Yeah, don't get me wrong, I like him and I see some progression as well, but I wouldn't put him in the second tier of favourites, ahead of guys like Henao, Purito and Martin.
Not because he wouldn't outsprint them on the flat of course, I just don't quite see him getting to the top of the Cauberg in the same group.
He's absolutely free to prove me terribly wrong though.
My scenario: Kwiatkowski went too early after Sanchez last year, this year lesson learnt, follows Phil's attack up the Philberg and beats him in 1vs1 sprint.
Kirchen_75 wrote:
My scenario: Kwiatkowski went too early after Sanchez last year, this year lesson learnt, follows Phil's attack up the Philberg and beats him in 1vs1 sprint.
Until Dan Martins comes crashing in and ruins Kwiats chances of winning and a wild Valverde appears and snatches the victory
Kirchen_75 wrote:
My scenario: Kwiatkowski went too early after Sanchez last year, this year lesson learnt, follows Phil's attack up the Philberg and beats him in 1vs1 sprint.
Until Dan Martins comes crashing in and ruins Kwiats chances of winning and a wild Valverde appears and snatches the victory
But at the last moments makes an unexplainable tactical error and stops riding. Costa wins, Valverde is happy with his podium.
In the last couple of years, Amstel has been decided in it's most famous climb: the Cauberg. The Cauberg is a 1.2km climb, with a average gradient of 5.8%, and a maximum of 12%. It's a baby compared to what the riders will face in Fleche, but it's a very though climb. And bar 2013, when Roman won, since 2010 the race has been decided there. And bar 2013 and 2012, Gilbert has won every time here at Amstel. But since 2012, the race doesn't finish at the top of Cauberg, but instead, has a 1.8 flat road up until the finish line after the last of the passes through the Cauberg comes. Even though in the two editions a mass sprint didn't occur, it's a high possibility it happens, especially if no one can get away. Throughout the course, the riders will climb 33 hills, with a double pass through the Cauberg, and the also very difficult Geulhemmerberg, which is 970m long with a average gradient of of 7.9%, and the Bemerlerberg, which is 900m long, with a average gradient of 7%. After passing the Bemerlerberg, the riders will enter the final pass through the Cauberg. So, who will come out on top?
Startlist
Startlist Analysis
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Philippe Gilbert
The "King of Cauberg" comes back again. Can he conquer his kingdom again?
When you think of Amstel Gold Race, one name imediatelly comes up to mind: Philippe Gilbert. The belgian has, since 2010, only failed to win in 2012 and 2013. In 2012, he finished 6th (he won there in the World Champioships) and in 2013 finished 5th, before returning to winning ways last year, with a great tactical play by BMC, and then a super attack by Gilbert. He's the main favorite once again, even though he "only" finished 3rd in Brabantse. Can he pull another win here? He's my bet to win.
Michael Matthews
Last year, he finished 2nd in Brabantse, and this year, he did it again. He's in shape, can he top it off?
In my opinion, Matthews is that sprinter who can beat Sagan into the green jersey at the Tour. He climbs better than Sagan (come at me Sagan fanboys ), and sprints a bit worst than Sagan. And, if he can follow Gilbert's wheel in Cauberg, he's the prime candidate to win Amstel. He's a top tier candidate, and he'll try everything to win it. And with the help of Gerrans and Albasini, Orica have a top team to help him. It's all there for him.
Alejandro Valverde
Valverde seems in great shape, but he's big goal is Fleche
This is the only classic of the Ardennes that Alejandro hasn't won, and he wants to win it. And, to be fair, only Purito and Gilbert can be as strong as this man on the hills. Martin might be a better rider overall, but in terms of explosion, Piti is one of the best. Cauberg fits perfectly to him (even though he prefers a bit more harder climbs), and he will be there to challenge Gilbert.
Outsiders
Michal Kwiatkowski Diego Ulissi Jelle Vanendert Simon Gerrans Tom Dumoulin Joaquim Rodriguez Sergio Henao Roman Kreuziger Julian Arredondo Enrico Gasparotto
2014:
1 Philippe Gilbert BMC Racing Team 6:25:57
2 Jelle Vanendert Lotto Belisol 0:00:05
3 Simon Gerrans Orica Greenedge 0:00:06
4 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team
5 Michal Kwiatkowski Omega Pharma - Quick-Step Cycling Team
6 Simon Geschke Team Giant-Shimano 0:00:10
7 Bauke Mollema Belkin Pro Cycling Team
8 Enrico Gasparotto Astana Pro Team
9 Daniel Moreno Fernandez Team Katusha
10 Yukiya Arashiro Team Europcar 0:00:12
Previous Winners:
2014 Gilbert Philippe
2013 Kreuziger Roman
2012 Gasparotto Enrico
2011 Gilbert Philippe
2010 Gilbert Philippe
2009 Ivanov Serguei
2008 Cunego Damiano
...
1966 Stablinski Jean
Martin might be a better rider overall, but in terms of explosion, Piti is one of the best.
Daniel Martin a better rider overall than Valverde, really?
Great preview from both of you guys. What a service we get here!
I should have used another for it rather than overall, but I couldn't remember it.
What I was trying to say was that, for races like Amstel and Fleche, where explosion matters the most, Gilbert and Valverde are better, but in a race like Liege or Lombardia, Martin is a better rider (even though that's debatable ).
Rather disappointed I couldn't go with Gallopin in the AGR Bet (except for Another Rider). So, instead I'll be cheering for Dumoulin I guess? Don't think Purito will have much of chance here anywayz. La Doyenne has to be his goal.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Dunno if it was mentioned already somewhere (if so, Casper to AG2R), Flèche will get more unpredictable because of the integration of the Côte de Cherave (1.3k, 8.1%) only 6km before the finish.
Kirchen_75 wrote:
My scenario: Kwiatkowski went too early after Sanchez last year, this year lesson learnt, follows Phil's attack up the Philberg and beats him in 1vs1 sprint.
Until Dan Martins comes crashing in and ruins Kwiats chances of winning and a wild Valverde appears and snatches the victory
But at the last moments makes an unexplainable tactical error and stops riding. Costa wins, Valverde is happy with his podium.
Until it's revealed Gerrans and Mathews have been on Costa's wheel the whole way up the Cauberg and they do a one-two.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
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cio93 wrote:
Dunno if it was mentioned already somewhere (if so, Casper to AG2R), Flèche will get more unpredictable because of the integration of the Côte de Cherave (1.3k, 8.1%) only 6km before the finish.
Never thought I'd see those two words in the same sentence before
I really think Lotto will take the race today, supporting an Australian too, but I don't know how exciting the race will be that way with Gerrans and Mathews both for the sprint. Valverde is my (somewhat obvious) pick to podium as well and Gilbert will be on the attack.
Uh, came home and it's still 70 kilometers. Okay, I thought they be close to the finish by now. Seems like always underestimate the length of the two smaller Ardennes races. Edited by Shonak on 19-04-2015 14:08
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Shonak wrote:
Uh, came home and it's still 70 kilometers. Okay, I thought they be close to the finish by now. Seems like always underestimate the length of the two smaller Ardennes races.
Since when do classics, or any major race for that matter, end significantly before 16:30?
Philippe Gilbert
Michael Matthews
Alejandro Valverde
Michal Kwiatkowski
Diego Ulissi
Tom Dumoulin
Sergio Henao
Roman Kreuziger
Simon Geschke Team Giant-Shimano 0:00:10 
Yukiya Arashiro Team Europcar 0:00:12
Ivanov Serguei
Stablinski Jean
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
