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ICL19 - Previews & Statistics
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Posted on 24-11-2024 00:09
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Ollfardh
Top  #181 Print Post
Posted on 10-11-2020 08:14
A very simple but very correct analysis of our team. The leaders just weren't doing it, especially Van Poppel, while no one of the other riders stepped up to compensate.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Shonak
Top  #182 Print Post
Posted on 10-11-2020 09:14
Thanks for the wrap up, very interesting to read - there were definitely some odd happenings (e.g. Ludvigsson emergence for Alitalia) but overall I think it was quite representative overall.
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/team.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2017/manager.png
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
 
Ripley
Top  #183 Print Post
Posted on 10-11-2020 11:56
And here's the scatter chart 2019 for WT and CT, AVG against prestige points. It shows roughly what you can expect from the AVG of the riders. I've put names to a few data points, those to the left of the trend line performed well for their AVG, those on the right less so. Mohoric in a league of his own.

i.imgur.com/qc3zcaf.png
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
df_Trek
Top  #184 Print Post
Posted on 10-11-2020 12:18
nice to see Declercq somehow highlightening, the eternal domestique irl revenge in icl!
My Stages

2017 Patch for PCM14
 
Bikex
Top  #185 Print Post
Posted on 10-11-2020 13:27
That's a really great graphic. Mohoric the only real outlier.
It also shows that riders with AVGs between 74 and 78 tend to do better in CT, maybe the scoring in lower positions in WT races should be increased a little bit?

Also congrats on being the best newly promoted team, didn't expect Aviva to beat Vittel. Smile
 
Ollfardh
Top  #186 Print Post
Posted on 10-11-2020 13:38
Not really needing another graph to show how average our season was Pfft
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Ripley
Top  #187 Print Post
Posted on 10-11-2020 14:19
Bikex wrote:
That's a really great graphic. Mohoric the only real outlier.
It also shows that riders with AVGs between 74 and 78 tend to do better in CT, maybe the scoring in lower positions in WT races should be increased a little bit?

Also congrats on being the best newly promoted team, didn't expect Aviva to beat Vittel. Smile

I didn't expect to beat Vittel, either. Obviously, I had a lot of luck.

As for the points scale, I'm not sure it needs changing, but I will say this: I think it's a open secret that riders on a wage between, say, 300 and 400, are seldomly worth their wage in the WT, they don't score well. And partly it is the aggressive points scale. I was thinking that after the Deutschland Tour. Thomas was my captain, for from ideal, but he rode as well as he could for 8 straight days and finished 25th overall. And that's worth 6 points in the end, which might as well be no points in the bigger picture.

And on the other hand you have the points from the KOM ranking, and those are pretty big points and a lot more dependent on simple luck. Like Stannard happened to escape in the Eneco Tour on the only stage which even offered KOM points, he scored the most on that day, boom, 110 points in the bag. You can plan for the GC, and for the green and white jerseys, but you can't plan for the KOM jersey.

But maybe it's for the best, a bit of randomness, a chance for weaker teams to score big...
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Ripley
Top  #188 Print Post
Posted on 12-11-2020 10:31
Since people just love statistics, here are the teams ranked by the ratio of points scored by their best rider. Not quite as "bad" as last season, when Aru and Herklotz scored over 60% of the points for their teams. This time Herklotz scored only 50% of the total points for Bosch, closely followed by Contador and Fenn:

TeamTop ScorerRatio
BoschHerklotz0.50
SevillaContador0.49
Cymru WalesFenn0.49
CeramicaAru0.44
SwedbankSerry0.43
SpecializedFroome0.40
CCCVan Garderen0.36
Wilier TriestinaMoser0.35
Cool RunningsBrenes0.35
EquinorGuardini0.34
Vittel - HavasKwiatkowski0.33
SuntoryBardet0.32
PostNLGeschke0.30
Santos - EuskadiWackermann0.30
LufthansaS. Yates0.30
Filliers - MoraVan Keirsbulck0.30
Shell Pro CyclingLanda0.29
Liberty SegurosBetancur0.29
SAP - BianchiNizzolo0.28
PeugeotBouhanni0.28
ItaloNibali0.28
KBC GodivaHenao0.27
AlitaliaDemare0.27
AllianzBarguil0.27
Pedal AfricaKudus0.26
Steelseries CTLander0.26
Credit SuisseVillella0.26
CarbonSportsSagan0.25
SugoiUrán0.25
SzczecinVakoc0.25
Grupo ArgosMohoric0.24
ICBCChoi0.24
AvivaMajka0.24
Project CumbriaEdmondson0.23
VisitUkraineKreuziger0.22
Balkan CyclingNerz0.22
TVMMollema0.21
Fox SportsGoss0.19
Brugse ZotHofland0.18
PolestarLudvigsson0.16
VegetaDomagalski0.15
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
df_Trek
Top  #189 Print Post
Posted on 12-11-2020 11:02
Satisfied by this last stat, the team was built right in this direction, this means that many of our riders didn't fail their role.
My Stages

2017 Patch for PCM14
 
Ripley
Top  #190 Print Post
Posted on 12-11-2020 11:27
And here's another table for you to study, only WT riders, though. I sorted them into wage bands, next column is the number of riders in the wage band, the third column is the number of riders in the band who managed a Pts/Wage ratio of over 1.0:

Band#> 1.0WagePoints
100832RamboudSuntory100110
105-150654ColombiniItalo120207
155-200534ArizabalSevilla200317
205-250484YifanItalo230320
255-300402CattenaoCredit300579
310-350386NavarroLiberty350585
360-400274PintzopolousItalo375736
405-5003011Tao HartAviva4101207
510-600185LudvigssonAlitalia5401708
615-7001610CoquardAllianz6251376
750-10001712CavendishSuntory8752148
1025-13801211MohoricArgos11753265
14001111ContadorSevilla17001938

It's noticable that up to a wage of 400 very few riders score more points than they cost and most miss a 1.0 by a long way. While there is just one rider earning over 1000 who didn't score his wage in points (Boasson Hagen).
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Shonak
Top  #191 Print Post
Posted on 12-11-2020 12:32
Thanks Rip. Italo with quite some bang for the bucket. Navarrowith a honorable mention. Bertie worth his wage even after the recent success wave and wage drama.
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/team.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2017/manager.png
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
Top  #192 Print Post
Posted on 12-11-2020 23:56
Ripley wrote:

It's noticable that up to a wage of 400 very few riders score more points than they cost and most miss a 1.0 by a long way. While there is just one rider earning over 1000 who didn't score his wage in points (Boasson Hagen).


Which seems to say that that these 1000+ riders are underpaid. Guess I should be planning some steals.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
Bikex
Top  #193 Print Post
Posted on 13-11-2020 00:12
Yeah it looks like that or it is an indicator that lower tier riders are paid to much which means the min wage should be adjusted to account for that. Or it shows again that the WT scoring system should be updated Grin

Anyways, happy to see three of my cobbles talents featured here, seems like participating in quite a few CT cobble races paid off. Smile
 
df_Trek
Top  #194 Print Post
Posted on 13-11-2020 07:50
imo there's nothing wrong in this, like in irl you build the team around the leader, If you look how many points score for example Roglic and Gesink, you can see this difference if not more!
better domestique = higher salary
My Stages

2017 Patch for PCM14
 
Ripley
Top  #195 Print Post
Posted on 13-11-2020 08:23
It's true that no matter how scarily much you have to pay a true captain, he nearly always delivers. Though if you look at the points/wage table, the expensive captains aren't the very best deals.
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Ripley
Top  #196 Print Post
Posted on 13-11-2020 09:54
The same wage band table for the CT:

Band#> 1.0NameTeamWagePts
100955KonwaSzczecin100156
105-150714BozicVegeta140208
155-200565VarroVegeta190279
210-250475NurICBC240598
260-300408ChoiICBC290693
305-3505012GeschkePostNL320902
360-4002311ChavesSantos380786
410-4501411OspinaSantos4201237
460-50096NizzoloSAP4801545
510-600107WackermannSantos5901590
650-78076FennCymru7501656
890+65AruCeramica18452533

The two riders who did not manage a 1.0 pts/w ratio in the top two brackets are the big talents Spagnoli and Albini who earn too much because of steal attempts. But in the CT most riders earning 400+ manage to score the necessary points. The top bracket is a bit wide: Moser and Rui Costa only barely got past 1.0, Froome and Aru have 1.36 and 1.37, Herklotz 1.51.
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
SSJ2Luigi
Top  #197 Print Post
Posted on 17-11-2020 20:49
LET"S GOOOOOOOOOOO

got predicted like bottom off the table and finish 6th

IN YO FACES Banana
 
Ripley
Top  #198 Print Post
Posted on 10-12-2020 13:07
I felt like creating another useless table, so here it is - a messy table so big I had to split it into two: This is the prestige points 2019 scored by all WT riders sorted by their internal team rankings.

Team12345678910
Grupo32652842126911291068912686655564531
Italo29391953736730644498384326321320
Carbon2400235712111010526521362275168122
Allianz2417171313761163660364320254239211
Suntory24612148565492370339199137111110
Lufthansa22302099805727264226153116114103
Peugeot208114181221731294288228180175150
Aviva175712071067486402366290251208194
Liberty21092058680585352209147134123105
Alitalia1934170810731008383358134124122113
Vittel21921689611325248244225193184143
Filliers19361632530446395324215171159136
Sevilla2938111231724920518716610410284
TVM1081908803351251230229205176160
Credit1277779581579306264264255107103
CCC1567687482301267222145142139133
Sugoi10277675655552641561121039388
Ukraine73661934330729223618910410369

Team111213141516171819202122232425
Grupo1361177154473729262615109741
Italo30328620620011510196806255412523122
Carbon12175595250484532323028161413
Allianz1318270581352
Suntory10299919081816247452655
Lufthansa103999777686438323125106
Peugeot118113887846393836181513125
Aviva187157128127120957060393432292716
Liberty8883828275716766626146191210
Alitalia886057522018443
Vittel1231117873392926118651
Filliers13312297715446433574
Sevilla776260525143353429181383
TVM14512611672656463453527181510
Credit94916435282822141387
CCC755334333223201054
Sugoi655352493832261914113111
Ukraine5554545130282726242421136

Grupo Argos dominates the top 10 table, except for Allianz's 3rd and 4th best scorers who did better than the Argos counterparts. Outside the top 10 Italo moves to the front until Liberty Seguros and Aviva score their "victories".
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Bikex
Top  #199 Print Post
Posted on 12-12-2020 15:05
Cool statistics thanks Ripley. Shows how dominant Argos really were. Their 10th best finisher still got more points than the 6th best of all other teams.
 
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