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Tour de France - Pre-race thread
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 20-06-2015 18:10
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Shonak wrote:
Stromeon wrote:
...and it will probably worry Contador that he looks unable to drop him, it certainly felt like he had set out to glue himself to Contador on the climb and not let him get away at all.
No, Contador is mentally too strong. Maybe you can unnerve someone like Froome by sticking to his wheel (Dauphine '14), but if anything for Contador this is only more motivation. No worries for a champion tho.
He still has some kilos to drop for Tour best shape and has said that he's still tired from Giro, plenty of time to prepare for le Tour tho. Seeing him with this immense will to win such a small prep race skyrockets my expectations for Tour into heights neither Dauphine nor Suisse have succeeded in.
Yup, thats because Tour de Suisse generally is a shitty race. 
I have a feeling this Tour will be won the first 9 days. Zelande, Fleche-Wallone and mini-Roubaix will be carnage on stage 2, 3 and 4, hoping that is carnage metaphorically and not literal carnage... anyways, at least one of those 4 will lose a significant amount of time (+3 minutes) or abandon due to chutes everywhere those 3 first days after the time trial.
IF Froome and Quintana havent lost significant time, Im sure one of those will win it. Froome has an absolute beast team in the mountains, but I think once we reach the last week in the Alps, Quintana will be stronger. |
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 20-06-2015 18:16
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So what happens if Nibali repeats his performance from last year on the cobbled stage? I wonder if he can pull a decent gap on his rivals again, if so that should make the mountains really entertaining.
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| Strydz |
Posted on 20-06-2015 22:08
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Shonak wrote:
Some gravel road before, sweet. Prof road racing needs more gravel anyway. 
Comments like this is why I like you buddy, speaking my language!!!
Well didn't expect Contador to have a dig at all and soft pedal his way through the 4 stages but this is the one part of Contador I like, he is a real bike racer
Edited by Strydz on 20-06-2015 22:09
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Posted on 25-11-2024 06:30
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| jacobjc88 |
Posted on 20-06-2015 22:40
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Nin1388 wrote:
Nibali vs Contador vs Quintana vs Froome on descent. Who will win. Will be brilliant to watch.
Sorry to disappoint you, but not all of those mentioned above will reach the mountain stages. I just don't see that. There have been way too many crashes...Let's hope none of the favourites will get hurt - I just don't believe it. Starting to getting in Tour mood, lovely!
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| Nin1388 |
Posted on 21-06-2015 06:42
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jacobjc88 wrote:
Nin1388 wrote:
Nibali vs Contador vs Quintana vs Froome on descent. Who will win. Will be brilliant to watch.
Sorry to disappoint you, but not all of those mentioned above will reach the mountain stages. I just don't see that. There have been way too many crashes...Let's hope none of the favourites will get hurt - I just don't believe it. Starting to getting in Tour mood, lovely!
I know but for our sake (cycling fans) I hope they do. |
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| Nin1388 |
Posted on 21-06-2015 07:00
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With 2 weeks left for TdF I think I will make my predictions now.
I think Contador might just complete his double. He was not at peak even at end of Giro which is good and gives him room to improve. He must have learnt from his attempt back in 2011 when he reached peak at Giro and then struggled at TdF.
But there is obviously question of fatigue which puts him back compared to the other 3.
Also Froome is not in all destroying form like he did in 2013 which gives him much better chance. Even if Froome improves and Contador cannot follow, we can be ensured that Quintana will be there. Quintana would have been closer in 2013 itself if not for stupid Movistar strategies. But I think they would have learnt from there.
Nibali we know can come to form for big races. We also know he is likely to get atleast 2 min on other 3 in first week. So its all about if others can get time back on him. But if its not wet, then I don't think Nibali will have big advantage like he got last year.
At this point we should not underestimate Purito. He gets strong team with him essentially to races suited to him with less TT. We should not be surprised if he gets top 3. But he will be like Quintana on cobbles, I guess.
Add to that TVG, Peraud, Bardet, Pinot you get brilliant GT.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 21-06-2015 07:40
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My List of Predictions:
-Gesink wins a stage that isn't flat.
-Gesink finishes the race, inside the Top 25 of the final GC.
-Kelderman finishes just outside the Top 5 (probably 7th).
-Kelderman finishes ahead of Mollema in the GC.
-Valverde gets a free role the whole tour, finishes in the Top 5.
-Pierre Rolland finishes in the Top 15 or gets a stage win and finishes Top 3 in KOM.
-Thibaut Pinot finishes in Top 10.
-Quintana wins GC but gets only 1 stage win.
-Contador wins more stages than Quintana, fails to finish the race after a crash.
-Cobbled stage takes 10+ victims including Froome. Kelderman/Gesink gain the most of the GC guys on this stage.
Done. 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 21-06-2015 08:08
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Luis Leon Sanchez wrote:
-Cobbled stage takes 10+ victims including Froome. Kelderman/Gesink gain the most of the GC guys on this stage
Definitely a fair shout, I'd add Nibali to that Kelderman/Gesink group or the group behind and then Valverde not doing badly towing Quintana next group down. Kwiatkowski finishes near front and defends/keeps yellow, with prologue and classics week I like him for a stint in yellow if he gets in form. Even Valverde as well to fill that role, but he might have to help Nairito.
But yeah, like last year will be very interesting stage.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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| Strydz |
Posted on 21-06-2015 09:14
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jandal7 wrote:
Luis Leon Sanchez wrote:
-Cobbled stage takes 10+ victims including Froome. Kelderman/Gesink gain the most of the GC guys on this stage
Definitely a fair shout, I'd add Nibali to that Kelderman/Gesink group or the group behind and then Valverde not doing badly towing Quintana next group down. Kwiatkowski finishes near front and defends/keeps yellow, with prologue and classics week I like him for a stint in yellow if he gets in form. Even Valverde as well to fill that role, but he might have to help Nairito.
But yeah, like last year will be very interesting stage.
I have my money on the cobbled stage this year not being anywhere near as dramatic as last years with any time gaps between the serious GC guys being insignificant, maybe one or two of the next step down GC guys crashing out or lose time due to mechanicals. This is all dependant on it being dry but if it's wet then things will get hectic....... Of course I will most likely be completely wrong with this prediction 
Edited by Strydz on 21-06-2015 09:15
Hells 500 Crew and 6 x Everester
Don Rd Launching Place
Melbourne Hill Rd Warrandyte
Colby Drive Belgrave South
William Rd The Patch
David Hill Rd Monbulk
Lakeside Drive Emerald
https://www.everesting.cc/hall-of-fame/ |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 21-06-2015 11:32
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Nin1388 wrote:
Also Froome is not in all destroying form like he did in 2013 which gives him much better chance. Even if Froome improves and Contador cannot follow, we can be ensured that Quintana will be there. Quintana would have been closer in 2013 itself if not for stupid Movistar strategies. But I think they would have learnt from there.
What stupid strategies?
LLS: I like the prediction that Gesink wins a stage that ISNT flat. Im just like, if he was to win a stage, chances are (actually 100%) that he doesnt win a flat stage, lol
Edited by Riis123 on 21-06-2015 11:32
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| Nin1388 |
Posted on 21-06-2015 13:30
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Riis123 wrote:
Nin1388 wrote:
Also Froome is not in all destroying form like he did in 2013 which gives him much better chance. Even if Froome improves and Contador cannot follow, we can be ensured that Quintana will be there. Quintana would have been closer in 2013 itself if not for stupid Movistar strategies. But I think they would have learnt from there.
What stupid strategies?
They made him attack mountain before Ax 3 Domaines finish. Clearly he could have climbed with Froome, after how much effort he made. Same on finish to Mont Ventoux. |
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 21-06-2015 13:40
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I dont think Unzue told him to attack on both occasions, it was more of a decision on his own as the tempo wasnt as high when he attacked. Also, I think it surprised both the management and himself to some extend that he actually was the second best climber in the race. Clearly, he wont do that again |
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| ziga007 |
Posted on 21-06-2015 18:02
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If Contador wins TDF 2015 will he be first rider to win 3 grand tours in a row?
Alberto Contador
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 21-06-2015 23:13
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Merckx did 1972 Giro-1972 Tour-1973 Vuelta-1973 Giro which i think was the order back then (vuelta-giro-tour)
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 21-06-2015 23:27
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Strydz wrote:
jandal7 wrote:
Luis Leon Sanchez wrote:
-Cobbled stage takes 10+ victims including Froome. Kelderman/Gesink gain the most of the GC guys on this stage
Definitely a fair shout, I'd add Nibali to that Kelderman/Gesink group or the group behind and then Valverde not doing badly towing Quintana next group down. Kwiatkowski finishes near front and defends/keeps yellow, with prologue and classics week I like him for a stint in yellow if he gets in form. Even Valverde as well to fill that role, but he might have to help Nairito.
But yeah, like last year will be very interesting stage.
I have my money on the cobbled stage this year not being anywhere near as dramatic as last years with any time gaps between the serious GC guys being insignificant, maybe one or two of the next step down GC guys crashing out or lose time due to mechanicals. This is all dependant on it being dry but if it's wet then things will get hectic....... Of course I will most likely be completely wrong with this prediction
Know what you mean, I think it'll be dry and not too much or wet and amazing. But not average.
@Spilak I can't 100% recall if Vuelta or Giro was first in the year back then but either way that's right
Edited by jandal7 on 21-06-2015 23:29
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| MartijnVDD |
Posted on 22-06-2015 08:14
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I'm hoping for a yellow jersey for Van Avermaet at some point in the first week. He's performing quite well in shorter time trials lately, he can survive an echelon stage and he can take boni seconds on the hilly and cobbled stages. The same can be said of Sagan, Boom, Thomas and Kwiatkowski as well though.
Edited by MartijnVDD on 22-06-2015 08:14
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 22-06-2015 11:12
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MartijnVDD wrote:
I'm hoping for a yellow jersey for Van Avermaet at some point in the first week. He's performing quite well in shorter time trials lately, he can survive an echelon stage and he can take boni seconds on the hilly and cobbled stages. The same can be said of Sagan, Boom, Thomas and Kwiatkowski as well though.
Im also very curious of who will be able to get yellow in the first week. A climb like Huy isnt GVA's cup of tea, I would say Froome, Martin, Dumoulin and possibly Valverde (if he pulls a very good ITT) are favourites after Huy. Then its all up in the air on the cobbled stage |
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| parkersay |
Posted on 23-06-2015 07:45
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Check out my friend's complete breakdown of the yellow jersey competition in 2015. I know it is a little simplistic, but he is writing for the uninitiated cycling fans.
https://the5thq.w...
From what I understand he is going to preview all the races by the time the Tour starts.
Personally, I would rank the top 10:
Quintana
Froome
Contador
Nibali
TVG
Pinot
Bardet
Pereaud
Talanksy
Valverde |
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 23-06-2015 10:53
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Decent team. I see EBH trying to go for a stage win, and Kudus and Meintjies trying something in the mountains. |
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| Kirchen_75 |
Posted on 23-06-2015 11:33
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Im gonna predict whos gonna own the yellow jersey stage by stage.
Stage 1 - Tony Martin
Stage 2 - Tony Martin
Stage 3 - Michał Kwiatkowski
Stage 4 - Michał Kwiatkowski
Stage 5 - Michał Kwiatkowski
Stage 6 - Michał Kwiatkowski
Stage 7 - Michał Kwiatkowski
Stage 8 - Michał Kwiatkowski
Stage 9 - Michał Kwiatkowski
Stage 10 - Nibz
Stage 11 - Nibz
Stage 12 - Bertie
Stage 13 - Bertie
Stage 14 - Bertie
Stage 15 - Bertie
Stage 16 - Bertie
Stage 17 - Bertie
Stage 18 - Bertie
Stage 19 - Bertie
Stage 20 - Bertie
Stage 21 - Bertie
Bertie for the double
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