Finally it's prediction season! We'll start it with a full set of lazy (i.e. not number based) predictions!
KBs Lazy PT Prediction
General thoughts: My predictions for this division are usually the worst because I still struggle to fully understand all the factors that influence scoring here (importance of depth, impact of leaders etc.).
Position
Team
Thoughts
1
Evonik - ELKO
They still have the Lecuisinier-MAL double act, but now they also have an incredible stage racing depth, a really interesting cobbler and a versatile TTer (both on loan). It’s clearly a title push and I would be surprised if not finally a successful one.
2
King Power
They don’t have a world beater for any terrain, but they have good leaders for all terrains. In combination with their usual depth this could end in a podium finish.
3
EA Vesuvio
I usually overrate their TT-heavy approach, but with the two best TTers of the world in their rows they should be able to score heavily in all TT-heavy races. They have secondary leaders (and some depth) for most other terrains too, so I guess it’s going up again for them.
4
Aker - MOT
How did they manage to rebuild a division-winning team in only two season? They don’t have a great stage racer, but Anderberg is among the best cobblers in the world after his training, SKA should still dominate prologues, and Valter and Romo are as scary a duo for the hills as Konychev and Groenewegen for the flats.
5
Xero Racing
Areruya and Pidcock are their big stars, but behind them is a really nice set of secondary leaders with Olivier and Vermeersch as well as some reasonable depth.
6
Indosat Ooredoo
Dunbar won’t be as dominant as in PCT, but he’s still a guaranteed scorer. Latour and Stüssi nicely cover the GTs and Gaviria is by far the best sprinter of the division. Add some nice depth and you have the best of the promoted teams.
7
Polar
The Finnish will mostly rely on Bernal and TGH (plus some depth) for the stage races. It will be interesting to see what Bagioli can achieve in PT and how good Mullen can still score, but they have proven to be a top 10 contender in the past and so they are this season. But to be fair the teams from here to 21st place could end anywhere.
8
Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
They were the surprise of the last season, but it’s hard to see them repeat a podium finish. It should still be enough for a top 10 finish by adding up a lot of sub-top results and depth.
9
Team UBS
Kudus wasn’t enough to avoid relegation for Moser last season, but this year he’s accompanied by some more potential scorers like Godoy, Buchmann or Jacobs. With the close competition this season this could be enough for a top 10.
10
Team Puma - SAP
Herklotz is still enough to nearly guarantee a top 10 finish, but behind him the rebuild is taking its toll. There are some really interesting riders and lots of potential scorers, but no individual one who will end up high in the rankings.
11
Cedevita
Pogacar, Siric and Philipsen are good leaders in their terrains. They also have some really interesting secondary leaders in Schlegel and Ackermann. If those perform well the team should end in a safe mid-table spot.
12
Gazelle
Last season’s winners will still have their usual depth scoring, but with their leaders declining (Dombrowski, Teunissen) or gone (Lutsenko) this will only be enough to finish mid-table while rebuildung.
13
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Much will depend on how well Per handles the new competition after several rival trainings. But he has good support and Carthy and Skjelmose should also be able to score nicely.
14
Sony - Force India
Haig and Zmorka are good PT leaders and they have solid riders for the mountains and hills. In the tough relegation fight of half the division I assume, this should be enough to stay in.
15
ELCO - ABEA
The Greeks don’t have the one big leader like most other teams, but they have decent enough riders for all terrains and some solid depth as well. I think it will be enough to stay in, but in this area of the rankings it will come down to marginal differences.
16
Rabobank
Gerts is still among the best cobblers, Champoussin and Formolo are a good duo for the hills and stage hunting, if they actually try. Evenepoel is finally maxed, but in his niche there are still better riders. It will be a tough season once again, but the Dutch will make it work once again.
17
cycleYorkshire
Morton is still among the best stage racers after his decline. Cullaigh and Kemboi are a great duo for the sprints. But they will have to make Yates still work and need the occasional surprise result to avoid relegation.
18
Fastned
Vansevenant only gets better, van Hooydonck should still be a consistent scorer and Phinney and Wellens will still get GC top 10s, but not much more. I fear the ageing core of the team won’t be enough to avoid relegation.
19
Los Pollos Hermanos
The Mexicans somewhat expect relegation and it will be a tough year, but they’re not far off safety. Higuita, Halvorsen and the TT department probably won’t be enough though.
20
Grieg-Maersk
They sold Würtz and got a future dominator for the cobbles in del Grosso. But it’s hard to see where their scoring should come from apart from Pedersen – and on top he has to fight all those freshly trained cobblers.
21
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo Pro Cycling
Oomen is a good GC leader and Gamper did well in the PCT cobbles last season. But behind them the scoring potential isn’t high enough for PT and it seems unlikely Bonifazio will repay all the love he gets from the team.
22
Jura GIANTS
Groves will have his moments, as will Schmid. Apart from them it’s all about rebuilding a core for their next stay in PT. Most of us thought so last season as well, but it’s hard to see how the Swiss could repeat their marvellous last season.
General thoughts: There is an incredible depth in most terrains: 16 80+ climbers, 15 80+ sprinters and 11 80+ puncheurs. This will make it hard for any team to dominate and it’s gonna be a closer than ever division with many teams being disappointed that their assumed top-level leaders won’t even top 10 in quite some races.
Position
Team
Thoughts
1
MOL Cycling Team
The Almeida training should make him the dominant climber of the division, Benoot has some races he’s a proven points-guarantee in and then there’s still Ewen and Ardila who will have their share too. Behind them the roster isn’t impressive, but a top-heavy approach could actually work out when all the other teams are fighting for and sharing the sub-top scores.
2
Hunter Valley Cycling
The (newly branded) Aussies should score the opposite way: they have sub-top leaders in all terrains and a great TTT unit which should allow them to score nicely in most races while adding the occasional big score to push them up the rankings.
3
Minions
It’s mostly the same reasoning for the Minions: their well set up in most terrains and add a good TTT unit.
4
DK Žalgiris
They have the best pure TTers in the division and know how to plan around them. If they also get Lutsenko to work they’ a promotion contender.
5
Assa Abloy
They profit from keeping their PT leaders Gesbert, Dainese and most of all Wisniowski, who is still among the top 3 cobblers of the division. If he performs accordingly a promotion push is likely. But truth been told from here on to the relegation fight most teams are so close together it could go any way.
6
Specialized
It’s all about how much scoring they can get out of Kasperkiewicz, who’s probably the most well-rounded cobbler with the best support cast as well. Their other leaders are decent enough to keep them in promotion contention if the Polish performs great.
7
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
There’s another team with many sub-top leaders and a good TTT unit, though the overall quality is a bit below the higher ranked teams with a similar setup. This could be enough to end as the best promoted team.
8
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
The Austrians have picked up some nice (though ageing) leaders in transfers with de Bie, Lammertink or Grosu. Add some depth in most terrains and it could be enough for a top 10 finish.
9
Everesting
They rely mostly on Stannard and Rodrigues and if this works out a top 10 is possible. If it doesn’t (and the division is as close as I assume) it could also end in a fight against relegation.
10
Try - Eni
The Norwegians are another of those teams with sub-top leaders in quite some terrains. If Demare is able to use his sprint advantage in the many hilly stage races they should be fine.
11
Trans Looney Tunes
With them it’s a bet on Padun and Zabel performing according to their stats. There’s a case they (once again) won’t do that, but with the new game engine I think it’s actually possible.
12
Bralirwa - Cegeka
Girmay is already a good bet for all cobbles races ending in some kind of group sprint and they also have a good stage racing department. And Teggart could prove an even bigger threat (and source of points) in the C2 races than last season already.
13
Ekoi - Le Creuset
A bet on Zepuntke is always risky, but he should be scoring at least consistently in the cobbles races. Apart from him their leaders are all sub-top in the best case, but they also have proven to be consistent scorers which should be enough for a mid-table finish.
14
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
The next promoted team is another of those well-rounded squads which dominate the mid-table here. Their stand-out rider (though not top-scorer) is Schomber for the rare prologues, if they can get him score there nicely this could be the points to keep them out of the relegation ranks.
15
Sauber Petronas Racing
Hirschi is a beast, but he’ll have to dominate the hills in a stacked field for them to really climb the rankings. At least a small jump from their traditional 16th place should be in the cards.
16
Spark Team NZ
Coquard is the best sprinter of the division, but in a stacked field (and with the recent history of top-sprinter teams relegating) it’s good they also have a solid squad around him. Rodriguez’ U25 points could prove crucial in this close PCT field.
17
Lotto-Caloi
I think the Belgians are the first team in immediate relegation danger. They have solid riders in most terrains, but solid could prove to be only good enough for depth scoring in this year’s PCT and if that’s the case it will be a tough season for them.
18
McCormick Pro Cycling
Sosa was a revelation in last year’s ToA, but he’s only one of many climbers of similar strength this season. If Yates will outperform some better climbers they could rise in the rankings, but it could be a nail-biter this season.
19
Zwift - Newton Foundation
When you first see Elosegui and Jorgenson you’re scared. When you see where they fit in this year’s climber field you’re still scared, but this time that it could be a surprisingly hard season for last year’s CT dominators.
20
Bolt - Eesti
The Estonians will have to fight hard to not make it back-to-back relegation. Peak is a really nice rider and they look good in all flat races, but so look many other teams and they lack any other leaders guaranteeing scoring.
21
Colombini Kometa
Powless and Eastman could score really well, but I don’t see who’ll do so behind those two. They’re among the top contenders for going down this season.
22
IESE ProCycling Team
Novak looks nice without the context of the other teams, the TTT unit is strong as usually. But apart from that it’s understandable they were frustrated about their transfer season as another immediate relegation seems probable.
23
Duvel-Tsingtao
Stallaert still could score some nice results in the cobbles races, but with the division’s immense depth in all other relevant terrains their leaders don’t seem strong enough to keep them up.
24
DeNA RoadStars
Cras looks nice on his own (but less so in comparison to the other climbers in the division). Apart from him it’s all about keeping as much talent in next year’s CT as possible for their long-term approach, because I see no way they could avoid relegation.
General thoughts: It’s hard to see any dominating riders in any terrain, mostly because the top is really deep, but in case of the cobbles because there is no real top, probably allowing PCT riders to gain even more points than last season in the C2 cobbles races. This is mostly (but not entirely) caused by the mid-transfer disband of PolderStrijders who would have had a pretty dominating cobbles squad this season.
Position
Team
Thoughts
1
Kraftwerk Man Machine
They have some decent stage racers, they have the best sprinter of the division (plus another decent one), they have good TTers (individually and in depth), they have a kind of cobbles squad (which is more than most other teams can offer). In short: they’re the team to beat this season.
2
Peugeot - Bancolombia
Galta should be the best stage racer of the division (though less dominant than Chiarello and Jorgenson in the last two seasons), van Lerberghe is probably the best all-round cobbler (though without much of a support), the duo of Thomas and Kopfauf makes them hard to beat in TT-heavy races and their hills department is decent as well, including some hilly sprinters.
3
Bianchi Enel
They have great depth for all kind of uphill races and two great (Moscon) or good (Smith) leaders for this terrains. Gibbons and Korosec are a nice sprinter duo as well. With the flexibility to plan around those strengths they should be set for promotion.
4
Podium Ambition
The pirates may not look like a set promotion contender on first look, but they have great depth in the hills and TTs, they have the best cobbles squad of the division (though they’re lacking a clear leader there), they have an armada of more-dimensional sprinters like Lagane, Norbert or Hennis. As long as they plan their schedule around those strengths they should be a promotion contender.
5
SEE Turtles
The Turtles are still strong in all kind of TT-heavy races, but finally they have added some riders who can climb. I overrated them last season, but they are high up in the rankings again.
6
Euskadi-Murias
This should be the season the Basques finally make a jump up in the rankings. Turgis could be a great addition, Sütterlin should be the best TTer of the division and the likes of Munoz and Serrano were already good in the past.
7
Ethiopian Airlines
Buitrago, Perea and Chavanne should be good scorers in the right kind of races. And thay have a really good depth in the mountains and the hills. With the bunch of new teams this could be enough to enter the promotion fight.
8
Euskotren - Pays Basque
Darbinyan could be among the best cobbles scorers of the division, even more so as he has some support (in contrast to most other teams on this terrain). Lafay has proven what he is capable of, Politt as well. If Stocek or Berthet do fine as well they could enter the promotion fight.
9
Tafjord Kraft
The team is in a heavy rebuild and the roster looks like a solid mid-table finisher with riders like Eriksson or Belevics for some results in the present and a bunch of nice talents for the future.
10
Glanbia
Meintjes is among the top 3 stage racers in the division, but apart from the usual deep TT squad there’s not much support in regards of scoring.
11
IncaLine Pro Cycling
The Peruvians could end as the best of the ‘real’ rookie teams. They have some really good depth for the hills and stage races, which won’t be rewarded too much in CT, but will set them up well once they sign a fitting leader.
12
THE ONE - Fox God
A small rise in the rankings is in the cards for the Japanese outfit. Kuroeda is among the better cobblers of the division but lacks real support. They have some good options for the mountains and hills as well as a decent sprinter. That should be good enough for nice results once again, but probably not for a constant high scoring.
13
Parmalat - Ecopetrol
The Italians are another team with a bunch of secondary stage racers and puncheurs. But most of them lack the punch necessary for bigger results because of declines which is a recurring theme in all terrains.
14
Team Zappes Kölsch
The Germans have some nice riders like Budyak, Walscheid, Tejada or Carr, but none of them will be high-scoring constantly.
15
Air New Zealand-Prada
The roster mostly looks like those of the past seasons when the Kiwis fought at the bottom of the rankings and I don’t see much reason for hope. Fabbro and Borisavljevic are nice, but there’s not much there apart from them.
16
Kone-Nordea
The duo of Manninen and Kiskonen looks really nice, but there aren’t many other point scorers in the squad. Their team-building looks nice nonetheless with an impressive quota of Finnish riders in the squad.
Thanks for getting the conversations started. Think the 3 division winners make a lot of sense although I might argue for Peugot over Kraftwerk in CT. Probably put Assa Abloy higher in PCT but will do my own preview later on that.
For McCormick 18th would be a disappointment after finishing 11th last year with what I think was a weaker roster. But definitely agree that the teams in mid-pack are very evenly balanced, add the game version changes to that and the 5thish to 20thish range could go a lot of ways. The balance between HC and C1 is more balanced this year between the stage racers and the pure climbers with Andorra and Maroc moving up so hopefully that helps us.
Love to see you start the show kandesnunzler26! I will be happy to end up 2nd and I really wish I had gotten some support on the cobbles, but ended up always prioritizing something else...
In general we agree a lot on our rankings I see, but it is where we are different (and in some places quite a lot) it will be really interesting imo!
I personally can't be unhappy at all with being predicted to finish 2nd! Think it's going to be a tough PCT to predict, especially moving into a new game with a wide variety of team builds. Still I have to be happy that there is faith in us
Would be happy with 5th, and I'm looking forward to see how we'll fare on the new game. Don't know much about the mechanics, other than stamina apparently playing a bigger role, which generally should be positive for Gesbert and Dainese but could hurt Wisniowski somewhat. Also a lot of good riders signed during transfers from other teams that means what don't really have an outright favorite in any terrain, but hopefully depth scoring should be alright.
Think the trainings will eat into Per's scoring quite a bit, but like the optimism of 13th. Just looking at PT for now, I think I'd probably have Fastned and cycleyorkshire a bit higher and UBS a bit lower, but ageee with much of your list.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Can't be happy with kb's 22nd place prediction, but have to admit I likely have the worst PT team this year. So it will all be about planning and race luck, let's hope I'll get plenty of the latter
@kb, I don't really agree with your UBS assessment. Sadly, as I'd love to see them in the Top 10. But you might have overlooked that Gaviria actually scored even more points for Moser than Kudus did last year, so it's not like Kudus alone almost saved them. And I'm not that coninved that Godoy, Buchmann, Jacobs and Müller will easily score those 1,600+ points Gaviria got for Moser. UBS' main hope has to be that the division is generally weaker than last year to reach safety. It's possible (much more than for my team), but it won't be easy - and having no singler rider above 68 Spr also means quite some potential points gone without even trying... Still hoping that they can stay up, though!
On the other hand, fully agree with Evonik as the top favourites, with King Power as their main rivals. Lierse and Grieg could indeed be the teams most at risk besides mine, so I think that's some solid work there! And as you say, things could be shuffled in any order in between!
Can't be happy with kb's 22nd place prediction, but have to admit I likely have the worst PT team this year. So it will all be about planning and race luck, let's hope I'll get plenty of the latter
@kb, I don't really agree with your UBS assessment. Sadly, as I'd love to see them in the Top 10. But you might have overlooked that Gaviria actually scored even more points for Moser than Kudus did last year, so it's not like Kudus alone almost saved them. And I'm not that coninved that Godoy, Buchmann, Jacobs and Müller will easily score those 1,600+ points Gaviria got for Moser. UBS' main hope has to be that the division is generally weaker than last year to reach safety. It's possible (much more than for my team), but it won't be easy - and having no singler rider above 68 Spr also means quite some potential points gone without even trying... Still hoping that they can stay up, though!
Better predicting you in last and then you finish in 15th as the other way around
I agree that UBS could also end in the relegation zone, but to be fair I think so could anyone from Polar downwards. And it's a lazy prediction, so I didn't look into last years points etc. but just looked at the top riders of the division and then at each squad individually. And my PT predictions are usually way off, so it's pretty likely you're right here
Nice to see us being predicted out of the relegation ranks. We are in a kind of transition year and my goal was to get enough scoring guys to keep us safe from relegation in order to give my two young talents another year to develop. Next year we will need to find a more sustainable way in FA however, not just 1 year survival.
@kb - that's a rough prediction in 23rd for Duvel - Tsingtao. It only slightly helps to note that you had us down for 15th in CT last season, and ended up 10 spots higher. Clearly it shows we've got different ideas on squad-building, but that's the fun of the man-game! I have to ask though, did you have a bad experience with Belgian or Chinese beer in the past?
@Laurens - you had us for 4th last year, so I'll take the 12th prediction with a similar grain of slight overoptimism
Thanks both for taking the time to think through the divisions - realistically staving off relegation will be a win for us this year!
@kb - that's a rough prediction in 23rd for Duvel - Tsingtao. It only slightly helps to note that you had us down for 15th in CT last season, and ended up 10 spots higher. Clearly it shows we've got different ideas on squad-building, but that's the fun of the man-game! I have to ask though, did you have a bad experience with Belgian or Chinese beer in the past?
I don't drink any beer (don't tell anyone else ), so it's not about that
I hope I underrate you once again (especially after buying a third of your pre-transfers squad), but apart from Stallaert none of your leaders is among the top 10 of the division in their respective terrains (most are realistically more around 15th place) and at least half the division consists of well-rounded squads with equal and / or better leaders (often not by much, but with the immense depth in most terrains I fear by enough on the long term), not even counting those teams who have the top dogs.
Very happy to be "lazily" placed in 2nd for the prediction from you kb and also in promotion by Laurens. We've got some expectations to live up to this season
