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USA Pro Cycling Challenge Discussion
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| redordead |
Posted on 27-12-2022 08:14
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
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 USA Pro Cycling Challenge 
Welcome to the 9th edition of the USA Pro Cycling Challenge. The race that wanted to have the longest name in the game, but the MGUCI said they must shorten "United States of America" to "USA" and that's how the race came to be. Slight joke there. This majestic race used to be more of a climbers race with as many as 8 stages, back in the good old days. Nowadays it's a sprinters race across 4 days. With the F1 bonus seconds system, the most consistent sprinter should win this race, but the final time-trial will shake things up. Those lacking there could lose a good GC placing on the final day.
| Sprinter | FL | RS | SP | AC | Lead out | FL | RS | SP | AC |  Guerao | 72 | 61 | 81 | 73 | Aberasturi | 73 | 69 | 78 | 76 |  Kanter | 75 | 73 | 79 | 80 | Nyoni | 67 | 69 | 70 | 68 |  Scully | 74 | 70 | 79 | 80 | Archbold | 72 | 69 | 72 | 73 |  Perera | 71 | 73 | 79 | 80 | Tivani | 70 | 78 | 77 | 78 |  Guardini | 71 | 67 | 79 | 80 | Domene | 73 | 68 | 74 | 75 |  Keough | 73 | 73 | 79 | 79 | Rathe | 73 | 71 | 74 | 76 |  Matthews | 76 | 67 | 79 | 79 | Prasad | 74 | 74 | 78 | 79 |  Boudat | 73 | 74 | 79 | 78 | Merlier | 73 | 72 | 78 | 74 |  Bennett | 71 | 68 | 79 | 79 | Nelson | 70 | 61 | 79 | 78 |  Willwohl | 73 | 67 | 79 | 78 | Grosser | 70 | 72 | 75 | 75 |  Rajovic | 72 | 76 | 78 | 82 | Altanzul | 72 | 73 | 78 | 75 |  Gibbons | 75 | 72 | 78 | 78 | Habtom | 75 | 75 | 77 | 78 |  Boivin | 73 | 69 | 78 | 79 | Thiery | 72 | 73 | 72 | 73 |  Itami | 73 | 64 | 78 | 79 | Dzervus | 73 | 72 | 77 | 77 |  Aregger | 73 | 71 | 78 | 77 | Cohen | 73 | 69 | 77 | 76 |  Bogdanovics | 73 | 69 | 78 | 77 | Drapac | 68 | 60 | 77 | 74 |
I don't think Guerao is the best sprinter here, but I'll just put him top so the table looks a bit nicer. Kanter, Scully, Perera and Guardini might be the best sprinters on paper. The overall favourite has to be Keough although he's never won this race before, something has always conspired against him. Rajovic stands out as a 78 sprinter with clearly the best acceleration here.
An interesting fact is that many of the 'lead outs' listed here are far better prologue riders than the designated sprinter. I doubt (m)any of them will get a chance to sprint for themselves. Just some food for thought.
| FL | RS | PR | | FL | RS | PR | | FL | RS | PR | | Chavanne | 75 | 76 | 82 | Erdenebat | 75 | 78 | 79 |  Brändle | 74 | 71 | 78 | | Kopfauf | 69 | 74 | 81 | Frame | 71 | 74 | 79 | Aregger | 73 | 71 | 78 | | Keough | 73 | 73 | 80 | Boudat | 73 | 74 | 78 | Sterobo | 70 | 69 | 78 |
We know prologues or epilogues in this case, are notoriously random events, but in Chavanne and Kopfauf we've seen two riders that have mostly performed to their favoured stats so far. Keough has a victory from this stage in 2020 and he'll be looking for every second advantage he can get.
Full startlist:
Spoiler | Scully | Tom | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Skala | Jakub | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Diaz | Daniel Ricardo | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Phelan | Adam | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Shalunov | Evgeny | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Vink | Michael | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Puccio | Salvatore | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Archbold | Shane | Air New Zealand p/b Pirelli | | Gibbons | Ryan | Bianchi - Panerai | | Silva | Nihal | Bianchi - Panerai | | Manakov | Viktor | Bianchi - Panerai | | Habtom | Mikiel | Bianchi - Panerai | | Dakteris | Janis | Bianchi - Panerai | | Larsen | Trond | Bianchi - Panerai | | Rajovic | Dusan | BNZ-Superhero Racing | | Erdenebat | Bilguunjargal | BNZ-Superhero Racing | | Altanzul | Maani | BNZ-Superhero Racing | | Mudgway | Luke | BNZ-Superhero Racing | | Orue | German Anibal | BNZ-Superhero Racing | | Erdenesuren | Munkhtulga | BNZ-Superhero Racing | | Batmunkh | Maral-Erdene | BNZ-Superhero Racing | | Kopfauf | Markus | BNZ-Superhero Racing | | Boudat | Thomas | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Barbier | Rudy | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Russo | Clement | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Merlier | Tim | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Nommela | Aksel | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Welsford | Samuel | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Reynders | Jens | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Pajur | Markus | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | | Guerao | Oscar | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Pacher | Quentin | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Rodriguez | Cristian | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Aberasturi | Jon | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Insausti | Jon Ander | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Martin | Sergio | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Mottin | Hugues | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Lazkano | Oier | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Brändle | Matthias | BWT Hyundai N Cycling | | Robov | Momchil | BWT Hyundai N Cycling | | Richardson | Chequan | BWT Hyundai N Cycling | | Stoenchev | Valentin | BWT Hyundai N Cycling | | De Luna | Flavio | BWT Hyundai N Cycling | | Tzortzakis | Polychronis | BWT Hyundai N Cycling | | Hocevar | Kristjan | BWT Hyundai N Cycling | | Serrano | Gonzalo | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Guardini | Andrea | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Barbero | Carlos | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Domene | Ramon | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Barcelo | Fernando | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Balloni | Alfredo | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Adriamihajanarivo | Herizo | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Govekar | Matevz | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Garcia | Jhojan | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Dzervus | Darijus | Colombini-Adler AP | | Quispe | Alain | Colombini-Adler AP | | Laizer | Richard Laningo | Colombini-Adler AP | | Sprenger | Felix | Colombini-Adler AP | | Giulietti | Luigi | Colombini-Adler AP | | Aquilani | Andrea | Colombini-Adler AP | | Itami | Kenji | Colombini-Adler AP | | Gonzales | Andre Alexander | Colombini-Adler AP | | Bogdanovics | Maris | Eddie Stobart | | Umerbekov | Nikita | Eddie Stobart | | Cimolai | Davide | Eddie Stobart | | Drapac | Damion | Eddie Stobart | | Taillefour | Fabien | Eddie Stobart | | Dahlberg | Linus | Eddie Stobart | | Joeaar | Gert | Eddie Stobart | | Bennett | Sam | Glanbia | | Nelson | Ricki | Glanbia | | Dunne | Conor | Glanbia | | Frame | Alex | Glanbia | | Oram | James | Glanbia | | Curley | Liam | Glanbia | | Juneau | Francis | Glanbia | | Murphy | Jack Bernard | Glanbia | | Aregger | Marcel | Jura GIANTS | | Stocker | Manuel | Jura GIANTS | | Chavanne | Gabriel | Jura GIANTS | | Cohen | Noam | Jura GIANTS | | Marchewka | Krzysztof | Jura GIANTS | | Matsangos | Alexandros | Jura GIANTS | | Janssen | Christoph | Jura GIANTS | | Boivin | Guillaume | Le Creuset | | Thiery | Cyrile | Le Creuset | | Piccoli | James | Le Creuset | | Boileau | Alan | Le Creuset | | Louvel | Matis | Le Creuset | | Balmer | Alexandre | Le Creuset | | Kmieliauskas | Rokas | Le Creuset | | Garibian | Arman | Le Creuset | | Keough | Luke | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Rathe | Jakob | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Matte | Charles | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Rodriguez Galindo | Michael | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Hecht | Gage | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Granigan | Noah | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Mostov | Zeke | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Jallays | Welle | McCormick Pro Cycling | | Perera | Madushanka | Oktal Pharma - TotalTV | | Sterobo | Rasmus | Oktal Pharma - TotalTV | | Tivani | German Nicolas | Oktal Pharma - TotalTV | | Andersen | Michael Valgren | Oktal Pharma - TotalTV | | Yzeiraj | Marildo | Oktal Pharma - TotalTV | | Archibald | John | Oktal Pharma - TotalTV | | Richardson | Alexander | Oktal Pharma - TotalTV | | Fejes | Gabor | Oktal Pharma - TotalTV | | Matthews | Michael | Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller | | Prasad | Darshana | Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller | | Favilli | Elia | Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller | | Moschetti | Matteo | Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller | | Johansen | Julius | Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller | | Price-Pejtersen | Johan | Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller | | Major | Jay | Podium Ambition | | Matthews | Darren | Podium Ambition | | Vanderpool | Kristian | Podium Ambition | | Sinclair | Shaquille | Podium Ambition | | Norbert | Andrew | Podium Ambition | | Croes | Jonathan | Podium Ambition | | Alexander | Nathan | Podium Ambition | | Perez | Cristian | Podium Ambition | | Willwohl | Willi | Staffbase - BHP | | Grosser | Aaron | Staffbase - BHP | | Predatsch | Kevin | Staffbase - BHP | | Plapp | Luke | Staffbase - BHP | | Van Dijke | Tim | Staffbase - BHP | | Lipowitz | Florian | Staffbase - BHP | | Berwick | Sebastian | Staffbase - BHP | | Plowright | Jensen | Staffbase - BHP | | Kanter | Max | Tryg - Gobik | | Johannessen | Tobias Halland | Tryg - Gobik | | Frison | Frederik | Tryg - Gobik | | Omarsson | Ingvar | Tryg - Gobik | | Bellan | Juraj | Tryg - Gobik | | Adria | Roger | Tryg - Gobik | | Iversen | Rasmus | Tryg - Gobik | | Nyoni | Similo | Tryg - Gobik | | Herrada | Jesus | Volcanica - Fox | | Huertas | Jason | Volcanica - Fox | | Montenegro | Santiago | Volcanica - Fox | | Chumil | Sergio | Volcanica - Fox | | Mendoza | Bryan Fernando | Volcanica - Fox | | Arias Villanueva | Sergio | Volcanica - Fox | | Gomez | Nicolas David | Volcanica - Fox | | Samudio | Joseph Ivan | Volcanica - Fox |
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| MacC |
Posted on 27-12-2022 08:57
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
Joined: 15-07-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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Thanks Red.
This is a win goal for Glanbia but can't see it happening.
Were this not down to the AI I'd actually have Bennett acting as lead out for Frame so he could capitalise on the prologue. We've seen Bennett lose this race on that final day before ....
Keough winning here would be a huge victory for McCormick after the California result! It's definitely a possibility but too many random factors to say it's likely.
Good luck all
Having Nelson here now seems like a big mistake given how well the Frame/Bennett team worked in California.
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 27-12-2022 10:09
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Team Leader
Posts: 7294
Joined: 11-04-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Hopefully Kopfauf and Rajovic continue their excellent form! As well as Erdenebat! Really excited to see how we go in a race that favours us a lot!!
Good luck everyone!!!
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 27-12-2022 12:18
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2933
Joined: 09-05-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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It's weird to put a climber as your leader in a race where there are 0 climbs 
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 27-12-2022 16:11
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3262
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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A big one for us, as with the last 3 years our win goals since it runs through our sponsors home town and Keough really is the perfect rider for this.
But that was probably more true the last two years when I think the fields were a little weaker and he managed 5th and 8th. As Red notes events have tended to conspire against him. But this year run it is with MT stages so hopefully no GC bug which was a pretty big problem for a prologue specialist in this race.
My big fear is he will be the 4th best sprinter and not even try on the sprints.
Looking forward to it.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 27-12-2022 19:36
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
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Going to be interesting to see if Kopfauf can keep winning these short TTs that he's been doing since signing for BNZ, this sprint field is impossible to predict though.
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 28-12-2022 08:28
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 808
Joined: 05-10-2021
PCM$: 600.00
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I don't think Guerao is the stronger sprinter either, but I would love some more show of power from him. Let's go team!
Thanks for the preview! |
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| MacC |
Posted on 28-12-2022 11:33
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
Joined: 15-07-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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Hmm,. not bad, Bennett stills hold the respect of PCM!
If he gets a consistent lead out he can score some decent points here
Well done Guerao
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 10:00
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 28-12-2022 11:36
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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Yay, 100% continuing our current shitshow. Just a plain awful result, but I guess that's even more true for Keough/McCormick. 3 more opportunities, but with how things are currently going I can't expect much. And what I especially dislike is Chavanne's positioning - the additional mountain stages probably aren't a good thing at all for him.
Congrats to Guerao, seems like red's favorites list wasn't that wrong ^^
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 28-12-2022 16:15
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3262
Joined: 02-11-2010
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Uh oh.
This also illustrates one of the other idiosyncrasies of PCM sprint AI - that it considers stamina in evaluating the sprinters despite it not being relevant to most stages. So while Keough is better FL and RS and same SP and AC as Bennett, Bennett gets preference based on a higher stamina. Which is nice for Mac.
Guerao still has something in the legs. Thanks for the report.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 29-12-2022 13:32
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 808
Joined: 05-10-2021
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Commiserations to McCormick and Jura, though I'm quite happy you left some for the others.
And yeay, first stage win for us! Seems like Oscar finally decided to challenge Mikkel as our best scorer.
Now let's hope that this leader jersey will continue to give him good legs in the third stage, to maybe keep it one day more.
Thanks for the report red! |
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 29-12-2022 13:34
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
PCM$: 0.00
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Two stages, no breakaways and no sprints. Doubt we'll get any score from this race.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 29-12-2022 18:21
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3262
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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Good to see a leadout pay off, congrats to Caja.
Guerao much better than I would have thought with 1st and 3rd, consistency is what wins this kind of race.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 29-12-2022 20:36
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
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Ouch, didn't know Aregger could ever be rated that low to not even try to join the sprint... Extremely disappointing race so far, given that no-one even tried any breakaway either. Having no stage favorite and no attacker just doesn't make sense, but that's plain PCM logic. Guess we'll have to be happy with some minor GC and epilogue stage points here, as those gaps will be way too large to make up for with just the final stage.
OK, maybe Guardini as one of the worst prologue riders could still be caught; but congrats anyway for the stage win. And Guerao's consistency is just... surprising, confirming again that acceleration doesn't really matter with PCM20, and resistance doesn't even matter at all (at least for sprints).
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 30-12-2022 13:16
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 808
Joined: 05-10-2021
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Well, everything gets back in order.
I guess that the two previous two stages efforts were too much for Guerao to be in front for the third day, he kind of had the same in Tachira at the beginning of the season. Seems like the team wasn't really here to help either, I thought a bit more of Aberasturi.
Still a good race for us.
Thanks again for the reports red, and good luck to those who have good chances to play anything tomorrow! |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 30-12-2022 14:30
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
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We're invisible on the first two stages and then even build something like a train - I don't get PCM's logic, but I'll happily take 3rd place from Aregger here. Looks like we'll once again have to rely on him to bring home a good GC result - which isn't fully unexpected, though.
On the other hand, Chavanne missing out on the split is really bad. In one of the only races on the calendar where prologue specialists really have a shot at the GC, they're put out of competition due to a split (at least Chavanne and Kopfauf) - and I'm 99% that this is due to the additional mountain stages leading to the PRL riders no longer being considered GC favorites and hence the AI not caring about their positioning. While that may fix some issues with the purely flat stage races, I'm no fan of using them for races containing TTs, sorry.
Guys like Keough, Scully, Boudat or Aregger now even benefit twice from that (on paper) - being ahead by bonus seconds, and the pure TTers being removed from the competition by splits...
Well, I'm definitely happy with Aregger's performance today, which should ensure another Top10 GC, but I'd still like those additional stages to be reconsidered for this kind of race. It honestly sucks to have the two best prologue riders being removed from GC competition, but I think that they wouldn't get into the Top10 anyway without bonus seconds.
Congrats to Bianchi, let's see if those 23+ seconds are sufficient for the epilogue - if Gibbons gets another great day he should indeed take the GC. And good to see Keough finally involved, at least the GC podium should now be possible 
Thanks for the report to red.
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| MacC |
Posted on 30-12-2022 15:51
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
Joined: 15-07-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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I have absolutely no idea how the final GC will look...
Good that Frame didn't lose time but Bennett will drop down like a stone...
Well done Bianchi. I really fancied Gibbons before the season but couldn't make it work.
PS also just noticed Oram survived the split ..
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 30-12-2022 23:09
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3262
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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Would have been nice if Keough could have held on to that huge lead and taken his first stage win but since I had resigned myself to him not even trying 2nd is pretty exciting. Then again had he won he would have been heavy favorite for the GC but on the other hand he should be good for a top 5 and at least not a total failure on our goal.
Fabianski wrote:
In one of the only races on the calendar where prologue specialists really have a shot at the GC, they're put out of competition due to a split (at least Chavanne and Kopfauf) - and I'm 99% that this is due to the additional mountain stages leading to the PRL riders no longer being considered GC favorites and hence the AI not caring about their positioning. While that may fix some issues with the purely flat stage races, I'm no fan of using them for races containing TTs, sorry.
Yes agree that is the reason they don't care on the split. But I would argue:
(1) there isn't always going to be a split so it may not impact them
(2) with three sprint stages the race is always more for the sprinters with PRL than the pure PRL. PRL guys who also have TT have plenty of other races for them. Kopkauf and Chavanne don't meet that but then both are on 50k so any points are a bonus not a right and the have both done pretty well already.
(3) without the MT stage the good PRL sprinters start with a huge disadvantage as they will not sprint at all until they are out of contention. So you end up with a perverse situation that you have a race that is conceptually set up for SP/PRL guys but which actually saddles them with a big disadvantage. Why even have the race if it is going to disadvantage the exact rider type who it is supposed to favor.
I don't like the MT solution either for a bunch of reasons. I haven't had time to do more testing on PCM22 sprints although I am not optimistic. I like the idea of eliminating the pure sprint GCs and let them get more points for the points jersey in other races. Rather than continually fighting the AI.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 30-12-2022 23:25
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
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Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
Kopkauf and Chavanne don't meet that but then both are on 50k so any points are a bonus not a right and the have both done pretty well already.
I agree that pure prologue specialists are too cheap if they actually do well in prologues (which is far from granted, but has worked out for this duo especially so far). Still, if you get a rider with a given race in mind and then he doesn't perform, that's always disappointing. No matter the rider's price tag.
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
(3) without the MT stage the good PRL sprinters start with a huge disadvantage as they will not sprint at all until they are out of contention.
OK, I didn't realize that one. I thought that was to fix the "Top 3 GC not sprinting" bug - which didn't really work out in their favor though, with only Guerao on stage 2 getting another notable result. But if that's indeed true, OK, I guess that's a fair point. As I said, I never expected Chavanne to challenge for the win, but Top 10-15.
Could the point about "until they are out of contention" explain why both Keough and Aregger suddenly started sprinting on S3, or is that just daily sprinter picking randomness?
Btw, I could also live with pure sprint GC races being eliminated, if either points jerseys are worth more, or if the GT points system is adopted for other stage races as well (more points on flat stages than on those favoring climbers).
Given the domination of flat beasts in flat classics either, maybe some other formats like Sprint Challenge in ICL or SN's proposed Keirin format could give sprinters more scoring chances as well - but I guess that's rather something for the suggestions thread.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 30-12-2022 23:52
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3262
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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Fabianski wrote:
Could the point about "until they are out of contention" explain why both Keough and Aregger suddenly started sprinting on S3, or is that just daily sprinter picking randomness?
In the testing I did a high PRL guy was considered a GC favorite in a flat race with an epilogue and wouldn't ride the first few stages until they fell well behind. I think you see that in 2020's results. But the MT stage should have fixed that (assuming Red is using that) so I am not sure what happened this year. When there are a lot of sprinters only the top 5-8 sprint every stage and then the others will participate some of the time. So maybe that is what happened.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
