Welcome to the first race of the 2025 PT season: the Tour of Tasmania. A short stage race to open the year, for teams to find expected or unexpected optimism, or to write off as a blip in a long season if you underperform. Let’s get into it!
Profile
The course has two very straightforward stages: The opening stage is one for the sprinters, the third is a typical flat time trial. Between them is a stage for the puncheurs with a tricky finale with two steep ramps. The question here will be: Will it be tough enough to bring about some gaps in the GC? For the past two years, more than 140 riders have finished with the same time on this stage, leaving (almost) exclusively the time trial as the GC decider. But before that, time gaps were quite common here. With a new racing environment, we can expect a first indication how these types of stages play out.
Favorites
Rider
FL
MM
HI
TT
ST
RS
AC
Wirtgen
73
77
75
84
76
75
72
Würtz
77
69
71
83
78
78
70
Dunbar
69
77
76
82
74
77
68
Zmorka
74
64
66
82
74
75
70
Bernal
71
78
74
81
80
80
69
Mullen
75
66
70
81
75
74
70
Mano
71
74
75
80
72
73
66
Ganna
76
71
73
80
74
81
73
Evenepoel
75
77
77
79
79
81
71
Herregodts
73
75
75
79
74
78
70
Phinney
69
77
73
79
71
68
69
Oliveira
70
71
72
79
76
72
72
Of course, how the hilly stage shakes out will be a massively determining factor in who of these favorites will actually be fighting for the GC crown. There is one big favorite in any case, though: Wirtgen. He has finished on the podium of this race for four consecutive years, but fell just short of Phinney three times, and then Mullen last year. As the best time trialist on paper and one of the better puncheurs, he will try to finally get that trophy.
If the hilly stage remains as tame as it has been in the previous two years, EA Vesuvio even get two bites at the apple, as Würtz is the second best time trialist here. Indeed, the two now-teammates have shared the podium in both those years, one 2nd and one 3rd place for each. Zmorka, who won the time trial last year but was indeed one of the few riders who didn’t manage to arrive with the first group on the hills, also hopes for a less selective hill stage, and the same is true to a lesser extent for defending champion Mullen, Ganna, and last year’s 4th place finisher Oliveira.
The main challenger to EA Vesuvio supremacy is PT newcomer Dunbar. After dominating PCT last year, this will certainly only be the first of many more duels with Wirtgen in particular. Can he make his mark right away? A podium should be in the cards to give promoted Indosat a nice head start. Bernal is the second main rider to mention who will hope to use the hilly stage to his advantage, which is also true for Evenepoel, the runaway favorite to take the white jersey.
Rounding out the list of the major contenders are Mano, part of a threatening King Power duo, Herregodts, and record winner Phinney.
Outsiders
Rider
FL
MM
HI
TT
ST
RS
AC
Leknessund
73
76
74
78
77
81
69
Munton
67
74
73
78
73
74
64
Ioannidis
67
74
73
78
76
74
70
Kiriakidis
68
74
73
78
72
73
71
Christapopoulos
73
68
73
78
72
72
69
Ferreyra
72
72
72
78
72
74
69
Kämna
71
74
71
78
76
73
67
Hayter
78
68
70
78
75
78
73
Pelikan
75
68
70
78
74
72
69
Plapp
72
78
76
77
74
78
68
O'Brien
75
71
75
77
74
77
69
Kung
73
72
73
77
74
72
71
Jussaume
70
65
73
77
74
73
65
Foss
69
76
72
77
77
79
69
Potocki
71
72
72
77
75
77
69
Vlasov
72
74
72
77
76
71
69
Cavagna
77
69
74
76
75
74
71
The field of contenders for the lower Top 10 and remaining Top 20 spots is very deep and somewhat unpredictable. Leknessund and Plapp stand out for their climbing skills, the latter should also have a decent shot at some U25 points behind Evenepoel, as has Jussaume.
We also see the depth that some teams are bringing to this race, with two more EA Vesuvio riders and no less than four guys from ELCO – ABEA. Kung meanwhile has the best chance for the PCT representatives to shine.
Sprinters
Rider
FL
ST
RS
SP
AC
TT
Groenewegen
73
74
71
82
81
64
Farantakis
74
75
72
82
80
72
Halvorsen
76
74
71
81
80
63
Samolenkov
74
75
71
81
79
69
Bonifazio
79
68
75
80
80
55
Vesely
72
73
67
80
79
56
Kragh Andersen
76
68
72
80
75
64
Lutsyshyn
70
69
73
79
80
64
Gross
74
69
75
79
79
62
Minali
73
70
74
79
79
57
Szarka
77
72
73
78
78
61
Van der Kooij
73
75
74
78
77
60
Ackermann
72
75
71
77
80
61
Given just one flat stage, the sprinting field isn’t super deep, but with the chance of a day in yellow on the table, some of the division’s best have made their way to Australia. All of Groenewegen, Farantakis and Halvorsen look like good bets to feature at or near the top of the podium not just here but throughout the year, as do Samolenkov, Vesely and promotion hero Bonifazio.
Puncheurs
Rider
FL
MM
HI
RS
ST
SP
AC
Mohoric
72
77
83
72
78
67
77
Gidich
72
80
83
77
78
65
75
Skujins
68
75
81
74
77
66
73
McCarthy
69
74
81
74
79
64
73
Bagioli
71
77
80
73
77
71
78
Müller
70
74
80
71
76
66
73
Buchmann
70
78
80
72
71
64
71
Kelderman
68
75
80
72
77
65
69
Schmid
72
78
79
78
73
70
79
Kanerva
69
72
79
69
75
64
76
Kron
73
75
79
75
75
66
73
Formolo
71
79
79
75
75
68
70
Gebrezgabihier
68
75
79
74
74
67
69
Aleotti
74
76
78
77
78
65
75
Gaudu
73
75
78
75
78
68
70
Ackermann
72
71
77
71
75
77
80
Paret-Peintre
72
77
77
75
73
72
74
While one part of the hilly stage will be focused on where the time trialists end up, the other part is of course the fight for the stage itself. And here again we see EA Vesuvio at the top of the list with Mohoric, one of the fairly clear top 2 alongside Gidich – King Power, too, bring a strong squad here.
Among the long list of other puncheurs, Bagioli and Schmid are the ones you would most back in what we expect to be a sprint finish from a group of whatever size it might end up being, unless Ackermann and, to a slightly lesser degree, Paret-Peintre have stuck around, in which case they, too, should be marked closely.
Admittedly we bring a weak team for the hilly stage and the TT with no Valter around, meaning we go all in for Groenewegen. Curious to see if and potentially how well our leadout can work here. Kind of hoping De Lie doesn’t get involved due to his high ACC stat, prioritizing to use Räim and Salby as his last two leadouts.
Vesuvio going all in here looks cool, bringing both Wirtgen and Würtz, but also combining them with Mohoric. Sounds brilliant on paper, but if we get gaps of any kind on the hilly stage, I wouldn’t be confident Mohoric’s presence is ideal for Würtz.
We are just here for the experience for Carlos! Happy with whatever happens here. Could be surprised though. But obviously no points for us so doesn’t really matter either way
While Wirtgen is the big favorive I feel Dunbar will take this for some reason. Could maybe Mohoric (like Ember says) ruin a bit for Wirtgen?
Also excited to see what Bernal and Evenepoel will do, I think they are both potential winners here. Might be a perfect Evenepoel race, TT, hilly stage and only 3 stages so his sucky rec wont come into play
Im hyped for the season start. Very curious how my team will do here as this can develop in a couple different ways. Plapp, Herregodts and to a lesser degree Foss are all good options here and can score quite well here. But from a top 5 gc to finishing outside the top 20, everything seems somewhat possible so this surely is a high variance race for us.
Decided not to bring our best puncheurs here, to avoid the risk of the team sitting up behind the “Leader” in the hilly stage. It’s always a gamble, as a better Leader on the Hills could also mean more riders staying close to him in the front.
The hope is to see Farantakis work as a new top sprinter, and to see the depth guys trying to fill up in the 10-25 GC spots. Time Will tell if we are up for a good start, og trail behind immidiately. We need races like this to sum up to a decent amount of points.
Thanks for the preview! Excited to get everything started this year. This isn't a race we really have anyone at all for GC for unless the hilly stage is ridiculously unselective, but some luck from AKA in the sprint would make me happy at least.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
We're here only targeting points from the TT and hoping to get lucky with Hofstetter in the sprint. The TT field is completely stacked, so I think my best expectations just went down from a Podium to a Top 5. This won't be the greatest start to the season but maybe we can get into a break or two for some bonuses. No real GC hopes with that hill stage either.
We're here to have some fun in the breaks and give APP and Küng the opportunity to fight in PT for once. No points on offer for us, so it can only work out well.
I did just the opposite of SotD, sending my best puncheur here hoping that the others will help him in the hilly stage and stay close to the front...
Looking at the puncheurs list, though, he might be too far down. What speaks in Schmid's favour is his Acc/Res combo, which seems to be fairly important in medium length uphill finishes - but on the other hand, the final kicker might just be too short for him then... We'll see.
We do have guys on all lists except for the GC favourites, so hopefully it will be a decent race for us...
Thanks for the preview, good luck to all. Don't yet know whether to look forward to the season or to hope it's over asap, though ^^
Thanks for the nice reports and congrats to ember! Good to see Aker starts well to make the positive predictions true. Also a nice start for us with Pringle in white after missing out on the break earlier. So stage 2 is about actually getting someone into the break and fight for the KoM points, and then we'll see if APP is able to pull something off and how the TTers do in comparison to the pumcheurs.
Decent start for us! Sad that Mudgway wasn't able to stay in the peloton after the breakaway. Still not too bad. Keen for the TT to see how Howson goes with that.
Not quite the start I had hoped for. Let’s hope that a more dedicated team in Qatar Can convert into a better result. 4th is a waste of 3RD’s for Farantakis.
That is the perfect start for us, super happy to see him win already Last season he only won in Paris-Nice, also then helped by Räim, and it is great to «get going» on the first try. Especially with such a leadout! Curious if it was Salby or De Lie, or maybe even a rouleur like Swift doing the work before Räim took over. If it was Salby, I will be thrilled the leadout we hoped for worked out so well
Congrats ember! Love to see a win for the team that seemed to have the leading leadout throughout the sprint preparation. A good sign for things to come (although a bad one for evonik i guess since we wont often make a train)
Anonymous stage for us as expected. Would have been nice to see Kurianov get a point but im just happy he sprintered. He never had a good wheel anyway.
Tour of Tasmania 
