I last posted a rankings thread in August after 14 races, Im not sure If I posted in a race thread since, but its been far too long - we've now had 33 comleted CT races after all. Thanks to Smowz for, amongst other things, the rankings estimates he has provided for some races - but now, after spending the evening adding on ranking points for 13 races - the new official rankings are available!
And where to start?
Let's go for the teams.
And as history shows in the game so far, being a Scandinavian team is often the key to dominating the division - and more recently and more specifically, being Swedish. The Danes of B&O dominated in 2009, while last year Sony Ericsson did not wait long before taking a stranglehold on the division. And this year, another Swedish team, IKEA - Bianchi are starting to do the same. Powered on by their unstoppable duo of Vanspeybrouck and Albert over the cobbles, alongside the climbing strengths of Taaramae and Alarcon, IKEA have punched past the 2000 point mark and into an 600 point lead - despite Alarcon's Malaysian curse having denied the team at least 200 points already. Their victory in E3 Prijs saw them take over the lead of the Continental tour for the first time - and theyve now held it for 14 races.
But all is not lost for the rest of the division. Far from it infact. Not only are the cobbles now over, but IKEA are also the team who have raced the most of everyone so far - with 84 race days, they are just 1 of 3 to have so far passed the 75 halfway marker, meaning that while we are still 10 races from the season's official midpoint, IKEA have already passed their raceday middle.
And so who is next? Well, as so often happens, teams tend to group together on certain scores, and it is a group of 3 that are 600-700 points down and currently occupying the rest of the promotion slots. UBS currently hold 2nd place, Roux having won Profronde van Drenthe, but the team also benefiting from Schumacher's scores in World's View and Euskal Bizikleta, aswell as Richeze sprinting well also in World's View, but with a stage in Malaysia to add to that.
The real team to watch in the division right now though are in 3rd place, and they are Wiggle - San Pellegrino. 11 races in, and they held the lead after the Giro del Sardegna. But it was to be another 11 races before they next raced, seeing themselves fall to 8th, some 600 points behind IKEA. And while that gap remains, they have moved themselves up through the field into 3rd - despite the cobbles focus of racing that only interested them once (Luke Rowe taking full advantage to win in Britain) - and perhaps most importantly, are the only team to currently average over 30 ranking points per race day used. They have so far only used 60 - 24 less than IKEA - with 100% Me being the only Top 10 team to have raced less than them.
Completing the current promotion holding placed teams is Petronas - Olympus. They have not raced a lot recently, but have made it count when they have done so. Mauricio Ortega grabbed a surprise win in Corsica, Simon Gerrans was less surprising with his World's View Challenge HC triumph, and while Matteo Carrara could not retain his Jelajah title - he still scored well.
Just under 200 points later, we have Mercedes-Benz and Santandar in a close battle for 5th, having both used the same amount of race days (which is also the same amount as Petronas). Mercedes have done well recently to maintain their position as they look to keep up a promotion fight - and could probably argue that were it not for bad luck, they may currently be standing in 4th position. In Turkey, they scored 201 points - more than race winning Bettini's Vespa team (although less than Wiggle) - but this does not tell the whole story. The best rider in the race was clearly Filippo Pozzato - he won 3 stages - but he had first crashed in the opening stage, wrecking his GC changes. Further misfortune struck in Jelajah, where Stetina made the mistake of riding too close to Alarcon in the final stage of a Malaysian event.
Mercedes had previously made a winning start to the season, but in contrast, Santander's has been a slow moving campaign. But crucially, things are certainly moving at a faster pace now for many's pre-season promotion favourites - theyve won 3 of their last 5 races. But even in victory, their slow start has been evident. JJ Cobo won the Euskal Bizikleta - but it took until the last stage for him to do so; and David Lopez Garcia inherited victory in Malaysia - again on the final stage. But if at the end of the season this pattern continues, and they secure promotion in the final race, I dont suppose theyll mind.
80 points after Santander, and 100% Me lead the 4-way battle taking up the remaining position in the Top 10. On the face of it, 100% Me have had a dissapointing season so far - underperforming sprinters, and an Adam Blythe who struggled with the pressure as favourite on the cobbles - and yet here they are in 7th place with the 4th best Points per race day ratio in the division, so something must be going right - even though an overall victory in a race still eludes them. Pokerstars.com are also yet to take an overall triumph, but stage victories and other consistent performance have helped them into 8th place as the leading new team - passing Red Bull who have slowed since Vuelta Castilla Leon, and watched themselves fall from 4th to 9th. Promotion may never have been a realistic option, but they must lift themselves once again to fight back in the battle of the rookies. But if we are saying Red Bull have slowed, that is nothing compared to SL Benfica. The previous leaders have fallen away after a strong start, with only 240 points in the last 20 races.
Pendleton's Twicer are currently 11th. They have half as many points as IKEA-Bianchi but have no reason to worry just yet - as they have used almost half as many race days! 44 are used, only Quiksilver (42) have been less active, and those 44 have been used well. Up in 3rd in the Points per Race Day table, and they will now hope that Gilbert's Frankfurt victory can kickstart them towards the Top 10, and who knows, maybe higher? Pendleton's are the first in a chain of 6 teams, separated by just over 100 points. New teams Bacardi-Colt and Bimbo Nutella are certainly impressing, while there is work to do for 3 of the more fancied teams pre-season of Cillit Bang, Vespa-Caffreys and Lego. El-Al, Telenor, Pirelli and Milka round out the Top 20, but all 4 are yet to pass the 1000 points mark.
IKEA lead the team rankings, and understandably, that translates onto the individual rankings aswell. 1st, 2nd and 7th is quite an achievement, with Rein Taaramae and Pieter Vanspeybrouck being separated by just 6 points at the top. The Estonian remains the longterm leader - always being in front although many have come close at times, and his 3 strong stage race scores are enough to top Vanspeybrouck's cobbles record of 4 wins, 1 second and 2 thirds. And showing who dominante IKEA were, 2 of the 3 non-Vanspeybrouck's wins went to Niels Albert - 23rd on the rankings.
Next on the rankings are David Abal and Jose Serpa. Both competed against Taaramae recently at the Giro del Trentino, and although overall honours went to Riccardo Ricco (30th), it was Serpa who scored best of the three. Ricco's Bacardi teammate Kim Kirchen has moved himself up to 5th place. He won Vuelta Castilla y Leon and was all set to win Euskal Bizikleta aswell, to do a Spanish double, before losing the race lead on the final stage to Cobo.
Vanspeybrouck's dominance limited the scope for cobbled riders to climb the rankings this season, but we do find Adam Blythe in 6th - despite some inconsistent showings - and he is one of two Brits up here, Jonathan Bellis having been a mainstay of the Top 10 so far this season, currently found in 8th. The unlucky Jose Alarcon is 7th - more luck might have seen an IKEA 1-2-3 atop the rankings, while Yukiya Arashiro still impresses up in 9th. Completing the Top 10 is Simone Ponzi, not bad considering he has used just 16 of his allocated 50 race days to date. Monfort and Steegmans are next before Schumacher, Kohl and Richeze all of UBS, plus Augustyn of Red Bull - like Arashiro, a surprise high flyer for the Red Bull team. Pozzato, Eisel, Hushovd and Ben Nasser are the rest of the Top 20.
447 of the 686 continental riders have now scored points - and that 686 value includes all of the Stagiares who will not come into play until later in the season.
Wow, great to see this rankings update. Encoaraging thing for me was that my estimates were nearly the same as your SN!
Promotion: Ikea and Wiggle seem well set, but I would say are yet to be certainties. Behind them I see five established teams scrambling for those spots: Pendletons, Petronas, UBS, Mercedes and Santander. 100% Me will be looking to be up there in the top eight also.
New teams: For me Bimbo Nutella, Pokerstars and Bacardi are emerging as the best of the new pack. Though Augustyn and Arashiro's overachievement have allowed Red Bull to join them! Pirelli, Tinkoff and Intesa I see as the potential to join them in fighting for a top 10 position which would be a fine achievement for a new team.
Six teams sleeping: Lego, Vespa, Quiksilver are all teams with the capacity to improve in the second half of the season. Though all three have a long way to go to be considered promotion candidates. Milka are one year off the Bewley plan, will probably be a big candidate next year. Benfica and Cillit Bang have had some very dodgy races where they score very little.
Goals not postion: Telenor seem to have one great race (Worlds view for example) and then three really weak races. They can be forgiven they are trying things out, as are Yamaha, Falcon and Highroad. Its not all about position for these teams. Not really sure what Youtubes grand plan is, absolutely dominate the Tour of America? They have achieved a win goal with Ochoa but some of their squads sent to races have been really weak. Likewise for Bbox. I think El Al should go better in small c1 stage races they do not have the strength for HC company. Unicredit have such a wage deficiency there is no way anything else but a quiet season could be expected.
Individual:
I suppose with Taaramae he has not that many race days left - I would assume he will do Vuelta a Burgos and possibly the Tour of Slovenia? Not sure where else he can make his talent pay out. There is still 4 HC hilly classics, but I guess competition is fierce there, someone like Ponzi could move up!
Vespa doing better than I thought. Second half of the season is going to be heavily dependent on Ginanni pulling in some big points. Took Top 10 as a goal so still achievable I think.
I'm happy with my current position. My points have to come from my 3 leaders, and so far, they are doing good. Luckely for me, all my leaders still have more than half their race-days left. Don't know if i will get so many points from those 1-day hilly classics though.
Well top 10 looks pretty hard but the team still got more race days left than most of our opponents. I can only hope that we will see some surprises since Serpa can't do everything himself.
Smowz is right, Frankfurt is the last race included. Dunkerque's stages so far have not been factored in to the rankings or the race day tallys.
Smowz wrote: Individual:
I suppose with Taaramae he has not that many race days left - I would assume he will do Vuelta a Burgos and possibly the Tour of Slovenia? Not sure where else he can make his talent pay out. There is still 4 HC hilly classics, but I guess competition is fierce there, someone like Ponzi could move up!
Actually, Taaramae has actually only used 14 of his 36 race days - theres a few stage races to come, some TT stuff, and dont forget we do also have 2 mountain one-day races on the calendar.
Smowz wrote: Individual:
I suppose with Taaramae he has not that many race days left - I would assume he will do Vuelta a Burgos and possibly the Tour of Slovenia? Not sure where else he can make his talent pay out. There is still 4 HC hilly classics, but I guess competition is fierce there, someone like Ponzi could move up!
In this cases, Taaramae and Ricco will ride a close matching schedule. Although i am wondering, why on earth, i ain't participating in the Tour of Slovenia <.<.
Really great. 15th in GC with only 49 race days and 7th in Points per RD class, which means that if we keep this rhytm we might finish in the first 8 places.
Well, i'm doing terribly, but at least i've got more race days left than anyone else so there's some hope there i suppose. Just need some of my riders to actually start doing anything in the races to come
As a further add on to the points per race days tally, here is what the current projected totals look like. Of course they cant be seen as a guarantee as a team doing well - a team who has had good fortune so far may suffer more misfortune, and vice versa - plus the factor of different types of races.
Pos Team Current Total Projection
1
Wiggle - San Pellegrino
1809
4523
2
Team IKEA - Bianchi
2460
4393
3
Pendleton's Twicer
1224
4173
4
100% Me
1488
4133
5
Petronas - Olympus
1745
3793
6
UBS - Annie Chun's
1864
3728
7
Bimbo Nutella
1155
3536
8
Mercedes-Benz
1572
3417
9
Santander
1563
3398
10
Red Bull
1441
3377
11
Bacardi - Colt
1191
3308
12
Team Pokerstars.com
1464
3093
13
Team LEGO
1113
3092
14
Sport Lisboa e Benfica
1407
3015
15
Pirelli - Internazionale
911
2847
16
Milka
817
2785
17
Vespa-Caffrey's
1165
2774
18
Cillit Bang - IT-Factory powered by the Moon X
1177
2759
19
Tinkoff Credit Systems - Rosneft
730
2281
20
Intesa
775
2114
21
Quiksilver-Kraft
555
1982
22
Team Telenor-SAS
916
1882
23
EL AL - IDF
941
1833
24
YouTube - Twitter
714
1648
25
Yamaha - Greenpeace
743
1466
26
UniCredit
397
1353
27
Bbox Bouygoues Telecom
530
1262
28
Team Falcon-Husqvarna
363
1068
29
HighRoad-TomTom
273
803
At this stage, I do think it would be a surprise if either of Wiggle or IKEA are not promoted, but beyond them it's hard to tell. Pendletons have a good projection, but are still currently playing catch up. 100% Me cant promote, and I dont see them ending in the Top 4 this season, and beyond that in the projection at least, its all very close.
I have mimxed feelings about this season. Though we are 5th, Pozzato has had both disapointing rides and bad luck. He should be up there in the top 3. On the other hand, my other riders have all done well. 5th on the team rankings, but only one guy in the top 20
IKEA remain top as Wiggle move into 2nd, the gap between the two remaining roughly the same - Ignatiev's Dunkerque win being countered by Giaux's Olympia win. This, despite Wiggle having simultaneously sent a strong and succesful squad to the Giro. After excelling in the two recent French races, we see Pokerstars.com rocket up to 3rd place - are they set to become the season's real surprise package?
UBS have slipped to 4th, only just ahead of 100% Me who have raced and scored in all of the 5 races since the last update. Petronas drop to 6th, while Mercedes-Benz remain 7th despite their Picardie victory.
Santander are excelling in ProTour races, but this does not help their promotion cause, as they fall to 8th - with Pendletons now up to 9th, and Red Bull holding onto 10th despite seeing no race action.
Further down, both Bimbo and Tinkoff have risen 3 places each to 12th and 20th respectively. Quiksilver and UniCredit both took some much needed points as the top 2 scorers in the HC Food Valley Classic race while the battle to avoid the bottom spot is currently very tight between Falcon and HighRoad.
1
Team IKEA - Bianchi
2700
2
Wiggle - San Pellegrino
2053
3
Team Pokerstars.com
2001
4
UBS - Annie Chun's
1920
5
100% Me
1909
6
Petronas - Olympus
1818
7
Mercedes-Benz
1779
8
Santander
1585
9
Pendleton's Twicer
1547
10
Red Bull
1441
11
Sport Lisboa e Benfica
1417
12
Bimbo Nutella
1327
13
Bacardi - Colt
1316
14
Cillit Bang - IT-Factory powered by the Moon X
1229
15
Vespa-Caffrey's
1226
16
Team LEGO
1224
17
EL AL - IDF
1172
18
Milka
1074
19
Team Telenor-SAS
1073
20
Tinkoff Credit Systems - Rosneft
1030
21
Pirelli - Internazionale
999
22
Intesa
965
23
Yamaha - Greenpeace
743
24
YouTube - Twitter
714
25
Quiksilver-Kraft
706
26
UniCredit
600
27
Bbox Bouygoues Telecom
549
28
Team Falcon-Husqvarna
445
29
HighRoad-TomTom
441
Individual
Not for the first time this season, a rider has come extremely close to the lead of Rein Taaramae, without quite managing to topple the Estonian. Kim Kirchen's Naranco win puts him into 2nd, just 2 points down!
Other recent climbers are Tolleson to 10th, Van Heerden to 12th, Eisel to 14th and Ignatiev to 24th.
