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PCMdaily DB Stat Discussion
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| Dusen |
Posted on 03-09-2014 23:43
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Protected Rider
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admirschleck wrote:
Dusen wrote:
Well you don't win the Eneco tour without being able to do cobbles well Mr. Statistics
No point in trying to say something like that on a sarcastic way ("Mr. Sarcastic"  , while you're just not agreeing on one stat. That's just not how it should be done. Tank's system is really awesome, but there's something called reality and something that can't be expressed and showing with statistics, unfortunately.
Both of you have the point. His cobblestone results aren't good enough to have a decent COB stat, but PCM doesn't work that way. You have to be at least 65+ at cobbles to even be able to survive them in PCM, as we all know how strange cobbled stages are - waaay too many attacks from cobblestone guys, that nobody who has 56 COB could survive.
I'd personally give him something around 66-67. Perhaps one or two stats less or more, but it shouldn't go out of that range.
I am simply just tired of him not seing the flaws that there IS in his way of calculating, thats all.
75 cob is a bit over the edge, but i believe 68-69 maybe 70 cob is fair enough. 68-70 cob will make sure that you can't use him to win anything in the spring classics, but he will be able to hang on in a respectable manner.
Edited by Dusen on 03-09-2014 23:46
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| admirschleck |
Posted on 03-09-2014 23:52
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Team Leader
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He's just giving his opinion that's based on real-life results. I can't see why is that wrong. Of course, as I said, some real-life situations, things that happen during the race and aren't directly reflected to the results (which is the main source for his system) are big part of cycling and can never be shown in statistics. They should definitely be taken in consideration when discussing stats, but it's always nice to have a base. His system is based on real-life results and it's definitely a nice thing to start with.
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| Dusen |
Posted on 04-09-2014 00:00
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Protected Rider
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True. But it should only be an absolute "ground base" because there is so many variables that you can't account for this way. |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 04-09-2014 01:52
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Tour de France Champion
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I agree with admir on Wellens. 67 or so should be good.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| TankNL |
Posted on 04-09-2014 07:14
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Domestique
Posts: 440
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I could to 2 things in order to improve the assignment of the points for cobbles;
1. I could give points through the WT2.GC but then it also does the same for the Tour of Polland, which is the same categorie.
2. I could scale the points in the lower region's and count then times 1.5 in stead of 1.
For the first scenario you could argue, that a rider who is able to finish top10 in a stage race, should be able to ride cobbles, not be a cobble specialist, but atleast be able to get over them.
The second option will give riders who have no points in cobbles still a 50, but somebody who has some points will get to 70 faster... but then threre will be a lot of riders with a stat around 65 points
Will do some tests tonight. |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-09-2014 09:03
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World Champion
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Oh yeah, forgot about the cobbles stat. That is way off indeed. I'd up Acc and TT as well. But that doesn't take away that it is a good system, especialy for the more unknown riders.
TankNL, just out of curiosity, could you post a screenshot with the highest average riders as they come out of your system?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 04-09-2014 09:11
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
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70 for Wellens on the cobbles suits perfectly I think.
67 is really not enough to resist to attacks of guys that have 75 there. 70 is perfect.
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 04-09-2014 09:23
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Classics Specialist
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matt17br wrote:
70 for Wellens on the cobbles suits perfectly I think.
67 is really not enough to resist to attacks of guys that have 75 there. 70 is perfect.
I think it's too high considering his age , and that he got a lot of years to develop in. So 67 /68 should give him around 72 in a few years and that is fine to me 
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 04-09-2014 09:23
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3591
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matt17br wrote:
70 for Wellens on the cobbles suits perfectly I think.
67 is really not enough to resist to attacks of guys that have 75 there. 70 is perfect.
I think it's too high considering his age , and that he got a lot of years to develop in. So 67 /68 should give him around 72 in a few years and that is fine to me
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-09-2014 09:27
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World Champion
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No flemish rider should get under 70 cobbles 
70 sounds fine to me looking at his ride in Eneco Tour. TT 72ish after his second place in Belgian NC. Acc 74 or something.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 01:34
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| matt17br |
Posted on 04-09-2014 09:29
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sgdanny wrote:
matt17br wrote:
70 for Wellens on the cobbles suits perfectly I think.
67 is really not enough to resist to attacks of guys that have 75 there. 70 is perfect.
I think it's too high considering his age , and that he got a lot of years to develop in. So 67 /68 should give him around 72 in a few years and that is fine to me
68 is really too low to me. Maybe 69 could still suit, but 70 will make him more likely to win an Eneco Tour in career mode.
Edit: Completely agree with Ollfardh. Everyone except Van den Broeck 
Edited by matt17br on 04-09-2014 09:31
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| TankNL |
Posted on 04-09-2014 19:30
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Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
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Ollfardh wrote:
Oh yeah, forgot about the cobbles stat. That is way off indeed. I'd up Acc and TT as well. But that doesn't take away that it is a good system, especialy for the more unknown riders.
TankNL, just out of curiosity, could you post a screenshot with the highest average riders as they come out of your system?
I can do you 1 better; https://pcmdaily.c...ost_971238
in the post is a link to a .cdb file. based on the 1.2 patch of PCMDaily. You can check it out yourself. |
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| 547984 |
Posted on 05-09-2014 03:31
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5008
Joined: 29-01-2013
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baseballlover312 wrote:
I agree with admir on Wellens. 67 or so should be good.
admirschleck wrote:
Also, please, either call me Admir or admirschleck. It's just...annoying.
baseballlover312, 06-03-14 : "Nuke Moscow...Don't worry Russia, we've got plenty of love to go around your cities"
Sarah Palin, 08-03-14 (CPAC, on Russian aggression) : "The only thing that stops a bad guy with a nuke is a good guy with a nuke"
Big thanks to jdog for making this AMAZING userbar! |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 05-09-2014 19:21
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Bouhanni 72 on HILL!
Edited by matt17br on 06-09-2014 14:30
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 05-09-2014 20:50
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
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matt17br wrote:
Bouhanni 71 on HILL!
Yer I've noticed to my surprise just how well Bouhanni seems to do on hilly finishes to stages, seems to go up better than Matthews who often gets talked about as a sprinter that can sprint uphill. |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 05-09-2014 21:33
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World Champion
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I've seen him do similar stuff in Oman (I think), but attributed it to coincidence. He should get an update indeed.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 06-09-2014 09:18
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
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Ollfardh wrote:
I've seen him do similar stuff in Oman (I think), but attributed it to coincidence. He should get an update indeed.
And Route du Sud, too, he finished 3rd 6 seconds ahead of Valverde and with Herrada and other climbers/punchers.
Anyway, Navardauskas definitely deserves 76 or even 75 with a higher acc stat.
For me 76-76.
Open the spoiler!
Spoiler Petacchi -1 SP & ACC
Pelucchi +1 SP -1 ACC
Markus -1 SP -1 ACC
Dehaes -1 SP & ACC
Valverde (yeah, didn't have the same shape of a time in sprints) SO -1/2 SP
Grosu +2 SP & +3 ACC (really you must watch one of his sprints, he his PURE power)
Modolo +1 SP
Moreno Moser +3 SP (he is quite fast)
Geraint Thomas +1/2 SP
Vanmarcke -1 SP
Navardauskas -1 SP +2 ACC (76-76)
Boonen -1 SP
Vangenechten +1 SP
Bos +1/2 ACC, he is a beast in Acceleration.
Gaurdini +1 SP
Mclay +2 SP & ACC
Daniel Hoelgaard +1 SP
Van Staeyen +1 SP&ACC
Jans +1 SP & ACC
De Buyst overall upgrade (mainly focused on SP guy)
FL:69
SP:70
ACC:71
END:69
RES:68
REC:66
HIL:67
PO:5/6
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Horner -1 MO and backup stats downgrade
Fuglsang -1 MO
Kreuziger -1 MO
Betancur/Costa +1 MO (Costa more likely a "77.5", but with his backup stats then it could suit)
Van Garderen +1 MO with lower backup stats
Giampaolo Caruso +1 MO
Nieve +1 MO with low backup stats
Luis Mas from Caja Rural overall upgrade, like 71 MO etc..
Peraud -1 MO (This is a crucial stat, I think that Peraud did very good at the Tour, but it was his only podium in a GT... He is now the 6th best GT rider, I'd better put him on 79 with higher backup stats)
Miguel Angel Lopez +2/3 MO
Zoidl -1 MO
Anyway: Barguil too underrated +1 MO +1 HI
Sicard +3 MO +3 HI
Anacona +2 MO +2 HI
Serry +3 MO
Navarro +1 MO
Pardilla +1 MO
Gorka Izagirre +2 MO
Teunissen 68 MO (+8) +2 FL 68 TT (+6)
-3 MO & HI Vanotti, he isn' a climber at all, +4 FL for him.
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Nibali +1 DO (minor update)
Stybar +2 DO (minor update)
Martin +5-6 DO (minor update)
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Turgot -1 COB
Vincent Jerome -1 COB
Oss-Devolder-Bozic +1 COB
Gilbert -1/2 COB (only because he doesn't race Cobbles classics, so with 75 could compete in let's say Harelbeke and be top 10)
Danny Van Poppel +5 COB
Fuglsang +1 COB (Same as Nibali)
Skujins +1 COB
Groenewegen +1/2 COB
Haussler -1 COB
Roelandts -1 COB (Overrated guy in every db, his only really good result on the COBBLES was 3rd at RVV)
Wellens +6 COB (70), 64 is a bit low for this guy who proved that he can resist onto nearly every terrain.
Skjerping 67 COB
Benoot 66 COB
Kung 64 COB
Groenewegen 68 COB
Teunissen 70 COB
Van Keirsbulck 75 COB
Senechal 75 COB
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Froome -1 TT
Dumoulin +1 TT
Van Garderen is more likely a 77.49, so -1 TT
Dennis +1 TT
Dowsett +1 TT
Tvetcov +3 TT +3/4 FL (you said that you updated him, but.. no)
Degand +4 TT & PRL
van der lijke +9 TT (70) +7 PRL (71)
Uran +4/5 FL, Serry +2 TT
Samu Sanchez +1 TT
Wellens +2 TT
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Cancellara -1 PRL
Martin +1 PRL
Dumoulin +1 PRL
Malori -1 PRL
Phinney -1 PRL (I know he did nothing this year, but he NEVER done nothing in PRL, mainly good in long TTs)
Kwiatky +1 PRL
Thomas & Dowsett -1 PRL
Froome +1 PRL
Danny van Poppel +1 PRL
Tvetcov +4 PRL
Degand +4 PRL
Formolo +3 PRL
Cattaneo +3 PRL
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Daniel Moreno -1 HIL
Giampaolo Caruso +1 HIL
Majka +1 HIL
Gallopin +1/2 HIL (most likely 2)
Wellens +1/2 HIL (Most likely 2)
Van Keirsbulck +2/3 HIL
Hofland +2 HIL, he's very underrated.
Magnus Cort +1 HIL
Zoidl -1 HIL
Miguel Angel Lopez +4/5 HIL
Roelandts -1 HIL
Alafaci +4/5 HIL, he is a quite good puncher, too.
Tony Martin -2 HIL with 75 he would have won TDS
Aru +1 HIL (77 is worth)
Pasqualon +2 HIL, he is a good puncher
Rohan Dennis +1 HIL
Navarro 76 HIL (+1)
Bouhanni 72 HIL if not 73 but is better 72 (+3)
Overall upgrade for Andrea Fedi:
FL:71
SP:69
END:72
RES:70
REC:68
HIL:72
PO:6
Davidenok overall update (underrated in the db):
FL:69
MO:70/71
TT and PR:65-66
ACC:71
END:70
RES:66
REC:71/72
HI:72
PO:7
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Some rec suggestions as well:
Kittel has too high REC: Better put him to 80 REC, so -2 REC
Cav -1 REC
Uran -1 REC
Greipel -1 REC
Kristoff, crucial update +3/4 REC, because he's better in the 3rd week
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And why not some Potentials suggestions?!
Wellens 7 (biggest missing from the 7 po list)
Kudus 7 (tough one, but he's very young and he has already got some great results)
Grosu 7
Teunissen 7 (one of the best young guns for the cobbles classics)
Groenewegen 7 (same as above, bit less)
Alaphilippe 7
De Buyst 5
Davidenok 7 (+ overall upgrade)
Ruffoni 6 (tough one)
Daniel & Markus Hoelgaard 6
Mclay 6
Haig 6
Felline 6
Hugh Carthy 7
Muhlberger 7
Herklotz 7
Vervaeke 7
Sicard 6 (I know it is weird, but I would like to give a possibilit to this guy)
Gougeard 7
Mullen 6 + Great overall upgrade
________________________________________________________
Disclaimer:
All those stats are very subjective!
The post is updated constantly, every time I want to suggest something.
Edited by matt17br on 07-09-2014 09:23
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| Jesleyh |
Posted on 06-09-2014 10:02
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15274
Joined: 21-07-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Gonna check them all, matt.
First thing I can see is that you might be a tad too generous with 7 potential. You want stat inflation? Because that's how you get stat inflation
Also can't promise much about the topstats, but we'll see, your additional opinion is always welcome ofc and we'll debate it.
Feyenoord(football) and Kelderman fanboy
PCMdaily Awards: 12x nomination, 9x runner-up, 0x win.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 06-09-2014 10:10
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Jesleyh wrote:
Gonna check them all, matt.
First thing I can see is that you might be a tad too generous with 7 potential. You want stat inflation? Because that's how you get stat inflation
Also can't promise much about the topstats, but we'll see, your additional opinion is always welcome ofc and we'll debate it.
Ah, thank you
Well, yeah, there are a lot of riders with a big potential, maybe some of these are good with 6 as well. |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 06-09-2014 15:01
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
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Only some suggestions for the young guns:
Skjerping 67 COB
Benoot 66 COB
Kung 64 COB
Groenewegen 68 COB
Teunissen 70 COB
Van Keirsbulck 75 COB
Senechal 75 COB
And after Vuelta and Brussels:
Van Staeyen +1 SP & ACC because of his great year and this was one of the best results for him
Roy Jans +1 SP & ACC
Giampaolo Caruso +1 MO
Edited by matt17br on 06-09-2014 17:41
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