jsh312mufc wrote:
Don't sit under a pseudonym and write this s***, rather than get off your a***s in your own lives and apply yourselves, work hard and achieve something
Can you tell me a big win before last year? I mean, besides the fourth in the Touyr, can I have a win besides Three Days de Panne and Bayern Rundfart?
Edited by baseballlover312 on 26-07-2012 15:33
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
He isn't a stage winner. His best result on the road before last year was 4th in the TdF, which is pretty good.
BB means before his sudden rise in '09, in a stage race where you need to climb
Track is not the same, it is impressive and shows a special talent, but if Clancy or Levy started podiuming in GT's it would be suspicious
the point is, he started working on the road instead of the track. this showed in his 2009 result. At team sky in 2010 he had the wrong mentality and just didnt train. in 2011 he started working to a level which would put him in contention for the tour, but he was injured, and he didnt perform as well as he could do in the vuelta because he was aiming to peak at the tour. in 2012, with an amazing team of riders who could win by themselves dragging him up to the line, and with his tt abilities we already knew he had, he managed to win, in a year when the best climbers weren't there. What is so hard to understand?
baseballlover312 wrote:
Wait, are you saying Sky diidn't train as hard in 2012, cause they did. That has always been stressesd there, so it doesn't explain the improvements.
no, i'm saying wiggins didn't train very hard in 2010
baseballlover312 wrote:
Wait, are you saying Sky diidn't train as hard in 2012, cause they did. That has always been stressesd there, so it doesn't explain the improvements.
no, i'm saying wiggins didn't train very hard in 2010
jsh312mufc wrote:
At team sky in 2010 he had the wrong mentality and just didnt train.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
baseballlover312 wrote:
Can you tell me a big win before last year? I mean, besides the fourth in the Touyr, can I have a win besides Three Days de Panne and Bayern Rundfart?
Bayern Rundfahrt is a decent race for a rider with Wiggins' characteristics. He will never be a prolific winner because he lacks acceleration and doesn't/can't attack. So his palmares will most likely only consist of GC victories/placings, like these ones or TT results, but then not likely in the WT because there are others like Martin/Cancellara who are even more specialised than him.
Arguing based on his palmares alone isn't necessarily going to show anything. Look at Van den Broeck for instance. He has 1 win in his palmares, and he has been in the top 5 of the Tour twice. His palmares would point to that being impossible and, while he has far from the cleanest history, you can't use his victories alone to argue that.
Ybodonk wrote:
Aquarius is a shark. He has done some calculations in here for us. I have mostly taken his word for it.
Aquarius will you be so kind to post your formula of wattages calculation + the information you have used to these calculations.
But for instance are you referring to the revealing of Nibali numbers? He did 320 w at one of the stages - the calculation was for a 70kg + 8kg bike.
However remember Nibali is way lighter than 70kg so he did ride way more than 320 w. Thats was what the expert told me
No way I'm a shark : I'm a poor swimmer with bad tooth (and a bad internet connection for a couple of days).
I guess I could find the formula somewhere, but it has like a dozen of parameters in it. I couldn't tell it from memory. I know it includes altitude difference, road lengths, average temperature, wind (speed, direction, etc.). Then it has correction coefficients for road quality and such things.
What I base myself on, is the power outputs calculated for years by F. Portoleau, F. Grappe, A. Vayer, etc. It's indirect measurements, but the margin over actual measurements is quite small (1 or 2 %, from memory).
As long as they always calculate them the same way, that makes it for good comparisons.
W/kg : if you read the articles about Wiggins they defined his best weight would be 71 kg (or something like that). Fact is not all parts of a human body produce power, though most are necessary (try to cycle without bones). For obvious reasons, it's hard to evaluate the weight of the neutral (power-wise) bits of a living human body.
Then, according to your type of twitches, you won't have the same output for your power-producing muscles or organs. Climbers have the better output (for endurance effort) but they have less muscles, whereas sprinters are the opposite. TT riders are more balanced.
That's why the 70 + 8 kg model is more convenient for comparisons between riders and mountains.
Conclusion is that depending on the decisive mountains and the amount of ITT, and given your forte and weak points, your ideal weight for a race could be slightly different (either you favour more raw power, either you'd focus on W/kg more).
Teddy The Creator wrote:
I'm not at all trying to be condescending I'm just wondering, does that mean nearly any TT specialist could become a strong climber?
With the proper weight, yes. But... 1) he has to reach that weight, which could be harmful to his TT abilities 2) that's not going to change him into an actual climber (who changes the pace every time), it's always going to change him into a pace climber 3) that's still not enough to make him a GT contender, because his recuperation remains questioned
Aquarius wrote:
I found that message at Cyanide, from my mate Ajaciden, written one year ago. Sort of "message of the year" about Watts. Some pictures are now missing, it were tables with riders powers.
Here's the translation :
Ajaciden wrote :
The 410 Watts threshold applies mostly to the average of performances during Grand Tours. Example :
From then, Rasmussen and Klöden can look very suspect (which wouldn't be unusual for [img]Rasmussen[/img], given his dopehead reputation among MTB riders and fans...).
The only stage when Watts were especially high during the TDF 2006 was the Alpe d'Huez stage :
440 Watts on such a stage looks freaky, but both the Izoard and the Lautaret were climbed with a good tailwind, as well as the summit of the Alpe d'Huez...
Thus, no conclusion can be drawn from that, especially given that the average speeds are not abnormal, as seen above.
THOSE two last stages were freaky, and this is where the 410 Watts threshold takes all its meaning. That's why on the 27th August 2006, Cyclismag wrote an article whose title was : "The lowest Tour de France" since 1990". It must be known that Armstrong, Ullrich and Basso rather averaged 420 to 450 Watts on that kind of stages. That's absolutely freaky. Those who managed to follow them one time or another (Klöden 2004, Mancebo and Rasmussen in 2005, as well as Valverde in Courchevel 2005 before he abandonned => all did 440 Watts) are for half of them, involved in doping scandals : Manbebo and Valverde (Operacion Puerto). Klöden was Ullrich's (Puerto) room mate, and Rasmussen has got one of the worst reputation among MTBikers. Operacion Puerto merely confirmed what Watts had been showing since 2003.
Landis was averaging 420 Watts without his Toussuire day without : later positive with testosterone...
Heras average power during the Vuelta 2005 was clearly above 410 Watts : his positive test came as a confirmation of what we had detected. Mancebo and Garcia Quesada went above that threshold 5 or 6 times : both are involved in the Puerto case. Menchov and Sastre are very suspicious, especially Sastre who averaged once again 415 Watts during the Tour de France 2006...
The Giro d'Italia 2005 was not suspect.
During the Giro 2006, Basso and Enrique Gutierrez were very much higher than the average of 410 Watts : both will be caught in the Puerto case. Simoni and Piepoli are also above human range in the San Carlo, and Simoni will be even higher in the San Pellegrino... Cunego is superhuman in the Passo San Pellegrino, him and Caruso both produce more than 410 Watts (average) : Caruso will be caught in Puerto, whereas Cunego seems to work with Cecchini...
(Monte Bondone and Passo Lanciano rather look like climbing races, it's natural that powers are higher, although Basso's performance remains stunning !).
Vuelta 2006 : Kashechkin and Vinokourov are both above 440 Watts during the third week The other riders collapse and ride around the human threshold.
To sum it up, Watts clearly alert us on Armstrong, Basso, Ullrich, Mancebo, Klöden, Valverde, Vinokourov, Kaschechkin, Simoni, Piepoli, Cunego, Heras, Enrique Gutierrez, Rasmussen. Those in bold have been caught in doping scandals (as off May 2006). That's about 60 % of positive cases in that highly suspicious area (average power or power in legendary stages superior to 420 Watts).
Other zone of high suspicion, those whose power averages 420 Watts. There are Landis, Menchov (Vuelta 2005) and Sastre (Vuelta 2005, TDF 2006). One of them is about to be suspended.
Last zone of high suspicion, the 410-415 Watts average. Here are Leipheimer (TDF 2005), Hamilton and Moreau (TDF 2003), Caruso, Zubeldia and Mayo. Caruso was caught in OP, Hamilton both in OP and at the Olympic Games 2004, Moreau caught in the Festina affair, Zubeldia and Mayo worked with a doctor sacked from Euskaltel for "suspicious habits"... 50% of the riders from that zone have been caught positive. One more rider should have been in this zone but left the Giro (2006) too early to get an average power : Gadret, whose dopehead reputation is serious in France.
Evans is just at the limit : 405 Watts average.
This gives 50% of positive cases among those who reached or beat at least once the 410 Watts average. Not bad, eh ?
Among the few who were not caught, I can't believe at all that Armstrong and Menchov could win their Grand Tours without dope, just like I can't trust Astana's three leaders' (Klöden, Vinokourov, Kashechkin) integrity... Sastre is really hard to trust... And I'm firmly waiting the next performances by Leipheimer and Evans to see what it gives. As for Rasmussen, he probably discovered Virenque's secret.
Klöden is definitely a man in black and is targeted by the UCI. Piepoli, just like Di Luca, had childish hormon values during the Giro last year. Rasmussen is another man in black and was excluded from the last TDF because he supposedly doped. Vinokourov was also excluded from the last TDF for blood doping, and Kashechkin was caught for the same thing a couple of weeks later. There's only Cunego left in the first group now. 10% of those have never been caught...
Contador probably belongs to the second group and is involved in Operacion Puerto as AC. 50 % of positive there then...
Mayo was caught during the last TDF with EPO. A. Schleck belongs there too, I reckon. 57% of positive cases here...
Watts are no indication of doping, eh ?
Aquarius wrote:
I don't think I ever said "409 W is all right, go away, there's nothing wrong with him. 411 W is too much, surely he is doped and should be banned". Did I ? Wink
Above those never taken, never involved, who beat 410 W (not on one hill, but on the average of the worthy climbs of a Grand Tour), how many do you sincerely trust ?
I don't trust any, simple as that. Almost all of them either are working with suspicious people (sports director, doctor), either are life buddy or training partners of riders who have been caught themselves.
If a new rider suddently averages 430 W, yeah, he might be clean, shit happens, but I won't trust him, since statistically, there's almost 100% of chances that he's on dope. That's inductive logic, not deductive logic.
410 W as a limit is even too high, but it's that high to take into consideration all error margins, extra-motivations of the riders, etc. 380-390 would be more realistic, actually. That's why the "411 is not that high, it doesn't prove anything" argument falls short, IMO
Two excellent post of our all time watt expert Aquarius.
I think its word a read and this should enlighten the stastical high probabilities of Sky are doped.
I didnt conclude they where, just comparing and reflects about statistical analysis .
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
