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Vuelta á España 2014
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 21-08-2014 16:26
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Riis123 wrote:
sutty68 wrote:
This could be a possible Race winning team 
Nah, there are at least 6-7 better stage racers than anything Garmin has to offer. I can possibly see them having 2 of the 3 in the top-10 (which would be quite a success, I assume) and they would be a good bet for the team competition, but not more than that. Martin seems to me like the best bet as I dont have that much faith into Talansky or Hesjedal.
The problem is with Martin he's that he hasn't proven anything in 3 weeks, since he hasn't so far been able to have 3 weeks at top level. I'll believe Ryder is the leader. |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 21-08-2014 16:32
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Miguel98 wrote:
Riis123 wrote:
sutty68 wrote:
This could be a possible Race winning team
Nah, there are at least 6-7 better stage racers than anything Garmin has to offer. I can possibly see them having 2 of the 3 in the top-10 (which would be quite a success, I assume) and they would be a good bet for the team competition, but not more than that. Martin seems to me like the best bet as I dont have that much faith into Talansky or Hesjedal.
The problem is with Martin he's that he hasn't proven anything in 3 weeks, since he hasn't so far been able to have 3 weeks at top level. I'll believe Ryder is the leader.
Well, all of the three have some red flags. Talansky obviously after his crash and his statements about being a helper, Martin because of his crashing/not a proven stage racer and Ryder due to him having peaked. I feel like its up in the air who of those riders will be the strongest, but I have a gut feeling that Dan Martin will come out ahead on - mostly because she showed great form recently but also the fact that he only has focused on this since his chrash mid-may.
It will for sure be interesting. Martin is clearly the rider with the higher ceiling for this Vuelta to me, while Hesjedal maybe would be the 'safer' bet, if you can say anything is safe on that squad |
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| Nin1388 |
Posted on 21-08-2014 17:05
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Here are my predictions for Vuelta España
1. Quintana - superb form since he has come back from break.
2. Purito
3/4. Froome/Contador- both have not raced since crashing though but they have been training. Though 1st week is not hard they may lose time in uphill finishes.
5 onwards. Too difficult to predict Valverde, Pinot, Betancur, 3 garmin riders, Samuel Sanchez, Moreno, Evans, Zubeldia, Horner, Aru list goes on .............
Also look out for Merhawi Kudus (MTN) and Natnael Berhane (Europcar). Both extremely talented and time for then to shine 
And Landa also looked impressive last few races. He was out climbing Kangert and Aru in recent races. |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 21-08-2014 18:31
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An overview over the 7 mountain top finishes:
Stage 6, La Zubia - 4,8 km, 7,8%. Notes: Rolling parcous into the foot of La Zubia. The 7,8% does not accurately explain how tough this climb is as the last 4 kilometres has a gradient of 10%. This is more or less Zoncolan on 4 kms.
Stage 9, Aramón de Valdelinares - 8 km, 6,6%. Notes: Relatively easy climb which shouldnt make big differences in the GC. The hardest part of the climb will be from the 3-1 km mark where it rises 8,5%.
Stage 11, San Miguel de Araler - 10 km, 7,5%. Notes: Another relatively easy parcour except from the last climb. This is NOT a very steady climb as the gradients mostly varies from 5-10%, but definetely not easy.
Stage 14: La Camperona - 8,5 km, 7,5%. Notes: Once again the gradients lie. The first part of the climb is relatively easy, almost false flat. However, the second part is downright cruel with a long stretch which seems like a kilometer rising 19%. Its worth noticing that the stage inclues Puerto San Glorio.
Stage 15: Lagos de Covadonga - 12,2%, 7,2%. Notes: The downhill parts on the top inflates the average gradient as its definetely - on paper - one of the hardest climbs. The damage should be done from the bottom/midway up if one wants to gain valuable time.
Stage 16: La Farrapona 16,5 km, 6,2%. Notes: Probably the only stage in this year's Vuelta with high impact climbs (and a lot of them) before the finish line which makes the last climb that much harder. The climb up to Lagos de Somiedo in itself is classic this years Vuelta: very rolling first part and steep last part. A big day for the GC.
Stage 20: Puerto de Ancares - 12,7 km, 8,7%. This climb (and stage in general) is quite similar to Annecy Semnoz in 2013 on the second last day. Its a brutal climb which varies a lot in gradients and big differences can be made from 3,5 km - 9 km as its consistently over 10%.
Edited by Riis123 on 21-08-2014 18:32
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| Smoku |
Posted on 21-08-2014 19:13
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I love how these gradients change in a matter of seconds. Makes the race even more unpredictable.
I just took a look at La Camperona profile and this looks soooooo epic. 2 straight km of pure pain - looks more scary than Angliru to me.
I know what can happen on 200 metres of 20%, but 2 kms of that? Come on...
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| jacobjc88 |
Posted on 21-08-2014 19:14
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Nin1388 wrote:
Here are my predictions for Vuelta España
1. Quintana - superb form since he has come back from break.
2. Purito
3/4. Froome/Contador- both have not raced since crashing though but they have been training. Though 1st week is not hard they may lose time in uphill finishes.
5 onwards. Too difficult to predict Valverde, Pinot, Betancur, 3 garmin riders, Samuel Sanchez, Moreno, Evans, Zubeldia, Horner, Aru list goes on .............
Contador at 3rd spot or 4th spot  If that happens I will be the first to praise you, but with that little training I can't believe he will end that high.
5 and onwards.....Betancur ? Lol. He's fat a pig. You could make plenty of bacon of him right now. At best he could do a 50-80 place and I'm not even sure about that.
Valverde, Pinot, Zubeldia all did Tour in top shape, so they probably won't be able to go the distance. Aru had lots of time to prepare - Im expecting good things from him. I believe Horner will be on the podium, not a lot of TT (good for him) and lots of mountains, wasn't ready at the tour but he will be at the vuelta (dope or not). Evans is over the hill, could do a top 6-7-8 maybe, don't really know where he stands. Didn't look that good in Tour of Utah.
Moreno will do some damage for sure, looking really good together with Quintana. I just haven't seen Moreno being steady in 3 weeks yet, maybe this is the year? Purito top 3? He was good in Sebastian, but let's see.
Present:
Tinkoff-Saxo - AG2R - Colombian riders
Past:
Francisco Mancebo - Illes balears - Carlos Sastre - Kelme - Robbie McEwen
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| Anderis |
Posted on 21-08-2014 19:20
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Riis123 wrote:
Nah, there are at least 6-7 better stage racers
Exactly the same could have been said about Horner last year or Cobo in 2011. Vuelta is so unpredictable that you can't really discount anyone who has proven to be capable of top10 GT finish in recent years. |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 21-08-2014 20:05
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Anderis wrote:
Riis123 wrote:
Nah, there are at least 6-7 better stage racers
Exactly the same could have been said about Horner last year or Cobo in 2011. Vuelta is so unpredictable that you can't really discount anyone who has proven to be capable of top10 GT finish in recent years.
So you seriously think that either of those guys stand a slight chance of winning the race? I suppose Martin does if 3 of the biggest contenders fall, but lets be real about their chances.
Lets take the best GC-guys in the world in 2013:
Rodriguez was at 100% in Tour de France and thus wasnt able to ride on that same level. He also had a very good spring with alot of races.
You can say the same about Valverde. Its just that they are so god damn consistent on all parts of the calender. Either of them was at their best in the Vuelta.
Froome, Contador and Quintana obviously wasnt there, probably 3 of the 4 best stage racers in the world. They all are this year along with the two mentioned above.
Its no secret that Nibali also did struggle in August to find his form after the Giro due to him not training enough. He somewhat found it, but it was quite clear to me he obviously wasnt at his best and is the only one of those guys who dont attend. |
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| Anderis |
Posted on 21-08-2014 21:20
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The point is that the strongest names on paper don't always win, especially at Vuelta, where all of the best riders have tried to build their peak for one of the earlier races and the form of anybody is kind of unkown.
I don't know who will win the race but I give it a 70% chance that at least one unexpected name will finish the race in the top5, possibly on the podium, maybe even at the highest spot of it. I have no clue whether it's Dan Martin, Maxime Bouet, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Mikel Landa, Kenny Elissonde, Esteban Chaves, Lawson Craddock or anyone else. But I feel it's more likely than not that at least one of the riders will exceed expectations big time. |
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| Nin1388 |
Posted on 21-08-2014 22:18
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jacobjc88 wrote:
Nin1388 wrote:
Here are my predictions for Vuelta España
1. Quintana - superb form since he has come back from break.
2. Purito
3/4. Froome/Contador- both have not raced since crashing though but they have been training. Though 1st week is not hard they may lose time in uphill finishes.
5 onwards. Too difficult to predict Valverde, Pinot, Betancur, 3 garmin riders, Samuel Sanchez, Moreno, Evans, Zubeldia, Horner, Aru list goes on .............
Contador at 3rd spot or 4th spot If that happens I will be the first to praise you, but with that little training I can't believe he will end that high.
5 and onwards.....Betancur ? Lol. He's fat a pig. You could make plenty of bacon of him right now. At best he could do a 50-80 place and I'm not even sure about that.
Valverde, Pinot, Zubeldia all did Tour in top shape, so they probably won't be able to go the distance. Aru had lots of time to prepare - Im expecting good things from him. I believe Horner will be on the podium, not a lot of TT (good for him) and lots of mountains, wasn't ready at the tour but he will be at the vuelta (dope or not). Evans is over the hill, could do a top 6-7-8 maybe, don't really know where he stands. Didn't look that good in Tour of Utah.
Moreno will do some damage for sure, looking really good together with Quintana. I just haven't seen Moreno being steady in 3 weeks yet, maybe this is the year? Purito top 3? He was good in Sebastian, but let's see.
Contador and Froome are in same boat. Not raced but have been training. As you can see I mentioned if they go through 1st week. Then 2nd and 3rd week they can get back. Because in GT things are different. In 1st week you can lose 2-3 min and get back on long climbs on average climbers.
And others I have just mentioned. Even Valverde did very good at TdF last year (If not for crosswinds and puncture) and got podium at Vuelta. You can't rule out anyone just based on theory. Because practically things can be different. Even Betancur and his team has promised to be in Shape for Vuelta and I take their word till I see a fat Betancur at start line so I include his name too. Even when he won Paris Nice this year he was overweight and yet won.
I have to agree about Purito though. I'm not sure he can be on podium. I'm hoping he does. But Amstel and Giro crash have cost him and he is not the same. He could not recover in 3 weeks at TdF and at San sabestian he should have beat Valverde. Maybe it's just his age.
Anyway we will see. |
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| Cossack |
Posted on 22-08-2014 08:05
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I wouldn't underestimate Horner. He has ridden TdF this year, but clearly just as a preparation to Vuelta, so once again he is one of riders who have their first major peak here. His form in Utah was decent, so I won't be surprised if he gets top 5-10 here. No win this time 
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| searmh |
Posted on 22-08-2014 09:42
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Riis123 wrote:
Anderis wrote:
Riis123 wrote:
Nah, there are at least 6-7 better stage racers
Exactly the same could have been said about Horner last year or Cobo in 2011. Vuelta is so unpredictable that you can't really discount anyone who has proven to be capable of top10 GT finish in recent years.
So you seriously think that either of those guys stand a slight chance of winning the race? I suppose Martin does if 3 of the biggest contenders fall, but lets be real about their chances..
the plus for Garmin is they can be very aggressive with all 3 riders, bit like they were at the dauphine, all 3 can and have rode alone and martin IMO can out climb most on his day. i expect to see lots of attacks from Garmin |
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| wogsrus |
Posted on 22-08-2014 09:56
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Horner will not start.
https://www.teamla...di-horner/ |
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| MARSUPILAMI |
Posted on 22-08-2014 09:59
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MARSUPILAMI wrote:
1 Froome
2 Quintana
3 Rodriguez
4 Uran
5 Valverde
6 Aru
7 Kelderman
8 Nieve
9 Pozzovivo
10 Horner
Points Rodriguez
Mountain Froome
Combi Froome
Some changes
1 Quintana
2 Froome
3 Uran
4 Rodriguez
5 Aru
6 Contador???????
7 Kelderman
8 Yates
9 Chaves
10 Valverde
Points Rodriguez
Mountain Quintana
Combi Quintana
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| Stromeon |
Posted on 22-08-2014 10:38
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Not really sure what to make of it...
But he'll be back next year I'm sure
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| jacobjc88 |
Posted on 22-08-2014 10:53
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@MARSUPILAMI
Orica already said they are planning to pull Yates out of the race after like 2 weeks
Present:
Tinkoff-Saxo - AG2R - Colombian riders
Past:
Francisco Mancebo - Illes balears - Carlos Sastre - Kelme - Robbie McEwen
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 22-08-2014 11:18
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I don't feel bad for it. And especially for low cortisone levels
I'm waiting for the positive test to come up. |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 22-08-2014 12:13
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Me neither, he got what he asked for. Question is if UCI will ban it after all those cases?
Miguel: As far as I understood, this was the 'positive' test as he simply isnt allowed to race due to Lampre being a member of that organization. And I suppose (im not fully into this, just read a article explaining it) you mean the low cortisol level as an effect of cortisone use/abuse which makes the body not produce cortisol naturally (alá rolland case).
Edited by Riis123 on 22-08-2014 12:14
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| Shonak |
Posted on 22-08-2014 12:19
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Too bad. Biggest line-up of any Grand Tour this year and the defending champion isn't at the startline. Sounds right now more like a formality in their statement.
Edited by Shonak on 22-08-2014 12:20
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| MARSUPILAMI |
Posted on 22-08-2014 12:25
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jacobjc88 wrote:
@MARSUPILAMI
Orica already said they are planning to pull Yates out of the race after like 2 weeks
Without Yates then...
Mmm... Zubeldia maybe
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