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#TheSound V3Issue5 Previews!
nacho63
Good read, can't wait to be able to assemble a team!
 
Heine
A great read, imo your best edition. Love the humour
 
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TheManxMissile
..:: The Sound ::..


Volume 3: Issue 5
Pre-Season Preview 2015


Includes
- Thoughts on Transfers
- Pro Tour Preview
- Pro Continental Preview
- Continental Preview

So for this Issue i'm not using the Newsletter format. It's too much work to condense down to fit into the space. Far too much stuff to cover i would need to add like 10 extra pages and i just don't fancy formating all that for a one off issue. Normalcy will be resumed for the next issue on that front. There will also be, hopefully, a pre-season Interview coming in the next two weeks as well talking about the game more generally than just team predicitions, so that'll be good. For the Previews i'm not going to go team-by-team but moreof an overall look. It'll make sense when you read it. Right, on with the issue!

Transfers Recap

Spoiler
I said before transfers, several times, that the top wages won't drop. It's nice to be proven right on something. Pluchkin smashes the old record and even the other big stage racers went to 1.4 mark and beyond. It's a massive gamble to spend that amount of money on one rider especially when they have quite a limited amount of race days. If any of Tenorio, Madrazo, Phinney and Pluchkin crash out of a GT then those teams are going to be right in the relegation battle.

Away from those super big names Free Agency wages did fall compared to previous season on the whole. There were still some big wages being forked out: 900k for Brajkovic and 625k for McCarthy in the PCT are big chunks of cap space. Even with the drop in wages they are still above what a Renewal wage will be. But we don't want that equal parity. And there were still plenty of riders that slipped through the cracks.

The new Transfer Tax was interesting and combined with the increased cost of training and the new restrictions there was a bit of a reduction in crazy trainings. Still we did have Van Stayen going to 76HL and there were some other big trainings taking place. The changes had the desired effect but i think could still go a step further and make top talents that bit more lucrative than they currently are.

Counting is still the biggest problem. You'd think everyone could add up to 8 but apparently not. And SN's changes to the "entry" process did a great job of tripping up even experienced managers. Ontop of that we had a reduction in the number of teams going over budget, with just Severstal losing out on Khripta (which i think should have been Mendes or Bole instead, but not my decision). That is a warning to those buying Ukrainian climbers from the Free Agency after Krasnoperov in 2014.

Somehow we lost another two teams during transfers, both from the CT. We'd all rather lose them now than mid-season but given the choice obviously we'd rather not lose them at all. But SN has laid down the law and managers beware that the Hammer can drop at any time if you're not meeting the requirements of the game.

Transfers was a huge success as always. Roturn was the man of the two weeks as he kept the complete lists upto date and confirmed and moved the vast majority of finished threads. Great fun for 10 days with some great activity from almost all managers. The challenge now is to keep that interactivity high for the duration of the season.

Plus #TheSoundTakeover was great again and will definately be back again next Transfers!


The Pro Tour

Spoiler
For the most part the main contenders havn't changed much. Trofimov is still trofimov. Phinney is still Phinney. Bewley is still Bewley. Last years Top3 really isn't looking likely to change all that much. Trofimov is most in danger and we'll get to why in a moment. Andy Schleck was 4th last year after a stellar season and we expect him to drop a bit this year but probably only to 6th ot 7th. Simone Ponzi was a huge surprise in 5th so expect him to take a big tumble, quite possible all the way down out the Top10.

Damiano Cunego is another year older. He's still very strong but that winning edge seems to have finally worn away so that 6th place is more likely to become 16th or 26th. Pluchkin has a new team and is already a winner this year. New motivation could take him into the Top5 as others drop. Frank Schleck most certainly won't remain a Top10 rider, a big fall is expected of him, quite possibly to outside the Top30 in my opinion! Simon Spilak just edged a Top10 finish last season. It should be easier this year if he can land that big GT win to match that big wage.

Jose Alarcon was one of the surprises of the year. He'd need another GT win to repeat 11th place and you can't expect that of him. Still he's an exceptional climber so remaining in the Top20 is doable. Edvald Boasson Hagen is free of the Rainbows and that's only going to make him deadly. Expect a big rise up for 12th to i'd say the Top5 and a strong challenge for the overall podium. Spartacus has lost a bit but his dual wielding skills and general all-roundness should keep him amongst the Top15 or so places. Similarly for Taaramae in 14th he'd need a strong season to repeat that placing but he got some investment so whilst it might need some luck you could still expect it. Van Garderen however shouldn't make that Top15. Wikipedia could just do something with it's riders to find that extra strength. He's still strong but nearer 20th place this year.

Below there Bakelants really should move upwards. He's very talented but doens't have the luck which must come to him eventually. Justo Tenorio justo missedo outo ono theo topo 20o last year so with a proper manager he has top be a Top15 contender. As should Gesink be based on his skill, but Robert will always find a new way to mess things up and should be happy with around that 20th place.

The loss of Tom Boonen will only help Bewely who might break the 3000 barrier now his biggest rival is gone. Contador is also gone from the Top20 which opens up a space for someone like Tenorio or Madrazo to fill. I'd like to see a sprinter really get inside the Top20 (no, Bewley doesn't count) and whilst Swift is best i'd more see Van Stayen doing that with his new training.

Overall there's not a huge amount of changing amongst the top riders in the PT. Some have changed teams and some have just gotten a year older. If anyone is gonna jump in from outside the Top30 it'll be Madrazo or Denfil. But if you can get two or three of those Top20 riders on your team then a title challenge is your goal. If you don't have anyone in the Top30 then it's gonna be a tough year.


The Pro Continental Tour

Spoiler
The PCT really has switched up a lot this year through transfers. The sprinters disperesed somewhat and in came the flood of climbers and stage racers. This makes Janez Brajkovic's job of defending that #1 spot much much trickier. Honestly i can't see him holding it and he really could tumble down out of the Top5 into the lower Top10 positions. Marquez has a killing season last year and staying in the PCT was the right thing but again he's gonna tumble as those GC finishes get tougher. His ability to win stages though should keep him around the Top10 positions. Intxausti stayed PCT as well and like the other two will suffer with the new influx of GC riders but again he is still strong enough to stick inside that Top10.

The next rider to stay is 7th placed Betancourt and yeah his Top10 could be safe if the GC riders spread around their points. He did perform above expectation last year but shouldn't need to do so quite as much this year. Di Maggio again stayed PCT and whilst he's one-dimensional at least it's not mountains so a Top10 challenge should still be on the cards. Ciolek the highest sprinter was 9th last year. Really i think he'll slip out the Top10 but not by much and still stay Top15 as the sprint field is lighter than last years. Abal is gonna drop and drop hard this year. All the way out of the Top20? I think so as the competiton in his terrains is just so much stronger.

Bibby just missed the Top10 last year. I think he'll miss it again this year and end nearer 15th than 10th through no fault his just that there'll be more competition. Monfort in 14th was a good year for him and he'll need a couple more stand out results to match that but he can still challenge the Top20 ranking. Dario Cataldo is next up to take a big fall down the rankings. There's just no way he'll stay Top15 and really he'll do well to stay Top30 in my opinion.

Outside of those places Vantomme really should move upwards a bit to the Top15. At least i think he should be challenging Ciolek for best sprinter in the rankings. Really quite a number of the Top30 have moved onwards to new pastures, 4th-6th have all gone PT along with 12-13th, 17th-18th, 20th-21st, 23rd, 25th-26th, 28th and 30th. That means a lot of spots to replace! The relegated PT team leaders should fill a lot of those gaps.

Machado, Avelino, Vanspeybrouck, Keizer and transfers like Contador, Boonen and FA's like Summerhill should all slip into the Top30. Then there's those riders who've leveled up like Kelderman as well. As much as riders have left and declined theres just as many ready to jump in!

Reall though, the big question is can Lululemon/Bulgaria Blackfish get a rider into the Top50? (How did we get that close to survivng with 54th as best!). In this division a Top10 ranking rider will almost certainly keep you safe from relegation. Three in the Top20 makes you a a challenger for winnin the Division. But unlike the PT you can get by without without a high ranking individual... just... which gives hope to some teams that lack a big name leader.


The Continental Tour

Spoiler
I don't know how to approach the CT this year. Almost the entire Top30 has moved upwards a division. Mendes has stayed and he still holds enough skill to push for another Top3 finish. Marentes has stayed but a Top10 won't happend, i see him falling out of the Top20 altogether with the CT being stronger now than ever before. Kulhavy also remains from the Top10. He benefited a lot from not being chased by his own team so now won't get as much freedom to sneak away. A drop down into the lower Top20 seems likely.

Bole has stayed from 11th. Really he should still be around that low Top10 area based on skill but that will heavily depend on how his team manages him alonside Mendes, so i fear a drop down to around 20th for him if he's used more for sprinting than punching. Meyer remains from 12th and he's still amongst the best divisional sprinters so staying around that area in the rankings seems about right on balance. Martinez from 17th is still CT. I actually think he'll climb a bit in the rankings this year. Yes his competition is tougher but he's still one of the better stage racer combos in the division and that should edge him above some of the purer climbers.

The CT has just added so many new faces. Anacona and Vastaranta will challenge for that #1 position for DeLaval. As will Zeits and Atapuma. Simon won't be far off and certainly should be Top10 material. Rabon as well will be around the Top10 placings. Rolland i'd watch as some good planning could have him in theTop5 but poor planning could have him outside the Top30. Richeze is lining up to be the new top sprinter which could put him around the lower Top10 placings but the sprinters could share too many points between them and drop to nearer 20th, especially after a few breakaway successes. Finally i'll mention Kuboki. His unique mix of skills could see him take some GC wins and put him right amongst the Top5 riders. Or he could fall just short in every race and place around 30th. It'll be one or the other.

Tons of new riders to the CT mean that the rankings here will change most compared to PCT or PT. Hard to predict especially as managers must balance between C2 races, where PCT teams are weakened, and the potentially big scoring C1 races, where PCT teams are full force.


Final Thoughts

Spoiler
The PT hasn't changed massively. There's a roughly equal balance between those leaving and declining and those coming in and improving. On the whole he top riders will remain the top riders but the gap between 10th and 30th should close up a bit.

The PCT has improved in quality. Some big in transfers and FA pick ups will change around the top end of the rankings somewhat. Really it depends if a single stage racer of two can claim dominance or if they'll all share around the points more equally. It'll be very interesting to watch and i expect the gap from 1st to 30th shrink up a fair bit.

The CT is all change. Honestly i have no idea which way it will go as to who will end up on top. The overall quality has taken a massive step forwards and that will mess up the rankings as it will now be harder to overperform you way to the Top10 as riders have done in the past. Certainly the gaps will again close up between 1st and 30th.

As far as Team rankings go, i've left that up to other Previews. I doubt my opinions would be radically different. We can all pick out those 3/4 teams in eahc division who'll challenge for the top and which 3/4 will be battling against the bottom.

So what will this mean going forwards. Next year i think the Tranfser market will regress back to a more inflated level. There just won't be as many Hammer cuts as this year taking place. There will be some yes but not enough to keep the market depressed as it was this year. And of course this impacts on Promotions and Relegations. There's no way a team can be saved this time around based on activity, which is only a good thing. In the PCT 8th place might get you promotion, depening where Eritel finish. In the CT a Top10 will put you in contention i think.

As far as this affects Lululemon/Bulgaria it will be tight for us. We've taken a sizable step forwards from our set-up last year. If the PCT was the same as last year we might be able to get into the Top20. Now though 25th seems like a reasonable target and that would be safety. Regardless we'll be positive throughout and take what comes our way. We can always ban our competitors!

i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
roturn
Interesting read. I honestly expect Keizer to be in top10 individual scoring. Top 5 would be better. Pfft
Not sure though how realistic this is.
 
SotD
First of all, this is a very nice read. Huge thumbs up from me. I really like this, although I would have hoped for some more things about teams instead of just riders.

I think a rider such as Marcus Burghardt could easily be inside the top 20 this season. The GT madness will probably level out eachother except for a couple of riders who are in luck and wins a few more stages and the overall. So I would expect to see some other types in the top 20. If could be a rider like Kristoff aswell btw, but I really excpect Burghardt to do well this season, with the high percentage of cobbled stages.

Also I don't think Ponzi will fall that far down. He is up where he is for a reason. Not because he is 82HI, but because he has amazing allround qualities aswell as a high sprint stat (which btw is also why Trofimov won last year). I also expect Adam Blythe to score well, perhaps not top 20, but close to. And finally I think Jack Bobridge will be inside the individual top 20 Smile - Francesco Ginanni and John Degenkolb could be aswell.
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Scorchio
Liked the different style of preview here, and the discussion presented in final thoughts has made me think Smile. Good input and look forward to The Sound going from strength-to-strength throughout the season!
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG
 
Avin Wargunnson
Great read Manx! Smile
I'll be back
 
matt17br
Enjoying reading all the overviews TMM! Didn't think Rolland had the potential to snap in the top 5, hopefully my planning is good and not bad enough to get him out of the top 30 Wink
(Former) Manager of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png Generali pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png
 
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TheManxMissile
@Roturn - Last season he'd be Top5 for sure. But with all the new stage racers it's gonna be a lot harder. Mix up his Stage Racing with some TT wins and it's very possible though.

@SotD - Missed Burghardt but unlike Bewley or Cancellara he doesn't have a secondary terrain where he can really score. Kristoff does have two skills but he's not exactly Top5 in either and that will hurt. I'd like to see either or both in the Top20 but it'll be tricky for them.
On the other mentioned names. All of them have the skills to get Top20. But there's just so many riders who could do well that i can't talk about them all otherwise the piece would be 10k words long and i'd die of boredom. I'm expecting Ponzi to drop as his points get stolen by EBH and Bakelants on climbs and by Van Stayen in hard stage sprints.

@Scorchio - I was debating whether to make Final Thoughts longer but it'll be better to turn some of the discussion points into full issues later into the season. Just don't expect anything before June/July in game time

@Avin - Thanks

@Matt - I really think Rolland could be a big surprise rider this year. He's a lot more all-round than some "big" CT riders and i think he can pop-up with several big results. We'll see what happens as i don't know the CT calendar that well so there may be zero races for him to do well in Pfft
i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
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