Looking at 2022 Polar, I can't help but notice that I've already seen this team. What did it used to be called? 2021 Polar? I can't remember. Anyway, Polar promoted last year and have kept the core largely intact. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Bernal maxed out and has already started wearing white jerseys around the neighborhood to establish the look. He's set to be a force over the next decade, especially with those backups, though I worry he's still a couple of years of training and declines away from being a legit PT stud. He should continue to balance well with Latour, who's more of a pure climber with an awesome kick, but both of them will be fighting for GT top 5's at best.
The big addition was Altur, and I'm not sure I feel great about that for 600k. I really like the guy on paper, and he's still only 29, but if he couldn't perform in a lean PCT last year, I'm not sure he'll do it in a stacked PT now. Behind him, it's all TT guys. That's been a part of Polar's identity before, but Mullen is now finally vying to a be a top 5 TT guy in the world after training, so that helps. I think Polar need him to be that guy if they want to survive. Izagirre should still score too if he works his calendar right, though I think his decline will hurt more than the stat amounts let on. At least Polar will have plenty of road captains with guys like Fielder, Baugnies, and about 75 other geriatrics getting a last ride.
My prediction: Hope for the best
Team Puma - SAP
Yet another team that has jumped full on board with the TTT craze. Unfortunately, with how hard a few teams went this offseason, I don't think Puma quite makes it to that top echelon despite their efforts. Nevertheless, Ganna should be an awesome TT leader both this year and going forward. It will be interesting to see how his prologue stat helps him comparatively, but it at least makes him a prime training candidate. I really love Cavagna too. Great TTT guy. but also somone you can plug anywhere on a great wage.
Other than that, Puma is top heavy. But the top is Silvio Herklotz, so... The dude is still 28, so not much to worry about for a while. I would have expected a superdomestique or secondary climber somewhere, but I'm sure he'll be fine without it. Then there's Demare, the Puma stalwart, who should continue to do his thing. Not as well as in the days of the old engine, but more than well enough. There's no way around it, the leadership depth is very lacking at Puma. No pure puncheur (though Demare and Herklotz can), no cobbles leader, and no secondary leaders on any terrain. And yet, while that team structure may make some of the calendar quite boring for Puma fans, they won't be hurting for points.
My prediction: Herklotz is love, Herklotz is life.
Team UBS
I really admire the committment to keeping UBS a Swiss (and Swiss adjascent) project. It can't be easy with several other teams now having a Swiss focus too. Howeverm the two new leaders this year, both signed as FA's after Mapei's disband, are not Swiss, and they came at a cost. Buchmann was the big story. UBS needed a PT puncheur and they put out an extremely substantial offer early in transfers of 850k to get their guy. Unsurprisingly, Buchmann obliged and within one hour was seen purchasing his first private island. Then it was Barguil's turn to get the bag - a mere 700k for the lowly pauper.
Unfortunately, I think this strategy, while admirable, will backfire. Buchmann is being paid like he's "the guy," but in this competition I just don't see him performing up to that role. Barguil is a good guy to split GC duties with Schelling, but he's not a top leader on his terrain. I also love how much the team has invested in Spengler over the years. But while I'm hopeful he'll emerge in the top echelon of cobblers, I'm still not optimistic with his climbing faults. Dillier should be a good secondary scorer still, but at this point I don't have faith in any TTT sqad because there are too many around to split points with each other throughout the year. I think we may see this core do very well in PCT again.
My prediction: Not quite enough
Tinkoff - La Datcha Team
I'm kind of surprised at Tinkoff this year. There have been some tough declines and retirements in recent years, and I'm not sure they've been properly recouped. In the first place, they will need to hope Tom Skujins has a bounceback campaign. He wasn't enough to keep a PCT team with a better GC guy from relegation last year, so that's not a given. Sivakov will be in that top GC tier in a few years, but for now he's a significant downgrade from 2021 Kritskiy. Speaking of the latter, the efforts to resign him deep into free agency clearly left the team in a suboptimal position.
For Tinkoff to stay afloat, they mostly need Senechal and Kamyshev to step up as formidable cobbles leaders. They will have to prove that last year's disppointments were a fluke and not the new normal. They also need Samolenkov to at least earn his wage if not overperform when possible. They have yet another TTT team - a little more top heavy than most, so maybe they'll have success there, but I still don't trust it given the competition. Vlasov should score good minor placings, and the domestiques tend to have cool energy stats, but I think there's no getting around that this team is weakened compared to previous iterations, and vulnerable to relegation.
My prediction: Falling off the pace
Zwift Pro Cycling
The good news for all the above teams is that there are only four relegation spots up for grabs this year, as one has already been claimed. That's not a knock on Mresuperstar's management at all. He has a vision, and he's seeing it through. It just involves relegating. The astronomical FA price for Girmay basically ensured it. We saw with Evenepoel and Huski that signing a big talent requires sacrifice, but the Eritrean's price was even higher and Zwift was already barely above the relegation line last season. The financial difficulties of the signing and loan requirements have left Zwift with only a single legitimate PT leader and perhaps 3 legitimate scoring threats. It's not a recipe for immediate success.
But let's focus on the positives for a second because this is a long term vision. Firstly, Yates is still insanely fun to watch and will be an awesome leader this year. He'll be an even cooler leader or a valuable sale in PCT next year. I love Powless as well. Only 26, American, and perfect for a certain type of stage race - happy he's in PT this year. Girmay is obviously set to be a legend of the sport, and he gets to ride for Carlsberg this year, which is quite an honor. But there's other young talent to be excited for here too. For example, Bram Welten has a really cool skillset, and Jorgenson is going to be an awesome home nation stage race leader. The future is bright, but there will be storms in the meantime.
My prediction: Grupetto vibes
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Thanks for doing all these, bbl! Enjoyed reading through them a lot. Guess your prediction/analysis of my team is correct. Decent guys, but nothing special and probably not enough to stay in PT. Looking forward to the start of the season even more now, after reading your not a pt preview
Thank you all for reading my random uninformed musings! Not quite my magnum opus like my PCT predictions a few years back in terms of detail or humor, but I wanted to at least contribute something this year.
Unfortunately, I won't be continuing onto PCT and CT - combination of being busy, the season starting soon, and those divisions being well covered with other predictions. But I hope you enjoyed this one at least a little!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Polar 
Team Puma - SAP 
Team UBS 
Tinkoff - La Datcha Team 
Zwift Pro Cycling 
