I really like your squad! We should see pink pirates all around on any terrain and any race, which will obviously be good fun for you (and those of us who don't compete in those races too). And given the depth you accumulated on all terrains you're a serious contender for promotion. Best of luck!
Now all the off-season hype dies down we can take stock of the reality of the season ahead. This ties neatly into Goals and goals.
Goals
Team Standings
Top 5
In Progress
Zuri Metzge
Win
In Progress
GP Izola
Win
In Progress
Monterrey TTT
Top 5
In Progress
Baltic Chain Tour
Stage Win
In Progress
Top 5, no surprise we picked the auto-promotion spots as our target. Is this realistic? Ok we've been pushing the narrative hard but with the full overview of the division and rosters now out there, it's far more borderline. It may be tight, and certainly isn't helped by the overall calendar and race planning (too many compromises as we hold a strong RP focus above power gaming our way to the PCT).
Zuri - Metzge and GP Izola as Win targets in C2. Given both races recent histories of needing a sprint kick to win, and knowing we have Meyer & Lagane, this felt easy. Doing the double would be awesome, but even Top 5 in both would be a huge step forwards for the team. Less than that and the Promotion Goal will be incredibly tough.
A TTT goal? Well we did ok last year and are a significantly better TTT team this year. Usually low attended, usually not super strong, sneaking a Top 5 here feels eminently achievable. Plus a few days break in Mexico is always good for the food.
The C1 Goal. We wanted to keep this as low as possible knowing it'd be tough. The CB/PL opening stage is our best shot and why we put this atop the list over a more breakaway friendly race like Euskal Bizikleta or the Tour of America. Big pressure on the backs of Campbell and Matthews but we have a legit shot at getting close.
goals
The more realistic and genuine goals are not the Goals, but those we hold personally and get to set having see how the CT is shaping up.
Lagane & Meyer can't match the best of the pure punchers going up, but no-one else really comes that close to their ability to finish fast on a rolling day. O'Connor sits at a competitive level of GC rider, but one that should see him regularly in the Top10 we hope. Canty's MO/TT combo still sits up there in the division so fingers crossed our GC TTT idea can pay off. Richardson barely has any RD for his 65k wage, but in a division so lacking in Cobbled riders he may be a shock bargain surprise.
Look, it's hard to say we are locks for a promotion. The division feels really open. So deep teams, some very shallow teams. Lots of competition on every terrain, bar Cobbles but Richardson has a lot to prove there. And in the end we had to sacrifice some scoring potential in planning to maximise our development gains. (Although as the MGAdmin will attest, even then we still couldn't hit all our dev targets).
Heading towards the season, it's a year of compromise. If it comes off, we've developed nicely, achieved possible our best ever season for Goals, and are heading to the PCT. If it goes wrong, we still got our regional core in place and growing, and plenty of room to manoeuvre next transfers. All in all it just leaves me scratching my head really unsure where to put my expectations for the season.
A long way to say, bring on the season and those opening January races which will really tell us how the season will play out. And above all of that is just the pride seeing ever more Caribbean's spreading ever further around the MG. A World Championships hosted in the Caribbean in 2028?
I'll admit that I didn't expect you to be serious promotion contenders this year, with what I've seen after renewals and during transfers. But looking at the entire division now, I have definitely changed my mind.
Lagane surely is one reason; as you say, there's no other puncheur in the division having his finishing kick - with the closest one maybe being teammate Mayer... Both probably not being contenders for hard hilltop finishes, but as soon as there are some flatter stretches, they'll be there.
O'Connor will probably be a little further down the stage racer's pecking order than your puncheurs, but he should do some solid scoring, too. Especially in what might be your biggest strength this year: stage races with TTTs. Besides you, I'd say only the Turtles have some notable TTT depth, so you should rock Catalunya, Trentino, Vancouver - and obviously Monterrey, which is a goal you should definitely achieve.
As you say, Richardson could be pretty shaky - but I'm convinced that he will get some good results, given how weak the cobbles field is in CT. Even Matthews could add some good points.
Will it be enough to promote? Lacking some high end riders in any domain, depth and great planning could be decisive - for the latter, you should have the experience needed. Good luck for bringing your Caribbean project to glory!
@Fabi - I zigged when most people have zagged. It could be a genius route to a division podium, or to the bottom half. Time will tell...
The Great Big "Final Pre-Season Predictions" Post
I don't have a witty title for this one. Purely we're here ahead of this weekends expected kick-off to just summarise some of the Predictions we've seen.
Croatia14
When a PT winner, and Caribbean friend, talks you pay attention. 10th - hmm, maybe we won't listen too hard. Although coming off transfers I had us in a similar area, and when you look at Croatia's overall table you get the impression 5th through 15th could be closely bunched.
kandesbunzler26
Big fan of the Ekoi team and their manager. Even though he's grossly underrated his own team, we'll take 2nd! Carried by our TT power up the ranking this really shows off how we have deviated from a lot of other CT teams in our build. Of course we'd love this to come through, but boy the chasing pack of 3rd-13th is close!
redordead 3rd! Back-to-back podium predictions! But by now we're seeing how much variation that is amongst a ton of CT teams to demonstrate this season could go any which way for almost any team. Agreed i don't think we can challenge Tafjord or Gjensidige, but then we are lacking a J in our team name - which is obviously the take away from this prediction
MacC
We'll split the difference between the non-TTT & TTT factors to take 7th. This would be promotion bubble territory, right where I don't want to be. I want to be in or out, I couldn't handle the not knowing. But the benefit, and curse, of this prediction is again how tight the field is!
Fabianski
Back on the podium, 2nd. Recognises how we built the team and how good Lagane could be. Overall Fabi matches relatively closely to my own thoughts on a lot of teams, which doesn't fill me with confidence, because i'm not a good predictor...
Ulrich Ulriksen
We'll split the dif again here, for 7th. Another awkward spot, I don't want to rely on disbands. But notable here that 4th would be well in reach, as would 8th, so feeling good we will be in the battle to promote.
Ezeefreak
Our Jersey maker! His community drive prediction slots us to 3rd. And seems to indicate we should be right up there amongst the promotion battle more than any fear of missing out completely. However when worked through the per-terrain basis we slip to 9th. Which makes sense, we're not aiming to power any terrains and just hoover up points around the place as others star.
Final Prediction - 5th
We it's 4.85th, so i'll round that down to 5th. But crucially, that would be automatic promotion. My takeaway from predictions - 3rd to 15th in the CT could go to anyone and will be extremely tight. Seeing as we slot into that area it could be a very stressful season. But i'm up for that after three or four abject seasons of expected failure!
Oof. That sums up January. Eyes on the prize of promotion, the excitement of our newly developed talents, the buzz was palpable. It sucked in everyone with all in agreement this team was ready to step up after the protracted era of suffering and building. Then racing started, and, well...
Lagane fired off in the Gisborne GP with a strong 3rd place. It wasn't a super strong performance but demonstrated why he must be considered a threat in any lumpy race. Shame that was very much the high point...
The TDU? Kelly had a couple of BOTD's and that was all. In Costa Rica surely the Lagane-Meyer-Mustumine triuvarite could shine on "almost home" soil? No, not even a Top20, not even a Top30, 40th from Mutsumine and abject failure beyond belief. Tachira as a bounce back? More pain, as Canty lost a certain Top5 on the penultimate day down to 13th whilst O'Connor missed the Top10. The sole highlight there was a 2nd place in the ITT from Kristin Vanderpool, a career highpoint for the TT NC.
Maybe the opening rounds on the cobbles would provide a jump start to our form. Entering February we had a chance to turn it up... nope... Wevelgem, just 18th. Herning 10th & 11th.
Which all leads around to the reality check of actual bike racing. Promotion feels a very very long way away. Is this project really another two, three or even four years off reaching the higher divisions of the MG? Is it even possible to build up such a small set of Islands into contenders?
At least we are far too far invested in this to give up, so we'll find the answers. Luckily the season is still long and we have plenty of time to turn things around. Early indications in Catalunya are brighter, and we maintain faith that our riders have talent. And luckily we havn't got to our Goal Races. So it's not 'over', it's just going to be a hard climb., and I still believe!
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
I thought Richardson would be a bigger points scorer at the cobbles to be honest.
His backup stats seem to be a disadvantage.
I hope you can pick up some points before the TT-heavy races like USA Pro Cycling Challenge and Olympia Tour begin. That's where you can get a big haul if I see the TT setup for CT this year (together with Gjensidige, Tafjord and Würth).
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
Sorry to see your riders performing so much worse than expected. But I'm sure they'll have some good races later in the year - I wasn't exactly happy with my start last year, either, and you know how it went later on
Catalunya should suit your strong TTT lineup, and so will other races, too. You may not have top contenders for ITT-heavy races, but you should get some depth results at least.
You don't really have a top 3 CT rider in any category, so there's always the risk of not getting the big result you're hoping for - and if PCM moreover doesn't treat your riders as you'd expect it to (e.g. the punchy sprinters), well, there's some big potential of frustration. I feel like results are generally more random than last year in uphill races - fingers crossed that yours will be on the right side from time to time as well!
@Imladrik - I get to take some joy in watching Bordeau get off to a good start!
@Laurens - I'm here to singlehandedly disprove the theory that back-ups don't matter in PCM22! And yes, our best races are surely still to come.
@Fabi - Over the early frustration and now just figuring out how to progress the project fowards from here. A few bright spots though in seeing Vanderpool getting better results and some core depth from Hasani & Campbell. After the failure of Altur, the constant underperformance of Ewan and this start i'm overdue some luck.
The Great Big "A Misfire Still Makes A Noise" Post
What the heck does that title even mean? Well put simply, despite a second month of relative struggles there are positives to take and the team is not quietly fading away.
Catalunya went pretty well. Mayer had a stint in Yellow, and O'Connor held a Top10 GC finish. Meant we got to show off the jersey and remind people we're a team that exists to do more than dissapoint. Although it nets less than 50points, solid when taken as throwaway depth days, annoying when it's by far our best race of the year.
That sums it up really. Placci went to sh*t and Bosberg flashes nice on paper but will again only give just a couple of points. Speaking of which, we're ranked 12th now and heading on course to comfortably finish outside the Top10. At this point season expectations have shifted to "let's not be the worse returning CT team, and try to win some Goal points". If we can do both of those then our fans will have something to celebrate.
Clear Eyes, Full Hearts etc etc Now we've adjusted to the situation things look less dire than a month ago. But Promotion seems gone already, and we're onto figuring out how to progress the project. Looking forwards to finally getting a little luck and being able to make a genuinely positive post. We still harbour that dream of making a real competitve Caribbean team.
Sad to see you're continuing to get screwed in some races. Placci was another mishit for sure - looks like some climbing skills are now required there, then even a 77 puncheur can win... sucks.
Otherwise, I guess the hard truth is that big points come from wins, and as much as I like your project, I don't think you've got many potential winners on your roster. Tachira has been unlucky for sure, and your puncheurs are just missing some more luck sometimes, but I don't think you can expect any of them to win a lot of races. And at least in C2 races, depth points are pretty much useless, unfortunately.
Still hoping you'll get some better results soon; if any race should really suit Lagane, then it must be Izola (and maybe Zurich). Otherwise, your puncheurs will hopefully be on the attack in the C1/HC races you'll do. Races like USA PCC, Olympia's Tour or Monterrey should hopefully be good as well, but they're still pretty far away right now... Good luck!
@Fabi - Don't need to tell me i'm lacking winners. The challenge is i'm struggling to get winners, and I have to rely on depth as those are the riders i can get added & then get signed on a CT budget. Curse my own desire to try this ridiculous project! Better races to come, and then a serious think what to do going fowards...
@red - I haven't paid much attention to PT yet either Give it another month and i'll be full adjusted to the new state of things and be back to the far more upbeat manager.
It's hard to see the repeated mishaps in your races, especially with the high hopes you (and not only you) had pre-season. But it's also good to see the tone of your posts is getting more optimistic again lately, especially as your riders are pretty interesting. So hopefully the results will further improve and we'll get to see Lagane (or Mayer or Major or O'Connor) win soon!
The improvement from Catalunya followed through to Pais Vasco. Lagane almost stole a stage win, only missing out to Pidcock - and it's hard to hold a grudge against him or Xero. But the star of the C1 race was undoubtedly Brendan Canty, sneaking his way quietly and confidently to 9th in GC!
IoM TTT was less of a success but wasn't terrible. ToME & Guadeloupe were fairly terrible scoring wise, but both events were relative successes for Jay Major. The Bahmanian landing two Top5's in ToME and being solidly around the Top15 in Guadeloupe.
But the highlight is of course GP Izola. The single most perfect race for us on the calendar, marked out as a Win Goal . And Lagane delivered, with a beautifully dominant and controlled sprint from a reduced group. It's a massive result for the team, securing our first outright Win Goal ever, and proving that Gisborne GP wasn't a total fluke in terms of hill races.
Top10 GC in a C1 stage race. Winning a Classic. It's progress. Knowing Lagane could be a real leader is big, and the financial gains may well already be earmarked for his growth. However the team is still well on course to not even be in the promotion conversation. And whilst Canty's solid work is good, he's not going to be on the team next year and we're not seeing a ton of home grown talents really stepping up.
Progress yes, but a heavy dose of reality to go with it. Still more chances to come, especially in our goal races. Top5 in Monterrey seems within reach based on TTT's so far. Win in Zurich at the end of the year still looks doable on another well suited course for Lagane. If we can get 3 Goals and be close to 10th frankly we'll be happy and know there is something of a future to work on. We really really needed this confidence boost.
Although not rookie Jesus Roniel Marte. He's onto 6 breakaways so far and the Dominican rider has been nothing if not confident! Positivity, confidence, swagger. It's nice to have some of that back, and not just coming from the fans.
Congratulations on securing that first win goal ever, great result for Lagane, the team, and the fans that never stopped believing. Definitely indeed clear progress being shown, and the season is still long enough to make even more progress and slide into the promotion zone
We left you on a more upbeat note, and the team has gone on since them to bring genuine positivity and real hope! It took it's time coming but we have enjoyed recent races imensely. The Tour du Faso has always been a noteworthy event for the team dating back to your earliest years. This time around Jay Major popped in a 2nd place sprint finish, equalling his best performance for the team. Whilst overall we claimed the Team Classification, the first time we've done that in quite a while.
Last update we got to celebate a succesfuly Win Goal in Izola and looked ahead positively to Monterrey and Zurich. Well there was the small matter of the Baltic Chain Tour and our C1 Gaol, Stage Win. The Cobbled Proglogue is a highly unique stage and one we've done well on in the past with (now PT leaders) Cataford & Altur. Could our young guns provide an outright shock? Yes! And then some! Akil Campbell powered to a victory sealing the Goal in a shock ride, whilst Darren Matthews and Hennis Hasani were 5th & 4th. We smashed the Goal and then some to go two-for-two!! We've not done that ever as a team! The race concluded with a second Teams Classification win, and i don't think we've ever won two of those in the same season before either.
Lincoln GP has become a CT staple and we've gone well here before. And we did yet again with three riders in the Top10, headlined by veteran Matthews in 5th place. Jay Major was back on the podium in the USPCC to add to his list of Top10s in what's shaping up to be his best ever season.
However like last time we leave with a word on Jesus Roniel Marte. He had 6 breakaways, easily the most on the team ahead of Jacob Kelly on 4 and Tyler Cole on 3. Well Jesus went to Thailand, got into his 7th breakaway of the year - except this time it stuck. A breakaway win in a flat classic, with Jesus claiming an outrageous 4th place.
Two Goals. A host of decent points finishes. An uptick in form and performance from the core Caribbeans. We're enjoying the good times whilst they last, knowing how quickly they can leave you. It's brought back a ton of confidence in the programme. Promotion is still a ways off and would require a few more really big results to than we've had so far. But it shows there is something working in this crazy project. Two Goals worth of cash, and could we go 4 of 5?! It's well within reach. Get hyped, we are actually feeling good about setting expectations!
Great to see you far more positive again, and congrats to that late run of great results! Sometimes, they don't come in the race you expect them from, but rather "randomly" - but at least they're in the rankings now! You surely should make some good progress there (and no, I haven't done the CT rankings yet, so I'm not sure where you're actually are right now...)
Finally the pirates are all around the place! Great to see your squad performing after the tough start this season, even more so as it's the Caribbeans that do well.
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
Give it another month and i'll be full adjusted to the new state of things and be back to the far more upbeat manager.
