The 2018 ICL Vuelta route is the actual 2005 Vuelta route which was won by Roberto Heras... well, he won (his 4th Vuelta), then he was disqualified for EPO use but somehow got away with a claim of mishandled samples and in 2012 the Spanish Supreme Court upheld that reversal so Heras is officially the winner again, hooray. Oh man, real cycling is depressing, thankfully, the ICL is clean.
The route in short: Eight flat stages, just three hilly stages, seven mountain stages, the first five with mountaintop finishes, and three individual time trials totalling 94.2 km. This makes it a route for real stage racers, pure climbers will lose a lot of time in the long time trials. Also, unusual for a Vuelta, it's a good course for sprinters, with at least one of the three hilly stages also predicted to end in a mass sprint.
Let's hear it straight from the horse's mouth, this is what Roberto Heras said about the route after the presentation: "I think there are three stages that will prove to be crucial. Ordino-Arcalís, Lados de Covadonga and Pajares [stages 10, 14 and 15] are going to be the hardest." We'll see if that holds true for the ICL edition. But let's start with the sprinters:
AVG
FL
M
HI
TT
PR
CB
SP
AC
DH
FT
ST
RS
RC
Kittel
CarbonSports
80.6
79
66
72
71
74
64
82
82
69
69
76
73
78
Coquard
Allianz–BMW
77.9
76
62
69
65
71
71
79
80
77
68
78
74
75
Ewan
CarbonSports
76.8
76
66
72
69
71
68
78
78
75
68
74
70
73
Appollonio
Santos–Euskadi
76.4
74
65
71
64
65
66
78
78
70
62
71
68
70
Ciolek
Pedal Africa
76.9
74
66
75
64
66
65
77
78
76
65
75
71
71
Matthews
Suntory
76.8
75
61
74
69
70
61
77
78
76
66
76
70
75
Modolo
Ceramica
75.6
74
60
68
58
63
61
77
77
74
70
70
66
68
Kruopis
Sevilla Cycling
75.3
74
59
68
62
64
66
77
76
66
67
69
66
69
The clear favourite for mass sprints is CarbonSports' Marcel Kittel. Behind him it's a dense field, some are better uphill than others but that probably won't make much of a difference, looking at the stage profiles:
The list includes the officially hilly stage 19 to Alconbendas, the only two climbs (cats 2 and 3) are in the first half of the stage, the second half is completely flat. There's little to say otherwise about these stages, breakaways will have a hard time keeping the chasing peloton at bay. In the real 2005 edition, Petacchi dominated the sprints and was able to win the stages 3, 4, 8, 12 and 21. Kittel would surely love to repeat that feat.
Two flat stages with a slight kink: 5 and 16
Stage 5 includes a late cat. 3 hill, peaking only about 12 km from the finish line. It's the Alto de Castillo, 3km @ 7.6%. Sprinters with problems uphill might suffer if the pace is high, even a late attack could be promising. Stage 16 is generally straightforward, but there is a steep section inside the final kilometre which in real life was enough for Bettini to snatch victory from Petacchi.
The remaining two hilly stages: 2 and 13
Stage 2 features a late a cat. 2 climb, the Alto de San Jeronimo, starting just after the late last intermediate sprint. It's not the most difficult slope, officially 10km @ 3.1%, but that includes a dip inear the top. After that it's about 15 km downhill to the finish line. Somebody from the early breakaway might have the legs to finish off the stage, but uphill attacks are very likely and any gap at the top would be valuable, since it's downhill from there.
Stage 13 ends with a steep climb, the Santuario de la Bien Aparecida, PCM rates it 3.9km @ 6.9%. In 2005 the stage went to the breakaway and was the first professional victory for the man who's now the oldest rider in the whole ICL. Quiz time! Just kidding, the answer of course is Samuel Sanchez! He won here because Mauricio Ardila zabel'd himself, thinking the finish line was 100 metres earlier. With a few more climbs in the finale this is a chance for the breakaway in the ICL, too, and maybe we'll see some late GC action. Which brings us to the GC favourites.
AVG
FL
M
HI
TT
PR
CB
SP
AC
DH
FT
ST
RS
RC
Contador
CarbonSports
81.7
74
82
79
77
75
65
59
79
76
83
76
76
79
Nibali
Italo–Ventilair
81.7
74
82
79
77
77
60
65
74
84
75
78
74
79
Herrada
Liberty Seguros
80.5
74
81
79
76
75
63
66
75
73
75
75
72
76
Majka
Santos–Euskadi
80.5
74
80
79
75
74
60
65
74
69
73
77
73
78
Tejay
Bunzl–Centrica
79.6
74
79
77
78
78
63
64
74
73
71
75
73
79
Porte
Lufthansa
79.1
72
79
76
77
77
62
62
69
65
69
74
72
77
Pinot
Allianz–BMW
79.3
71
79
77
74
73
60
68
77
72
79
76
73
78
Elissonde
Sevilla Cycling
78.1
74
79
76
73
72
67
64
75
72
75
72
69
76
Boswell
TVM Cycling
77.7
72
79
76
70
68
63
65
73
72
78
74
70
72
Mollema
TVM Cycling
79.4
70
78
79
73
73
63
68
76
71
72
77
73
75
The 2018 Vuelta has certainly attracted an illustrious field of stage racers. At the top, Contador and Nibali look evenly matched, even their support is very similar. On paper Herrada completes the podium, being marginally better than Majka on climbs and against the clock. Van Garderen and Porte are both even better against the clock which might just give them the edge, and many more riders are waiting in the wings, ready to exploit any weaknesses.
Merhawi Kudus from Pedal Africa is the top favourite to win the U25 ranking. He does have some competition, especially CarbonSports' Engeldinger is nearly his equal, but Kudus has the advantage of being the GC leader for his team, while Engeldinger and others like Ceramica's Colombo and Bunzl's Geoghegan Hart will probably have to work for their team captains.
The first five of these all come with a mountaintop finish, promising time gaps among the GC contenders. Stage 6 shouldn't be underestimated, two climbs in the finale with only a very short descent between them, the San Rafael (9.5km @ 4.8%) and then up to the ski station in Valdelinares (8.4km @ 6.8%). Probably the GC contenders will wait for the last kilometres, but there's the chance of more dramatic action if somebody dares to attack further out.
Overall, stage 10 is more demanding, the first of the trio Heras pointed out. A tough cat. 2 followed by a cat. 1 in the first third, then a breather for the finale with two climbs in quick succession. First the Collet de Montaup (15.4km @ 5.9%) and finishing with the climb to the Andorran ski station Ordino Arcalis (10.9km @ 6.9%). Stage 11 features four climbs throughout the 178 km, one cat. 1, three cat. 2, before we hit the irregular final climb, once more to a ski station, this time in Cerler. From the previous peak and descent it's about 1000 metres of climbing in the final 30 km, with the actual final climb 13.7km @ 5.5%. But don't be fooled by the low average percentage, because there are two small descents on the climb, with max slopes reaching up to 13.8%.
But the longest final climbs come on stages 14 and 15, the two stages look very similar, both with a few smaller climbs throughout the day before hitting the final wall. On stage 14, it's the climb to Lagos de Covadonga, 14.7km @ 6.5% and once more, this includes a couple of short descents, so it's a real beast. The Valgrande Pajares, on stage 15 doesn't have those irregularities, and isn't quite so difficult but a little longer, rated 15.7km @ 6.1%.
The last two mountain stages are also tough and offer plenty of KoM points but both ends after descents and a short flat section. Stage 18 around Avila is a tough final test with several pretty big climbs throughout the stage, the peloton can become very small and if anybody's tired he might drop out of contention.
Alone against the clock: Stages 1, 9 and 20
The Vuelta starts with a hilly prologue of 7.2 km in beautiful Granada, a lap around the Alhambra. It features a 2 km hill with a 6.9% slope, so it's going to be pretty selective considering the short distance. The other two time trials are mostly flat. The longer one in Lloret del Mar features a couple of small hills, including the Alto de Tossa, which briefly ramps up to 9.2%. Altogether 600 metres accumulated height gained on the day. On stage 20, the final GC test, it's just 240 height gained across the 40 km distance.
I'll let Oscar Sevilla summarise the route: "I think that the first week in my region and in Castille La Mancha will be difficult because of the wind and the famous abanicos (echelons) of La Mancha. That should make things pretty complicated. Then we will have a difficult time trial. After that, the race will head into the mountains of Andorra, which are as hard and difficult as you might want. But I think it will be Asturias where things will really start to be settled, in La Bien Aparecida and in Lagos de Covadonga. As we head towards the end, towards Avila, and then to the time trial from Guadalajara to Alcalá de Henares, it is here where the final winner of the Vuelta a España will be decided."
Needless to say a big race for Appo and Majka plus some actual breakaways for once from our mountain team is the minimum - let's go for glory in our home GT and get bucketloads of points or else
Absolutely digging the look of the course overview and race preview Ripley, will read it all through properly before the big race, thanks a bunch!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Vuelt has been Liberty's homefront for the past 4 years: 2-2-1-1. <3 Talk about conistency. I very much hope that we can keep this streak alive and that Herrada gets another podium.
Competition is much stronger in the Vuelta than in Tour, especially with Majka, Pinot and Elissonde around. However Herrada has gained major experience with his podium in the Tour (let's pretend for story sake) and I am sure he'll be ready to match the competition again. His team is also more focused on the mountains this time around. All spanish of course. Had I know about Samu's first victory here, I would have selected him for this race.
Contador vs Nibali is the big fight. While Nibali was a bit of a late bloomer in ICL, when he got trained to MT82 his career really kickstarted and the big goal is now to make the Grand Slam of all 3 GTs happen, something that Contador has achieved a few months prior. It's a bit of an interesting mix, because Nibali really beat Contador twice to crumbs when it was all Big Four together in a race (Giro 16, Tour 17...) but seemed to have little chance in last year's Vuelta or the Giro 14. Going to be super interesting either way but I won't root for anybody else than Herrada, no offense.
Thank you for the excellent preview Ripley. Hopes are that Liberty Seguros will climb like Heras in 2005. Oddly enough, Heras was riding back theb for a certain spanish squad. I think the signs are clear.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
No mention for Dan Martin, who finished fourth last year. I know the route contains a lot more TT than last year but still I think he'll be able to ride top ten.
No mention for Dan Martin, who finished fourth last year. I know the route contains a lot more TT than last year but still I think he'll be able to ride top ten.
Definitely able to, by AVG he absolutely belongs in the top 10. However, apart from the 10 riders I featured there are also 6 other riders with his MON 77 and all of them clearly better at TTs (by 6 to 14 points). Martin's got the highest HIL stat of all riders, but the course just doesn't seem to favour it.
The expectations are sky high and we can only lose here. Contador probably top favourite thanks to better backup stats than Nibbles and Kittel the clear cut favourite for sprint stages. This might turn into a huge problem as we might be the main chaser on every single stage. And sharing leader duties means that none of them has real good support. While Kittel has a beasty leadout man in Ewan and also Willwohl, Kerby is the only primary support guy. And Contador has just three solid guys as support as well. If other teams arent willing to help then the breaks might be super succesful
Well, here we go, time for the second edition of Porte GT fail. My prediction, 13th place. Performance predictions, very good time-trials with sloppy climbing, just the usual Porte performance
Not sure why Porte is at this level but I guess it's the severe lack of acceleration. Despite his mountain stats, he wasn't particularly exciting in the CT either. So, I am more inclined to say that he just looks better on first sight than he actually is. Of course the crash in the TdF didn't help either, because while Froome is still treated by the AI as a favourite, Porte is likely to fall down from podium contender.
It'll be an exciting Vuelta nonetheless. Porte is surely going to challenge for the podium, as a former WC in Time Trials and the clear focus on mountains rather than hills.
Edited by Shonak on 12-04-2018 08:28
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Obviously all in at la Vuelta!!! Elsewhere I entered the wrong Canadian race, so no repeat for Paddy Bevin - maybe a chance for the double?
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Richmond seems to hard for us to get any decent result, Praha and Quebec we have some expectations, Top10 minimum. In the Tour of Britain I see Martin possibly in the podium, but I don't think he'll gain enough on Moser and Mohoric to defend himself in the hills, he's uncapable of beating them in a sprint and will be hard to counter their attacks.
Virginia Chrono Tour though is where the real fun will be, Martin raced perfectly in Sochi to a 4th wich included a big Mountain stage so he's very capable of riding at top-level even with WT competition. In the ITT's he may have a small advantage if he rides like he did in Denmark, but the TTT will be our weakness, he has good support but Alitalia, Bunzl and Sugoi seem to have the upper hand.
Well we're targeting winning the TTT WC and the Chrono des Nations, the first should be dificult but a place in the Podium would already be very impressive. Besides that, Tre Valle Varesine and Japan cup shouldn''t bring us many points, if any, but there's no pressure.
Vuelta a España 01.09 - 21.09
Course de la Paix 16.09 - 21.09
Quebec Sprint Challenge 23.09
Qinghai Lake Cycle Cup 25.09
World TTT Championships 24.10
