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Tour du Maroc Discussion
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 17-05-2023 08:02
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World Champion
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 Tour du Maroc
2 Mountain (1MTF, 1HTF) | 1 Hilly (1HTF) | 3 Flat
Hello and welcome to the Tour du Maroc! Still a relatively recent addition to the cycling calendar, now in its fifth year. It has dropped down to the HC level for 2022, and also slimmed to just 6 stages. Known for being an open race for the climbers with a punch, it boasts two high mountain stages with smaller uphill finishes, 1 rolling stage with a sharp hilltop finale, and three for the sprinters. Let's meet those climbers hoping it will be them arriving in yellow to Taroudant.
| MON | HIL | STA | RES | ACC |  Madrazo | 83 | 74 | 78 | 77 | 69 |  Padun | 82 | 77 | 72 | 74 | 75 |  Quintana | 82 | 74 | 77 | 76 | 66 |  Novak | 80 | 77 | 74 | 76 | 76 |  Berhane | 81 | 75 | 77 | 74 | 68 |  Monsalve | 80 | 75 | 78 | 79 | 72 |  Guldhammer | 80 | 76 | 73 | 74 | 75 |  Sicard | 80 | 76 | 77 | 76 | 67 |  Aular | 81 | 72 | 76 | 75 | 69 |  Penasa | 80 | 74 | 75 | 72 | 76 |  Areruya | 79 | 81 | 76 | 78 | 76 |
The list of major favourites for the GC win would appear to begin with Angel Madrazo and end with Mark Padun - the strongest climber, veteran of many Grand Tours (winner of Vuelta and Tour, loser of two Giro d'Italia by a combined 59 seconds) and the young star, the best puncheur among the climbers and probably the second best in the high mountains as well. Unless the finishing climbs on Stages 2 and 5 are ridden very hard you'd give the edge to the Spaniard but he'll be wanting to shake Padun before the final kilometres given his younger rival's faster kick.
A man who has even more reason to hope this race is decided on the smaller climbs rather than the larger ones is Joseph Areruya - perhaps a strange choice to be mentioned third here but in terms of a point of difference to the top two he may be the only person who has one. It would be easy to see him coming in the lower top 10 (as he did here last year, albeit as a weaker rider in a PTHC field) - however last year he would have seen how GC winner Miguel Angel Lopez overcame some stronger climbers with superior puncheur skills. Although he's no Lopez he'll surely have some hope of emulating that strategy.
Nairo Quintana may have some reason to be aggrieved to not be mentioned alongside Madrazo and Padun, but with his lack of a punch he'll be hoping for the high mountains to be very destructive. A similar accusation could be leveled at Orluis Aular, but his upset GC victory in the Tour of Chile showed he can handle himself on the short climbs rather well despite appearances! Novak and Guldhammer are a pair of punchy climbers who will look to attack the pair of hilltop finishes, while Berhane, Monsalve, Sicard and Penasa are more rounded pure climbers who round out our list of favourites.
| MO | HI | ST | RS | AC | | MO | HI | ST | RS | AC | | Rodrigues | 80 | 73 | 73 | 75 | 72 | Gregaard | 78 | 71 | 78 | 75 | 70 |  Ranaweera | 80 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 65 |  Fabbro | 78 | 75 | 71 | 72 | 73 | | Arndt | 79 | 76 | 77 | 76 | 75 |  Garby | 79 | 70 | 71 | 76 | 70 |  Min | 79 | 76 | 75 | 77 | 66 |  Elissonde | 78 | 73 | 76 | 77 | 66 |  Mas | 78 | 77 | 74 | 74 | 77 | Habtemichael | 78 | 74 | 74 | 73 | 66 |  Pomoshnikov | 79 | 74 | 78 | 76 | 66 | Ndayisenga | 78 | 75 | 69 | 68 | 73 | | Aranburu | 77 | 79 | 70 | 79 | 71 | Raileanu | 77 | 77 | 74 | 73 | 70 | | F. Karlsson | 79 | 73 | 78 | 75 | 68 | Squire | 77 | 77 | 70 | 70 | 71 |  Pogacar | 78 | 75 | 77 | 78 | 71 | Roman | 77 | 75 | 71 | 73 | 76 |
A deep list of outsiders and lieutenants - some chasing their own dreams and certainly able to break into the favourites group if they are having a good week, some, like Habtemichael or Ndayisenga, very much in service of their leaders, while Rodrigues is almost a co-leader to Aular at some races.
Aranburu is ostensibly second fiddle to Guldhammer for Carlsberg, but worth mentioning as the other nominal puncheur, if the distinction must be made, in the race alongside Areruya. Meanwhile Pogacar and Habtemichael will be the favourites for the U25 jersey as they often have been this season - but as always Pogacar is the stronger rider on paper, and is also the leader of his own team while Habtemichael isn't, so he's a heavy favourite there, though in those exact circumstances in Portugal Habtemichael managed to serve his leader and beat Pogacar, so it's not impossible!
| SPR | ACC | FLA | STA | RES | | Zabel | 81 | 79 | 74 | 74 | 70 | | Kragh Andersen | 81 | 77 | 77 | 70 | 74 |  Carsi | 80 | 82 | 70 | 66 | 69 | | Reinhardt | 79 | 84 | 71 | 73 | 66 | | Afewerki | 79 | 80 | 73 | 77 | 70 | | Minali | 79 | 79 | 73 | 70 | 74 |  Hodeg | 79 | 78 | 72 | 69 | 74 |  Page | 78 | 79 | 75 | 72 | 72 | | Selig | 78 | 79 | 70 | 71 | 66 | | Marin | 78 | 78 | 74 | 73 | 73 | | Zariff | 78 | 78 | 68 | 70 | 65 | | Aniolkowski | 78 | 77 | 74 | 74 | 73 | | Mareczko | 78 | 77 | 74 | 71 | 73 |  Aregger | 78 | 77 | 73 | 72 | 71 |
A weaker startlist than you'd expect from a six-day race with three sprint stages, and so the duo of Rick Zabel, and Asbjorn Kragh Andersen will be licking their chops at the opportunity to take up to three stages and the points jersey! They are the clear top two, the next step being the Crabbe duo of Carsi and Reinhardt alongside Afewerki, Minali, Hodeg, and Page - though with such an open field there's every opportunity for them or even the further fastmen to spring a surprise.
The PCT rankings races are really heating up as we reach the business end of the season, and there are some teams such as Binance (4th), Carlsberg (6th), Bralirwa (8th), Philips (19th), Volcanica (21st), and Strava (22nd) throwing some of their last major dice in the promotion and relegation battles here.
In terms of those chasing high placements in the individual standings, this is the penultimate outing of Areruya (6th) for the season and the final (non-wildcard) one for each of Madrazo (11th), Padun (16th), Zabel (18th) and Aular (20th).
So a lot of storylines inside and outside of the race itself to follow this week, and the brilliant Ulrich Ulriksen will be here to take you through it all. See you then.
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| redordead |
Posted on 17-05-2023 08:11
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It will be hard to score well here given the startlist. Need some luck with overperformances to really make an impact on the rankings.
Thanks for the preview.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 17-05-2023 08:47
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Well, I guess I shouldn't have applied for this race, given that Mäder doesn't even appear on the extended favorites list... Which isn't too surprising given his low Hi, to be fair. But I still hope he'll do something useful - maybe a KoM challenge, given that he won't be in GC contention anyway.
We've been pretty successful in HC sprints so far, let's see if Aregger can somehow get close to Stepniak's results.
Overall, I'm glad that promotion should be pretty much wrapped up, given that we'll likely not get many points from this race.
Thanks for the preview to jandal (full startlist would be great, though), and to UU for the reports 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 17-05-2023 08:58
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World Champion
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Fabianski wrote:
Thanks for the preview to jandal (full startlist would be great, though)
Duh, forgot. Thanks 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 17-05-2023 09:31
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Only expect something from Hodeg here, or a breakaway in the final stages. Otherwise, pretty much a forced-to-be-here race. Thanks for the preview jandal!
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 17-05-2023 10:21
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Thanks for the preview Jandal. Really hoping that Elissonde does something of note here since he has been very quiet all season. It's a very strong startlist with a clear battle between Madrazo and Padun for the win.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 17-05-2023 10:46
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Penasa showing up in the Top 10 on the startlist and we'll gladly take a top 10 finish here to round out his season. Supporting cast is decent if not the strongest. Maybe Minali can show up in the sprints too.
Thanks for the preview Jandal
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 17-05-2023 11:08
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whitejersey wrote:
It's a very strong startlist with a clear battle between Madrazo and Padun for the win.
Not trying to be sardonic, but I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if Madrazo finished outside of the Top 5. Stage 2 might not lead to many time gaps and the final climbs of stages 4 and 5 don't suit him well, being as short as they are. If Padun, Novak, Monsalve, Guldhammer and Areruya, maybe even Penasa/Sicard/Arndt, finish ahead of him, that wouldn't shock me.
On the other hand, he could also end this mixed (at best) season on a high note here. Wouldn't be opposed to a Top 3 with a stage win, maybe? Looking at the sprinters, El Sabbahi has an outside shot at getting a decent result, but anything at all from him is of course a bonus.
Thanks for the nice preview, jandal!
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 17-05-2023 11:13
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Thanks for the preview Jandal!!
Fingers crossed for an over performance from Mas here or at least a showing that we are indeed here. He has one of the higher Hill stats of the favourites and he’s punchy so hopefully the finishes suit him!
Good luck all 
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 17-05-2023 11:24
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Tour de France Champion
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Guldhammer's last career race as a leader. AKA's last race of the season. Aranburu's biggest race as spoiler/superdomestique. There's a lot of race days being used here, and a lot of points up for grabs. We've historically had some good performances in this race, though of course the format has changed this year. Now's the time to make the most of the PTHC points scale and force ourself into a promotion place. No or never.
Guldhammer will have his work cut out for him of course, but the lack of a TT and the punchiness of stage 5 should help. AKA needs a good race here and will have 3 chances, though we'll have to see how the game manages favorites and leadouts since he's near the top here.
Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 17-05-2023 12:06
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
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Sorry for being a party pooper again, but:
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 17-05-2023 12:10
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
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For us here just want to see some classic Areruya balls to the wall shit
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 17-05-2023 12:13
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Seems like we’re not even relevant for the rankings anymore, but yeah I get it, even a Novak win won’t be enough.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 17-05-2023 12:36
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Tour de France Champion
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This is why I shouldn't read these previews at 6 am when I wake up.
In that case, not a great field for us. We shall see what happens.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 17-05-2023 16:03
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Looking for depth scoring in GC and a podium in the Points to keep the promotion dream alive.
Thanks for the preview Jandal.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 19-05-2023 06:43
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Minali staking a claim to stay in the team next season. Didn't expect that!
Thanks for the report Ulrich
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 19-05-2023 08:03
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Posts: 2433
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Solid start by Zabel after a decent leadout when we got our act together.
Congrats to Abhi and thanks to UU for the report.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 19-05-2023 09:26
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Hodeg turns bad positioning into a good result, can't be unhappy. Congrats Abhi!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 19-05-2023 12:10
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Dang, AKA way too far back and then gets stuck behind a couple of guys trying to come through on the left. Disappointing stage, but still two more opportunities.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 19-05-2023 13:39
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Congrats Abhi
Page the eternal 7th place. Can’t complain with that.
Thanks for the report!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
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