I could imagine Porte is the favourite on different betting sites, yeah, but not by much I would think. But I think Van Garderen will win, just a gut feeling. And yeah, its definetely his best shot, no doubt taking his form, the route and the top tier riders going to T-A.
Movistar has their shot with Fernandez, Ion Izaguirre and Gorka Iza. I would say a top-10 (possibly, best case scenario 2) and a stage win would be a succes here. Im looking forward to see Fernandez on a 'real' mountain stage in a race like Paris - Nice. And Aru will possibly only use the race as training, with a possibility of a good result on one of the two mountain-stages.
I dont bother about Betancur and his lazy ass anymore really, but he IS scheduled to race T-A, Catalunya, Vasco AND Romandie before the Giro. I dont even know what is going on with him anymore. And I dont have any faith in Slagter, this route is much more suited to quote on quote real GC-contenders than types like him
Quintana is doing Tour of Romandie since he skipped Andalucia due to a minor injury/crash. He will do E3 and Dwaars as well to prepare, same goes for Fleche Wallone.
In other news, Betancur betancured himself once again and now wants to ride the Tour instead of the Giro. His excuse is the ITT and a lot races leading up to the Giro (he is expected to do the full schedule - T-A, Catalunya, Vasco, ardennes and Romandie).
well, uh.. I guess he kinda has a point. He's stil out of racing shape and needs the kilometers, especially in racing. So it gives him more time to get in shape and all, but he'd also have to ride for Peraud and Bardet for sure in France. At the Giro he could have just done whatever he wanted to next to Pozzovivo.
Edited by Shonak on 04-03-2015 22:37
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Was just looking at some odds for different races when it stroke me how many GC-contenders who actually participated in this years TdF. I know all of them probably wont be at the starting line come July, but just look at this:
On top of those, Porte, Aru and Urán will also come over from the Giro. My question is, due to the amount of great riders, shouldnt some of those riders (and some that I even havent mentioned yet) consider doing the Giro-Vuelta double instead like Pozzovivo, Betancur, Jurgen VdB, König etc?
Some of those riders could be the following who I have a hard time imagining ending higher than 8-10 overall at best: Dan Martin, Talansky (one of them), Fuglsang, Tejay (due to the route in TdF), Navarro, Frank and Schleck. Could also mention Kelderman, Mollema here, but Kelder did it last year and Trek got Mollema specifically for a top-10 in TdF.
Riis123 wrote:
Was just looking at some odds for different races when it stroke me how many GC-contenders who actually participated in this years TdF. I know all of them probably wont be at the starting line come July, but just look at this:
On top of those, Porte, Aru and Urán will also come over from the Giro. My question is, due to the amount of great riders, shouldnt some of those riders (and some that I even havent mentioned yet) consider doing the Giro-Vuelta double instead like Pozzovivo, Betancur, Jurgen VdB, König etc?
Some of those riders could be the following who I have a hard time imagining ending higher than 8-10 overall at best: Dan Martin, Talansky (one of them), Fuglsang, Tejay (due to the route in TdF), Navarro, Frank and Schleck. Could also mention Kelderman, Mollema here, but Kelder did it last year and Trek got Mollema specifically for a top-10 in TdF.
It is the TDF though, and thus you have to go if you get either leadership or a free role if you are a big name. Considering the American guys, it is the only race anyone in our country that doesnt follow cycling follows and so a top 10 in the TDF is bigger than a win in the Vuelta in all honesty.
Movistar wrote:
it is the only race anyone in our country that doesnt follow cycling follows and so a top 10 in the TDF is bigger than a win in the Vuelta in all honesty.
Whaaat
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Well, I dno, I still think they would take a Vuelta win over a top-10, but obviously cycling is very much about promoting your sponsor and being at the Tour, that probably gives you the most. But I just wondered since basically EVERYONE (at least the best 10 GC-riders in the wolrd) this year has scheduled to race the Tour. It could open something up in other races as you more or less has to pray for bad prep and crashes among the favourties if you are the likes of Peraud (I know, he is french and got 2nd last year, obviously he has to go), Talansky, Martin, Fuglsang, Kelderman etc.
One of my fav stage races of the season, the Pais Vasco, is soon to kick off. Unfortunately tho not too many of the big name GC-contender will take part and only one of the 'big 4'. Of those, the following will start: Majka, Rodriguez, Quintana, Tejay, Peraud, Kwiatek, Pinot, Costa, Talansky and Mollema. Other notable to keep and eye on should be Atapuma, Intxausti, Nieve, Dumoulin, Yates, Chaves and Spilak. Fatancur also participates and the goal here should be to finish in the top-100.
Quintana should be pretty set to win this race after his display in T-A on a route that suits him well with a VERY strong team backing him up in this type of terrain. Kwiatkowski is probably his biggest rival but he will probably lack a bit on the rough climbs like last year. I have a feeling Tejay will do very well here as well since he has been plagued by a bit of bad luck, but surely has looked great on the hard climbs so far in the season.
Edit: Its also confirmed now that Quintana will do FW and L-B-L as well as the Romandie due to him missing out on Andalucia prior to T-A due do racing kilometres.
Edited by Riis123 on 02-04-2015 18:41
Hopefully Quintana can replicate the success he had the last time he participated in this, probably a similar field strength and he does indeed have a very strong team to help him, so I see no reason why he couldn't.
Will be a big race for Purito. The climbs should suit him very well and the race should provide us with a good indicator of how strong he is this season, whether he still has it or whether age is catching up with him now. It was a little over a year ago that he was winning Catalunya and beating the 3 of the big 4 present, but that seems rather far away these days.
Riis123 wrote:
Edit: Its also confirmed now that Quintana will do FW and L-B-L as well as the Romandie due to him missing out on Andalucia prior to T-A due do racing kilometres.
Interesting, Ardennes didn't go particularly well last time for Nairo. He could be an excellent foil for Valverde, attacking before the final climb (wait no this is the Ardennes... let's be realistic), or possibly even sharing leadership duties.
He will probably lead Valverde out in FW as it really doesnt suit him that well I guess, but L-B-L is another race. Riders with similar strengths have won this race, so I honestly think they will share leadership there. It will be very interesting, especially because we rarely get to see them race together. Movistar has done an excellent job of basically seperating them for the sake of having a leader in everyone single major stage race. Will definetely be a dangerous 1-2 punch.
And the Romandie-stage will be yummy as well. I am a little worried if its indeed too much pressure this early in the season, but I guess there is anough time to recuperate and prepare for the Tour.
I really don't see Quintana doing anything in the Ardennes, but I'm here to be proven wrong. Purito was solid in T-A, surely his form will have improven since then. With the Ardennes coming close as a big season target, he should be close to his first peak and I hope he won't disappoint.
Naturally, I hope that the basques have chances at Pais Vasco. This means that I hope for at least one stage win by likes of Gorka, Ion and Benat. I wish Igor Anton was riding it and he'd finally get some opportunitiy to ride for his own results. To me, he's kinda stuck in limbo and he needs a free role to go after stage wins for himself. I never see him attacking anymore since he's with Movistar, which is a real shame cuz Igor usually was the rider who threw the first punch going into the final mountain.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Shonak wrote:
I really don't see Quintana doing anything in the Ardennes, but I'm here to be proven wrong.
No chance in FW, but he could be vital for Valverde in LBL. I think the climbs are long enough for him. You don't necessarily need that much of a punch in LBL. Heck, Basso has been on the podium and Hamilton has won it.
Shonak wrote:
I wish Igor Anton was riding it and he'd finally get some opportunitiy to ride for his own results. To me, he's kinda stuck in limbo and he needs a free role to go after stage wins for himself. I never see him attacking anymore since he's with Movistar, which is a real shame cuz Igor usually was the rider who threw the first punch going into the final mountain.
I agree. Stage 14 of the 2010 Vuelta, when he crashed out, was one of the darkest days in cycling for me. I so wish he would've won that Vuelta. Anton hasn't shone very often, but when he has, he's been absolutely amazing.
Gotta agree with Squire on the first one. Andy even stated were he would attack in 2009 and destroyed everyone. You can argue that the race over the past couple of years have been rode much more conservatively and even though its kinda unlikely he will win, he might play the Rodriguez to Valverde like back in the days. If you have enough stamina and can climb, you got a ticket to the final.
On Antón: Over the past couple of years, he really hasnt been climbing that well. Movistar got him en hopes of he could be the guy with Quintana/Valverde on the last mountain, but he never even came close to be that guy in 2014 which is unfortunate. It might be the Roche-syndrome (somehow he is way better when he is given the opportunity to lead/given green lights), but I doubt that. To me it just looks like he is past his prime. Antón can only surprise me positively this year. He hasnt earned to be allowed to go for stage win in a race like Pais Vasco with Quintanas ambitions I would think, but he should be plenty of opportunity in the Giro d' Italia without a clearcut leader.
It hurts to say what I just said as he and Samu were my favourite riders when Valverde was banned. He showed he was back at Zoncolan the next year, but faded and he never really seemed to be the same as that dominant rider in 2010. I wonder if something happened mentally or whatever
Edited by Riis123 on 03-04-2015 03:46
Movistar wrote:
it is the only race anyone in our country that doesnt follow cycling follows and so a top 10 in the TDF is bigger than a win in the Vuelta in all honesty.
Movistar wrote:
it is the only race anyone in our country that doesnt follow cycling follows and so a top 10 in the TDF is bigger than a win in the Vuelta in all honesty.
Whaaat
Unless you are Spanish, 100%.
Are you trolling ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Yeah, I think it's down to the Roche-Syndrom as well. He's clearly not a proper domestique since at Euskaltel he never really had to ride as one and hasn't learned this "craft". It's good that Movistar have kept him in the business after Euskaltel's folding but for his attitude & career, Movistar isn't really the right thing. Because even guys like Ion or Benat are top of him in the packing order, which they deserve actually. I hope when the contract runs out, he finds some proper small team. Not Caja Rural because they pretty much suck at training their riders, but maybe IAM or something similiar. A team without real mountain leaders, where he just can go do crazy stuff like Zoncolan .
Stage 14 is a total downer. Always makes me sad to think of what could have been for Euskaltel & Igor Anton in that shape. Edited by Shonak on 03-04-2015 07:58
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Rui Costa will do ardennes, Romandie and.... Criterium Dauphine (!) before the Tour this year. I was just like wtf.
Also the route profiles have been published for Romandie with an indredible lineup. Stage 5 will be some good tv with Nibali, Froome, Quintana, Bardet, Pinot etc. attending
Holy shit, I just realized this.... every god damn GC-rider (almost) is scheduled to take part of the Tour de France. Out of the 4 favourites from the Giro, all of them will ride Le Tour - Aru and Porte in support of their respective captains, Contador and Urán still being the man to support. That probably leaves Pozzovivo as the best GC-rider in the world NOT participating in Tour de France. Pretty remarkable.
Thats just one helluva strong lineup and possibly the strongest and widest ever, at least that I can recall. Pretty insane how many good climbers there will be this year.
