From your predictions I slightly disagree with Bennelong who I believe should end inside the top10.
Regarding relegation I think you are absolutely right on the teams going down, Porto included.
Losing both Zmorka and Fiedler was a poor decision, I should have sold only one of them. Claeys was also unreasonable and led me to have to sell Ferreira on a rush. I can only hope I've sent Avelino to the right races and that Claeys performances ignore his backup stats. Otherwise we're pretty much burned.
And I get it I'll train Borges next year.
And here we get 8-10, might be a few suprises for some here? I might overrate both UBS and Gazelle, but I like how the teams have been built
8th
Gazelle
Last season 9th
Leaders: Madrazo, Ginanni, Teunissen
Best new additions: Teunissen, Karnulin
Notable losses: Koren, Campenaerts
Sprints 1/10
Bibby best sprinter with 71 sprinting, not much to show here
Stage Races 9/10
Madrazo a great rider, had a down year least season but I believe we will see a better side of him this year. No real weakness even with acc down at 72. After him this team got a treasure chest of riders, 9 riders at 75 or higher Mon and pretty much all of them got nice backup stats. Should be able to score well all over here
Hills 7/10 Ginanni is still a good rider even declining, and as in the mountains the support and backup is world class, here as well there are 9 riders with 75 or higher hill, expect to see Gazelle guys all over
Time Trials 6/10
Good depth here as well and many riders with good stat combinations, thought there are no time trial star to drag the score higher, but still a very strong team here
Cobbles 5/10
Teunissen is a good rider, but lacking some important stat points in hill and acc to be really great. 2 helpers in Potts and Kruijswijk who should help him try to get some top 10s
Depth 10/10
Can I really say anything more about the depth here? It is awesome!
General 38/60
This is Madrazo and Ginannis team, and it is built both to support them extremely well, but also to attack from everywhere when they are not racing. A volatile squad that could do very well, could totally fail and could end up where I believe they will, about where they were last season, most likely top 10
9th
EA Vesuvio
Last season: 4th
Leaders: Schleck, Van der Lijke, Gastauer, Keinath, Kittel, Bakari
Best new additions: Reimer, Afewerki
Notable losses: König, Vanmarcke, Wippert
Sprints 5/10
Van der Lijke is the sprint leader and while not being a super sprinter he backs it up by having a great hill stat, if it wasnt for this stat EA Vesuvio would've been ranked much lower here. Now he should have good scoring, and with Reimer being the same type of rider and Afewerki a really good leadout they can score some good points here
Stage races 9/10
Schleck should might have started declining, but is still a great leader, can compare him to Alarcon from last year, just a bit better and can still fight for the best positions, though will most likely loose in battles against the likes of Spilak and Taarmäe. Keinath, Goos and Kirsch is great options with well rounded stats.
Hills 7/10
Gastauer is a good rider with very good support here, also interesting how Van der Lijke and Reimer will be used. I do not rank Gastauer among the really best riders in the division and that takes a hit on this score for EA Vesuvio
Time Trials 6/10
Kittel still a good rider that can score a nice amount of points, many riders with good stats in addition to a nice TT stat helps the score here. Jungels and Kneisky good members of a TTT squad that could do well.
Cobbles 9999/10 (3/10)
Bakari, Schlecter and Ghani. Bakari himself makes this the best cobble squad in the PT, earning a 9999 score. To be honest I didn't dare to score it lower than 3 just in case his cobble stat makes him steal some unlikely points
Depth 8/10
Great climbing and hilly depth, nice leadout in Afewerki and a nice TT squad. Many riders with allround stats that can score extra points.
General 38/60
I feel with Schleck declining and König and Vanmarcke leaving EA Vesuvio is weaker than last year, and will fall down to about midtable. The depth of the team is great, and I really love how some of the riders can make big surprises
10th
Team UBS
Last season 4th PCT
Leaders: Amador, Trofimov, Schelling, Reinhardt, Spengler
Best new additions: Trofimov
Notable losses: Kung
Sprints 3/10
Reinhardt is a sprinter I believe could be great, if he recieved some training. As it is he is just not strong enough in the PT. Page is a good leadout rider. I hope Reinhardt proves me wrong and shows the value of a great acc stat
Stage races 8/10
Amador and Schelling is a good pair. I like the training of Schelling. They both lack a tiny bit to be among the best but both should good points for UBS this year. Some nice support down the anks as well, with Ivars being a favorite of mine.
Hills 8/10
Trofimov is still a great rider, and Reichenbach is a good number 2. As with stage races there are some nice riders down the ranks as well and UBS should be able to score some good points here. Trofimov as always got great backups, even when declining and how he is used will always be interesting to see
Time Trials 8/10
A good time trial squad with Dillier, Ivars, Goncalves, Schär and Ramos Ticona. Should be able to deliver some good results, specially when you factor in the TT stat of their leaders.
Cobbles 5/10
Spengler is not a bad rider, but still lacks a bit, which he will recieve in a year when maxing… Bohli is not a bad supporting rider, while Wyss and Schär is ok. Other than that there is not a lot
Depth 7/10
Good climbing and hilly depth (I write this a lot I feel), also a good team on TTs. Lacking a bit in sprints and cobbles but not anything really bad. Quite some riders who could steal points here and there
General 39/60
I like this squad and i believe UBS should be able to stay up. Very interesting to see how good Spengler will be in the future, and if he is able to score good points this season. Apart from Isostar the best promoting team in my opinion. Even with Amador and Trofimov declining next season there is a bright future here
Well, I guess somebody has to finish last... Tenorio's history seems to be a thorn in our side. Basically we have an OK team on paper, but an unpredictable team in-game. I'm fine with that. Should make for a fun season back in the PT.
We are closing in on the podium, here comes 5th to 7th
5th
T-Mobile
Last season 14th
Leaders: Taaramäe, Van Garderen, Fiedler, Marquez, Krasnoperov?
Best new additions: Van Garderen, Fiedler, Marquez
Notable looses: Cattaneo, Stauff, Dowsett, Schädlich
Sprints 3/10
Docker and Soupe are not top additions on any sprints squad, and even if Selig and Altanzul are nice leadouts it dosen't really help. Any results from these riders would be a bonus
Stage races 10/10
Taaramäe himself is close to a 10, and T-Mobile has focused a lot on this part of the team. Marquez is a really interesting number 2 and Preidler is not a bad number 3, event though he lacks a bit of acc.
Hills 8/10
Van Garderen is a good rider with no real weakness, just not as good as the best puncheurs. Buchman and Preidler are good riders themself but the support under there is not anything to brag about
Time Trials 9/10
Fiedler is apart from Phinney the best time trialists in PT, and his backup stats are not bad. There are also some other good time trialists in the squad like Hofer, Bontenackels and Predatsch but they lack more in terms of other stats. Not the best TTT squad and that takes away from the grade that could've been
Cobbles 1/10
Go Scwarzmann!
Depth 8/10
Great climbing depth, and ok everywhere other than cobbles. Some riders that can score extra points here and there
General 39/60
The parts of the team that are good are very good, the rest is not that good. The lack of top sprinters and any cobblers at all can hurt the team, a bit lacking in hilly depth aswell after the 3 best ones.
6th
RBC Pro Cycling
Last season 11th
Leaders: Phinney, Summerhill, Houle
Best new additions: Cort Nielsen, Benoot
Notable losses: Howard, Duchesne
Sprints 5/10
Loosing Howard hurts, and makes Houle the main sprinter of the team. He wont be among the best sprinters, but his hill and flat statt does make him a really interesting rider. Young as a leadout dosen't look bad
Stage Races 9/10
Phinney is a great rider, I say this a lot but if he had been trained to 85 Mon… Anyway he is a safe point scorer and on himself gives RBC a good grade here. While the team lacks a real number 2 there are several good point scorers in Cort Nielsen, Brown and Rosskopf
Hills 2/10
Not a lot to see here. Rosskopf and Benoot can score some breakway points but not much else
Time Trial 9/10
Cataford is a really interesting rider that could do very well this season. Rosskopf and Brown also look very good. Then there is also the big favorite on any TT in Phinney. A great TT squad, but lacks a bit as a TTT squad and therefor I can't give them a top grade
Cobbles 10/10
With GVA declining I rank Summerhill as the second best cobble rider in the game, and here he got really good support with Young, Laporte, Benoot, Naud, van Zyl, Basso and Corwin. All in all a very good cobble squad and Summerhill should have no reason to fail this year
Depth 7/10
In general a deep squad wtih many riders who could steal points based on their hill and ok backups. A bit lacking in the second leader department. Among the best cobble supports with 4 75 riders to help Summerhill
General 42/60
A strong team based upon 2 great Americans. Could really fail if they for some reason dosen't deliver, but I doubt that will happen, both are Top 3 in their field in my opinion
7th
Isostar Slovenija
Last season 2nd PCT
Leaders: Spilak, Kump, Mohoric, Polanc
Best new additions: Spilak, Faiers, Ricco, Pernsteiner
Notable losses: Brändle, Quevedo
Sprints 7/10
Kump is a force, with the awesome Hill/Sprint combo that is getting more and more usual in PT now. Lacking any second option and not any really good leadout riders either
Stage races 10/10
Discussed a lot with myself if Isostar deserves a 10 or a 9, but having the TDF champion turned it towards 10. Faiers is also a good number 2 and there are several good riders behind that aswell
Hills 9/10
Spilak and Mohoric should in combination be able to ride every hilly race there is. Mohoric a year or 2 of training away from being one of the very best, and Spilak in general an awesome rider. Some really good support from riders like Pernsteiner, Bratashcuk and Kratochvila as well
Time Trials 3/10
Not a great time trial setup, Spilak and Faiers the best, but I believe they will focus elsewhere and then there are not much left. I give this a 3 in case one of them shows up a bit
Cobbles 4/10
Polanc is a nice rider, but not really PT cobble leader quality yet, should fight for some nice Top 10's however. The 2nd and 3rd best cobblers are Kump and Spilak… Expect Polanc to be on his own
Depth 7/10
Lots of good depth pieces that can score points for the team, lacking in Time Trials, Cobbles and sprinting but the depth of climbing and hills make up for it. The scoring potential from riders like Ricco, Pernsteiner, Kratochvila etc makes me set the grade a bit higher
General 40/60
In my opinion a really good promoting team with a very nice leading trio. Getting Spilak assured a second season in PT and then the Mohoric show starts. I believe this is at least a top 10 squad
Would value your own squad higher in hills than Isostar tbh. Can't Imagine Spilak will ride many classics, other than Lombardia and possibly LBL. And Tejay is certainly > Mohoric.
That being said, some more good reads. Would be hugely impressive if Isostar manages the 7th place you predict them to.
And fourth place is up, great depth, but just lack a tiny bit to join the podium
4th
Aker - MOT
Last season: 12th
Leaders: Beltran, Trentin, Guldhammer, Ciolek, Vakoc, Vesely, Enger, Galta, Paillot
Best new additions: Ciolek, Vakoc, Vesely, Paillot
Notable losses: Kristoff
Sprints 8/10
Aker is all about depth, and also in the sprinting department. Ciolek, Enger, Vesely, Scully are all good sprinters that can win stages, though none of the are on the Swift/Bewley/Coquard level. However they will be able to pick up a good amount of points purely based on being good sprinters on every flat stage there are in PT
Stage Races 6/10
Lacking the big leader still got a good team in Guldhammer, Galta and Beltran (however he is used). Should be able to split them out well and score a nice amount of points. Galta has a major weakness in acc that makes his season more of a question sign, but his other stats are strong.
Hills 7/10
Beltran (again) and Vakoc is a good pair and should score some points. Vakoc had a bad year least year while being 2nd to Sagan and we are not sure how he will do this season and how many races they will overlap.
Time Trials 6/10
A good leader in Paillot that with his backup stats (except for acc) should be one of the stronger riders on this terrain this season. Should be able to score well in the Time Trial races and Chrono. Vangstad and Walsleben is also good riders and the team got many riders who can time trial if needed, but will not be among the best TTT squads.
Cobbles 7/10
Among the best cobble squads last season, but have sold off quite a lot of the support riders. Still Trentin is a monster who can ride hills and sprint at the end of classics. The support from Lagab, Lhottellerie and Walsleben is good and I expect Trentin to have another good season
Depth 10/10
Have to give Aker a 10 here, considering that most of their leaders will figure as depth pieces as well during the season. In addition most of the riders after that is riders capable of scoring points from breakaways.
General 44/60
A strong team that I expect to get higher than last years 12th, the big weakness in the squad is the lack of a 1000++ points scorer, but should be mitigated by scoring from everywhere
tastasol wrote:
Would value your own squad higher in hills than Isostar tbh. Can't Imagine Spilak will ride many classics, other than Lombardia and possibly LBL. And Tejay is certainly > Mohoric.
That being said, some more good reads. Would be hugely impressive if Isostar manages the 7th place you predict them to.
I think it would be hugely impressive if they don't manage a top 7 looking at that team setup. Strong enough in cobbles to pose a threat and score decently, perfectly balanced in the hills, good depth in all areas, a strong punchy sprinter to cover what can't be covered by the puncheurs and a clever manager.
They basically are capable of good points everywhere except for the pure mass sprints, which will be somewhat of a lottery this season with so many people trying to benefit.
Really think my team's too high will take an amazing season from Phinney and Summerhill for that think 10th-15th is about right for us really happy you like the breakaway potential a lot of riders were bought exactly because of that and how i've backed up summerhill a lot better then last year. Very interesting we have a lot of teams in the same spots some big differences namely Ebuddy and yourself
And we add number 3, despite two leaders leaving the team, training and development takes them up to a podium
3rd
Team Puma - SAP
Last season 7th
Leaders: Herklotz, Demare, Kelderman, Nerz, Arndt
Best new additions: Wackermann, Hadi
Notable losses: Ciolek, Blythe, Lander
Sprints 9/10
Demare is an awesome rider with 79 hill and 82 sprint, and he got stronger this year with training. He got some nice leadout riders in Felline, Anton Martin, Hadi and Wackermann. No number 2 here, and Demare not at the very top on flat sprints takes this away from being a perfect score
Stage Races 9/10
Herklotz is a really nice rider and Nerz, Arndt and Bongiorno are also very good. Puma should be able to send good climbers to every race and should be able to score quite a lot from the different riders. Low acc on Nerz and Bongiorno could be a weakness
Hills 8/10
Demare again, but also Kelderman and Felline are very good riders. Should score a lot of points from hilly races also with several good support riders. Holding the team a bit back that Kelderman is a tier below the very best
Time Trials 6/10
Sütterlin a very good time trialist, and there are several other like Bevin and Van Baarle. A nice TTT squad, but not really among the very best. Should anyway be able to support the leaders well when needed
Cobbles 4/10
Declerq is not a bad rider, but against the very best he is out of his depth. The team should be happy with any points he end up scoring. Loosing Blythe hurts
Depth 8/10
A deep squad overall, very good depth in the mountains and on the hills, ok TT depth but a bit lacking sprintwise and on the cobbles
General 44/60
A very good squad that I feel just lack a tiny bit to be the favorite to win it all. Riders like Herklotz, Demare and Kelderman would look nice on any team. With a bit of luck, and riders like Kelderman doing better than I expect and they might win it in the end
I'll happily take 4th any day of the week. That would be a brilliant result looking at my team, I feel. As you rightly point out, we lack the 1000+ points scorer, which I expect to be felt, especially now with the new crash frequence of 0. In one way, that makes our depth slightly, slightly less valuable, I feel.
And with lots of great stage racers now doing two GTs compared to previous seasons, it feels like the "cheap" points I hoped to pick up from at least one of them GC wise won't be there. Seeing how many brilliant climbers and stage racers that have already stated they're doing the Giro, I already regret sending Guldhammer there and not to the Tour, which so far seems to be the easiest GT this season looking at the competition behind the very best. Especially when the Tour suits him better on paper, but I thought I was clever in my planning sending him to the Giro. Only fooled myself, it seems
Those two factors makes me believe my team should finish somewhere between 6th and 10th, but as you've said several times, it seems like this season will be very, very close in general, meaning one great result could turn things upside down. I just hope I'm at the lucky end for such turns
I definitely have your own team well above my team this season. As you write yourself when writing about sprinters, the competition there is loaded this season, making it difficult for other teams than Festina and Aegon to get those big scorings from pure sprinter's (flat) races, which means your own lack of a good sprinter probably won't be felt that much compared to other top teams.
With Taaramäe being the obvious favourite for the individual standings, with TVG in the mix as well as the 3rd/4th best puncheur in the game and a consistent top 5 scorer, you've got some brilliant leaders to put you at least on the podium, I think, as I can't make my mind up if your team is the biggest favourite for the overall or if it's one of those two you've left. And then I haven't even mentioned Fiedler, who is also world class, Marquez with that killer acceleration, and your depth, which should see a steady and solid points income in races your top guns don't do.
Leaders: Ponzi, Kristoff, Alarcon, Slagter, Carapaz
Best new additions: Kristoff, Havik
Notable losses: Bilbao, Silva
Sprints 8/10
Kristoff is a great new addition, and Havik/Aberasturi looks like a good leadout duo that might get some chances themself. Kristoff might have a bit weak acc compared to some of his best competition and that drags the score down a bit
Stage races 8/10
Alarcon is a force and will target another good season, even though I believe he will do worse than last year, can't see him being as lucky with GT competition 2 years in a row. Carapaz is a good number 2 and there are some nice points scorers down the lists as well
Hills 10/10
Ponzi is a top 2 hilly rider in the game, and the team also has Slagter, Landa and more support. I expect another great season from Ponzi, even when racing against Hagen. Slagter could with good planning be a revelation this season, so it will be really interesting to see where he races
Time Trials 6/10
Gonzales Salas is a nice rider, though a bit lacking in backup stats, same can be said about Ligthart and Aramendia. Though all in all not a bad TT setup
Cobbles 6/10
Kristoff the leader here aswell, and once again with support from Havik (Richardson steps in a bit also). Kristoff lacks a bit in cobbles against the very best and will loose some because of that, but should win most sprints from the group he ends in
Depth 7/10
Very good depth in climbing and hills, ok depth in TT, good depth in sprinting and ok depth on cobbles. All in all an ok deep squad
General 44/60
I believe this is one of the teams to watch this season, strenghtening after a good season last year where they were less than 150 points away from 6th. I believe this is a top 5 squad this year
2nd
Moser - Sygic
Last season 2nd
Leaders: Bewley, Sagan, Hirt, Barguil
Best new additions: Barguil, Chen
Notable losses: Velits, Vesely, Vakoc
Sprints 8/10
Sam Bewley is Sam Bewley, he go one weakness this season, his race days has taken a heavy toll. With only 34 of them he might not show up in a lot of sprints, and Chen/Croket/Hoffman will not score a lot of points, on the other hand, if he shows up they are one hell of a train
Stage Races 8/10
Lossing Velits hurt, but a trained Barguil is a pretty good rider, neither him nor Hirt is really among the very best though, but as a pair they are great. Moser should hope that being able to split them up to most races will give a good amount of points.
Hills 9/10
Sagan was awesome last year, and might continue his great form. On the other hand we believe it will be harder this year with a better puncheur field in PT. Vysna, Marycz and Kolar are good support riders, but not the best.
Time Trials 3/10
Danacik and Turek are ok riders, Danacik with some good backup stats could score some points but I don't expect too much from them
Cobbles 10/10
Bewley is here,, enough said (and he got some nice support riders that should help him til he dosen't need it anymore)
Depth 7/10
I feel the depth was better last year, but it is still pretty good. Riders like Vysna, Danacik, Hosek, Kolar and maybe even Chen should be able to pick up some points here and there. Good support in every terrain except TTTs
General 45/60
This is the team I believe is the biggest favorite for the season. Looks weaker on paper having let go of Velits, Vakoc and Vesely but of them only Velits scored any mayor points last year. With Festina and EA dropping in level this could be Roman and Mosers big year, but watch out for the teams coming from behind!
Agree alot with your prediction. Top 5 should definetely be the goal this year, although we might finish closer to the top 10 spot aswell, if we run into some bad luck.
I dont expect Alarcon and Slagter to be as great as last year. At all. And I'm not counting on miracles from Kristoff either.
I would put Moser as clear title favourite if it werent for the two 81 mt guys. Struggling a bit to see how those two are gonna get too many points at PT-level, especially now with the increased race days.
Thanks alot for your predictions and writings heine, was a joy to scroll trough them all!
Honestly, finishing for third straight year as 2nd team and for fourth straight on the podium would be a great result, but honestly, if not this year, my chances of winning it all are only getting smaller with Bewley nearing years of declining. So my hope is we can do it this year. May be too hard task with teams like T-Mobile, Hugo Boss, Puma or Aker around though. Would not underestimate teams like Festina or Isostar as well! I really think this season could be a lot closer than the last few seasons with 2 to 3 teams running away from the field.
I feel like my team may stay at a similar level like in the last year. My hope is Hirt and Barguil can get a similar amount of points as Velits, Vakoc and Vesely in the last season. Then I am missing points of Hirt, but finishing above 7k points may be enough this year, who knows.
I think you get it right, Heine. My hope is that being able to split Hirt and Barguil to most races will give me a good amount of points.
Third would mean having had a massive season, maybe even too good for my liking looking at renewals (it will never end...)
Although I'd have an easier time fitting in everyone then than was the case this time, with lots of budget spent on new talents or even left untouched.
Personally, I'm not as confident as the general consensus that losing Blythe and Ciolek can be made up for that well. I'd surely take 5th too to just achieve my goal, looking at the flurry of red stats on T-Mobile and Aker.
A lot depends on the Vuelta and how the AI treats Demare among the bigger guns. At least we won't get any complete injury-related no-showings like LBL or whatever Nerz did anymore.
