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Int. Osterreich Rundfahrt Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 21-01-2023 12:14
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Team Manager
Posts: 6508
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.
 Int. Österreich Rundfahrt
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Preview
Alongside the Tour de Pologne, the Internationale Österreich Rundfahrt is the longest HC stage race of the year and it’s perhaps the most mountaineous. It’s been Aleksandr Pluchkin territory for years: The Moldovan has won here four times in a row! He’s back again, but there’s a good chance that we’ll see a new name on top, as age is catching up more and more with the legend. Some strong riders are trying to fill his footsteps, but it’s a fairly open competition, as we will see.
First, a look at the profile. A rather unusual setup, the race starts with the two hardest stages right out of the gate. Long, steep climbs to Kühtai and the Kitzbühler Horn will give shape to the GC early. Sprinters will give whatever energy they have left after that to contend for stage 3 before we have another mountain stage, though this one likely without any GC implications and perhaps one for the breakaway.
Contenders have to prove themselves again on day 5, a long stage concluding in a short, punchy climb to the finish. Then another day for the sprinters before the GC will be decided in a 24 kilometer time trial.
| MO | HI | TT | ST | RS | AC |  Cattaneo | 82 | 70 | 79 | 76 | 80 | 70 |  Haig | 82 | 74 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 73 |  Reis | 81 | 73 | 76 | 78 | 76 | 64 |  Taaramäe | 81 | 74 | 77 | 73 | 74 | 70 |  Quintana | 82 | 74 | 71 | 77 | 76 | 66 |  Oomen | 81 | 75 | 74 | 78 | 77 | 69 |  Shikai | 81 | 71 | 76 | 74 | 76 | 67 |  Pluchkin | 81 | 71 | 75 | 72 | 72 | 68 |  Kritskiy | 80 | 71 | 76 | 72 | 70 | 61 |  Sicard | 80 | 76 | 74 | 77 | 76 | 67 |
Cattaneo and Haig stand out as the two best climbers who also have the top TT stats among the contenders. The former is slightly stronger as a time trialist and with his backup stats, while the latter has the edge as a puncheur. The two are the betting favorites, but many challengers will make it tough for them.
Reis and Taaramäe are only slightly worse climbers, both are decent puncheurs and the Zalgiris leader also has the physical stats to compete with the top two - this is where Taaramäe struggles. Reis, though, lacks acceleration.
Two of the better puncheurs are Quintana, who also is the only rider to match Cattaneo and Haig as a pure climber but will suffer compared to the others in this group in the time trial, and Oomen. The Lierse SK captain is perhaps the most well-rounded rider in the race, but his time trialing is not quite as good as many of his competitors. He has the potential to gain enough time in the other stages to still be in podium or even victory contention, though.
Shikai, Pluchkin and Kritskiy rely on their time trialing skills in their bid for a top result, but they’re all (comparetively) weak puncheurs, and the latter two feel their age when it comes to stamina and resistance as well. Finally, Sicard is still a very good puncheur with good backup stats, but neither in terms of climbing nor time trialing, he’s with the best of this group.
| MO | HI | TT | ST | RS | AC |  Monsalve | 80 | 75 | 71 | 78 | 79 | 72 |  Rodrigues | 80 | 73 | 74 | 73 | 75 | 72 | | Aular | 81 | 72 | 70 | 76 | 75 | 69 |  Carapaz | 80 | 71 | 72 | 71 | 76 | 65 |  Berhane | 81 | 75 | 66 | 77 | 74 | 68 |  Penasa | 80 | 74 | 70 | 75 | 72 | 76 |  Pogacar | 78 | 75 | 74 | 77 | 78 | 71 |  Garby | 79 | 70 | 68 | 71 | 76 | 70 |  Pomoshnikov | 79 | 74 | 64 | 78 | 76 | 66 |  Habtemichael | 78 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 73 | 66 |  Elissonde | 78 | 73 | 63 | 76 | 77 | 66 |  Gesink | 76 | 74 | 73 | 68 | 70 | 58 |  Hoem | 77 | 72 | 67 | 74 | 69 | 62 |  Teuns | 75 | 78 | 64 | 73 | 73 | 72 |  Wohrer | 75 | 74 | 64 | 68 | 72 | 73 |
The gap between the two tiers of contenders is a bit arbitrary here, given the number of strong riders, and the top three guys here in particular could have a case to be in the top tier. Namely, that’s Monsalve, a great alrounder with a slight TT weakness, and Binance duo Rodrigues - the stronger time trialist of the two - and Aular, who is a great climber but lacks here and there in the other areas. How the team manages this dual leadership, or if they set out with a clear leader from the start, will be an interesting story line to follow.
Carapaz doesn’t have any one pronounced weakness and neither does Penasa, but they also don’t have any truly elite skills. They could still be firmly in Top 10 contention, as could Berhane. The Eritrean’s time trial is so far behind many of the Tier 1 riders though that he needs some really strong mountain and hill stages to make up for it.
Pogacar is the top favorite for the white jersey, but it remains to be seen if his climbing is good enough to make a dent in the overall general classification, too. Other contenders for white include Habtemichael as well as Rikunov and Conci, though the latter two will probably mainly focus on domestique duties.
There’s a bit of a dropoff from Pogacar to the next few team leaders. Mostly, Garby, Pomoshnikov and Elissonde are simply to poor on time trial bikes and then lack the elite climbing skills of someone like Berhane to have any reasonable chance to make up for it. Further down the list, the likes of Gesink, Hoem, Wohrer and Teuns likely won’t target the GC at all and rather hope for perhaps something from a breakaway on day 4 or the likes. The latter is also the best pure puncheur of the race, so he will try to challenge the GC riders on stage 5.
| FL | RS | SP | AC | | Carsi | 70 | 69 | 80 | 82 | | Minali | 73 | 74 | 79 | 79 | | Hayakawa | 73 | 68 | 79 | 79 | | Vingerling | 71 | 66 | 79 | 79 | | Kennett | 75 | 76 | 79 | 78 | | Hodeg | 72 | 74 | 79 | 78 | | Willwohl | 73 | 67 | 79 | 78 | | Riabushenko | 76 | 74 | 79 | 77 | | Kump | 72 | 70 | 79 | 77 | | Selig | 70 | 66 | 78 | 79 | | Sanikwathi | 72 | 67 | 78 | 78 | | Zariff | 68 | 65 | 78 | 78 | | Mareczko | 74 | 73 | 78 | 77 | | Zhao | 74 | 74 | 77 | 81 |
Two sprint stages are on the menu, but with all that climbing, many top sprinters were apparently deterred and the competition is modest. Carsi is the top favorite and Crabbe bring Liepins as by far the best leadout man, so expect to see a yellow and black train leading the way on those two days.
There are lots of similarly rated sprinters behind Carsi who arguably all have a shot to win a stage under the right circumstances. Minali, Hayakawa, Kennett and Hodeg are perhaps the standouts, but don’t discount any of the guys on this list.
| FL | TT | RS | RC | | Durbridge | 73 | 81 | 74 | 70 | | Kittel | 73 | 79 | 67 | 63 | | Cattaneo | 70 | 79 | 80 | 80 | | Sajnok | 74 | 78 | 76 | 71 | | Dumoulin | 71 | 78 | 76 | 70 | | Daniel | 75 | 77 | 74 | 72 | | Bjerg | 74 | 77 | 75 | 71 | | Haig | 72 | 77 | 75 | 78 | | Fernandes | 71 | 77 | 77 | 76 | | Conci | 71 | 77 | 75 | 78 | | Taaramäe | 71 | 77 | 74 | 70 | | Wolf | 70 | 77 | 72 | 70 | | Janse van Rensburg | 69 | 77 | 69 | 67 | | Wohler | 77 | 76 | 71 | 73 |
A few dedicated time trialists have found their way to Austria to compete for the final stage. Durbridge is easily the best of them and has to be considered the top favorite, at least going by TT skill alone. However, with six tough days of racing under the belt, recovery might well play an important role. In that case, the GC riders could be favored, giving especially Cattaneo, but also Haig, Fernandes and Conci decent chances.
More time trialing specialists who aim for a good result here are Kittel, Sajnok and Dumoulin, among others.
 Spoiler [table]Haig Jack Amaysim Cervélo
Durbridge Luke Amaysim Cervélo
Power Robert Amaysim Cervélo
O'Connor Ben Amaysim Cervélo
Canty Brendan Amaysim Cervélo
Harper Chris Amaysim Cervélo
Wohler Alex Amaysim Cervélo
Culey Marcus Amaysim Cervélo
Monsalve Yonathan Assa Abloy
Gebremedhin Awet Assa Abloy
Van der Haar Lars Assa Abloy
Scarponi Paolo Assa Abloy
Kvist Linus Assa Abloy
Arvidsson Staffan Assa Abloy
Magnussen Davur Assa Abloy
Bergstrom Frisk Erik Assa Abloy
Aular Orluis Binance
Rodrigues Joao Binance
Kennett Dylan Binance
Salinas Jonathan Binance
Bartl David Binance
Antunes Amaro Binance
Benito Miguel Angel Binance
Seigle Roman Binance
Pogacar Tadej Cedevita
Borisavljevic Milos Cedevita
Bouchard Geoffrey Cedevita
Ardila Andres Camilo Cedevita
Crncevic Aleksa Cedevita
Zariff Nur Aiman Cedevita
Buitrago Santiago Cedevita
Wright Fred Cedevita
Carapaz Richard Antonio Crabbe-CC Chevigny
Carsi Mustafa Crabbe-CC Chevigny
Liepins Emils Crabbe-CC Chevigny
Bardet Romain Crabbe-CC Chevigny
Manfredi Andrea Crabbe-CC Chevigny
Blouwe Louis Crabbe-CC Chevigny
Van Tricht Stan Crabbe-CC Chevigny
Pluto Martins Crabbe-CC Chevigny
Kritskiy Timofey Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Roson Jaime Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Lunke Sindre Skjostad Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
De la Cruz David Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Daniel Gregory Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Martin Guillaume Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Kittel Marcel Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Arensman Thymen Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Elissonde Kenny HelloFresh - Lampre
Vingerling Michael HelloFresh - Lampre
Potocki Pavel HelloFresh - Lampre
Riesebeek Oscar HelloFresh - Lampre
Heymes Gilles HelloFresh - Lampre
Baroncini Filippo HelloFresh - Lampre
Vermaerke Kevin HelloFresh - Lampre
Milan Jonathan HelloFresh - Lampre
Rohendi Teten Indosat Ooredoo
Kolar Michael Indosat Ooredoo
Arifin Muhammad Imam Indosat Ooredoo
Gesink Robert Indosat Ooredoo
Wolf Justin Indosat Ooredoo
Rubio Einer Augusto Indosat Ooredoo
Ahmad Firdaus Indosat Ooredoo
Ocampo Victor Alejandro Indosat Ooredoo
Teuns Dylan Le Creuset
McEvoy Jonathan Le Creuset
Gogl Michael Le Creuset
Thiery Cyrile Le Creuset
Chevrier Clement Le Creuset
La Lavandier Maxime Le Creuset
Bidard Francois Le Creuset
Balmer Alexandre Le Creuset
Oomen Sam Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Sajnok Szymon Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Mareczko Jakub Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Fedeli Alessandro Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Aleotti Giovanni Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Van Gils Maxim Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Siddikov Dilmurdjon Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Potocki Viktor Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Cattaneo Mattia Minions - Subwoolfer
Hodeg Alvaro Minions - Subwoolfer
Lemus Davila Luis Enrique Minions - Subwoolfer
Quintana Dayer Minions - Subwoolfer
Bjerg Mikkel Minions - Subwoolfer
Coppel Jerome Minions - Subwoolfer
Novikov Savva Minions - Subwoolfer
Stöckli Jan Minions - Subwoolfer
Penasa Pierre Paolo Philips - Force India
Minali Riccardo Philips - Force India
Barta William Philips - Force India
Dumoulin Tom Philips - Force India
Henttala Joonas Philips - Force India
Van Dijke Mick Philips - Force India
Galvan Ramirez Oscar Samuel Philips - Force India
Berhane Natnael Project: Africa
Grmay Tsgabu Gebremaryam Project: Africa
Janse van Rensburg Reinhardt Project: Africa
Reguigui Youcef Project: Africa
Kiflay Metkel Project: Africa
Hamza Faycal Project: Africa
Awuku Frank Project: Africa
Kusi Clement Project: Africa
Reis Rafael Red Bull Zalgiris
Fernandes Jose Red Bull Zalgiris
Hayakawa Tomohiro Red Bull Zalgiris
Affonso Murilo Red Bull Zalgiris
Lasinis Venantas Red Bull Zalgiris
Evenepoel Remco Red Bull Zalgiris
Tediashvili Giorgi Red Bull Zalgiris
Januskevicius Mantas Red Bull Zalgiris
Frankiny Kilian Sauber Petronas Racing
Pomoshnikov Sergei Sauber Petronas Racing
Campero Piter Sauber Petronas Racing
Liphongyu Nawuti Sauber Petronas Racing
Hibatullah Jamal Sauber Petronas Racing
Dulanjana Sachin Sauber Petronas Racing
Chhetri Ajay Pandit Sauber Petronas Racing
Anacona Winner Sauber Petronas Racing
Willwohl Willi Staffbase - BHP
Hindley Jai Staffbase - BHP
Schachmann Maximillian Staffbase - BHP
Wohrer David Staffbase - BHP
Plapp Luke Staffbase - BHP
Van Dijke Tim Staffbase - BHP
Lipowitz Florian Staffbase - BHP
Hollmann Juri Staffbase - BHP
Sicard Romain Strava
Dall'Oste Daniele Strava
Sanikwathi Thanawut Strava
Tarvis Peeter Strava
Hansen Jesper Strava
Maesen William Strava
Weiss Martin Tafjord Kraft
Hoem Bjorn Tore Tafjord Kraft
Blikra Havard Tafjord Kraft
Eislers Sandis Tafjord Kraft
Bugge Vegard Robinson Tafjord Kraft
Lindau Philip Tafjord Kraft
Pluchkin Aleksandr Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Riabushenko Aliaksandr Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Rikunov Petr Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Andriafenomananiaina Zouzou Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Budyak Anatoliy Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Bratashcuk Andrii Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Zumer Matic Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Parashchak Yaroslav Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Garby Marc Christian Trans Looney Tunes
Selig Rüdiger Trans Looney Tunes
Henao Montoya Sergio Luis Trans Looney Tunes
Iino Tomoyuki Trans Looney Tunes
Dyball Benjamin Trans looney Tunes
Vanhoucke Harm Trans Looney Tunes
Sobrero Matteo Trans Looney Tunes
Ghyselinck Jan Trans Looney Tunes
Quintana Nairo Volcanica - Fox
Kump Marko Volcanica - Fox
Herrada Jesus Volcanica - Fox
Brenes Gregory Volcanica - Fox
Herrera Erick Volcanica - Fox
Amador Andrei Volcanica - Fox
Chumil Sergio Volcanica - Fox
Arias Villanueva Sergio Volcanica - Fox
Shikai Chen Voyagin - Bird
Zhao Jingbiao Voyagin - Bird
Lyu Xianjing Voyagin - Bird
Zardini Edoardo Voyagin - Bird
Oka Atsushi Voyagin - Bird
Chen Mingrun Voyagin - Bird
Yamamoto Masaki Voyagin - Bird
Matsuda Shoi Voyagin - Bird
Stannard Robert Xero Racing
Habtemichael Daniel Xero Racing
Hamza Yacine Xero Racing
Schomber Nils Xero Racing
Young Darren Xero Racing
Strong Corbin Xero Racing
Gough Regan Xero Racing
Van Wilder Ilan Xero Racing
Taaramäe Rein Zara - Irizar
Conci Nicola Zara - Irizar
Soler Marc Zara - Irizar
Fernandez Ruben Zara - Irizar
Keinath Nico Zara - Irizar
Miquel Pau Zara - Irizar
Sam Henry Alberto Zara - Irizar
Vandevelde Yentl Zara - Irizar
[/table] . |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 21-01-2023 12:26
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11819
Joined: 19-07-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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Obviously every Haig race is a key race for our ambitions and the profiles here suit him on point. Anything but a podium would be disappointing, even though the competition is fierce. Any weakness or bad daily form would fire back immediately, so Haig better arrives here with a great shape and confidence 
As the preview says, Durbridge may struggle in the final TT, but we had to bring him anyway. Pretty sure Haig will be our main contender for this stage though.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 21-01-2023 12:53
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Team Leader
Posts: 5533
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PCM$: 500.00
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Thank you for the detailed and comprehensive preview! Respect the work that goes into such an effort 
For us, this is another crucial race in our hope of being in the promotion fight. Taaramae coming into this off the back of a GC win obviously gives me that extra bit of hope but it’s no doubt going to be a tough feat to repeat.
The concern is definitely the energy stats of the old man given the tough back to back nature of some of the decisive stages. Conci will be crucial to our efforts here so I hope he can remain well positioned. I’m not at all bothered about his own individual efforts as long as Taaramäe succeeds.
Looking forward also to some thrilling racing in the Mountains and hopefully aggressive too!
Good luck to all Going to be tough for anyone but Haig or Cattaneo to walk away with the win here.
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| redordead |
Posted on 21-01-2023 13:02
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
Joined: 18-10-2017
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I could use an overperformance from Pogacar and others given the way our season has been going. Can't really see it with this startlist though.
Thanks for the preview.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 21-01-2023 13:06
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
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PCM$: 9100.00
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More Oomen racedays is usualy a good thing, but as the preview correctly pointed out, this race will be more for the specialists and less for the allrounders.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 21-01-2023 14:28
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4505
Joined: 05-10-2010
PCM$: 900.00
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All we can hope for here is breaks - Kolar, Rohendi, Gesink and Arifin are all pretty decent climbers so hopefully if a move sticks, one of them is a part of it. Thanks for the preview!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 21-01-2023 14:36
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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PCM$: 10438.70
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Selected out of this band, and can't say I regret it. Unreal climber field for PCT, and with the flat TT, I wouldn't liek Guldhammer's chances after decline.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 21-01-2023 15:55
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1119
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Our first HC race ever (and the only one this season), so not much to hope for - or is there? Teuns should be in contention in stage 5 and maybe he or McEvoy could go for a win from the break or a smaller group in stage 4. Apart from that we merely hope for some screen time in the breaks.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 21-01-2023 16:57
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
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PCM$: 15345.00
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Cattaneo is back for his second proper debut. Colombia was a disappointment but not TT and PTHC are mitigating circumstances. Podium is a must, the win the goal.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 21-01-2023 17:40
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
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Finally back to racing after a long arse break. Reis wasnt impressive on similar terrain this year, but a top 5 is a fair expectation. I just want Fermandes to get out of his slump and score some points here
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 21-01-2023 20:02
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World Champion
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Looking forward to what Habtemichael can do after the very solid Romandie performance, this one might be a little tougher for him to get that Top 10 but we'll see. Pogacar should have his number really but after Habtemichael beat him in Portugal I'm a little more hopeful about white jersey chances too.
Thanks for the preview cunego
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 04:04
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 21-01-2023 20:44
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Wow, that's 16 80+ climbers in a PCT field - that's just insane 
Given that startlist, I'm glad I didn't apply for an HC wildcard here - although I've obviously got some great memories... first HC stage win, first HC GC podium, some other nice results. Well, maybe again next year
Rooting for Nairo to do even better than last year, but as others said, it's hard to see beyond Haig or Cattaneo for the win.
Thanks for the preview, cunego, hoping for a great race from a neutral perspective
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 22-01-2023 06:32
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Wow that's a startlist and a half! Guess we can't expect better than a Top 15 from Penasa here. Let's see which Penasa turns up, Romandie or Chile.
Thanks for the preview
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 22-01-2023 15:00
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Classics Specialist
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It's clear that we lack a rider which can make themselves useful in a race like this. Our best bet is that Elissonde has some amazing performances and gets himself into the top 10 and that Vingerling is able to freewheel to a good sprint finish on one of the two stages.
Every single top tier stage racer in PCT seems to be here which is going to super fun to follow. Thanks for the preview!
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 22-01-2023 15:31
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Classics Specialist
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It will be interesting to see what Pomoshnikov can do here as the field is looking stronger than we'd have liked for a race this long.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 22-01-2023 18:31
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Always kinda hurts to lose a sprint that close, but opening the race with a 3rd place obviously ain't bad! Haig had a good position imo, coming to the line, but congratulations to those two ahead of us.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 22-01-2023 19:12
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Classics Specialist
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By far our worst performance since promoting, which in of itself is fine, but we're most likely not getting any GC points from here now. Puts a lot of pressure on Vingerling to do his thing.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 22-01-2023 19:20
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World Champion
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Haha, that's Oomen's terrific Tour of Chile stage 3 performance just a day late. The jetlag did wonders for my boy though! Every second we take on the competition could be important.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 22-01-2023 20:09
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
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F
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 22-01-2023 20:40
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Some really surprising results here, with Haig probably moving up to pole position for now. Really disappointing by Quintana, though, who did so well in this race last year. Kritskiy, though, wtf...
On the other hand, insane race by Pogacar!
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