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Baltic Chain Tour Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 15-12-2023 04:19
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Directeur Sportif
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The 2023 Baltic Chain tour features the same course as other recent editions. It is a sprinters race with a twist, the twist is the cobbled opening prologue, about half the course is cobbled and it requires a special type of rider to thrive. This is the 11th edition of the race and the prior editions have all been won by sprinters, 10 different sprinters to be specific. Last year’s winner  Haller is the only prior winner who is back with a chance to take number 2.
While the cobbled prologue adds a twist the race is still basically one for the sprinters. So coverage starts with them. Feeling bored with the his usual preview tables the report decided to spice things up.
The graphic below shows the top 3 riders by team based on the average of their SP and AC (minimum 70 sprint). Teams are ranked based on the strength of their best rider.
The top two are  Groenewegen and  Dainese. The first is a little faster the second quicker to reach maximum speed. Both bring solid lead outs – Fastned,, Matthews and Vingerling, and Assa Abloy, Gibbons and Konychev.
Third on the list is  Manninen and as is typical the Mexicans don’t bother with much of a lead out. With Los Pollos lacking the resources it might fall to Zalgiris to do the leadout, they have the other outstanding sprinter on the start list in  Halvorsen. From those 4 the quality drops off a little with  Abdul Halil probably being the best of the rest. If leading out falls to Indosat they have a strong of options in Nur Hasan, Gani, and Venturini.
But another way to consider sprinting ability is not to just focus on strength in the last 2k but also to consider strength in the build up. The graphic below is the same except Flat is now averaged along with the other two stats and the ranking and leaders are re-identified.
While the top four are still the same the order is different, with Dainese and Halvorsen topping the list as they are both strong on the flats. There are some other big moves further down,  Kamberaj, who has had some great races already this season moves up from 15th to 7th on the list.  Riabushenko and to a lesser extent  Einhorn and  Afewerki also show better.
Moving back to the opening stage, stage 1 brings the twist, a 3k prologue that is about 50% cobbled. In the past it has taken a rider with some cobbles strength to win the stage. The graphic shows the cobbles (horizontal) and prologue stat (vertical) compared to 70 for all riders who are at 70 in one of the two stats. The riders strong in both stats are in the top right quadrant.
The 7 riders strong on both attributes are:
| Rider | CO | PR |  Campbell | 74 | 75 | | Räim | 71 | 74 | | Matthews | 75 | 74 | | Rossi | 71 | 73 |  Kuroeda | 77 | 71 | | Rickaert | 72 | 70 |  Nielsen | 74 | 70 |
All seven of these will hope to contest the stage, as they all have balanced skill sets.
Riders who are strong in the cobbles and not too bad in the prologue include:
| Rider | CO | PR | | Blythe | 79 | 68 | | Gaday | 78 | 68 | | Ringheim | 78 | 66 | | Zubov | 79 | 66 |
These four are very solid cobbles riders and particularly Blythe and Gaday can hold their own in the ITT.
While the final group are the strong prologue riders who can also handle the cobbles.
| Rider | CO | PR | | Gonzalez Salas | 60 | 80 |  Frame | 62 | 79 |  Kennett | 62 | 78 | | Noia | 62 | 77 | | Hennis | 69 | 76 |  Weinstein | 67 | 76 | | Vingerling | 67 | 75 |
Gonzalez Salas is the best prologue rider in the field, but his cobble skills aren’t great. Frame and Kennett aren’t quite as strong on the TT bike but a little better on the cobbles. The bottom three are the most balanced riders of the prologue stars.
Startlist
 
Edited by AbhishekLFC on 15-12-2023 06:55
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 15-12-2023 06:58
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Wildly wildcard startlist for us trying to feed on some scraps if possible. Anything we get from this is a bonus I think.
Thanks for the preview Ulrich 
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 15-12-2023 07:18
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Tour de France Champion
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Ah yes, our Stage Win Goal race. Three options for Stage 1, options for breakaways, it might happen! This race really is just more for fun because of it's unique routing.
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 15-12-2023 09:23
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Thank you for the nice detailed preview, Ulrich! We believe Manninen has what it takes to finish top-5 here, and hope we don't get forked by the AI. Good luck to everyone
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| quadsas |
Posted on 15-12-2023 10:05
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Can we finally do something in one of our home eaces? Weaker field seems like an expectations trap
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 15-12-2023 10:57
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Thanks UU for the great preview!
I would sign for a top-15 GC for Liepins in his home race.
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 15-12-2023 11:08
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It's all about our youngsters here.
Maybe Guerao can get us some more points.
Thanks for the preview!
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| roturn |
Posted on 15-12-2023 11:15
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Let`s see what Groenewegen can do here.
More of a Juarez or Guadeloupe performance.
Later obviously is much needed.
Really like the graphs in the preview. Giving a good spread over strength. |
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| MacC |
Posted on 15-12-2023 12:19
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Sprinter
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Not quite sure I understand all that but I see that Kennett is mentioned so fingers crossed
Edited by MacC on 15-12-2023 16:09
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| seancoll |
Posted on 15-12-2023 19:03
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A really fascinating first stage to watch for. Would've thought 3km would benefit the pure prologue specialists, but I guess the high percentage of cobbles mixes that up.
While maybe not the favorites, I have a feeling that Glanbia and Podium Ambition come away with some successes here.
Would love to see a successful breakaway confuse things as well.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 15-12-2023 21:45
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TheManxMissile wrote:
Ah yes, our Stage Win Goal race. Three options for Stage 1, options for breakaways, it might happen! This race really is just more for fun because of it's unique routing.
I guess that's a goal achieved for you then TMM, congrats on an absolutely crazy stage!
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 15-12-2023 21:49
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Wow, didn't see that coming - but definitely an amazing stage for Podium Ambition! Big congrats to TMM on the stage win, an achieved stage win goal - and a pretty good chunk of points secured already! I told you, still plenty of time to turn things around - it currently looks like Izola was just the start 
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| cio93 |
Posted on 16-12-2023 01:04
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Congrats TMM, lovely to see!
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 16-12-2023 04:26
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Tour de France Champion
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Holy f*ck that was awesome! Stage Win goal is always a bit of a gamble, so to smash it is brilliant. Two Goals in one season, we've not done that in many many years. Now i can relax and really just enjoy the next four stages.
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 16-12-2023 07:48
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Congrats TMM What a performance!
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| MacC |
Posted on 16-12-2023 08:35
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Big congrats to TMM, sweet victory.
Thanks for the report UU, happy with Kennett having a second or two over other sprinters.
Nice to see Frame doing well for Adidas too
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 16-12-2023 09:38
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Classics Specialist
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Thank you UU for the greaat preview with a fancy new format, i really enjoyed it
Congrats with the stage win goal TMM, must be amazing to get it on the first stage! |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 16-12-2023 11:14
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Was hoping for a better result from our cobbles trio but it looks like prologue expertise was more important here. Still, not a bad stage and definitely very encouraging from Tim VD.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 17-12-2023 04:41
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Thanks for the preview Ulrich, love the work
Wtf was that stage though? A bunch of terrible level 1 riders staying away on a flat stage like that  Congrats to winning team of course.
Thank for the reports
Edited by Eden95 on 17-12-2023 11:45
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 17-12-2023 06:53
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
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Woo! CT Teams dominating 
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Baltic Chain Tour 
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
