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Expansion Pack: Stat Discussion
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| samdiatmh |
Posted on 25-07-2012 03:40
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Just one obvious, Peter Velits should be maybe 78-79 TT, he has shown he is becoming TT specialist, so maybe lower his mountains a bit also.
He is 76/74 MO/HILL so i think 74/75 would be more apropriate,as he is usually very good in hilly stages and finishes. Also he is one of the best sprinters among climbers.
i don't agree
taking the two TDF timetrials into perspective (not counting the first one)
He finished 1min59 behind in stage 9, similar to Chavanel Evans and Nibali, which suggests a 75-76 imo
then finished 2min02 behind in stage 19, similar to LLS and Porte, which suggests a 77-78
i'd be tempted to give him around 76/77 in TT with a high recovery stat
i'd also give similar stats to LLS, they both seem to produce good TTs toward the end of GTs (note Velits's win in 2010 Vuelta)
a TT of 79 would mean that he'd win too many TTs (outside of those with big names) and his palmaeres suggest that this doesn't happen
now given these, i'd give Wiggins no higher than about 81 in the TT with Froome at about 79
edit: though i would hesitate to lock these in ahead of the impending Olympics TT
Edited by samdiatmh on 25-07-2012 03:41
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 25-07-2012 07:30
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samdiatmh wrote:
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Just one obvious, Peter Velits should be maybe 78-79 TT, he has shown he is becoming TT specialist, so maybe lower his mountains a bit also.
He is 76/74 MO/HILL so i think 74/75 would be more apropriate,as he is usually very good in hilly stages and finishes. Also he is one of the best sprinters among climbers.
i don't agree
taking the two TDF timetrials into perspective (not counting the first one)
He finished 1min59 behind in stage 9, similar to Chavanel Evans and Nibali, which suggests a 75-76 imo
then finished 2min02 behind in stage 19, similar to LLS and Porte, which suggests a 77-78
i'd be tempted to give him around 76/77 in TT with a high recovery stat
i'd also give similar stats to LLS, they both seem to produce good TTs toward the end of GTs (note Velits's win in 2010 Vuelta)
a TT of 79 would mean that he'd win too many TTs (outside of those with big names) and his palmaeres suggest that this doesn't happen
now given these, i'd give Wiggins no higher than about 81 in the TT with Froome at about 79
edit: though i would hesitate to lock these in ahead of the impending Olympics TT
Good points, but still i would say 77 at least, look at the other riders who finished multiple times in top5/10 in GT TT in last two years, they are all above 76...so i think 77 with better recovery shoul be good if 82/81 is the maximum for Martin, Wiggo,Cance. And as you said he does not have many other TT results, but he is simply not going for the other races much, only for one top goal every year. And in Tour, there are top riders in top form, so good for comparsion. And as i said i would lower his mountain a bit also...
And Velits is not going to Olympics, so he will not be in comparsion with the others there.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 25-07-2012 17:35
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Chris Anker Sorenson should have at least 78 fighter. He attacks quite a lot for a 73.
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| maaarsh |
Posted on 25-07-2012 20:30
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Griepel is slightly over-rated. No way for Cav to overtaken Griepel after he's received a perfect leadout as occured on stage 2 with the same sprint and just +1 acceleration.
I appreciate giving them parity based on equal number of stage wins, but all of Cavs were against Greipel. Only 1 of Greipel's was against Cav, and Cav started 25 yards back in that one. Frankly last year was more impressive from Greipel when he actually did demonstrate the ability to beat Cav straight up. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 22:06
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 25-07-2012 20:37
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I'd just give Greipel less recovery.
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| alex valceanu |
Posted on 25-07-2012 21:04
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Greipel did nothing in the last week at Tour so yeah low recovery . |
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| Teddy The Creator |
Posted on 25-07-2012 23:12
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We have seen that Cav is by far the fastest, and he deserves a higher SP. 83 SP - 81 ACC for Cav and 82 - 81 for Greip.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 25-07-2012 23:21
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Teddy The Creator wrote:
We have seen that Cav is by far the fastest, and he deserves a higher SP. 83 SP - 81 ACC for Cav and 82 - 81 for Greip.
id disagree on the ACC stats
Cav's won his final two sprint by going from a long way out, surprising everyone. We also know that he has the ability to kick again. ACC is supposed to affect the speed the red bar decreases, so i'd say for Cav's this should be one of his highest stats, especially as he has lost top speed.
Cavs 82SP 83/84ACC
However Greipel i think is right, 82SP 81ACC. He can be as fast as Cav, but not for as long.
Farrar needs lowering to 78/79SP imo.
Pettachi should be similar
Kittel i dont know, need to wait for the Vuelta i guess, but ive always thought hes been overrated.
Degenkolb needs to be boosted a bit. 77SP 77ACC 72HL and STA in the high 70's
just my thoughts on a few sprinters
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 26-07-2012 01:23
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Cav can be 83 sprint. I don't think the beef that he lost speed that much.
I agree on all the rest.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 26-07-2012 07:00
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Farrar 78/79 is too much imo, he is not on level of Petacchi, Guardini, Sagan who have similar sprint stats. He was two years ago, but after what happened to WW he is not so fast anymore.
Even Veelers is faster than Farrar now...
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| Teddy The Creator |
Posted on 26-07-2012 07:03
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This might be ignorant, but what's WW got to do with Farrar? And in lat years tour he was near the level of Cav..
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 26-07-2012 07:09
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Teddy The Creator wrote:
This might be ignorant, but what's WW got to do with Farrar? And in lat years tour he was near the level of Cav..
They were best friends, i am not saying that is the reason for Farrar not being fast,but from that incident he is not the same rider.
Few words about that here, there is plenty of articles about that on the web...
https://bicycling.com/blogs/thisjustin...gh-sorrow/
Edit: In 2011 he was 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the stages, rest not in the top 10, i would not call that close to Cav...
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 26-07-2012 07:12
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| Teddy The Creator |
Posted on 26-07-2012 07:52
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I think winning a stage is definitely near the level. He didn't have an entire team dedicated to him like Cav, and for example, people were saying earlier that Guardini has similar speed to Cab because he won one stage, and didn't top-10 any others. 1st, 2nd and 3rd sounds very good to me.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 26-07-2012 08:12
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I'd say Farrar is equal to someone like guardini
all of guardini's wins this season (excet 1 giro win) have come agains weak fields
Farrar only seems to race against top fields.
Farrar is not top 5, but he's in the group behind them, he just needs some luck
He did come second in the Scheldprijs so clearly he is still fast
so maybe not 78/79, but only 77 at least, and still a high flat stat, 78-80ish
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| Teddy The Creator |
Posted on 26-07-2012 08:17
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I said the same about Guardini, but they wouldn't listen. I say Farrar equals Degenkold, Van Hummel, and Boasson Hagen.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 26-07-2012 08:21
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Well, his last sprint win is exactly one year old from that Tour and this year not a single win, only four podiums during the whole year...one podium in Oman, T-A and Giro and he was very bad in Suisse and France, 6th place at best. I think this not deserve more than 77/78 or something like this. He simply cant be close to Goss or Sagan imo who are far better sprinters in the last year...
Edit: I agree with Teddy, where Tyler belongs...
Edited by Avin Wargunnson on 26-07-2012 08:22
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 26-07-2012 08:22
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Teddy The Creator wrote:
I said the same about Guardini, but they wouldn't listen. I say Farrar equals Degenkold, Van Hummel, and Boasson Hagen.
exactly!
The differences then come in the other stats
Farrar and Degen should have 74+cb
Boasson-Hagen should have 76+hl
Van Hummel is the only raw sprinter in that group, like Guardini
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 26-07-2012 15:25
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Farrar gets 78. He showed he is a beter sprinter than those named when he was 4th out of the pack on stage 18 and 2nd from the pack in I forget the stage. On the Champs he fell back because of bad positioning but that doesn't knock his sprint. Not to mention that he either crashed or was injured up until then so how can you judge? Alll the names mentioned have never won anything in a flat road against the best in the world. Plus Farrar didn't go for green so you can't blow him for that.
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| kumazan |
Posted on 26-07-2012 15:30
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It's been over a year since Farrar's last non-TTT win. I'd say it's justified.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 26-07-2012 15:34
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Pettacchi has won with weak fields only and has been on about the same level as Farrar, yet he is higher.
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
