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Vuelta a Pais Vasco - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 17-11-2023 04:06
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Directeur Sportif
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 Vuelta a Pais Vasco
This week the mangame peloton continues its tour of different regions of the Iberian peninsula. Last month saw visits to Portugul and Catalonia and now the C1-ranked Vuelta a Pais Vasco. The race is fairly similar to the Volta a Catalunya featuring 6 stages including a TTT. But while the Catalan race had no ITT and a couple of mountain stages Pais Vasco adds an ITT and sticks entirely to hilly stages, or perhaps more accurately medium mountain stages, the kind of steep mid-length climbs for which the region is famous. The ITT is 19k long and comes on Stage 4 in Lodosa.
Last year that ITT was key, as a Nicola Conci, a rider known more for his time-trialing than his explosive climbing won the race. Prior winners include more rounded riders like Oomen (2021) and Gesink (2012, 2013, 2019, 2020). The latter’s 4 wins are the record, 1 ahead of Trofimov (2011, 2014, 2016).
 Oomen is back to go for his second win and is the top pure climber in the peloton. But the combination of stages seems to have led to a number of different GC strategies so our favorites list has a variety of flavors.
| Rider | FL | MT | HI | TT | AC | RS | | Oomen | 71 | 81 | 75 | 74 | 69 | 77 |  Penasa | 70 | 80 | 74 | 70 | 76 | 72 | | Novak | 68 | 80 | 77 | 66 | 76 | 76 |  Garby | 65 | 79 | 70 | 68 | 70 | 76 |  Taaramäe | 68 | 78 | 71 | 74 | 66 | 70 |  Fouche | 66 | 78 | 75 | 69 | 75 | 73 | | Beltran | 68 | 78 | 80 | 65 | 74 | 70 |  Dunbar | 69 | 77 | 76 | 80 | 68 | 77 |  Darbellay | 69 | 77 | 71 | 75 | 64 | 75 | | Masnada | 71 | 77 | 76 | 73 | 73 | 75 | | De Plus | 72 | 77 | 79 | 64 | 72 | 73 | | Vasyliv | 71 | 77 | 74 | 72 | 67 | 72 | | Abdurrahman | 68 | 77 | 72 | 72 | 68 | 74 |  Buchmann | 71 | 76 | 81 | 67 | 73 | 74 |  Uwizeyimana | 71 | 76 | 72 | 74 | 68 | 75 | | Vangstad | 74 | 72 | 70 | 77 | 68 | 75 | | Izagirre | 69 | 72 | 79 | 75 | 61 | 69 | | Kung | 73 | 70 | 73 | 77 | 71 | 72 |  Kritskiy | 68 | 77 | 68 | 73 | 57 | 66 |
Among the top traditional GC riders Oomen is really only joined by Penasa plus some lessor lights in that category like the aging Taaramäe, Vasyliv, Uwizeyimana and Abdurrahman. Darbellay also fits in that category and may have the most similar skill set to Conci. And there are numerous other riders in this category not listed, as they have slightly weaker skill sets. But many of those could challenge for a top 10 in the GC under the right circumstances.
Dunbar is probably the top favorite alongside Oomen. He is a different type of GC rider than Oomen, stronger in the hillls and TTs but not as strong on the long climbs. Masnada also fits this type although much weaker in the ITT than Dunbar.
Then there are riders who will suffer in the TTs but who will hope their skills on the climbs outweigh that, most notable in this category are Novak, Buchmann and Beltran. Although Novak might be focused on supporting Oomen. Another Lierse rider, De Plus, fits in this category as well, giving Lierse 3 of the top climbers in the race. Others in this group who are a little stronger in the TT, without being all that good, are CT standard-bearer Garby and Fouche. Garby will have to overcome significant weakness in the hills as well as his mediocre ability on the time-trial bike.
Finally, it seems possible that a top-GC result could also be achieved by a TT rider who is capable of surviving the climbs. While most of the TT riders in the race are more one-dimensional Vangstad and Kung might fit the bill in this category.
The last rider to make our favorites list is Izagirre, one of the dying breed of weird HI/TT riders, who used to rule the mangaem skies. The veteran is still strong in the hills and solid in the TT but his climbing isn’t great and he doesn’t have great resilience any more either.
The GC hopes of all of these riders will be helped if their team can put in a strong ride on Stage 1’s 20k TTT. The gaps shouldn’t be huge but every second counts. The TTT teams rank as follows:
| All | Top 5 | Top 3 | | Jura GIANTS | 75.9 | 77.8 | 78.3 | | Team UBS - Tissot | 74.5 | 77.2 | 78.3 | | Indosat Ooredoo | 73.6 | 76.6 | 77.7 | | Bralirwa - Stevens | 73.4 | 76.0 | 77.0 | | SEE Turtles | 72.9 | 75.6 | 77.0 | | Tryg - Gobik | 72.1 | 75.4 | 76.7 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 71.8 | 74.2 | 76.3 | | Tafjord Kraft | 70.8 | 73.8 | 75.3 | | Xero Racing | 70.0 | 73.2 | 75.0 | | Podium Ambition | 69.3 | 73.2 | 75.0 | | Trans Looney Tunes | 69.0 | 71.8 | 74.0 | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | 68.5 | 71.8 | 73.0 | | Adidas - Eurocash | 68.5 | 70.6 | 73.0 | | JEWA TIROL | 68.3 | 70.4 | 72.7 | | Caja Rural Cycling Team | 66.8 | 70.2 | 72.3 | | Team Würth MODYF | 66.6 | 68.8 | 71.7 | | Babymetal Cycling | 66.1 | 68.8 | 71.0 | | Genii Hyundai N Cycling | 65.5 | 68.4 | 71.0 | | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | 65.5 | 68.2 | 69.7 | | Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh | 64.6 | 67.2 | 69.0 | | Ekoi - Le Creuset | 64.1 | 66.4 | 67.3 | | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | 61.5 | 64.0 | 65.3 | | Saeco | 57.6 | 58.4 | 59.0 |
Masnada seems like the biggest winner on this count, the outstanding Jura outfit should give him a great platform for a GC challenge. Dunbar’s team is also excellent although not a strong as JURA while Oomen’s Lierse are only 7th on the list with a sizable gap to the Indosat and JURA teams. Buchmann himself is not great against the clock but the rest of the team might be better than JURA. The question is how much will carrying Buchmann slow them down.
Tryg and SEE Turtles probably don’t have strong GC hopes but should put up solid TTT times while Bralirwa will hope a great TTT can catapult one of their outsider GC candidates to a strong overall results.
With a TTT also in the race there are plenty of riders who have the skills to perform in the ITT. The top 12 excluding those mentioned as GC contenders are:
| Rider | FL | MT | HI | TT | PR | RS |  Norsgaard | 73 | 62 | 65 | 79 | 77 | 75 |  Van Moer | 76 | 61 | 70 | 79 | 79 | 78 | | Rekita | 72 | 58 | 63 | 79 | 78 | 73 | | Haugard | 72 | 57 | 60 | 79 | 79 | 77 | | Dillier | 69 | 50 | 63 | 79 | 78 | 76 | | Bissegger | 74 | 68 | 69 | 78 | 77 | 77 | | Brunel | 75 | 67 | 71 | 78 | 78 | 78 | | Politt | 73 | 63 | 66 | 78 | 76 | 73 | | Van Niekerk | 76 | 61 | 67 | 78 | 77 | 75 | | Sajnok | 74 | 61 | 65 | 78 | 79 | 76 | | Belevics | 76 | 60 | 64 | 78 | 78 | 72 | | Golovash | 72 | 60 | 60 | 78 | 78 | 69 |
None of these stand out from the crowd and Dunbar will likely be the favorite to take the stage ahead of any of them.
Finally, there are riders who don’t have the climbing and/or ITT skills to threaten the overall but who will hope to contest some of the punchy stages, particularly Stages 2 and 3. These include:
| Rider | FL | MT | HI | TT | SP | AC | RS | | Eiking | 71 | 69 | 81 | 66 | 68 | 76 | 74 |  Vogt | 73 | 62 | 80 | 66 | 62 | 63 | 71 |  Waeytens | 70 | 71 | 80 | 65 | 66 | 73 | 70 | | Kron | 73 | 70 | 79 | 66 | 66 | 73 | 75 | | Prevar | 71 | 70 | 79 | 61 | 66 | 71 | 68 | | Errazkin | 71 | 74 | 78 | 70 | 63 | 73 | 75 | | Watson | 70 | 65 | 78 | 68 | 62 | 72 | 72 |  Quevedo | 69 | 71 | 78 | 65 | 65 | 75 | 72 | | Bilbao | 70 | 66 | 78 | 64 | 70 | 74 | 70 | | Hugentobler | 70 | 68 | 78 | 58 | 56 | 76 | 69 |  Mayer | 68 | 69 | 77 | 70 | 72 | 77 | 72 |  Duchesne | 70 | 67 | 77 | 68 | 69 | 79 | 72 | | Houle | 77 | 65 | 74 | 68 | 78 | 77 | 70 |  Russo | 73 | 65 | 73 | 65 | 76 | 78 | 73 | | Lagane | 70 | 70 | 77 | 66 | 75 | 77 | 71 |
Particularly Errazkin could argue he ought to have been included in the overall contenders. JURA have multiple riders with balanced skill sets and with their TTT set up they will definitely be targeting the team’s compeition. While not as strong as Errazkin, Mayer also has a very balanced skill set. And if ability on the longer climbs proves less important riders like Eiking, Waeytens, Kron, and Prevar could contest the overall although they will all lose significant time in the ITT.
But all of these riders should be looking for stage victories and could also be candidates to go in the breakaways later in the race. Last year Stage 2 was won by Dusan Kalaba so Houle and Russo will have circled that stage on their calendars.
Startlist
Edited by Ulrich Ulriksen on 18-11-2023 14:30
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| seancoll |
Posted on 17-11-2023 04:41
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Domestique
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We're hoping the TTs play a larger factor than they appear. Going to be a tough one for us, but out hilly TTT squad is ready to go. Not sure if they'll drop Duchesne for a faster time or if they'll carry him to the line. Regardless, hoping that a good stage 1 gives us a tad bit of priority. If all goes well, Abreu, Reguigui or Siriwardena should at least find their way into the depth GC positions.
Let's just give Dunbar the win now.
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 17-11-2023 06:54
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 810
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Thanks for the preview!
It's all in for the breaks for us. Goal is KoM and maybe a stage win. Looking forward to tagging along Ekoi and others. Let show our public we're a capable team.
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
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| redordead |
Posted on 17-11-2023 07:08
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
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Hard to see how Dunbar doesn't win this one. Far away are the days where a rider like Beltran could compete in this race 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 17-11-2023 10:09
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
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Zero expectation fun race. Bringing all four of our big hitters in O'Connor, Canty, Mayer & Lagane but purely just because. Breakaways would be nice, Stage 2 could really suit the Mayer-Lagane duo. But lets enjoy the scenery, some cervezas and good hearty Basque cooking.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 17-11-2023 10:57
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Team Leader
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Stage Hunter CG over here.
Good luck everybody and thank you Ulrich Ulriksen for the great preview!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 17-11-2023 11:00
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
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We really want to win this race, let's see if my trust in the MG can return here.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 17-11-2023 11:14
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Sprinter
Posts: 1907
Joined: 07-02-2009
PCM$: 200.00
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Thank you for the preview and really looking forward to this race. I think we have a good squad all around and Buchmann will hopefully challenge for the win.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 17-11-2023 11:43
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4505
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Dunbar finished 9th here last season, so we’re just looking for any improvement over that. With the hills probably not being incredibly selective, it does probably make his chances of a decent finish pretty good. The startlist is also not super strong, so I expect there to be quite a few surprises in this one. Thanks for the preview UU!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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Posted on 24-11-2024 05:18
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 17-11-2023 20:19
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Well, I'd just like to finally get a decent result out of this race - so far we have failed to do so. The goal must be to be as high up in the GC with as many riders as possible after stage 4, so the engine doesn't ignore us again on S5 like last year - which actually was the killer back then.
Dunbar is the obvious favourite given Indosat's good TTT and Dunbar's ITT superiority, and I'd really be surprised to see big gaps on the hilly stages given what we've seen so far this year. It's all about being in the front group on all random splits, then the GC result should be OK.
I think any of Darbellay, Masnada or Errazkin could be in the mix for a Top 5, depending on how the hilly stages turn out - or the entire team could finish outside the Top 50 like in Ukraine.
Thanks for the preview to UU, good luck to all participants.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 17-11-2023 21:32
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World Champion
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We're finally racing again! Now we've given the rest of the division their headstart  Have on paper a potentially super fun team here between Fouche, Kipkemboi, Pidcock, and Houle (the only race of the season featuring both of the latter two). Who knows what they'll all do or how well - after TDU I have no faith in the AI here! Startlist looks surprisingly good for us but won't get my hopes up.
Thanks for the preview and upcoming reports UU - and sorry for my inactivity everyone. Uni exams and end-of-year events combined with us not racing left me with small motivation and even smaller time to be active but we're racing again just as the holidays begin so will be back to it now 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 18-11-2023 08:20
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Classics Specialist
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I've miscalculated the fact that this race also has TTT. While my TTT train isn't as stacked as last year, we could've had be at least on a lesser gap. Hopefully Penasa breaks out in later stages. Congrats to JURA for the win.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 18-11-2023 09:11
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Grand Tour Specialist
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What the fuck. That’s our race done.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 18-11-2023 09:15
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Breakaway Specialist
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Second to last is good. On to the attack then!
Congrats to Jura on the easy win.
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
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| Blasing |
Posted on 18-11-2023 10:15
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Neo-Pro
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46 seconds is not good, but it could be worse given our TT skills. Here's hoping that we can go stage hunting with our puncheurs now and that Grossschartner maybe can put in a good performance to stay in a solid GC spot.
Manager of JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 18-11-2023 11:12
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Sprinter
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Well I was happy to see we got 2nd until I realized the team dropped Buchmann. I would have preferred a bit slower pace that allowed him to not lose significant time. We'll see how the AI handles this, maybe Barbio will make a surprise run at the GC 
Congrats to Fab on the well deserved win and the excellent start!
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 18-11-2023 13:58
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Best possible way to start he race - and obviously the scenario we were hoping for. Great job by the team, that's a good amount of points already in the bag
Well done UBS to finish 2nd - I'd say as expected. And Bralirwa's increased TT focus seems to pay off, too - will be interesting to see how Izagirre performs now.
This stage actually confirms what could already be observed in IoM - there are far more riders who lose plenty of time to their teammates than in the last version. In last year's result, I find 2 riders who lost 30s or more - this time I guess pretty much every team has such a rider. For me, that was Errazkin - which is a bit unlucky given that he's among the stronger puncheurs, but the team probably did well to just remove the "weakest link".
I guess the puncheurs often were among the weaker TTers in their teams, and when the engine had the choice between a puncheur and a decent climber with some TT skills, it seemed to pick the latter instead (Barbio for UBS, definitely Oomen for Lierse, Taaramäe for P4E). I still don't get how Indosat could have such a huge stinker, though - commiserations to Eden. I'm still pretty sure Dunbar should finish high up, he'll get that minute back against most of the top competitors in the TT. But Oomen is looking like the top favourite by now I'd say, good job by Lierse (although any kind of depth result like last year is probably gone).
Thanks for the report to UU - and sorry for the long text, I find it always interesting to try to find some kind of pattern in those TTT outcomes...
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 18-11-2023 16:27
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Protected Rider
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First of all thanks to Ulrich for the preview and the reports.
Congrats to Fab for another TTT win (so it's not necessary I report all your TTTs  ), we did well with losing some time so everything's set up for our riders in the breaks (looking forward to meet fellow French team Bordeaux' riders there). Hopefully we'll see them fight for the KoM there and if Russo's not distanced in stage 2 or 3 he's maybe in for a good stage result too.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 18-11-2023 16:44
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Tour de France Champion
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Solid TTT work from T3A there, i'll take that result quite happily. Slightly worried Mayer was struggling, and O'Connor was even dropped - can't figure out why beyond yet more bad luck. Stage 2 up next, and this is the one I have even the slimmest of hopes for.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 18-11-2023 18:55
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4670
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Don't think so, with PCM you just have to be lucky to have more than 5 riders with the same time. Even after all these years, the engine isn't able to
a) let the 5 most important riders finish ahead
OR
b) not award any time gaps for riders finishing together with the Top 5
Looking at the screenshot of my team's finish, there's clearly no gap between 5th and 6th (and not really one to 7th, either), but 6th was 1" back, 7th 2". On sprint stages, this would never be considered a gap (probably not even on mountain stages), don't know if there's a time gap setting for TTTs as well, of if that's just how it is, always has been and ever will be ^^
So in conclusion, yeah, O'Connor had just bad luck to be in 6th position and lose an additional second...
Btw, thanks for all the congrats @all, really appreciated
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
