After the team's quietest ever off-season there is only a few changes to report in the overall squad, with no new permanent riders added, one training camp, one rider returning from loan three departures, four incoming loanees and two stagiaires. Time will tell whether the progression of our riders and changes in planning will be enough to improve on last year's rather disappointing rankings position.
Expect further squad discussion and rider previews in the coming weeks, for now this is just a formal presentation rather than analysis.
Some stats about the squad:
- 2/3 of the full-time riders are from our focus regions
- The average age is 26.3
- Over 1/2 of the riders in the squad are still developing
- 12/15 of our permanent riders were developed at Xero (at least in part for Bennett and van Niekerk), while one more was signed at max in his neo-pro year
- Thomas Pidcock is the only rider in the DB with an OVL above 75.8 to have no main stats above 75 - his OVL is 78.05
- Nils Schomber is the lowest OVL rider in the DB with a stat over 80 - including stats like fighter and downhill
- Of all climbers with 81+ mountain in the world, Xero are proud to have the two that are the worst time-triallists
You have an awesome team with a great deal of thought put into its sustainability throuhgout the years. Bennett and (now, especially) Areruya will definitely continue to be spicy riders. It just lacks a bit of versatiliy, otherwise you could be in for larger goals! But on the other hand you have Mr versatility himself. Looking forward to see what Pidcock is capable of this season (or am I?).
On paper it should be hard for Areruyra to have a stronger year than last year but the training makes him incredibly scary and is my pick to win the individual standings. The real question here is whether or not Bennett and a declined Houle can replicate his strong 2022 season in his final year at max.
There is a lot of x factor in Houle still, even on his first decline as well as Pidcock riding his first season in your colours, who knows how many points he can dish out before being maxed?
As always the talent pipeline looks good, even if you didn't really bring in a ton of talents on a permanent basis this year!
Hoping that you promote this year because, with another pay increase on Areruyra due to training as well as Pidcock maxing your cap space will become a massive premium next season if you're in the PCT!
I'm curious to see what Pidcock accomplished. Hoping the best for you as I love the jack fo all trades rider in theory. But the questions remains which races he's going to actual score in worth his salary. As of now there are only a couple of races on the calendar that look keen to reward his level of versatiltiy. You'll have to hope the game understands him to be the perfect breakaway rider he is, and I don't trust PCM for much.
Areruya has become something else, that's for sure. Mind sharing PTHC and wildcard calendar so I can adjust accordingly before the deadline?
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
It feels like a similar team to last year. Areruya is better with training, Pidcock and Fouche are developed further and Bennett should still be very good. But on the other hand Stannard and Habtemichael are gone and Houle has declined.
The balance of the squad between top end leaders and depth still seems a bit off. I can expect this team to be in the promotion hunt, but won't be surprised if they fall a bit short like last year.
I'm with bbl in that I'm incredibly curious to see how Pidcock does this year and how you're shaping his schedule. I hope he's gonna work out, it's a great test case. You're obviously very thing for sprints and cobbles, but I think you should at least be in promotion contention, even if maybe not a favorite. Rooting for you as always!
@Gustav - Thank you very much! A lot of damage to the plan for various reasons (some my fault) but glad some evidence of my planning for sustainability as you called it still shines through despite the many names that aren't there. Definitely lacking the full versatility I think we were known for in that first PCT stint and I do miss it - I know it'll never be the same so long as there's a big wage eater like Areruya but I definitely would like to move away from the pretty strict MO/HI focus we've found ourselves in the last couple of seasons. Definitely looking forward to seeing what Pidcock can do - have seen him do so well for other teams in his first two years and now he's finally with us!
@whitejersey - I think even without training Areruya could have improved on last year - doesn't mean it's definitely going to happen but he had some subpar results in 2022 and no real overachievement. I think he should be able to become our first ever individual standings winner and that would be awesome, but I care far more about the team result really.
No shock to say Bennett isn't defending his ToA crown so a lot of interest from em as well about how he compares - obviously ToA isn't necessarily the maximal use of RDs so he could way outdo it with a great year, or if he's not so good could fail to meet it. Houle is a mystery and with Pidcock the key to our season I think as I feel I know what to expect from the top two. If Houle is treated the same by the AI just slightly weaker (and behind Demare) maybe he just loses 100 points - if he's not treated as a leader in the same way for the same races he could lose over half his points easily.
And yeah, I too hope I promote
@bbl - I have no clue what to expect from Pidcock and I don't think I can really plan a great calendar to maximise him for what he is when he has the same RDs as Bennett Would love to be proven wrong and him be a Top 20 rider in the division though as his OVL suggests he must be. As you say I only have two (possibly three) races down as Pidcock leadership, and the rest he's joining others and/or stage hunting, which you're right in saying will depend a lot on PCM as he clearly has the tools to be really great at that.
And I'm sure you can't have too much to worry about given we only have Band 2 together. Wildcards... we'll see
@redordead - Agree with your assessment almost completely. To be simplistic I see the changes as: Habtemichael for Fouche, Stannard for Kipkemboi, Houle declining for Areruya training, adding in Pidcock who will have to be the X-factor when you put it like that. I expect the first two changes to be minor positive gains and the Houle/Areruya changes to be a net negative (that training is far more about 2024 onwards when Bennett begins to decline).
And yes you are right about the depth/top end balance - was the issue for us last season and I had no choice really but to double down and hope Pidcock (plus better overall planning and hopefully the small gains I mentioned earlier) is a final piece to make the "few big individual scorers" approach work, but as you say I won't be surprised if it doesn't.
@cunego - Yeah it's an interesting job doing his calendar. It was funny (and frustrating since I doubt he'll merit his OVL and lack of RDs) - I didn't do Pidcock's full calendar during race selections like I do for my other top riders, so when filling in the leaders in the race planner I originally had a small number of RDs down for him. When I changed from "Pidcock leadership races" to "races Pidcock would be fun in" and filled all those in I went from way under to way over his RD limit
I haven't studied the division too deeply, but on a first look through and a quick rankings guess I think "in promotion contention, even if maybe not a favorite" is pretty dead on what I have for us as well. I'm more hopeful than I was at the start of last year though (and I was pretty dead on with us being in a scrum around 10th), and think even if we haven't improved, the promotion fight looks a fair bit weaker. Could say the same about you, to be honest
The team are pleased to announce their full schedule for the 2023 season. Goals and individual rider schedule presentations will come at a later date. This season sees the by now customary Xero backloading and scrapping for points in the last few months which last year worked very well with a huge rankings jump, lead by the wins in the Tour of America and Euskal Bizikleta. No two-month droughts with only one race like happened twice last year, the worst being four weeks from Le Samyn until the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. Notable absence of the Volta a Portugal, the team have rode every edition since they first could back in 2018 but have gone in a different direction bands-wise.
Along with the Xero squad presentation, the team also used the press event to announce their five official goals for the 2023 season. The team have a bad record historically of achieving race or standings goals, this year they have solid hopes for most of them and would be bitterly disappointed to not at least get close to all of them. Once again they went for the maximum cost but tried to work it in a more achievable way after going 1/5 last year.
Top 5 Team Standings
Last year the team rather facetiously aimed to win the team standings, this year they reduce the goal to Top 5 and are dead serious about it even if they aren't hot favourites for it. The team needs to promote back to the PT for their long-term hopes of keeping the growing squad together, and that being part of achieving a goal would be great for any hopes of adding to it next year.
Win Tour de Pologne
The first goal which stays exactly the same is the only one which was achieved in 2022, as Joseph Areruya won the GC in Poland along with 2 stage wins and the points jersey. Pretty simple to say that with the route the same and Areruya only improving over the off-season we want him to do it again.
Win Criterium du Dauphine Libere
A returning race with a new goal, last year George Bennett looked strong and took a stage win but thanks to a flat ITT could only take 8th on GC, just missing out on our Top 5 goal. This season the influence of the hilly stages looks to be higher and more importantly the ITT has been swapped for a prologue, and so the team are hopeful of challenging for at least the grace positions after first for this goal.
Win Balkans International
The other repeating goal, Joseph Areruya disappointed for most of the race last year but dominated the final stage taking victory and jumping from the Top 10 battle up to 4th place. We liked what we saw there and though as long as Miguel Angel Lopez is around we probably won't be achieving this goal, if Areruya can take steps onto the podium we'll be ok with just missing it.
Top 5 Japan Cup
Closely edging out "Win Benelux Challenge" in our OR decision is Areruya's first PTHC hilly classic. Some big names are in the band so it will be a tough ask but we know how good our guy can be and are hopeful he'll secure this one.
Not surprised with the ambitious goals given how Areruya looks now. We also have a couple of goals in common but expect to be fighting for the win in either of them, and thereby challenging you. Hoping to see you achieve them all
I think I can be pretty content to not have made hills one of my primary priorities this year
Areruya is just a beast, and he could well become MAL's successor once the latter declines. With JA being superior on the longer climbs already, I'm really looking forward to see how the duel pans out in Balkans this year - while hoping to get some minor points as well
Japan and Poland are definitely realistic (although I have some doubts about MGUCI if Areruya really has already won in Poland 2023), whereas winning Dauphiné will be challenging for Bennett.
With some really, really strong leaders, the promotion goal is obvious - the question will once more be if the depth scoring is good enough. Pidcock's results could be decisive; if he does justice to that really high OVL, you could go up; otherwise it's gonna be a tough job for Fouche, Houle and the others.
@Abhishek - Yeah the first time in team history we really know we have a top star to do top star goals with which is really nice and hopefully we start to turn our fortunes around in terms of goal success. Always looking forward to fighting with your guys on the road Thanks
@Fabianski - And I'm glad you didn't as I'd hate to see another team with depth challenging Areruya who doesn't have as much quality support - just Kipkemboi/Fouche and a lot of 70-73 guys. Not sure MAL's successor is the way forward for Areruya but who knows. Me and knockout have debated how much of a hybrid race Balkans is and unsurprisingly if you know us we both think it favours the other way
Yeah Pidcock and Houle are the keys for the season I think as I said in my last replying post. Think I know what to expect from the climbing trio. And thanks for pointing out my mistake - I'm copying and pasting all the formatting from 2022 and I think I went a little overboard changing the years
AbhishekLFC wrote:
We also have a couple of goals in common but DON'T expect to be fighting for the win in either of them, and thereby challenging you.
A couple of days before the Xero squad presentation, men and women in Octagon or team polo shirts usher skinny young men with muscly legs into an electrically colourful room, a few at a time. Some look bemused by the whole act, a couple look nervous, some are mucking around and some are already cheerfully chatting with our cameraman. The format doesn't change, the background remains the same, the team design, back for another year because it works. It is the team's signature navy blue with streaks of red, white, light blue, and gren, just as with their jerseys. The props are there - the bikes, the bouncy balls, the deck of cards, the team caps. This isn't the madhouse it might look like, but it isn't your average team photoshoot either - Octagon always do their best to showcase the fun, likeable side of the team. This year the team has done their leaders presentation in multiple parts - first up is James Fouche!
James Fouche 25 | Maxed | 140,000 | Xero since 2019
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Signed for just €60,000 back in 2019, it's been a long four (as he was signed a year early at 21) years of grinding his way to peak powers for James Fouche - three with the team and 2020 spent at NENT Racing (now Lampre-Pinarello). That loan year, of course, meant he was not part of Xero's beloved promotion class - a fact of which he is well aware.
"Yeah obviously it was great seeing those guys get the job done and have that season and I was pumped that it meant I'd be racing in the Pro Tour when I got back - but at the same time I did wish I was more a part of it. All the guys who were there before like George, Hugo, Joseph, Jams, Morne all want to do it again more than anything but yeah, I think for me personally I do have that extra bit of hunger or reason to want to experience that." he says, and you can see the fight in his eyes. Unlike names such as Areruya or Higuita - high-wage wonderkids who delivered on those wages even in their developing years - Fouche has never been an individual standout - just seven breakaways in three years, hardly any points scored. Even the most diehard Xero fans would struggle to name an individual ride - but they would be able to tell you the great work he has done in service of his leaders.
"I think it's fair to say I haven't done everything I wanted individually but I know my role has been restricted to being a helper because that was what was best for the team and for me as a rider. I feel happy with that and I think it's helped me into a better helper and hopefully made me ready to lead a team as well. I've learned so much from George and Joseph and I hope I can make an impact for the team."
So how much leading will he be doing? Let's take a look at his schedule for the year.
25/1-27/1
Hong Kong Challenge
C1
5/3-10/3
Vuelta al Pais Vasco
C1
11/3-16/3
Vuelta a Colombia
PTHC
3/4-23/4
Giro d'Italia
GTM
3/5-8/5
Tour de Romandie
C1
5/6-8/6
Tour of East Java
PTHC
14/6-20/6
Criterium du Dauphine Libere
PTHC
22/6-28/6
Tour of California
HC
9/7-11/7
Tour of Eritrea
C1
1/10-6/10
Tour of Japan
HC
Three races, we are told, are purely the James Fouche show - the Hong Kong Challenge, the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, and the Tour of California - hardly races that are tailor-made for his skillset, but when you share a passion for punchy climbing with your team leaders, and those leaders are such names as George Bennett and Joseph Areruya, sometimes you might have to put your superdomestique cap on - something the team expect Fouche to be able to do very well indeed, trusting him with being the duo's right-hand man at many of the biggest races of the year.
However, much like Daniel Habtemichael last year, while racing alongside those leaders the 25-year-old Fouche said he's been encouraged to stay aware of his position in the U25 rankings. Thanks to how the PTHC bands have worked out he should never have to face more than one of the McNulty-Pogacar-Almeida trio at a time, and will also get a few races as the favourite without any of their presence, and so as well as his minor GC scoring the team are also hopeful for some points from U25 classifications as well.
It's not a make-or-break season for James Fouche, given how much of it is still spent in service of others, but it is one Xero fans, staff and most importantly the man himself have been looking forward to for quite some time now. He is clearly absolutely bursting with excitement to get to work, and we are equally looking forward to watching.
Will indeed be interesting to see in how many of these races James will have a realistic chance to get white; maybe his best shot would be in Eritrea, but he won't be leading there. In Hong Kong and California, there'll be no way past McNulty I'm afraid. Pais Vasco might be too TT-heavy (including a TTT), similar for Romandie with the TTT possibly favoring riders from other teams. East Java and Dauphiné will have PT competition - maybe Japan could be a good race for him as well, though. But - in my opinion - likely not any of those where he's going to lead the team...
But he should be in for some solid results for sure, really like his versatility with good Mo/Hi, solid TT and strong acceleration. Maybe a race like Badaling could have been good for him, too - but I guess I'm not the one to critizise some experienced manager's planning
I've been burned lots of times thinking Beltran did great here before let me pick that goal. Areruya is better of course and hopefully should do better in that regard
@Fabianski - Yeah the leadership races weren’t picked for being his best shot at white but just what fit best with Bennett and Areruya. If he was leading all these races I’d pencil in Japan and Eritrea as being a favourite and maybe be cautiously hopeful about Romandie? Habtemichael was variably good when chasing white while also being a superdomestique so I’m hopeful Fouche can still grab those two at the very least during this season.
The bands and McNulty heading to America suit us well as I don’t expect more than one rider better than him at any race unless Ardila and Almeida double up for some reason in Colombia or East Java (or the Giro, for that matter). We only have Pogacar in Band 3, and only McNulty in the PCT which we’ve already seen only has California and Hong Kong.
If he got 2nd in every U25 competition during the season it’s 70 points - not huge stuff but not insignificant I guess.
And yeah, he’s a rider I like a lot who is maybe more a PT guy where he can chase GT KoMs and stage wins like Dion Smith, or at least a guy for a team with only one climbing leader. Think he’ll give us some great moments over the years as a free role even if it isn’t his best calendar this season.
@redordead - Definitely get that but when the leadership hasn't changed "this leader has done well here let's set that as a goal" makes a lot more sense than "this leader hasn't done well here let's set that as a goal" Certainly hope Areruya can maintain his season-to-season success better than Beltran (indeed I hope last year was even a slight below par year to an extent) but I guess as you well know it's impossible to fully know how each new PCM will behave - and I'm never one to count my chickens too early anyway
A couple of days before the Xero squad presentation, men and women in Octagon or team polo shirts usher skinny young men with muscly legs into an electrically colourful room, a few at a time. Some look bemused by the whole act, a couple look nervous, some are mucking around and some are already cheerfully chatting with our cameraman. The format doesn't change, the background remains the same, the team design, back for another year because it works. It is the team's signature navy blue with streaks of red, white, light blue, and gren, just as with their jerseys. The props are there - the bikes, the bouncy balls, the deck of cards, the team caps. This isn't the madhouse it might look like, but it isn't your average team photoshoot either - Octagon always do their best to showcase the fun, likeable side of the team. This year the team has done their leaders presentation in multiple parts - next up is Thomas Pidcock!
Thomas Pidcock 24 | 4.86XP | 330,000 | Xero since 2021
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It's been a long two years of waiting on Xero's previously €600,000 man to actually join the team. A world champion on mountain bike and in cyclocross, Pidcock has shown flashes of prodigious skill in his first two seasons on the road (with Project: Africa in the 2021 PCT, and cycleYorkshire in the 2022 PT), with a few highlights including 2nd in a stage of Le Tour de France and 13th in the GC of the Tour of Northern Europe. However, his consistency across all manner of races has been what has really stood out, leading him to great rankings finishes of 131st in 2021 and 155th in 2022 - very impressive for a rider in his first two pro seasons.
However now that the team is fronting his entire paycheck while trying to be in the promotion battle, there is a certain feeling of expectation of something more. Not that people people expect a still-developing rider to suddenly be a Top 30 rider in the standings, just... well, he is getting paid like one. It's hard to imagine a jack-of-all trades type justifying that wage, and if Xero end up one more leader away from promotion at season's end the first question asked could well be if it was worth spending a leader's wage on a baroudeur - one who is only down to officially lead or co-lead in 14 race days, and will only ride a further 25.
25/1-27/1
Hong Kong Challenge
C1
4/2
Viana do Castelo
C1
5/3-10/3
Vuelta al Pais Vasco
C1
3/4-23/4
Giro d'Italia
GTM
28/4
Lisbon Classic
HC
22/6-28/6
Tour of California
HC
13/7-18/7
Benelux Challenge
HC
8/9-13/9
Balkans International
PTHC
1/10-6/10
Tour of Japan
HC
A varied calendar for the 24-year-old, with early leadership opportunities in Viana do Castelo and the Vuelta al Pais Vasco (as part of a trident attack). A free role for his third Grand Tour at the Giro d'Italia before returning to PCT action with a flat classic and a chance to stage hunt in the Tour of California. His season finishes with mixed free and domestique roles in major season targets for Areruya and Bennett - however the Tour of Japan's stages 2 and 3 will surely have big red circles around their dates on Pidcock's calendar.
"Yeah there's a lot of days I'm looking forward to and I'm grateful to the team that they'll let me chase them." I ask for any in particular. "Maybe I shouldn't say just yet. Keep it a surprise!" he laughs. "And obviously in a lot of those races I'm doing domestique work as well which I'm looking forward to. I have a lot to learn from Hugo, George and Joseph and I'm glad I get a chance to ride for all of them this year." he adds quickly
The centrepiece of his season though, is undoubtedly the Benelux Challenge, where he will enter as, if not a favourite, a rider who will have a lot of eyes on him. The phrase "a rider who can Top 15 anything and win the Tour of Northern Europe/Benelux Challenge" is becoming something of a cliché when it comes to analysis of what Thomas Pidcock can be, and he has a first chance to prove the latter part right in July.
"I'm really looking forward to leading the team in Viana and Benelux. It's a real show of support from the team and I know what trust they've put in me to get results there. I think they both suit my skillset so I'm pretty hopeful I can repay that faith." he says. Indeed, although Pidcock should rarely see a race day without the possibility of contribution, these are the races where he will be looking to repay more than just faith - also the bulk of those three-hundred-and-twenty thousand euros they're so generously giving to him.
Well, if you really, really want to get rid of his wage, I'm sure some folks will love bidding for him next year
As you say, he can contribute pretty much on any kind of stage, except for purely flat TTs maybe, and I'm sure he'll be a fun rider to watch. The OVL needs to be looked at, though, as I don't see why a rider who can be solid everywhere but isn't a top contender anywhere should be that high - up to him to prove he actually deserves that number, and the wage coming with high OVL
Would love to be proven wrong and him be a Top 20 rider in the division though as his OVL suggests he must be. As you say I only have two (possibly three) races down as Pidcock leadership, and the rest he's joining others and/or stage hunting, which you're right in saying will depend a lot on PCM as he clearly has the tools to be really great at that.
Down Under Classic
Hong Kong Challenge
Viana do Castelo
Vuelta al Pais Vasco
Strade Bianche
GP Izola
Lillestrom GP
Tour de Pologne
Badaling International
Tour of Lithuania
Hanko Classic
Pro Hallstatt Classic
Tour of California
Torshavn GP
Arab Tour
Tour of Eritrea
Betonexpressz GP
Tour d'Andorra
Tour du Maroc
Ras Taillteann
Balkans International
Rheden GP
GP Lugano
Tour of Japan
