Tour of America - Discussion
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redordead |
Posted on 26-05-2022 09:36
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Just one more
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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whitejersey |
Posted on 26-05-2022 09:39
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Nemolito wrote:
This is what the points per team should (more or less) look like just before the final stage. Tomorrow cunego might be able to give us a full ranking of the ToA
1 | Kraftwerk | 367 | 2 | Duolingo | 153 | 3 | HelloFresh | 145 | 4 | Carlsberg | 130 | 5 | Strava | 114 | 6 | Carrefour | 105 | 7 | Indosat | 104 | 8 | Cedevita | 100 | 9 | Pas Normal | 91 | 10 | Glanbia | 81 | 11 | Project: Africa | 80 | 12 | Lierse | 75 | 13 | BNZ | 72 | 14 | Tryg | 67 | 15 | McCormick | 67 | 16 | Eurosport | 65 | 17 | Podium Ambition | 39 | 18 | Sauber | 32 | 19 | Voyagin | 26 | 20 | Volcanica | 20 |
This just kinda shows how poor our final week was on the stage perspective 20 points in a week of racing. Tbf we're still the third highest scoring team here so that's a positive thing. Thanks for the reports and massive congrats to D2B on another great ToA.
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Shonak |
Posted on 26-05-2022 10:51
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Thanks, Azman doing great on that stage 20, collecting some points in the KoM competition to come up to third, almost 2nd. Thanks for the great coverage, was unfortuntely on a business trip the last few days so also have to catchup on some reports
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 10:12
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Shonak |
Posted on 26-05-2022 10:55
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Wow the fuck Azman on stage 14
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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Eden95 |
Posted on 26-05-2022 12:18
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Fun stage. Audacious from Warchol to keep trying, good to see. A shame he went a little too hard and couldn’t keep up in the last km. Second is great, but without consistent stage results it’s probably still not going to be a good point return and we’ll be no better off.
Novak never seems to stop attacking, probably to his detriment in the end. Very surprised to see him finish behind the likes of Aru and Potocki. A shame Carapaz finishes on the podium considering he’s on a dead team.
Thanks for the reports
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett
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baseballlover312 |
Posted on 26-05-2022 12:26
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Why were we pacing?
Please. Someone who knows PCM 20 explain it to me. Why do we pace? Why are we having our best climber pace a peloton of 70 all day when our best rider on GC is 8th and not on a good day? Someone explain it. Please. This is a legitimate question. I don't understand the game mechanic causing this to happen, but it's not the first time it's happened this year, or this race. It happens constantly. It needs to stop, and I want to do what I can as a manager to plan in a way where it doesn't happen. So any information on how I can do that would be much appreciated.
Not much left to say. Eg had the disastrous day I feared, aided greatly by the lobotomy his sporting directors must have received before the race. He loses everything gained in the TT in one fell swoop. Lessen learned - pure climbers are the way to go. Don't bother with stage racers in a GT like this. I was skeptical already going in, but I had my fears validated here.
Eg having a a few bad days is whatever. He's a 77 climber. 13th isn't that bad. I just can't get over that guys like Potocki and Aru didn't have a single bad day the whole race, and in fact consistently overperformed day after day. It doesn't add up. Again, I benefitted similarly with Warbasse in 2019, so I'm not saying it's unfair. It's just inexplicable when we turn off overall fitness differences specifically to avoid that.
Anyway, glad this GC mess is finally over. Our best placed in 13th, our top 5 favorite in 19th. Behind not only Garby, but several climbers significantly worse than him. We came into this race looking for a prayer to get us back into the PCT top 10. Instead, we're likely to fail our Top 15 standings goal now and end up 0/5 for the year.
At least ultimately the GC podium ended up being reasonable, although Ranaweera in 10th is still a travesty,
Thanks for the amazing reports Nemo! Sorry I've been so sour in the comments, but it's just been hard to say much positive with how dumb my team acts. They really have been incredible, and as much as I've been disappointed in my team, I've never once been disappointed with your coverage.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 26-05-2022 12:41
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Another good outing from Min, consolidating his top10. Just a shame that Nerz took enough points to overtake Christian in the points rankings. You just can't get enough, can you Dave?
Anyway deserving winner in Carapaz, good ride from him.
And now onto the finale. Thanks for all the work put into this Nemo!
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whitejersey |
Posted on 26-05-2022 12:50
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baseballlover312 wrote:
Eg having a a few bad days is whatever. He's a 77 climber. 13th isn't that bad. I just can't get over that guys like Potocki and Aru didn't have a single bad day the whole race, and in fact consistently overperformed day after day. It doesn't add up. Again, I benefitted similarly with Warbasse in 2019, so I'm not saying it's unfair. It's just inexplicable when we turn off overall fitness differences specifically to avoid that.
I feel your frustrations mate. But Potocki had multiple bad days and lost like 1 minute for no apparent reason on a couple of stages. Not saying he didn't overperform like crazy because he did but there were a couple of weaker stages in there from him especially in the last week, just none of them as disastrous as Eg's.
Also Potocki's been having one of those seasons that are pretty much unexplainable for a rider with his stats, massive overperformance, no clue why PCM20 likes him so much.
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DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 26-05-2022 17:10
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Very impressed again by Mozaemi as a domestique. Without him and Koch I think the result would have been a lot closer, one or more of the attacks would have stuck.
Another solid ride from Nerz gets him another podium and 3rd on points, not expecting him to keep that though.
Thanks for another great report of an active stage Nemo and congrats to the_hoyle in absentia.
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valverde321 |
Posted on 26-05-2022 18:43
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We’ll been dreaming of a Top 5 finish with just one stage to go but a 6 minute loss was certainly not expected. Quite disappointing but a Top 3 would have been an over performance as well.
Not that my team deserves huge over performances or anything but we’ve just had no luck at all, all year now, and no real aggression.
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Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 27-05-2022 04:05
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Well that wasn't great, Sepp clearly paying for his poor recovery as he manages to drop 2 places despite a significant time advantage at the start of the day. I have decided my rationale for acceptance is that last year I could see him finishing anything from 4th to 10th and we got 4th, this year that range was like 12th to 20th and we got 22nd. So like Bbl I can only complain about the outcome so much. The only rider he finished behind I can say he absolutely should have beaten is Girdlestone. The rest I could see him losing to if things weren't going our way, which they weren't.
Rest of this is me going overboard analytically with some thoughts on whether the AI worked, so going to stick it in a spoiler.
Spoiler As with the TDF I decided to test whether the stats predicted the outcome. Off the bat I would expect it to be less true here because the pool of riders in contention at the ToA is effectively much deeper since as a C1 race it is not selecting any riders from the very top of the curve.
And indeed that is the case. I ended up looking at 4 ways of ranking riders.
The stats below are ranks based on
OVL
TDF - matching what I used in that post - MO + TT + RS+ RC
TDF Mod - drop TT add HI based on observing the outcomes
Custom - my blend where I sought to explain these results, it is MT/HI/RC, with MT weighted heaviest
Ave - Average of the four
I looked at the top 20 finishers plus Kuss (for personal reasons) and minus Girdlestone. I think this is a pretty good representation of the top contenders. There are a few others like Koch and Pantano Gomez who's stats put them in this frame but they were both clearly working for top contenders and would be expected to underperform. I also excluded a couple of all-rounders who made the preview, like Roe and Novak, because I think TT just didn't prove to be that important in this parcours and without that stat those two are not competitive.
| Current GC | OVL Rank | TDF | TDF Mod | Custom | Ave Rank | Diff From Ave | Nerz | 1 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 7.3 | 6.3 | Warchol | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | Carapaz | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | Potocki | 4 | 19 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 15.8 | 11.8 | Aru | 5 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 9.8 | 4.8 | Novak | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2.3 | -3.8 | Min | 7 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 8.0 | 1.0 | Denifl | 8 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 2 | 13.0 | 5.0 | Chamorro | 9 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 14 | 12.0 | 3.0 | Ranaweera | 10 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 3.8 | -6.3 | Lunke | 11 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 7.5 | -3.5 | Garby | 12 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 10.0 | -2.0 | Eg | 13 | 17 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 13.3 | 0.3 | Gilanipoor | 14 | 20 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 18.8 | 4.8 | Grmay | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 13.0 | -2.0 | Elissonde | 16 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 7.0 | -9.0 | Azman | 17 | 8 | 21 | 12 | 20 | 15.3 | -1.8 | Diaz | 18 | 18 | 11 | 18 | 19 | 16.5 | -1.5 | Warbasse | 19 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 10.3 | -8.8 | Hoem | 20 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 19.0 | -1.0 | Kuss | 22 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16.0 | -6.0 | | Correl | 0.554 | 0.393 | 0.416 | 0.643 | 0.605 |
First none of the correlations are that great. Not surprisingly the custom model is the best although the average does OK. So there is clearly some randomization in the results (or some stat influence I have missed). However, I think that has to be taken in context of how close the riders are. If you look at the stats there are roughly two clustered groups, and most of the top cluster finished in the top and vice versa. So in that sense riders probably finished in the set of riders they should have although their positions within that set were hard to explain.
Two of the biggest underperformers, Warbasse and Elissonde were part of leadership duo's, in the latter case maybe Elissonde's support help explain Potocki's over performance. In the former both the AI's choice of leader and the value of using the other in support seem questionable.
Ranaweera and Kuss were underperformers (Kuss apparently should have finished 16th). Nerz and Aru clear over performers.
Denifil and Novak both have one outlier stat (low RS and TT, respectively). Neither of those values are in the custom blend because overall they don't seem to have much explanatory value. But I think in the case of outlier values, they matter, so these two riders have significant variation from their predictions which all either under or over weight these two stats.
Most of the rest are within a few places of their average prediction.
One thought I have is that the fairly large daily form may interact with recovery and explain why certain riders do consistently well or poorly. A rider who has a bad form uses more energy to stay in the race and then starts worse the next day. And if you are poor recovery that would be worse, so some early bad days snowball for a poor recovery rider like Kuss while the opposites happens for a better recovery rider like Potocki.
In response to BBl's comment: I think the limited influence of TT was not surprising. There weren't that many TT KMs, the 2nd one came very late when recovery would have been a major factor and in contrast there was a lot of selective climbing. I think the ToA has always been a climbers race, I wanted it to have a little more TT this year. In retrospect I wish I had put the second TT earlier and made it a little longer. But this was never going to be a TT dominant race.
I can't explain who chases. Why was McCormick chasing, we were even less suited than Carlsberg. Generally I think the chasing is weird. It seems to me the leader's team should be the default chaser but instead they only chase when the lead is directly threatened and then some random team gets stuck chasing the rest of the time.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
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cunego59 |
Posted on 27-05-2022 09:39
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There will be full ranking updates early next week when September is complete, but by request, here are the ToA points:
Kraftwerk Man Machine | 617 | HelloFresh | 315 | Indosat Ooredoo | 255 | Duolingo | 250 | Project: Africa | 239 | Carrefour - ESPN | 230 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 198 | Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller | 196 | Eurosport x GCN | 178 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 168 | Cedevita | 165 | Strava | 165 | McCormick Pro Cycling | 117 | Sauber Petronas Racing | 99 | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | 95 | Tryg - Ritter Sport | 90 | BNZ-Superhero Racing | 86 | Voyagin - Bird | 71 | Podium Ambition | 40 | Volcanica - Fox | 21 |
Kraftwerk can do no wrong in this race it seems!
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redordead |
Posted on 27-05-2022 09:42
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Saber saved his worst for last
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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whitejersey |
Posted on 27-05-2022 09:48
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cunego59 wrote:
There will be full ranking updates early next week when September is complete, but by request, here are the ToA points:
Kraftwerk Man Machine | 617 | HelloFresh | 315 | Indosat Ooredoo | 255 | Duolingo | 250 | Project: Africa | 239 | Carrefour - ESPN | 230 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 198 | Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller | 196 | Eurosport x GCN | 178 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 168 | Cedevita | 165 | Strava | 165 | McCormick Pro Cycling | 117 | Sauber Petronas Racing | 99 | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | 95 | Tryg - Ritter Sport | 90 | BNZ-Superhero Racing | 86 | Voyagin - Bird | 71 | Podium Ambition | 40 | Volcanica - Fox | 21 |
Kraftwerk can do no wrong in this race it seems!
Very impressive from Kraftwerk once again! Also happy with our final scoring, 15 pprd is a solid haul and it has been a blast to follow, thanks for the reports to Nemo!
Willl look forward to the rankings update! Can't believe we're edging close to the end of the season already!
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TheManxMissile |
Posted on 27-05-2022 10:27
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So close to 2pprd
A stage podium from Gayral being a (bittersweet) highlight, and three other stage Top5's (and a few Tpo10's that i don't track). Given we sent a team of entirely unmaxed youngsters, not only youngsters but entirely debut pros, that return is given a much brighter context.
Regular breakaway appearances, often with two or three guys battling away. Lots of TV time for the sponsors.
Split between always active Croes, 2nd placer Gayral, and shock TT rider Hennis for the T3A rider of the race. But across the whole squad it was positive with Akil Campbell being the only real struggler. Positive signs for the future, even if this does now hammer the nail in the coffin of the long expected relegation.
Can't wait to come back next season!
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Croatia14 |
Posted on 27-05-2022 10:29
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Great coverage Nemolito. Loved it as a neutral fan, especially seeing Potocki and Novak do so well and Kraftwerk once again dominating "their race"
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baseballlover312 |
Posted on 27-05-2022 12:34
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Amazing coverage all the way Nemolito! Every stage was perfectly reported, with amazing detail and consistency. Thank you!
Not much left to say for us. Bouglas didn't place today, but did enough to tie for 2nd on points, which is a good result for him with his skillset. Eg in 13th was about right, as Ulrich's formulas noted. Sterobo did his job, Roe got a few placings. We won a couple of stages and placed in others.
Less than 10 PpRD is very bad. But hey, I guess Warbasse scored around 50 fewer GC points than I expected, so it's not like a 7th place would have put us in the promotion fight. We needed stage points for that too, and those were always unlikely with his skillset.
Ulrich is right that TT was never going to be especially impactful going in. As I said, I worried about that and expected it to some degree. It just hurts to see Warbasse so much worse on the climbs, and really, just so stupid in everything he did. After the first week or so we held 3rd and 4th on GC. Almost every move we made after that seemed like an intentional attempt to destroy our race however possible.
Congrats to Kraftwerk, who were rewarded for bringing an A-team here, and congrats to everyone else who did well.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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hillis91 |
Posted on 27-05-2022 12:50
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Adding myself to choire: Great coverage Nemolito.
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Shonak |
Posted on 27-05-2022 13:08
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Tour de France Champion
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Thanks for the great coverage also from my side Nemolito. Strava duo trying to get a third stage win, Colbrelli also coming close to it but Haller in a world of his own. Nice at least for Colbrelli to sneak some extra points out of it by getting a bit higher in the points competition. Was fun to be here, and quite some nice points eventually. But shows again that we really need some GC riders lol
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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Laurens147 |
Posted on 27-05-2022 14:04
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Thanks Nemo for the great reports, very nice to follow!
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
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