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Volta a Portugal Discussion
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| roturn |
Posted on 15-10-2022 20:21
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One big climb on the final day could be enough to make this race a stage racer event with additional 5,1 and 23,8 ITTs.
The other days are rather hilly, which explains why some top puncheurs are here as well in the hope to mix the GC up a bit with 2 potential sprint stages as well.
GC wise it`s hard to see past  Phinney. Being best on the climbs, easily best on the ITTs and also very strong in the hills. In theory you could see him 5 stages here plus GC and points ranking!
 Madrazo on paper is best of the rest. A weaker or more normal version of Phinney at age 34.
Oomen, Barguil, Galta and Aular are similar riders and will surely be in the podium discussion with Bennett, Rodrigues, Guldhammer not far off neither.
Then lots of riders with a potential top5-10 as well such as Mavrikakis, Cort Nielsen or the U25 competitors Pogacar, Habtemichael and Inkelaar with first being the only one without a stronger rider next to him.
| Mo | Hi | TT | | Mo | Hi | TT | | Phinney | 85 | 77 | 83 |  Sosnitskiy | 78 | 72 | 64 | | Madrazo | 83 | 74 | 75 | Petelin | 78 | 74 | 62 |  Oomen | 81 | 75 | 74 |  Bartl | 77 | 72 | 71 |  Galta | 81 | 73 | 73 |  Rodriguez | 77 | 75 | 70 |  Barguil | 81 | 75 | 70 | Senni | 77 | 73 | 74 | | Aular | 81 | 72 | 70 |  Borisavljevic | 77 | 73 | 74 |  Bennett | 81 | 76 | 65 |  Spanopoulos | 77 | 75 | 72 | | Rodrigues | 80 | 73 | 74 | Schir | 77 | 72 | 72 |  Guldhammer | 80 | 76 | 70 | Eg | 77 | 71 | 74 | | Inkelaar | 80 | 70 | 64 | Salinas | 77 | 73 | 71 | | Mavrikakis | 79 | 72 | 71 |  O'Connor | 77 | 70 | 71 |  Garby | 79 | 70 | 68 |  Burke | 77 | 76 | 69 | | Habtemichael | 78 | 74 | 74 | Bouchard | 77 | 74 | 67 | | Pogacar | 78 | 75 | 74 |  Mamykin | 77 | 72 | 67 |  Cort Nielsen | 78 | 74 | 72 | Power | 77 | 70 | 66 |  Vingegaard | 78 | 70 | 71 | Aranburu | 77 | 79 | 63 | | Henao Montoya | 78 | 67 | 67 | Jaramillo | 77 | 75 | 60 | | Gregaard | 78 | 71 | 66 |  Kolar | 77 | 75 | 61 | | Ndayisenga | 78 | 75 | 65 |  Amezawa | 77 | 77 | 64 |  Manfredi | 78 | 65 | 65 | Bardet | 77 | 74 | 59 |
Then we have a couple of stage hunters. The puncheurs are some of the very best. Lutsenko, Skujins, Mohoric are potential monument winners with Koretzky not far off. Buchmann, Turgis, Aranburu the next here. Some of these might hope to gain time on the hills and avoid a big gap in the mountain stage. Though all of them are rather poor against the clock which will make it difficult to reach a high GC normally.
The sprinters are led by Eislers, Van Poppel and Kemboi. With only 2 difficult sprint finishes, this is a bit surprising to see them here. Kemboi might actually have the prologue in addition.
A few more interesting hilly sprinters here in Ackermann, Theuns and others.
| Mo | Hi | TT | | Hi | Sp | Acc | | Lutsenko | 73 | 83 | 68 | Eislers | 66 | 81 | 76 | | Mohoric | 71 | 83 | 64 | Van Poppel | 64 | 81 | 78 | | Skujins | 70 | 83 | 59 | Kemboi | 64 | 80 | 80 | | Buchmann | 76 | 81 | 67 | Banaszek | 65 | 79 | 81 | | Koretzky | 71 | 81 | 63 | Kennett | 65 | 79 | 78 | | Aranburu | 77 | 79 | 63 | Havik | 64 | 79 | 76 | | Chernetskiy | 71 | 79 | 66 | Ackermann | 77 | 77 | 80 | | Turgis | 67 | 79 | 65 | Theuns | 74 | 77 | 76 | | Kanerva | 64 | 79 | 70 |  Thijssen | 62 | 77 | 79 | | Storer | 75 | 78 | 69 | Trondsen | 72 | 76 | 76 | | Reichenbach | 72 | 78 | 66 | Andersen | 65 | 76 | 74 | | Strakhov | 70 | 78 | 67 | Korosec | 75 | 75 | 78 |
Phinney is kind of top favourite for both TTs. The longer one though by a lot seeing the gap to the next best time trialist.
In the opener Kragh Andersen mainly will give him a proper 50:50 defeat chance though with also Schomber and Kemboi or Kennett are names to watch there.
| TT | Prologue | | Prologue | TT | | Phinney | 83 | 83 | Andersen | 83 | 70 | | Campenaerts | 78 | 78 | Schomber | 81 | 74 | | Christodoulos | 78 | 79 | Kemboi | 81 | 63 | | Van Niekerk | 78 | 77 | Kennett | 78 | 69 | | Sajnok | 78 | 79 | Oomen | 77 | 74 | | De Bod | 77 | 77 | Pszczolarski | 77 | 74 | | Wolf | 77 | 75 | | | | | Penko | 76 | 76 | | | | | Wohler | 76 | 76 | | | | | Madrazo | 75 | 75 | | | | | Canty | 75 | 74 | | | | | Ghyselinck | 75 | 75 | | | |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 19:05
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 15-10-2022 20:47
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Phinney is in another league (wasn't expecting him here with that many race days), but Oomen should be fighting for the podium (and some much needed points).
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| ember |
Posted on 15-10-2022 21:22
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Kragh for the prologue, and then Mohoric to chase stage wins, with Amezawa hopefully also following and being present on the hills to give him a shot at a decent GC. That was the plan selecting our team here, not sure if it will work out 
Kind of good to see other top puncheurs here, though, I think, as that could and should favour Mohoric and the pure puncheurs on the hilly stages, making it easier to create gaps and ride away together with other puncheurs. |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 15-10-2022 21:31
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This is big, Phinney needs to dominate to make it worthwile but I'm a little sceptical, could well see us only take over yellow at the 2nd time trial. We got a good squad for the race though (blame calendar issues for Phinney to be here), so it's important to build a lead in points here.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 15-10-2022 21:33
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Yup, that's me. The guy who made this a top 5 goal. 
Given the TT especially, Guldhammer has to be our primary GC guy here, and I would have had a lot of confidence in a top 5 here before his decline. His acceleration, sprint, and hill were better than most of the stage racers. After decline though, not sure his advantages there can make up for his poor energy stats. Top 10 is probably still in the cards, but top 5 seems out of reach without some extreme daily form luck.
We've stacked our roster behind him with all the climbers we have, even though it's only one mountain stage. Hoping that on the PTHC points scale that makes sense for depth scoring too. A guy like Eg could hang around the 20-30 positions and get a good haul if he goes for it. That could be key is getting some success from this race.
Then there's the Aranburu factor. Can't avoid it forever. This is his debut race after training, and especially having two puncheurs, I couldn't resist bring him to a hybrid stage race like this. Hopefully he and Guldhammer are able to coexist. We'll see how he does agains the puncheurs, but his final GC position in this race definitely won't be an indicator of how his training worked out anyway. His mtn/hill ratio aside, his lack of TT is what does him in here. He'll lose minutes against the clock. So it will be all about stage hunting on the hills and seeing from there.
Definitely wasn't expecting Phinney here. That's a lot of PTHC race days for him. Guaranteed win though, and I will never be the one to question Croatia's calendar planning. Also surprised to see a few top sprinters here. I flirted with the idea of sending Lander here as a secondary guy, but I worried the flat stages would be bumpy enough to go to breakaways, and wasting 10 race days is a huge risk.
Thanks for the preview roturn!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 15-10-2022 22:10
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baseballlover312 wrote:
Definitely wasn't expecting Phinney here. That's a lot of PTHC race days for him. Guaranteed win though, and I will never be the one to question Croatia's calendar planning. Also surprised to see a few top sprinters here.
It was a close call between sending Phinney or Gaviria actually. In the aftermath I didn't choose the perfect PTHC bands, but with almost no fitting PT race days Phinney will spend more time in PTHC than in PT iirc, so prepare to see him more often 
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| knockout |
Posted on 15-10-2022 23:30
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Had i known that my pursuit of Lecuisinier would be succesful but would require a Chiarello trade, I'd have given up on this band. Now, my lineup here looks quite rubbish. (Rightfully) not getting a mention for climbers when 40 climbers are listed, says it all. It's basically Sergis + Gavars for uphill breaks, Thijssen for sprints, maybe Pszczolarski for the prolog, ... I'm grasping at straws here.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 15-10-2022 23:41
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Miss the days when Bennett was 5th (78MO) and 3rd (80MO) here. Every since I trained him to 81 he's sucked (also because of the profile changes of course, removing stages) and failed to Top 10. And yet this keeps being a band we come to Will be very tough to turn it around looking at the other TT stats in that left hand column.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 16-10-2022 01:10
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No expecations for us here. Was considering to send Haig here, if we had managed to keep Morton for other key races, but as things stand now, I just hope for our guys to join breakaways (looking at you, Lucas Hamilton and Michael Storer) as much as possible - preferably in every stage  Pretty sure we once took the KoM classification in this race - I'm not sure though. Anyway, this is our hidden goal, even though it needs a very lucky dice.
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| TinxiaS |
Posted on 16-10-2022 09:13
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I'm not sure what to expect form my team in this race but I jost hope on some nice results in stages as the GC will be extremly hard for us as Garby's TT is to weak probably.
Thanks for preview roturn
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| SotD |
Posted on 16-10-2022 09:24
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Pretty happy I didn’t waste Chiarello here, as a top 10 wouldn’t even be guaranteed.
Mavrikakis and Spanopoulos as leaders will be interesting, but probably not awarding.
Phinney here is a gamble I’d say, let’s see what happens :-)
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 16-10-2022 10:43
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knockout wrote:
Had i known that my pursuit of Lecuisinier would be succesful but would require a Chiarello trade, I'd have given up on this band.
Didn't have to do knockout like that
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| knockout |
Posted on 16-10-2022 11:31
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jandal7 wrote:
knockout wrote:
Had i known that my pursuit of Lecuisinier would be succesful but would require a Chiarello trade, I'd have given up on this band.
Didn't have to do knockout like that
SotD doesnt know yet how special Chiarello is...
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| SotD |
Posted on 16-10-2022 11:53
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The startlist was quite a lot weaker last year IIRC and he’ll be a GT master :-D
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 16-10-2022 12:02
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Croatia14 wrote:
baseballlover312 wrote:
Definitely wasn't expecting Phinney here. That's a lot of PTHC race days for him. Guaranteed win though, and I will never be the one to question Croatia's calendar planning. Also surprised to see a few top sprinters here.
It was a close call between sending Phinney or Gaviria actually. In the aftermath I didn't choose the perfect PTHC bands, but with almost no fitting PT race days Phinney will spend more time in PTHC than in PT iirc, so prepare to see him more often
I don't like the sound of that Second place has to be the goal here for Madrazo, with that big of a mountain advantage over the rest. But with TTs being as wonky as they are, he might lose a good bit of time there, perhaps even more on hills, and then have everyone somehow hang on in the mountains. That's worst case, though. A podium is very much needed, Madrazo's race days are far and few between. Thanks for the nice preview, looking forward to the reports!
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 16-10-2022 17:28
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We've sent a team of climbers and puncheurs here with the hope to aim for the KOM and breaks. Thought about sending Dunbar here until I saw that Phinney would be making an appearance and decided that would be a horrible idea Even without him it's a strong startlist this season. Hope we can get lucky and slip into a few breaks and maybe steal a stage win?
Thanks for the preview roturn!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| redordead |
Posted on 17-10-2022 07:49
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Looks like a decent enough startlist for us to compete. Unfortunately due to the Hong Kong result this now becomes a pressure to perform race.
It doesn't feel right to be pinning my hopes on a lvl 4 rider, but hopefully he's as capable as some ppl keep saying he is.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 17-10-2022 08:39
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We're all in on stage success for Lutsenko here, with 5 stages that might suit him.
Any GC points are a welcome addition.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 17-10-2022 11:14
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Sad to see Schomber not able to defend his crown here. He'll be back stronger and hungrier than ever. Solid start from Habtemichael, I am too blessed to be stressed by knowing where Bennett finished so I won't check
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 17-10-2022 11:27
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I should be happy with this, but 1 second short of the stage win, yellow, green and team classification still stings a bit
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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