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GP Lugano - Discussion
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| liefwarrior |
Posted on 30-05-2024 14:13
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 864
Joined: 04-07-2019
PCM$: 300.00
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 GP Lugano [1.1] | 2022 |  Gonzalo Serrano | Late Attack | | 2021 |  Michael Van Stayen | Reduced Sprint | | 2020 |  Pascal Ackermann | Reduced Sprint | | 2019 |  Cyril Gautier | Reduced Sprint |
This report will be brought to you by Imladrik.
Welcome to Switzerland where the true puncheurs get one of their few opportunities to shine in this year's ProContinental Tour. There is no need to bring your TT-bike along and the semi-mountainous terrain levels out too far from the finish for the grimpeurs to benefit. I'm not sure on what the three final climbs are called but the first comes with 50 kilometres remaining, the next at just over 20km and the last summits within 10km of the finish. They've always been somewhat selective, but never have they been decisive: the race is usually won via a group sprint, with the exception of last year. There Serrano upset many stronger riders with a late downhill attack.
History suggests that our winner will likely be the rider who, having survived the many bumps along the road, has the most energy left to outlast his competitors in the final dash to the line. They will need to combine the ability to follow any uphill accelerations with a fast finish come the flat. They will need to look like Ackermann, like Van Stayen, or like this year's outright favourite: Arnaud Demare! He will face some stiff competition though. Alberto Dainese is no slouch in the sprint but there are questions as to whether he'll make the selection. Edward Theuns has had an excellent season on the cobblestones, he has the experience necessary to pick the right moment to strike. Hugo Houle is another name with much history behind it, a win here would provide something of a swansong given how age appears to have impacted him thus far.
| SPRINTERS | | FL | MT | HI | ST | RS | SP | AC | DH | |  Arnaud Demare | ★★★★★ | 73 | 67 | 80 | 75 | 72 | 82 | 81 | 63 |  Hugo Houle | ★★★★☆ | 77 | 65 | 74 | 75 | 70 | 78 | 77 | 68 |  Edward Theuns | ★★★★☆ | 72 | 67 | 74 | 76 | 73 | 77 | 76 | 67 |  Josip Rumac | ★★★☆☆ | 71 | 72 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 74 | 76 | 69 |  Sergey Luchshenko | ★★★☆☆ | 72 | 65 | 75 | 77 | 72 | 75 | 75 | 72 |  Alberto Dainese | ★★☆☆☆ | 76 | 62 | 69 | 75 | 76 | 81 | 82 | 70 |  Clement Russo | ★★☆☆☆ | 73 | 65 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 76 | 78 | 64 |  Luca Wackermann | ★☆☆☆☆ | 74 | 68 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 72 | 64 |  Martin Weiss | ★☆☆☆☆ | 70 | 63 | 76 | 75 | 70 | 73 | 74 | 68 |
That final trio of hills do offer some opportunities for an enterprising attack. It'll probably take something to hold off the chasing pack though, as the route is much more intermittent than constant when it comes to the fluctuation in gradient. Long stretches of flat tarmac provide plenty of opportunity for the chase to drag escapees back, provided it can maintain its cohesion. It isn't all gloomy for those puncheurs that lean more towards the climbing aspect - as Serrano showed, it is possible to hold a gap on the final descent. Joshua Edmondson's poor finishing has seen him struggle to break in to the Top 10 here despite numerous attempts. Perhaps he or Anthony Turgis will be able to outfox the peloton? Otherwise teammates Jhonatan Narvaez and Andrea Bagioli could form a dangerous duo.
| PUNCHEURS | | FL | MT | HI | ST | RS | AC | FT | DH | |  Anthony Turgis | ★★★★☆ | 73 | 67 | 79 | 76 | 78 | 77 | 83 | 67 |  Joshua Edmondson | ★★★★☆ | 70 | 69 | 79 | 75 | 72 | 76 | 68 | 72 |  Jhonatan Narvaez | ★★★☆☆ | 70 | 72 | 77 | 71 | 71 | 74 | 73 | 67 | | Andrea Bagioli | ★★☆☆☆ | 71 | 71 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 76 | 75 | 67 |  Roman Gladysh | ★★☆☆☆ | 72 | 70 | 77 | 73 | 72 | 76 | 74 | 69 | | Mauro Schmid | ★★☆☆☆ | 72 | 74 | 77 | 71 | 77 | 77 | 76 | 74 |  Sven Erik Bystrom | ★☆☆☆☆ | 72 | 68 | 79 | 75 | 72 | 76 | 78 | 73 |  Nicola Bagioli | ★☆☆☆☆ | 70 | 71 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 76 | 76 | 66 |  Pello Bilbao | ★☆☆☆☆ | 70 | 66 | 78 | 76 | 70 | 74 | 66 | 65 |  Andrea Vendrame | ★☆☆☆☆ | 72 | 62 | 76 | 75 | 73 | 75 | 67 | 67 |
It isn't only the late attackers that the favourite teams will need to watch out for, they will also have to carefully manage the gap to the breakaway. There are four rather significant ascents in the first half of the parcour which will sap the energy of the rouleurs pulling the peloton. Although the latter half is much flatter, it isn't flat. A weak group of domestiques combined with a strong group of baroudeurs could be a recipe for disaster: the sort of mixture which will cook up this event's first breakaway win.
| BAROUDEURS | | FL | MT | HI | ST | RS | SP | AC | DH | | Olivier Lecourt De Billot | ★★★★☆ | 75 | 58 | 69 | 74 | 73 | 61 | 74 | 64 | | Torkil Veyhe | ★★★☆☆ | 80 | 66 | 68 | 66 | 71 | 56 | 78 | 71 | | Patrick Gamper | ★★★☆☆ | 77 | 62 | 66 | 77 | 77 | 63 | 71 | 72 | | Peter Varga | ★★★☆☆ | 77 | 61 | 66 | 76 | 73 | 65 | 80 | 74 |  Felix Sprenger | ★★☆☆☆ | 71 | 66 | 66 | 72 | 69 | 66 | 75 | 77 |  Gilles Heymes | ★★☆☆☆ | 67 | 75 | 71 | 74 | 71 | 54 | 58 | 61 | | Aaron Verwilst | ★★☆☆☆ | 76 | 65 | 67 | 70 | 72 | 65 | 66 | 64 | | Thomas Koep | ★☆☆☆☆ | 67 | 74 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 51 | 56 | 64 |  Marc Christian Garby | ★☆☆☆☆ | 65 | 79 | 70 | 71 | 76 | 52 | 70 | 63 | | Volodymyr Dzhus | ★☆☆☆☆ | 65 | 76 | 70 | 74 | 74 | 58 | 75 | 63 |  Alexandre Balmer | ★☆☆☆☆ | 67 | 72 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 61 | 68 | 75 |
Edited by Ezeefreak on 02-06-2024 07:33
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 30-05-2024 15:54
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1123
Joined: 26-04-2020
PCM$: 800.00
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Thanks lief for the preview! 
I'm curious how the race will pan out. Don't have high hopes for Edmondson tbh, but you never know.
MG - Lotto - Caloi
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| seancoll |
Posted on 30-05-2024 17:02
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Domestique
Posts: 481
Joined: 20-12-2022
PCM$: 500.00
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expectations are very low here but hopefully it goes down to a bunch sprint where someone like Trillini might actually be able to contend. Duchesne isn't all that bad in a group sprint either.
Hoping for just a couple points at least to end on a decent note.
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 30-05-2024 17:08
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2073
Joined: 11-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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Had two surplus race days for Dainese, so sent him here. Don't expect him to make the final selection, but if he's lucky with positioning, I could see him make it. Whether he has any energy left for the sprint is a different question, though.
Our primary hope is Chaves, but there are certainly puncheurs here with a much better finish than him. Either way, crossing my fingers for a good result!
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| ember |
Posted on 30-05-2024 17:12
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Team Leader
Posts: 6849
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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Very cool profile for this race, really opens the door for anyone! Curious to see what kind of race scenario we get this year  |
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| Caspi |
Posted on 30-05-2024 17:13
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 370
Joined: 22-09-2022
PCM$: 10300.00
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Looking for a top-10. We obviously don't have a favorite for this race, but decent squad depth should enable some kind of result
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 30-05-2024 17:23
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1120
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Thanks for the preview, lief!
Demare clearly the favourite here, but I fear he'll be forced to cover every move, so I'd bet on someone else taking the win. We should be covered for every scenario with our Teuns-Russo double act. Good luck to all!
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 30-05-2024 22:45
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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Final home race of the year! I really hope we can get something better than 13th, which is our best result to date.
Aregger didn't work out last year, but I still try more or less the same strategy with Bol, who's a faster sprinter and could make the selection. If he doesn't, Theuns should definitely be there, though, and he's also a rider who can get a big result from a late attack.
In case the course is more selective than in recent years, Schmid has shown in San Sebastian that he can be pretty successful from a small group, too. And he's pretty strong downhill and has some great fighting spirit, so this could be one for him again.
But on paper, there should be no way past Démare anyway - maybe for Dainese if he makes the split in good shape, but that's about it.
Good luck to everyone, and thanks for the preview, lief!
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 30-05-2024 22:50
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3263
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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Had a lot of non-competitive races of lately (other than TOA), so just hope we can be involved here and not just get dropped without ever troubling the front of the race. But hard to know how this race will shake out under the PCM22 engine.
Thanks for the preview.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 31-05-2024 10:17
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 810
Joined: 05-10-2021
PCM$: 600.00
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Maybe Pacher would have been a good option here. We have a relatively weak team, with essentially youngsters, but maybe Doubey and Tatarinov can bring Wackerman to the sprint. Then a top 10 would be satisfying!
Thanks for the preview, good luck everyone.
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 13:08
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Bot Agent
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 31-05-2024 11:04
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2907
Joined: 15-07-2007
PCM$: 300.00
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Thank you liefwarrior!
We expect 0 points here, so....yeah  |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 31-05-2024 11:28
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Thanks for a great preview, hoping that Turgis can pull off something special here!
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| KaiserAdler |
Posted on 31-05-2024 18:57
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Domestique
Posts: 570
Joined: 13-07-2022
PCM$: 5800.00
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I mean, I expected nothing, and got 4th with the Liechtensteiner Goat. I'm impressed! Congrats to the winner and thanks for the report!
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 31-05-2024 19:29
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1120
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Congrats to fjhoekie for a surprise win and thanks to Imladrik for another great report!
Russo and Teuns were no factors today, so it's even a bigger shame Thompson was dropped from the break that late in the race. So it's a 0-pointer for us and quite a bummer after an incredible month.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 31-05-2024 20:22
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Sprinter
Posts: 1907
Joined: 07-02-2009
PCM$: 200.00
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Stöckli in 2nd! That's a huge result for him and great to see since we knew from the beginning that Müller wasn't going to do anything. It seems like we never go for breakaways so to make it in and have it win is very fun.
Congrats to fjhoekie on Varga taking the win and thank you to Imladrik for the exciting race.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 31-05-2024 21:27
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2933
Joined: 09-05-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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It was 2 RD well spent with Nikiema just shy of Top 10 finish, Velasco finishing in the Top 25 giving more ranking points (shame that Robov was close, but not close enough) and 4 riders in the Top 40 which is nice...I guess?
Anyway, congrats fjhoekie and thanks Imladrik for the report.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 31-05-2024 21:53
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Well that's a disaster class from us. Thanks for a great report and congrats to fj on the win!
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 31-05-2024 22:43
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3263
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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Congrats to Popo, Varga is a winner. Too many strong roulers in the break. I thought the Narvaez/Demare/Houle group had them, but must have lost momentum just shy of the catch. Maybe the split with Milan Torino was key, imagine not just us, but a lot of teams might have been a bit stronger without that.
This season feeling a lot like last year where the 2nd half of the year was a debacle for us outside the TOA.
Thanks for the report.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Blasing |
Posted on 01-06-2024 09:22
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 278
Joined: 27-06-2011
PCM$: 200.00
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Here's hoping that Großschartner can be a good puncheur in this terrain!
Manager of JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 01-06-2024 22:39
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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Really weird race, and sadly another disappointment on home soil for us. No clue why the pack let the break stay away, they should have easily caught a group without a notable puncheur (but some strong rouleurs to be fair).
We also didn't do enough; Schmid could've worked more I guess, or at least have joined one of the late moves. Theuns did OK-ish to take 8th in the sprint of the pack, but all in all it definitely wasn't a satisfying race given our lineup. But compared to others, it wasn't a complete failure, either - just sad we couldn't show our best racing at home.
Congrats to P4E, Varga really has some surprisingly good performances in him even on pretty tough routes!
Thanks for the report!
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