Stromeon wrote:
1) Rogers finds some Sky form and somehow gains a minute over Kangert etc
2) Contador consumes a whole cow within 24 hours
3) The rest of the field spontaneously combust

Today we have the first 2013 Suisse stage in line. It’s a 167km stage from Quinto to Crans-Montana. The stage has a summit finish, and therefore I expect plenty gaps in the GC. The stage finishes at 1671m, and starts from just about sea-level, which means it’s quite an impressive climb. It’s a 16km climb of nearly 7% of average gradient. From about 3 to 1,5 km from the finish, the climb is relatively flat, but after that, the steepest part of the climb follows, with gradients over 17%.
Before the Crans-Montana climb, there’s a long(100km-ish) flat part. The riders have to tackle the tough Nufenenpass first, but given it’s very far from the finish, I expect that climb not to have any impacts on the race.
It is not likely at all that the race leader, Tony Martin, will hold on to his leader’s jersey today.

Favourites

N.Quintana(MOV)


V.Nibali(AST)
J.Rodriguez(KAT)


R.Porte(SKY)
R.Kreuziger(TST)
C.Betancur(ALM)

The Race
161km –

After a few kilometres of waiting, here’s the first attack! It’s Kurri(AJW)! A few bits later, Van Leijen(OPQ), Offredo(FDJ) and Tjallingii(BEL) try their luck as well.
156km -

More riders try to break away. It involves a good climber, Txurruka(CJR). Others are Longo Borghini(CAN) and Garcia(EUS). Sky is setting a very fast pace with Stannard and Pate though.
154km -

Those riders are reeled in and instantly, a new break has formed. Involving Offredo, Kurri and Txurruka again. This time, Voigt is there as well. Sky doesn’t seem a fan of this break either, nor is Euskaltel, but they are able to sustain a gap for now.
145km -

Being halfway on the climb, the attackers are still ahead, around 50 seconds. They are not able to increase the gap for now. Offredo and Kurri clearly don’t like this part of the race, all they can do is try to hang on, while Voigt and Txurruka set a nice pace.
142km -

Kurri and Offredo both have to drop from the strong duo. The question is whether they can rejoin later or if they have to drop back to the peloton, which is just 40 seconds ahead of Kurri now.
139km -

Bad news for the dropped escapees, the peloton picked them up. So there will probably only be two escapees today. Other potential attackers will have to bridge a 1’20 gap by now, and that gap is growing, since the pack calmed a bit down after the 2 escapees were picked up.
137km -

Voigt won the KoM sprint, obviously ahead of Txurruka. They are already 3’30 ahead of the pack, which finally gives the two some space, now. Bulgac(LTB) attacked from the peloton as well and is now hanging in the middle, 2’30 off the lead.
Rabottini(VIN) and Atapuma(COL) showed a lot of interest in KoM points by attacking from the peloton. They take respectively 6 and 4 points and seem to show intentions of joining the breakaway, joining Bulgac shortly after.
128km -

Bulgac, Rabottini and Atapuma are back in the peloton, some of the riders didn’t like the idea of the latter 2 joining the breakaway. So only Voigt and Txurruka are ahead as of now, roughly 3 minutes.
100km -
At the 100km mark, the gap has increased to 5 minutes, and it doesn’t look like it will increase much more.
74km -

The pace in the front group doesn’t seem to be all that high, given that the gap between them and the peloton is just over 3 minutes now.
50km -
Gap is at 2’32, the breakaway riders don’t seem to have much chance today. OPQS is mainly taking care of the relays today, with Sky and Garmin being there as well.
34km -

Voigt wins the intermediate sprint. Just a bit more than 2 minutes later, Rojas lets Goss take 3rd at the Intermediate sprint, so that he can get 4th himself.
The pace in the peloton goes up now, it seems, with strangely enough, Argos, Belkin and Radioshack desiring a quick return of the escapees.
24km –

Actually, echelons are starting to form now, surprisingly. The same three teams are there, plus AG2R. None of the GC contenders is really positioned well, but Porte and Kreuziger are positioned the worst. With the climb starting quite soon, I don’t think a lot of things will change.
21km -

With the pack coming in the distance, on a bit more than 1 minute, Voigt won the second IS as well.
The pack seems to stay together.
16km -

While the leaders duo reached the start of the climb, Atapuma(COL) attacks again. He only has 45 seconds to close now. Quintana is situated halfway the peloton, while the other favourites are fine. Not exactly the best way to start the climb.
15km -

Purito goes early and nobody is intending to follow!
Meanwhile, Atapuma has reached the leaders, 45 seconds in front of the pack.
14km -

Purito easily reached the front, and that group is now fairly disorganised. Movistar put Visconti at the front of the peloton.
13km -

Nibali goes as well now! Also, Txurruka and Voigt are looking empty, while Atapuma can hang on to Purito for now. Quintana, Porte and Kreuziger are safe at the front now. Totti(IAM) is not at all, hanging at the back of the peloton!
12km -

Quintana on the attack as well now. Atapuma is able to hang on to Rodriguez, while Nibali is in between both groups. Bardet(ALM) is looking to follow Quintana, but has some trouble with that.
11km -

A lot of movement now. Quintana and Nibali managed to join Purito at the very front. Bardet, Atapuma and now Kiserlovski(RLT) are in the second group, half a minute later. Porte and Kreuziger are counting on the chasers.
10,5km -

Purito attacks and gives himself a gap on the other two. Betancur attacks and joins the group of Bardet, Atapuma and Kiserlovski.
In the peloton, the first big split happens, leaving only 46 at the front. Moreno(KAT) & Totti(IAM) miss out.
10km -

Due to a very tough pace, the Betancur group is back in the peloton. Due to a new split, where Evans ,Ghita and the yellow jersey(Martin) miss out of, there are only 18 riders left in that said peloton.
Purito is 25 secs ahead of Nibbles and Nairo, while those are 45 seconds ahead of the chasers.
8500m -

Quintana tries to shake off Nibali, but fails. Betancur attacks from the chaser’s group.

7000m – With a split in the chaser’s group, it seems a good idea to show you the current gaps:
Leader – Rodriguez
Group Quintana – Quintana, Nibali – 0’32
Group Betancur – Betancur – 0’50
Group Porte – Porte, Hesjedal, Kreuziger, Scarponi, Kiserlovski, Muriel, Kelderman, de las Campos, Bardet – 1’10.
Group EBH – Boasson Hagen, LL Sanchez, Atapuma, Cataldo, Visconti 1’30.
Group Yellow jersey – 27 riders – 2’20.

6500m -

The three strongest guys from group Porte: Porte, Hesjedal & Kreuziger, decided to attack. They have Betancur in sight immediately. Purito increased his gap to 36 seconds, and looks good for the win.
5000m -

The 3 guys reached Betancur and they’re now looking to reach Quintana & Nibali, though that doesn’t seem very likely. Purito has 29 seconds on them while going under the 5km banner. The group of 6 behind doesn’t seem to come back, despite good efforts of Scarponi and GT prospect Kelderman.
4000m -

Purito does extremely well by maintaining the gap. Quintana can’t shake Nibali off either. The peloton, led by Evans, is getting close to the group of EBH.
3200m -

De Las Campos, Scarponi and Kelderman(currently positioned 8th, 9th and 10th on the stage) decide to attack. None of the 2 AG2R riders joins. Purito has 28 seconds on the strong duo, while those 2 look safe and will probably fill up today’s podium.
2400m -

Hesjedal, Porte, Kreuziger and Betancur seem to fight for 4th today. Kelderman, Scarponi and De Las Campos probably won’t reach them. The peloton is even quite close to the trio already, having picked up the rest behind them. The situation at the front is still the same.
2000m -

With just 2km to go, things look great for Rodriguez. Unless he completely cracks on the steep part, he has this in the pocket. Meanwhile, Totti(IAM) caught up with the peloton, which is impressive, because he started this climb as one of the last cyclists. The peloton will not reach the trio ahead, that is sure.
1000m -

Purito has 40 seconds on the nr.2 with just a km to go. This one’s for him!
A bit at the back, Porte is giving the other 3 in his group a hard time by attacking!
500m -

Purito can already start cheering now. Quintana also took a tiny gap on Nibbles now, while Porte is actually getting near the two guys.
Finish -

There it is! Great win for Purito! Quintana finishes 2nd, and Nibali & Porte finish together, with Nibbles holding on to third.

Kreuziger pips out Hesjedal nearly 2 minutes after Purito crossed the line. Scarponi nearly reached Betancur, who finishes 7th.
De las Campos and Kelderman finishes the Top 10.
Evans had a very impressive last part, and reaches his goal, a 11th place!

Purito obviously takes the GC lead, ahead of Quintana and Nibali, who’s now on the same GC time as Porte, due to bonification seconds. A huge peloton finishes at 18 minutes. Totti managed to finish 19th as well, which is impressive, because he wasn’t even close to the initially 46 riders split.

Richie Porte took over the points jersey, because he did well both yesterday as today. Voigt is the deserved KoM leader.


Results:

1	Joaquím Rodríguez	Katusha Team	4h36'39
2	Nairo Quintana	Movistar Team	+ 26
3	Vincenzo Nibali	Astana Pro Team	+ 42
4	Richie Porte	Sky Procycling	s.t.
5	Roman Kreuziger	Team Saxo - Tinkoff	+ 1'51
6	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin - Sharp	s.t.
7	Carlos Betancur	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 2'04
8	Michele Scarponi	Lampre - Merida	s.t.
9	Cristiano De las Campos	Euskaltel - Euskadi	+ 2'33
10	Wilco Kelderman	Belkin Pro Cycling Team	+ 2'43

GC

1	Joaquím Rodríguez	Katusha Team	4h47'02
2	Nairo Quintana	Movistar Team	+ 25
3	Vincenzo Nibali	Astana Pro Team	+ 32
4	Richie Porte	Sky Procycling	s.t.
5	Roman Kreuziger	Team Saxo - Tinkoff	+ 1'50
6	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin - Sharp	s.t.
7	Michele Scarponi	Lampre - Merida	+ 2'04
8	Carlos Betancur	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 2'14
9	Wilco Kelderman	Belkin Pro Cycling Team	+ 2'37
10	Cristiano De las Campos	Euskaltel - Euskadi	+ 2'50

Points

1	Richie Porte	Sky Procycling	9	17
2	Tony Martin	Omega Pharma - Quick•Step Cycling Team	0	15
3	Joaquím Rodríguez	Katusha Team	15	15
4	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Sky Procycling	0	12
5	Jens Voigt	RadioShack - Leopard	12	12
6	Nairo Quintana	Movistar Team	12	12
7	Lieuwe Westra	Vacansoleil - DCM Pro Cycling Team	0	10
8	Vincenzo Nibali	Astana Pro Team	10	10
9	Andriy Grivko	Astana Pro Team	0	9
10	Roman Kreuziger	Team Saxo - Tinkoff	8	8

KoM

Rank	Name	Team	Mountain	General
1	Jens Voigt	RadioShack - Leopard	20	20
2	Amets Txurruka	Caja Rural - Seguros RGA	15	15
3	Joaquím Rodríguez	Katusha Team	12	12
4	Brian Bulgac	Lotto Belisol	10	10
5	Nairo Quintana	Movistar Team	8	8

U25: Quintana
Team: Sky

GT prospect Kelderman

Today we’ll have another mountain stage. This one is a lot different to the summit finish of yesterday though. Stamina will come into play today, with the stage being just above 200km. The riders will have to tackle the Winterlücke today. A category 1 climb which has a summit on 1300m, 20km from the finish. The climb has a steep middle part, mainly. An interesting downhill follows after the climb, with a major bump halfway the downhill, for the climbers to make the last differences. It’s not unthinkable to have a small group sprint deciding this stage. But the good downhillers could take some time on the others today as well. Or who knows, a break win could be a possibility as well?


Favourites

V. Nibali(AST)


J.Rodriguez(KAT)
R.Hesjedal(GAR)

N.Quintana(MOV)
C.Evans(BMC)
*An attacker that can descend pretty well*

The Race
198km -

Some good riders try to escape early. Rabottini(VIN) and Vichot(FDJ) give it a go!
196km -
It looks like we have some more attackers. Haas(OGE), Hoogerland(VAC) and again Bulgac(LTB) try an attack as well!
195km -
Kritskiy set a tough pace and managed to get the trio back in the peloton. The other 2 seem to have received some space.
190km -

While the leaders have 1’20, Chaves(COL) and Piedra(CJR) decide to attack as well. Both are solid climbers. Radioshack and Katusha are chasing now.
184km -
Ouch, Chaves and Piedra are already back in the peloton now. Katusha, Radioshack and Orica apparently didn’t like the idea of a strong break. It’s not certain if Rabottini and Vichot are allowed to be the break of the day yet.
175km -
When the Italian and Frenchman finally got the space they needed, around 2 mins, Hoogerland(VAC) and Vrecer(EUS) try their luck. They have to bridge a big gap, but the pack slowed down.
160km -

Yes, the 4 of them will fill up today’s breakaway. Already having 4 minutes and counting.
140km -
Frank(BMC) crashes inside the peloton. No others involved and Frank can just continue his way in the peloton.
138km -
While being nearly 7 mins ahead of the pack, Rabottini took the KoM sprint in front of Hoogerland. Vrecer takes 3rd despite a lack of interest.
120km -
The gap seems to have maxed out at just under 9 minutes. Dangerous, if you ask me, but plenty of flat roads left.
Also, notable is that the wind force has increased to 45, while the wind will be coming from the side even in later parts of the race. You all know what that means, echelons much?
100km -
The gap has already decreased to 7 minutes now, due to the peloton trying to create some echelons for a bit. When that didn’t exactly work, also because the amount of wind was decreasing, the teams in the peloton seem to have dropped the pace a bit.
75km -
The gap is just 5’30 now.
57km -
Good news for most cycling fans: The winds are getting heavier and due to the peloton just having taken a turn, there are now crosswinds. I don’t know if a lot will happen today, but I sure hope so! Gap’s at 4’15.
50km -
Nobody cares about the IS. Rabottini ‘wins’ it ahead of Vichot and Hoogerland.
3’45 is what’s in between the attackers and the peloton.
38km -
The pace in the peloton still is tough, but there were not a lot of causalities. A peloton of 166 riders remains, with only some sprinters missing the cut. Here’s Feunard(CJR) in one of the last wheels.
The escapees still have 2’50 on the peloton.
33km -
Everyone in the break suddenly cares about KoM points. Vrecer beats the others in the sprint for the win. Gap is still around the same, which means that they’re not chanceless at all!
31km -
Instantly after, there’s an intermediate sprint. Hoogerland goes for it and wins it. Due to all the mess of the sprints, Vichot is actually behind now, and it will be interesting to see whether the others wait for him or not.
28km -
Nope, they won’t, and Vichot drops himself to the peloton, which is just 2 minutes behind by now.
The early attackers start the climb now.
26km -
The big guys attack! Quintana(MOV) puts in an acceleration, and current leader Rodriguez(KAT) grabs his wheel. Cataldo(SKY) follows as well, and a bit later, Ronaldo(IAM) and Betancur(ALM) accelerate as well, yet those two fail to get away.
25km -
The riders reach the steep part of the climb. BMC and Astana having confidence in their leaders, it seems, given that they are chasing the attackers now. Rodriguez and Quintana have dropped Cataldo and are now chasing the early attackers down, there’s only 45 seconds in between the duo and the break.
24km -
Rabottini and Vrecer decide to attack, dropping Hoogerland. Purito and Quintana have already overtaken Hoogerland now. Just 20 seconds back, Nibali sets a very strong pace, preventing Betancur to attack as well, and making sure that Cataldo is back into the peloton.
23km -
Nibali’s pace actually made him getting a gap on the peloton, nearly reaching the leaders. Hesjedal(GRS), Kreuziger(TST) and Betancur try to attack as well. The 2 GC leaders have reached Rabottini and are about to drop him.
21km -
The steep part is over now. The 3 attackers managed to join the front group, making it a group of 7. Nocentini(ALM) and Vrecer hang in between at 45 seconds, and at 1’15, there’s the reduced peloton, where mainly Porte is doing the pace.
19km -
The riders reached the summit. Kreuziger was the first to reach it. Rabottini has been dropped just before the summit. A group of 6 climbers remains, roughly 50 seconds in front of the relatively big peloton.
15km -
Kreuziger looks very strong on the descent. The group of 6 is still there, with Rabottini hanging between them and the peloton, which is now 1’10 behind, mainly due to the efforts of Kreuziger.

Also, bad news! Kelderman manages to crash in the descent, and now has to fight his way back to the peloton, which won’t be easy at all.
12.5km -
While the leaders accelerate on the speedbump, Betancur can barely follow and nearly has to drop from the group, it seems. Those 6 seem to battle for the win today, but Betancur doesn’t look good.
11km -
A group of 6 forms in the peloton, at the very end of the hill. Rabottini, Evans(BMC), Niemiec(LAM), Bardet(ALM), Porte(SKY) and a tired looking Kiserlovski(RLT) are the guys in there.
9km -
The riders have to tackle a short flat part now, before the downhill continues. They are 1’16 in front of the peloton, which now includes the 6 attackers again. This means that one of these 6 will be the winner today. Betancur and Hesjedal look like the best sprinters here, while Purito has a good chance as well. Nibali is the best downhiller of the 6 though, and might be making the difference in the upcoming downhill. The final kilometer will be flat though.
5km -
Under the 5km banner, the gap is around 50 seconds. The 3 best downhillers are at the front now, but the rest can hang on.
3600m -
OH NO! NIBALI CRASHES! This is the worst moment there is for a crash! Nobody else is involved, but for Nibali, this is a major bummer. Ironically, the best man downhill crashes.
The gap is at ’51 seconds, but Nibali might not even make that group, if he stands up, that is, because he looks hurt.
2000m -
We shouldn’t forget that there’s still a fight for the win going on! Kreuziger, the worst sprinter, starts the sprint, with Hesjedal in his wheel.
Also, very bad news for Nibali! He couldn’t follow the peloton and will therefore lose lots of time. What a major setback for Astana that is…
1000m -
Rodriguez charges, and takes Betancur with him in his wheel. Those two look the most fresh!
500m -
Betancur coming sideways, but Purito still looking strong!
200m -
As long as Purito won’t collapse, he will take it! Betancur and he already took a small gap on the others now! Will he take it?!
Finish -

Oh yes he does! Betancur finishes second, obviously, and Quintana finishes 3rd with a strong finishing sprint, which also closed the gap.

56 seconds later, it’s Evans winning the sprint, ahead of Moreno and Boasson Hagen(!).

Nibali finishes with Agnoli and Vrecer, at 2 minutes.
Kelderman did even worse, though he did a fairly good downhill after the crash. He wins the sprint in his own group, but it’s nearly at 3 minutes.

Rodriguez is of course still the GC leader. Quintana is second, and Porte is third despite losing 57 seconds today. Nibali is now at 7th, which means he’s not chanceless to get a Top 3, that is, if he recovers properly.
Rodriguez has the KoM and points jersey as well.


Results:

1	Joaquím Rodríguez	Katusha Team	4h50'43
2	Carlos Betancur	AG2R La Mondiale	s.t.
3	Nairo Quintana	Movistar Team	s.t.
4	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin - Sharp	s.t.
5	Roman Kreuziger	Team Saxo - Tinkoff	s.t.
6	Cadel Evans	BMC Racing Team	+ 57
7	Daniel Moreno	Katusha Team	s.t.
8	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Sky Procycling	s.t.
9	Oreste Ghita	Team Argos - Shimano	s.t.
10	Dominik Nerz	BMC Racing Team	s.t.

GC

1	Joaquím Rodríguez	Katusha Team	9h37'35
2	Nairo Quintana	Movistar Team	+ 31
3	Richie Porte	Sky Procycling	+ 1'39
4	Roman Kreuziger	Team Saxo - Tinkoff	+ 2'00
5	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin - Sharp	s.t.
6	Carlos Betancur	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 2'18
7	Vincenzo Nibali	Astana Pro Team	+ 2'53
8	Michele Scarponi	Lampre - Merida	+ 3'11
9	Cristiano De las Campos	Euskaltel - Euskadi	+ 3'57
10	Cadel Evans	BMC Racing Team	+ 4'23

Points

1	Joaquím Rodríguez	Katusha Team	25	40
2	Nairo Quintana	Movistar Team	16	28
3	Carlos Betancur	AG2R La Mondiale	20	26
4	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin - Sharp	13	20
5	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Sky Procycling	8	20
6	Roman Kreuziger	Team Saxo - Tinkoff	11	19
7	Richie Porte	Sky Procycling	0	17
8	Tony Martin	Omega Pharma - Quick•Step Cycling Team	0	15
9	Cadel Evans	BMC Racing Team	10	12
10	Jens Voigt	RadioShack - Leopard	0	12

KoM

1	Joaquím Rodríguez	Katusha Team	8	20
2	Jens Voigt	RadioShack - Leopard	0	20
3	Amets Txurruka	Caja Rural - Seguros RGA	0	15
4	Nairo Quintana	Movistar Team	6	14
5	Roman Kreuziger	Team Saxo - Tinkoff	12	14
6	Matteo Rabottini	Vini Fantini - Selle Italia	6	12
7	Vincenzo Nibali	Astana Pro Team	4	10
8	Brian Bulgac	Lotto Belisol	0	10
9	Robert Vrecer	Euskaltel - Euskadi	5	5
10	Johnny Hoogerland	Vacansoleil - DCM Pro Cycling Team	5	5

U25: Quintana
Team: Sky

The pace in the peloton still is tough, but there were not a lot of causalities. A peloton of 166 riders remains, with only some sprinters missing the cut. Here’s Feunard(CJR) in one of the last wheels.
The escapees still have 2’50 on the peloton.