to see what he he'll do with 80.
Although i'm sick of Italian sprinters dominating the PCT sprints, Napolitano will win this.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:45
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Let the games begin!
SportingNonsense wrote:
Meanwhile promotion contenders ING have hopes for ING here.
For whom else should they?
Miguel98 wrote:
This is going to be fun. My bet for the win is Air Endura with Vaitkus, I'm not shore if Napolitano is actually going to win.
Vaitkus? Never. I guess you meant Cavendish, in which case I support that view.
jph27 wrote:
If Napo wins, Parmo's (wiki it) on the house. 83,79,78,76,75,75,74,73 are our sprint stats. Don't mention the flat ones. Come on pink army
Help me out for a moment, which stat solely matters until 3k to go?
And subsequently, which stat is completely unimportant for all but 3 riders at the most?
felix_29 wrote:
Although i'm sick of Italian sprinters dominating the PCT sprints, Napolitano will win this.
I'm happy we're in PT as well
Edited by cio93 on 20-01-2013 11:48
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| jph27 |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:54
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I was priced out of everyone with a good flat stat. And I haven't played PCM for three years |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:57
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Top-10 is all we can hope for, I guess.
Sutton will win this If not, I have a feeling, that this could be a breakthrough-race for Vantomme.. anyway, excited about how the season kicks off!
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 20-01-2013 11:58
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jph27 wrote:
I was priced out of everyone with a good flat stat. And I haven't played PCM for three years
I am not sure what'll happen in this race, but a lot of test stages I did in PCM12 - riders with trains go too early and are usually overtaken. Hope that doesn't happen this time
Should be a good opener anyway. Want Vantomme or Bos to win.
Edited by Alakagom on 20-01-2013 11:58
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 20-01-2013 12:05
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Alakagom wrote:
jph27 wrote:
I was priced out of everyone with a good flat stat. And I haven't played PCM for three years
I am not sure what'll happen in this race, but a lot of test stages I did in PCM12 - riders with trains go too early and are usually overtaken. Hope that doesn't happen this time
Should be a good opener anyway. Want Vantomme or Bos to win.
I would bet 5 PCM money as he doesn't even finish in the top 10. Too much importance in FL stat in PCM 12. |
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 20-01-2013 12:06
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Miguel98 wrote:
Alakagom wrote:
jph27 wrote:
I was priced out of everyone with a good flat stat. And I haven't played PCM for three years
I am not sure what'll happen in this race, but a lot of test stages I did in PCM12 - riders with trains go too early and are usually overtaken. Hope that doesn't happen this time
Should be a good opener anyway. Want Vantomme or Bos to win.
I would bet 5 PCM money as he doesn't even finish in the top 10. Too much importance in FL stat in PCM 12.
I know I was just being sarcastic a bit. I thought you knew Bos is the best sprinter of them all ? He could destroy this field, if he wanted easily
Seriously, Vantomme stands a good chance, hopefully he starts reedeming his last season already here. Bos is just Bos
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 20-01-2013 12:19
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A mini-prediction game for you all. There is no prize, but it is a game nonetheless
Three teams will create leadouts in the race. Which 3 will they be?
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| roturn |
Posted on 20-01-2013 12:20
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airBaltic, Sram, Evian.
Maybe change Evian with Hollister...
I just hope it`s not my team...as Cucinotta, Van Heerden, Iglinski are not really the perfect lead-out material.
Edited by roturn on 20-01-2013 12:25
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