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Want a free beer? So do I
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| Crommy |
Posted on 19-06-2011 14:00
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8755
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 200.00
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Contracts in the Management Game
Given I've got very little to do at the moment, I decided to have a quick look at people's renewals, and then decided to try and analyse the renewal costs of riders. The aim was to try and find how good a wage each rider had.
To get this, we use a fairly complex formula, which takes into account that wages grow approximately exponentially with wage. This formula involves comparing the wage of a rider divided by their average, and then comparing this to the expected value that this should be (the expected value is generated from looking at all the riders and taking averages).
Basically, we look at average and wage, put it through a formula, and get a number. The larger the number, the better the renewal, the smaller the worse.
We must also remember that these numbers do not show how good a team or rider is, just how suitable a wage is for a rider, looking at only average and wage. So it doesn't take into account individual stats, past performance, previous wage etc.
So, onwards to some numbers:
Top 10 Contracts
| Name | Team | Average | Wage | Cost Ratio | | Janez Brajkovic | Domina Vacanze | 79 | €575,000 | 4,518 | | Alberto Contador | Festina – Conec | 79 | €590,000 | 4,000 | | Sam Bewley | Milka – Vittel | 81 | €750,000 | 3,879 | | Domenico Pozzovivo | Cerne | 79.2 | €600,000 | 3,797 | | Markus Fothen | Pearl Adidas | 79.2 | €600,000 | 3,797 | | Bernhard Eisel | Bimbo Nutella | 77 | €330,000 | 3,668 | | Wim De Vocht | Pearl Adidas | 75 | €110,000 | 3,644 | | Angel Madrazo | Santander | 78 | €750,000 | 3,562 | | Andrei Kasheckin | Webeffect | 78 | €420,750 | 3,556 | | Andrei Grivko | Team B&O | 75 | €115,000 | 3,444 |
So the best value for money rider is Domina Vacanze's Janez Brajkovic. He's a very good rider, having taken 2nd in last year's Paris-Nice, although his last season was slightly disappointing, as he could only manage 33rd in the individual rankings (he's the 23rd best rider in the game on average).
Perhaps the best deals though were for Wim De Vocht (Pearl Adidas) and Andrei Grivko (Team B&O). De Vocht has 78 in cobbles, and is a fantastic domestique for Enrico Franzoi in the cobble classics, whilst Grivko is a fantastic all-round domestique, with 74 in mountain and 76 in hill. These two are the kind of domestiques managers want, with the wages managers can normally only dream of.
Worst 10 Contracts
| Name | Team | Average | Wage | Cost Ratio | | José Serpa | Pirelli – Alfa Romeo | 75.2 | €500,000 | -11,797 | | Tejay Van Garderen | Wikipedia | 75.6 | €500,000 | -11,487 | | Andy Schleck | Domina Vacanze | 79.8 | €990,000 | -8,876 | | Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez | Festina-Corratec | 74.8 | €350,000 | -8,863 | | Taylor Phinney | Wikipedia | 78.8 | €775,000 | -8,327 | | Emanuele Sella | Webeffect | 80 | €1,027,500 | -6,178 | | Laurent Lefevre | Team Proximus - Trek | 58.2 | €50,000 | -6,098 | | David Zabriskie | Wikipedia | 77.8 | €600,000 | -5,693 | | André Steensen | Team B&O | 74.6 | €250,750 | -4,913 | | John Degenkolb | Team Pokerstars.com | 71.6 | €160,000 | -4,729 |
Two riders stand clear as the riders with the least value-for-money. José Serpa is a decent stage racer, and was used well last year to take 10th in the individual rankings of the Continental Tour, perhaps accounting for his inflated price.
Tejay Van Garderen also had a good season last year, taking 29th in the individual rankings in the ProTour, again perhaps accounting for the inflated wage.
The statistics suggest perhaps some harder negotiations may have been possible with these riders, but with these set of statistics only taking into account average, other factors may have inflated price.
I also feel that with the coming transfer period, all the riders on this list will certainly be overtaken by a lot of free agents, and it'll be interesting to see how the cost ratio changes once the transfer period has ended.
Average Cost Ratio for each team
So, now that we have a cost ratio for every rider, we can look at the average to get a rough indication of how well each team has negotiated.
| Position | Name | Average Cost Ratio | | 1 | Santander | 973.0996721993 | | 2 | Pearl Adidas | 963.7329222814 | | 3 | Jack Wolfskin | 517.0354420724 | | 4 | Vespa - Aprilia - De Rosa | 332.8283748102 | | 5 | Milka - Vittel | 332.4879505009 | | 6 | Rapha Condor - Qhubeka | 329.1392739875 | | 7 | Vesuvio-Accumalux | 306.5201648956 | | 8 | Nestlé Cycling Team | 292.2757084388 | | 9 | Focused Cycling | 224.453480731 | | 10 | Cerne | 211.2744048204 | | 11 | Bimbo Nutella | 160.5396919409 | | 12 | California Giant Berry Farms-Specialized | 148.8006438179 | | 13 | Sony Ericsson | 115.6952824382 | | 14 | Carmeuse - Bouygues Telecom | 76.4990346518 | | 15 | Wiggle - San Pellegrino | 66.9347490543 | | 16 | Café de Colombia | 44.3167283906 | | 17 | Festina - Conec | 44.2982197685 | | 18 | Hollister Pro Cycling | 30.0487329096 | | 19 | Webeffect | 11.8900629189 | | 20 | Domina Vacanze | -21.0741519993 | | 21 | UBS - La Pierre | -32.7448783142 | | 22 | Team WWE | -113.0490252322 | | 23 | Team B&O | -132.3816195037 | | 24 | Jayco - Red Bull | -156.8792215635 | | 25 | Pendleton's Twicer | -208.6185329868 | | 26 | VolksWagen - Siemens | -245.5619493387 | | 27 | T.CS Bank - OJSC | -299.3160001242 | | 28 | Saab - Scania | -355.2796040137 | | 29 | Bacardi – Ignis | -372.0867705397 | | 30 | Team Proximus - Trek | -432.0007422569 | | 31 | Team Spyker Cars | -443.7191140726 | | 32 | Team Pokerstars.com | -495.435414343 | | 33 | Team Bianchi | -551.2514724981 | | 34 | Pirelli - Alfa Romeo | -729.5137733064 | | 35 | UniCredit | -772.9589863923 | | 36 | Wikipedia | -799.8927609984 | | 37 | Team Emu Export | -810.8463980912 |
Santander and Pearl Adidas appear to be clear leaders. Santander only had 2 riders who perhaps should have been given lower wage, but only just (Didac Ortega with cost ratio of -126, Aitor Galdos with cost ratio of -152). Angel Madrazo was their best deal.
Pearl Adidas only had 3 riders with a negative cost ratio, and by far the worst of these was Romain Vanderbiest, with a cost ratio of -1,956. Markus Fothen and Wim De Vocht were the two star performances, both going for cost ratios above 3,500.
Team Emu Export had 11 riders with a negative cost ratio, with 6 riders below -1500, and 3 riders below -3,000. The worst was Hipolito Elias Martino, a 50k domestique with a cost ratio of -4,310. With an average of only 61.6, it would seem it would have been better to have let him go. But given his experience level is only 1, it seems to be an investment in the future (which we always like).
Wikipedia only had 4 riders with negative cost ratios, with the best at only -12. It's the trio of Zabriskie, Phinney and Van Garderen that let the rest down, with all 3 in the worst ten contracts. But they're very good riders, although Zabriskie may be leaving the team in the upcoming transfer period.
So there we have a quick look at contracts, which we'll return to at the end of the transfer period. If you want more information on the cost ratios for your team, either post here or PM me.
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| Rin |
Posted on 19-06-2011 14:10
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2582
Joined: 14-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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And for this result you want free beer? (Especially german beer)
I will give you a pat on the back but not more 
Someone else have to give you free beer so you have to hope for some scandinavian 
 Team Bianchi - 2012 Man-Game ProContinental Tour Champions
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 19-06-2011 14:17
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7802
Joined: 22-06-2009
PCM$: 750.00
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Very interesting, nice report Crommy. 
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| Heine |
Posted on 19-06-2011 14:20
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4467
Joined: 08-04-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Come to Norway and I'll buy you a beer (and since it's in Norway, it will be one with an inflated price) ;-) Well done!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 07-12-2025 16:45
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| rycadinho |
Posted on 19-06-2011 14:21
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1042
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Well those numbers are not quite happy to read if we look at my team though I'm pretty sure that Serpa will still be of great use due to his many race days and high climbing skill. It's pretty much about putting him in the correct races, something I managed pretty well last year.
One thing is clear though and I think the numbers pretty much sums it up and that is the fact that more quality is needed!
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| roturn |
Posted on 19-06-2011 14:27
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Team Manager
Posts: 22043
Joined: 24-11-2007
PCM$: 3900.00
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I have excellent contacts to the Rothaus brewery.
So I might send you a Tannenzäpfle. Delicious.
Nice to read. Although as new starter I can`T say too much about this stats. |
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| Heine |
Posted on 19-06-2011 14:29
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4467
Joined: 08-04-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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btw, Van Garderen's and Phinney's wage might be because they won the worlds?
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| Smowz |
Posted on 19-06-2011 14:39
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Team Leader
Posts: 6386
Joined: 09-04-2009
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This is another excellent little stats bit here, of course two more riders who would be interesting to note are Boonan and Spilak who would like command high wages for Warner Brothers.
Given that 50,000 is the minimum wage and a lot of teams have riders under development I was wondering if the ratios could be considered without those 50K riders or at least with out the non maxed out riders. John Degonkolb is an example here of a rider with a great future so it makes sense for Pokerstars to pay that wage.
But big claps to you Crommy for coming up with this!
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| jack888 |
Posted on 19-06-2011 14:42
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1225
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Yea, i stuffed up a bit. Didn't quite grasp the concept of how low we were supposed to go. But saying that i have a good base team at plenty of room for big signings in the upcoming season. |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 19-06-2011 14:47
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World Champion
Posts: 13561
Joined: 05-08-2008
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So, according to those statistics we had like the 3rd best renewals in the game. That's not bad at all 
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| p3druh |
Posted on 19-06-2011 15:03
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2388
Joined: 28-09-2007
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Excellent work Crommy
Yeah, Vanderbist does have a big salary but his results last season were good for the salary he demanded this year.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 19-06-2011 15:08
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Team Leader
Posts: 6177
Joined: 20-07-2008
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Nice to read Pozzovivo is such a bargain
You've got some great work there Crommy, and definitely deserve a beer.
Just one question: How did you get to do the Cost Ratio to each team? Did you get access to the renewals sheets or did you do some kind of estimation?
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| Crommy |
Posted on 19-06-2011 15:17
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8755
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 200.00
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Gustavovskiy wrote:
Nice to read Pozzovivo is such a bargain
You've got some great work there Crommy, and definitely deserve a beer.
Just one question: How did you get to do the Cost Ratio to each team? Did you get access to the renewals sheets or did you do some kind of estimation?
The latest DB has all the wages
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 19-06-2011 15:31
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World Champion
Posts: 13561
Joined: 05-08-2008
PCM$: 400.00
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Crommy, what was Plaza's cost ratio? I think he has quite a good contract for his average.
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| Crommy |
Posted on 19-06-2011 15:37
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8755
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 200.00
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alexkr00 wrote:
Crommy, what was Plaza's cost ratio? I think he has quite a good contract for his average.
His cost ratio was -756. But looking at him, he looks excellent value for money
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| niconico |
Posted on 19-06-2011 15:39
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3926
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Just yesterday I realized just how overpaid Andre Steensen is... thanking you for pointing that out Croms
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 19-06-2011 15:41
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World Champion
Posts: 13561
Joined: 05-08-2008
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Crommy wrote:
alexkr00 wrote:
Crommy, what was Plaza's cost ratio? I think he has quite a good contract for his average.
His cost ratio was -756. But looking at him, he looks excellent value for money
You don't have to tell me about it. Even though he had quite an amazing season with podiums in Catalunya and California, stage wins in Vuelta and Asturias and almost on the overall podium in La Vuelta, he barely asked for an increase for his already medium wage.
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| jolly_antunes |
Posted on 19-06-2011 21:54
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Sprinter
Posts: 1855
Joined: 14-08-2007
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Shocking, Sella overpriced, who would have guess that?
I'm actually pretty surprised i'm still "winning" money after contract renewals, i really thought i was losing tons of cash.
Nonetheless, great work Crommy
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| Christer |
Posted on 19-06-2011 22:52
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1309
Joined: 30-09-2007
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So -113.05 isn't really that bad? At least considering all those jumps.
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| mb2612 |
Posted on 19-06-2011 22:53
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Team Leader
Posts: 5535
Joined: 18-05-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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3 of my leaders are newly developed riders, so I'm not surprised they are good value for money, that said, Madrazo's average is 81, not 78 so it may be even better value than you think.
 [url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182] Team Santander Media Thread[/url]
Please assume I am joking unless otherwise stated |
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