Guess who’s back, back again? The Conglomerate are back, tell 66 managers!
With Eminem out of the way, let us proudly bring to you our PCT preview for the 2022 MG season, which is now our sixth year of doing this epic shit. This preview was created as a cooperation between AbhishekLFC, Croatia14, jandal and knockout.
This preview consists of four parts:
1. Review of 2021: Last season we posted a similar preview and we want to review some of our statements from last season for a fact check, as well as seeing how our final predictions stacked up against the real rankings.
2. Questions of the season: We discussed several important questions for the season in a Roundtable format where four of us gave our own point of view on certain topics. All questions discussed here are questions relating to the entire division. The number of questions have been reduced from previous editions of this preview.
3. Overview of the squads: This section consists of two parts:
3a: Team talking points: We sat down and spoke about each of the teams. Sometimes we made sense, mostly it was blabbering monologues.
3b: Grades per terrain: We all tried to rate the strength of each team on each terrain to give an overview about how strong we rate the teams on the terrains. We included points in a "hybrid terrain" category when the team has riders that are stronger on any hybrid terrains than in the specialized races.
We also tried to come up with a ranking based on the grades of part 3b.
4. Final predictions: Every predictor tried to predict the final ranking table after we looked intensively at each team. These rankings are fully subjective.
We start off by recalling some of our predictions for the 2021 season (including some quotes), mostly to let you know how seriously you should take us. FYI, we take this very seriously! What did we predict for the PCT in 2021?
Prediction 1: We all picked Carlsberg to be the best of the promoted teams, with one of us hedging his bets to mixed effect…
AbhishekLFC: Carlsberg has taken the cake, with especially the signings of Guldhammer and Trentin.
knockout: The thing that impresses me the most is the collective quality of the promoted teams (…) but I’ve got to agree with Abhishek that Carlsberg looks the strongest.
Croatia14: Looking at the team squad you gotta pick Carlsberg with two PT-worthy leaders and good depth. really like what Nemolito did with Los Pollos Hermanos, a clear focus on long-term leaders (Manninen & Zmorka) and short term safety (Spilak). Also let me mention Bralirwa for combining a PCT.worthy squad with strengthening the regional focus. (...) Tryg is my “winner” though, despite paying A LOT they got some huge leaders in Wellens and Skujins that should be a perfect base to build on for a promotion push to PT over the next two years.
Fact: At the end of June, we must have all been doing our arm stretches in preparation to pat ourselves on the back, but in the last few months of the year Carlsberg fell from 4th to 12th. It was Croatia’s second team of Los Pollos who moved into that spot and achieved back-to-back promotions… However his “winner” in Tryg - Ritter Sport came home in 25th, just one spot off of last! Bralirwa also beat out Carlsberg, coming inside the Top 10 after a very impressive year.
Prediction 2: We called out Indosat, Jura, Philips, Sauber, Carrefour, Binance, Cedevita, Eurosport and Podium Ambition as main contenders for relegation, with Bralirwa, Los Pollos and Red Bull possibly in the mix.
knockout: Two of the most at risk teams are Jura - Fiat and Indooosat OoooredoooO who both rely strongly on the scoring of their highest earning leader and I’m not entirely convinced that they are strong enough to carry enough of their team on their back.
Croatia14: …Going by my puncheur thesis, I think that Eurosport, Cedevita and Philips might be in trouble. I fear Carrefour, Binance and Jura-Fiat may have some trouble due to hill constraints, but I can see some surprise relegations and almost every team needs to watch its backs this year. Podium Ambition went for the risk of neglecting several terrains,...
jandal: Aside from the names mentioned already since it’s so open I’ll with a heavy heart throw out the names of Bralirwa (who have a great likeable squad but lack a bit of oomph for me and will need their lesser names to step up or their leaders to go nuts) and even Los Pollos if their leaders don’t fire and, dare I say it… Red Bull.
Fact: Oh jandal! Jura, Eurosport, Carrefour and Podium Ambition did relegate. Los Pollos promoted to PT! The Evonik curse was real!!
Prediction 3: We picked Aker, Polar and cycleYorkshire as the most likely to get promoted.
Fact: Well done to us!
Prediction 4: We said Carlsberg had the best transfer window. We also thought Tryg had done well, with Aker and Red Bull also mentioned. Los Pollos and cycle Yorkshire also got a mention.
Croatia14:: The easy answer would be Carlsberg as probably the strongest promoted team. But at the same time their leaders are 32, so I go for a team that did very well building a base for the future. Wellens and Skujins are awesome to build on if you can avoid relegation. Cedevita brought in awesome talents, Project Africa possibly got the biggest bargain in Bobridge. My choice goes with Red Bull Zalgiris forever. They sold their old riders well, ensured good leaders and signed great young guns like Leknessund and Halvorsen for really cheap. That was a considerable effort well done.
AbhishekLFC: Carlsberg for me with Tryg being the conditional second. I like what Los Pollos did as well with leaders (barring Maksimov) but a lot of their success depends on the game I think, which is unfortunate.
Fact: Los Pollos were the runaway winners with Manninen and Zmorka both in the top 5. Bralirwa next with two (Silvestre and Stallaert) in the Top 12. Carlsberg had their top two in 14th and 15th place in the final standings. Wellens did well for Tryg, Skuijns did not.
Here we could write a long post explaining what we predicted, but a table says more than a thousand words. Let’s see how we stacked up against the final rankings:
ab
cr
ja
ko
so
1
Aker
1
1
2
1
2
2
Polar
3
7
1
2
3
3
Duolingo
11
17
13
13
15
4
Los Pollos Hermanos
16
14
18
17
8
5
cycleYorkshire
2
6
3
4
4
6
UBS
4
3
5
3
5
7
Popo4Ever
5
5
4
7
9
8
Cedevita
15
20
15
19
6
9
Kraftwerk
13
13
12
8
22
10
Bralirwa
21
18
24
20
17
11
Binance
9
11
11
10
18
12
Carlsberg
7
4
6
5
1
13
Zalgiris
10
8
20
16
19
14
Lierse
6
9
8
12
13
15
Project: Africa
18
15
16
14
11
16
Assa Abloy
8
2
7
6
20
17
Minions
12
12
14
11
7
18
Voyagin
14
10
9
18
21
19
Philips
20
19
10
9
12
20
Indosat
14
22
22
24
26
21
Sauber
26
25
23
25
25
22
Carrefour
17
24
21
15
10
23
Jura
23
26
26
26
24
24
Podium
25
16
19
22
14
25
Tryg
19
21
17
21
16
26
Eurosport
22
23
25
23
22
ab = AbhishekLFC
ja = jandal
cr = Croatia
ko = knockout
so = statistical outcome
AbhishekLFC: The biggest change is of course the influx of stage racers and outflow of punchers. Last year’s puncher field was quite ridiculous but it isn’t so deep this time around. The opposite is true for stage racers. Cobbles is also an area that’s gone down in strength, with more versatility perhaps being the go-to strategy for a lot of managers. A lot of the attention this time, perhaps went into targeting strong TT riders, who are anyway short in supply and cost all the managers chasing them a pretty penny! Overall, I think the whole division is weaker than last season, which boils down to more CT teams this season resulting in more competition for depth.
Croatia14:: I think we start to feel the effects of decline. For the first time in quite long the division doesn’t feel stronger than last year. Maybe it was also the effect of the transfer market being very flat and the FA being low on quality, but the gap between the best and worst teams seems to have widened. I’m outspoken in favour of adding more quality riders if they add value to the game, and this year only convinced me that there should’ve been more maxed riders added, at least of Paret-Peintres quality. It might be good for “realism” to have the stats more stretched out, but I don’t like it for the gameplay and MG dynamics.
knockout: I agree with the idea that this year’s PCT looks weaker than last year. I would not want to narrow it down to specific terrains but it feels like it’s a development over almost all terrains. This is especially noteworthy at the bottom half of the division. There were quite a few teams last year that looked like they were relegation contenders last year but had a lot of potential to climb into the upper half of the table. This year there are more teams that seem to lack that upside and who will be locked into the relegation fight from the beginning.
jandal: Yep not much to add here, it looks weaker across the board - I don’t think we’d be considering a team with Wellens and Skujins anywhere near relegation this year, similarly there are teams with not much changed that look way higher than last year. Aker or some of the other previous strong promoting teams in here would have been a bloodbath.
Which repeating PCT team has turned it around the best in this transfer window?
jandal: I might well nominate myself as conductor of the Philips hype train this year, we are well and truly rolling and moving and I love what you have done with your transfers Abhi, and for me if this question was the old “who will make the biggest rankings jump” it’s between Philips and Voyagin, who have done far less and maybe even look worse than last year on paper, but for some reason I can’t bring myself to predict such a down year for them again. Also big shoutout to Bralirwa just for the Madrazo signing, we always talk about a team needing a final piece to the puzzle for promotion but Madrazo is overkill in that department and is more like the final piece of a title charge. Also like how Binance have done and what Popo4Ever and Lierse look like after changes more through training than transfers. But choo choo, Philips hype train leaving the station!
Croatia14:: Can’t really agree too much on Binance, Popo and Lierse, they all look nice but they didn’t really get those new flashy signings. Bralirwa did well to recover from the Ghirmay-disappointment, that is for sure. I like what Zalgiris did though (and would’ve liked it even more without shipping Powless further). They turned an aging team into a very healthy leadership structure, which they can build on for the next years, no matter if in PCT or even PT next year. As much as quasdas is a pain in the ass in transfers, you gotta give credit to his management skills once more. Then a small shoutout to Kraftwerk: Signing Ranaweera was amazing (maybe the buy of the season in PCT), and they always snatch up 1-2 guys I really want every transfer window.
knockout:“Popo4Ever and Lierse look like after changes more through training than transfers'' (jandal) - You picked exactly the two teams you should never mention in the same sentence with the word “changes” here. I’d say none of them even tried to turn anything around. Doesn't mean they can not improve upon last season but that disqualifies them as an answer for this specific question for me.
For me, this is between Bralirwa and Philips. Bralirwa didn’t do too much either but they added the new number one stage racer in the division to a roster that missed promotion by less than 400 points last year. Could be a sign for good fortunes this year… Philips on the other hand did a lot of interesting and good moves to turn the roster around completely and look quite different to last year and frankly speaking, a lot better than previously.
AbhishekLFC: Think Bralirwa takes it for me, and this despite spending half the transfers chasing a Lvl 1 talent to exorbitant salaries! Binance also I think have put themselves into promotion contention with their moves.
jandal: I don’t want to hear another bad word said about chasing a Lvl1 talent to exorbitant salaries in this preview!
Which newly promoted team is best suited to tackle PCT in 2022?
Croatia14:: I’d like to give a shoutout to Volcanica for making Ahlstrand the FA signing of the season. I did not expect them to look this good, but they clearly have the best sprinter in the division. I also think Strava did well at the FA market in terms of wage/reward, though I’m not sure if both will survive. Zara looks set, but they had a head start going into the season with an amazing core. So Zara and HelloFresh (also with a head start) look very good, but I like what Volcanica did and I also have to shout out Gjensidige who also have a very healthy team structure no matter if they'll be in PCT or CT next year.
knockout: Looking at all of the promoted teams, it seems obvious to me that this year was a difficult year to promote and all of them seem to have had struggles getting multiple PCT worthy leaders and i suspect that we will see many of them in the relegation fight.
I’m gonna go the easy route and say Zara. Their strong core from last year remains largely intact and they added Taaramae as a strong stage race leader so they seem to have the strongest squad of the promoting teams. But I honestly expected them to leave transfers a lot stronger with all the potential in the squad. In terms of roster additions, I want to highlight Gjensidige and HelloFresh. Both lack the one leader that is a guaranteed big scorer to flush them up the rankings but both teams added a lot of scoring options to potentially kraftwerk themselves out of the relegation fight via depth scoring / hopefully good race planning.
AbhishekLFC: Zara Irizar already had a team ready to take on the PCT and they shrewdly added Taraamae to the mix, which surprised me a little as it goes against their team building philosophy. Among the others, HelloFresh, Gjensidige and Volcanica have come out with competitive outfits for the PCT and I can see all of those three surviving this year.
jandal: I’m taking Zara and HelloFresh a step above Volcanica here, everyone else will at the very least have relegation in their rear view mirror at some point - not to say I don’t like some of their work, but as others have said it was a tough tough year to promote - hence a team like Zara who had such an awesome base coming up do well where a team like Crabbe who were so cool last year but had a lot to do in transfers (and so little time each 48 hours to do it) struggled a bit to make so much adjustments.
jandal: For me, when trying all the different ways of looking at and ranking the division I often find myself turning to tiers for doing my “expert” prediction - they are sometimes a tier of one or two, sometimes seven or eight. For me the bottom tier of PCT this year is exactly five long, and so I won’t name the five here so as not to spoil my rankings! However I’ll say although I see those five as the bottom tier and I wouldn’t be absolutely surprised if they are the five relegated teams, each team has a little something about them which I find exciting and means that I don’t have any of them as 100% nailed-on given how boggy the dogfight can get between the underachieving mediocre teams and the well-planned bad ones.
AbhishekLFC: Two teams who had a difficult transfer window, Crabbe and Trans, immediately jump out as top relegation candidates for me. Sauber looks to be in trouble once again, and Indosat are likely to be in the same boat. Strava is yet another promoted team who don’t look convincing, with Project Africa also likely to be in the mix all season from among the repeating teams.
Croatia14:: Going to go the Jandal-way of not calling out names here. You can kinda guess though at least from the promoted teams I didn’t mention, and then there are also a couple of PCT teams that I’m surprised have not made many moves. As mentioned before, I think it’s much more clear this year who might be in trouble and who might not.
knockout: The promoted teams plus Project: Africa, Sauber and Indosat.
jandal: knockout with the lovely bedside manner as always :P
Which teams are in title and promotion contention?
AbhishekLFC: If last season’s form continues for Silvestre and Stallaert, I think Bralirwa are likely the top contenders for the PCT title this season. In addition, Amaysim’s ready made ‘PT’ squad, with the addition of Bewley, should see them battling for top spot as well. Behind them, it is a little harder to choose between teams. All of Carlsberg, Binance, Xero, Zara - Iricar, Popo4Ever and Voyagin look like they have the tools to make a promotion push this season, on paper at least.
Croatia14:: Last year I really liked Assa Abloy (and busted with that), but I still trust their management quite a lot. They’re no title contenders though, as that usually should be relegated teams. However, there are not many, though I can see both in the right scenario. Xero if they work Areruya well, but more surely Amaysim with their experience and Haig (though I did not like the McCarthy-training instead of training Haig at all). Bralirwa have to be considered with Madrazo joining and losing almost nothing, though especially Silvestre has to repeat what he did last year. Finally I gotta say that I’d like if Carlsberg and Lierse learned from punching under their weight last year, and if they work their squads to perfection I can see them turning “under” into “above” and contend for promotion (Lierse) or even the title (Carlsberg).
jandal: I am going back and forth on making my narrative for the title being a complete two-horse race and being anybody’s game. Maybe that comes down to the two horses being a bit boring and uninspiring to nominate as my title winner :P It seems like the argument for any team comes with the caveat of either “their leaders need to be fully firing” or “if planned to perfection” which means that if one of a number of teams really gets both they could sneak in there. Perhaps we will see quite a flat promotion race, where the difference between the title and missing out on promotion entirely isn’t that large. However I still think it will be one of the two teams I will place top, with some others like Carlsberg and Philips I can see an argument for if both those conditions are met, even if I won’t have them third and fourth in most likely to promote, as I see the likes of Binance or Popo as having a higher floor.
knockout: Unlike in many of the past seasons, I don't see that one dominant title favourite. There is no Aker where I would have been absolutely shocked if they didn't finish on the podium last season. Amaysim probably will be in the fight with their leadership quartett while Bralirwa has the high ceiling of three potentially dominant leaders. If none of those two teams will see their leaders delivering to the highest level, the title race could be blown wide open and a plethora of teams might have a chance to pull a Leicester City upset. I don’t want to mention all of them here but I want to highlight Carlsberg once again who seem to have a very high floor and should surely be in the promotion fight.
What is the best training move done by a PCT team this off-season?
jandal: Rodrigues, Halvorsen, Aranburu, Dunbar, Areruya, Oomen, Padun, Benoot, Novak are the major ones to consider, I also like Aidan’s training (for a second I was going to specify the rider not the manager but then I remembered it doesn’t matter now) of MO to 75 which I think is a bit of a threshold potentially even though he already has PCM magic. In terms of proportional improvement in points maybe it is Dunbar, Aranburu or Rodrigues? Certainly as a team Lierse are the winners here with double duty. I feel like some of those nine are all at similar levels to each other, and it is hard to pick one as having the greatest impact. I’ll call my own shot here and say it’s Areruya though just because I don’t ever do that in this preview and I freaking love that guy.
Croatia14:: It’s between Areruya, Dunbar, Novak and Padun for me. As discussed, I do not like Aranburus training with his lack of acc and sta, similarly not a fan of the Benoot or Aidan-Training (latest should’ve been hill). Shoutouts go to Halvorsen, I rarely like a sprint training (am I a hypocrite?) but this one is smart. However, I usually enjoy a mountain training the most. This time it could be Dunbar though, as he now becomes the best TT-stage racer in the division (though I still think MO-training might’ve made as much sense). Areruya now is the obvious best trained guy, but long term I’d have liked MO-training more. With him becoming the best puncheur of the division though I can’t look past it as the best training, though Novak (failed chance with Oomen however) and Padun also will make them score loads of additional points too. So Areruya the best, but Dunbar the best possible.
knockout: Areruya and Dunbar are the only riders I can consider for this reply. For long-term selfish reasons, i really hoped Areruya would get mountain trained and i still want to see him going there in the future because he is one of very few potential GT winners without reasonable solid TT skills and I’d absolutely love to see a rider with that skill set win a GT at some point once again. The Dunbar training was absolutely massive for Indosats survival chances. After several strong TT heavy teams got promoted that first tier of TT guys looked kinda empty and training Dunbar to fill that hole in the division looks like a great move to me. Also the no-brainer Oomen training… ah nevermind.
AbhishekLFC: Any training that takes you to among the best in the world, while in PCT, will always be at the top of my training list. As such Areruya takes this one comfortably for me. I do like the Padun training, as you cannot ask for a better successor to the might Pluchkin than the young Ukrainian. Like knockout said though, if there’s one training that’s likely to impact a team’s present and future the most, it is Dunbar, who is once again expected to play a big role if his team is to survive this season.
jandal: Let’s just get it out of the way: Amaysim, uh… more like Amaysing! there I said it we can all move on and no need to make that joke again. Now, Jack Haig is obviously an amaysing #1 for them as one of the division’s top riders full stop, but there are huge question marks over McCarthy for me and though I think the Morton deal was good work by tsmoha I’m not sure keeping and then pumping 1,800,000 of training into a guy who could only come 60th in the rankings last year with 81HI is the move for a team that should be trying to win the title in style. Selling him on and going for a lesser leader (or Luke Plapp!) and 83MO for Haig or 80HI for Storer could have been a killer move in my opinion to make them top dogs of the division. If McCarthy can’t repay the huge faith the team have put in him, combined with smaller question marks over Bewley in Stallaert’s domain who could easily fall to sixth best cobbler (I still think he has it though) it could take the extra oomph out of what is at a baseline a very good promotion team - but I just feel that they could have grabbed the title with both hands or brought in a top talent and now they are “only” contenders, which is a very minor criticism and shows how good this team is that I am only criticising them for being one of the top few teams rather than the top one.
Croatia14:: As said, not a fan of the McCarthy-Training and agreeing with jandal. It ensures promotion, but so would’ve done a Haig training (for the long term PT plan). I’m not a big fan of the Storer proposal of jandal though. Stil, the real prize in that Morton-trade was Durbridge, not McCarthy, imo. He’s the top pure ITT guy of the division and has a decent squad around him to be great in wage/reward. They missed an opportunity to train Haig. But apart from that this is an outstanding, sure-fire promotion squad with no gaps (except for sprints but who needs them anyway!?).
knockout: Anyone wants to hear another opinion on why i would have prefered a Haig training plus the best possible 250k-300k free agent signing over McCarthy? Only difference is that I want to throw in 79TT for Haig instead of 83MO for the same fee. That said, limiting yourself to only oceanic riders makes it difficult to find proper value in FA, whether he could have gotten enough training cash to do either of them and I can see how getting McCarthy looked more intriguing for the team than the other options. And when I’m already in complete agreeing mode, I might as well say again that Durbridge looks set for a big season due to the lack of first tier time trialists in the division. All in all, I see four solid to good leaders and a solid enough support / depth core behind that the team has very good promotion chances.
AbhishekLFC: Relegation generally means a team will have a headstart in terms of the riders for the lower division. So, despite selling someone like Morton, they were able to bring in the likes of McCarthy and Durbridge, and train the former. While McCarthy has not been the most consistent historically, his training makes him a stronger pure puncher, and in a season where the division isn’t the strongest in that area, it looks like a good move. Despite getting Bewley in, sprints will not be their strong suit, but all other areas are very well covered and I think they’re a lock-in to make their way back to the PT at the end of the season.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
9
8
6
6
8
4
Croatia14
10
6
2
8
9
6
jandal7
9
7
1
8
9
2
knockout
8
6
2
7
8
3
Assa Abloy
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Yonathan Monsalve
67
80
75
71
78
79
76
55
64
72
68
64
71
33
Elie Gesbert
71
74
78
64
80
78
78
62
68
73
76
66
66
27
Yoann Paillot
70
70
71
80
75
74
68
56
63
64
56
71
80
31
Marcus Faglum Karlsson
71
79
73
73
78
75
76
56
60
68
66
74
79
28
Lionel Coutinho
72
63
65
52
75
74
77
55
79
80
55
64
52
30
Robbie Squire
68
77
77
65
70
70
76
65
61
71
76
65
65
32
Awet Gebremedhin
69
77
74
64
73
74
76
50
55
75
78
66
64
30
Lars Van der Haar
77
66
72
66
70
72
69
75
72
70
76
78
71
31
Jan-Andre Freuler
69
72
75
68
73
75
72
59
67
75
67
75
69
30
Mario Gonzalez Salas
70
57
60
80
74
76
67
60
61
54
78
61
80
30
Jacopo Mosca
71
72
75
63
73
75
68
60
65
75
80
71
68
29
Paolo Scarponi
67
76
74
65
70
71
73
55
61
69
69
82
65
33
Torkil Veyhe
80
66
68
65
66
71
69
51
56
78
80
71
69
28
Tony Gallopin
72
68
71
72
74
73
69
63
67
68
77
67
71
34
Hannes Bergstrom Frisk
66
73
68
71
71
71
74
61
55
65
67
66
71
27
Kim Magnusson
74
69
70
58
70
69
71
58
65
73
79
68
58
30
Linus Kvist
67
66
71
64
72
69
63
60
67
71
76
71
63
23
Staffan Arvidsson
70
58
70
74
72
74
73
58
63
70
74
70
75
32
Davur Magnussen
71
58
68
70
64
70
62
60
67
70
73
70
74
30
Erik Bergstrom Frisk
66
66
65
61
65
67
65
60
60
61
63
73
61
23
Talking Points
Croatia14: I overrated them in the past, they almost didn’t change and I still rate them highly. They’ll do good this year, but don’t sleep on their future. Gesbert is a great rider to train next year, on top Dainese and Konychev will come back. 2022 probably won’t be their year if the leaders can’t overperform (though I’d love to see them push for it), but the team looks perfectly set for a promotion push in 2023. Sell Monsalve, get a big-time leader and train Gesbert and with the depth of Paillot, Faglum, Dainese, Konychev, Gonzales Salas and such next year we could see a title contender in Assa Abloy.
jandal: I’ve never been as firmly hyping Assa Abloy as Croatia in previous previews but I too have been a little caught up in the SykkelFreak love and then a bit disappointed in the results. Still a very likeable team who make for an odd outlier in my narrative of the promotion race - we keep discussing that there’s a lot of teams who are probably somewhere in the top 10, maybe promoting, but I think Assa Abloy are definitely somewhere in the top 10, probably not promoting. Paillot is a good guy to bring in, him and Gonzalez Salas could do wonders with a couple of cheap 75-77 guys to form a premier TTT train but he should still be great. Monsalve is still great with those energy stats but has taken an undeniable step down, obviously I love Gesbert. The likes of Gebremedhin, Mosca, van der Haar, Freuler and Veyhe are the guys I love this team for and as Croatia said when it’s time for them to turn it on and promote soon, they are the guys who will bring it home and make this team a complete fan favourite again like the Delvaux years. This year the team is just missing a little of that BDE to promote, but still a great entertaining team ready for the talents to come home and provide that to take them to PT.
AbhishekLFC: I don’t think I had quite the same outlook on them last season, and I don’t see them improving this time either. I do agree with Croatia though that they seem set with a good base to challenge for promotion next season. The reason for my outlook this time is mainly because; one, they have targeted only three of the terrains, and left out the flats, barring Coutinho, and two, Monsalve was good last time, but the division is much stronger in terms of stage racers and he is unlikely to repeat his points haul. The depth with Faglum Karlsson and the TT riders will probably keep them in mid-table like last season. It should at least. They could be looking over their shoulders though if both Monsalve and Paillot under-perform, but that is unlikely.
knockout: I was one of those that already overrated Assa Abloy last year and I’m probably in the process of doing so once again. Looking at the squad picture there is no way this should be a promotion worthy squad. However, Paillot and Salas have two of the three highest TT stats in the division and Paillot especially has the backup stats that could set him up for a massive haul this season - even more so if riders such as Cattaneo might get planned more like traditional stage racers? I also rate their stage race duo and see scoring potential in the next 5-6 riders in the roster so I think this team will play a role inside the top 10 this year. And I’m almost scared to say so but maybe even higher than that?
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
6
5
2
8
2
Croatia14
8
4
3
2
9
2
jandal7
7
5
5
4
8
4
knockout
7
5
3
2
8
3
Binance
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Orluis Aular
68
81
72
70
76
75
77
52
63
69
67
71
70
26
Joao Rodrigues
65
80
73
74
73
75
77
55
61
72
70
68
74
28
Pedro Miguel Paulinho
67
75
80
64
70
72
74
56
68
75
70
62
64
32
Adam Blythe
75
53
65
67
74
69
75
81
75
71
71
71
70
33
Rui Oliveira
70
67
76
70
77
72
72
66
75
78
65
67
71
26
Dylan Kennett
75
58
65
69
73
76
78
62
79
78
67
68
78
28
Bert Van Lerberghe
74
60
66
66
75
74
74
77
75
73
68
65
68
30
Robert Bush
74
63
63
62
75
73
71
78
71
73
66
74
62
32
Jonathan Salinas
69
77
73
71
74
74
70
56
59
72
64
66
71
32
Fabian Lienhard
73
66
75
66
77
72
69
55
73
76
77
69
70
28
David Bartl
69
77
72
71
73
74
75
52
60
70
71
66
75
31
Gaspar Goncalves
69
73
75
56
71
70
67
56
68
74
62
66
62
27
Clement Venturini
75
63
68
65
74
74
79
72
75
77
63
73
69
29
Jakub Kaczmarek
72
68
75
75
74
75
72
69
63
69
68
67
76
29
Amaro Antunes
67
76
72
63
71
69
70
55
60
67
74
72
63
32
Csaba Palyi
73
66
71
73
72
73
69
71
72
74
71
69
72
32
Miguel Angel Benito
68
75
70
73
72
71
73
51
56
61
67
62
73
29
Roman Seigle
68
70
75
64
73
72
68
60
63
70
68
69
67
28
Sota Ikibe
63
74
73
70
70
70
72
60
62
65
73
68
70
30
Christophe Noppe
75
61
69
62
74
73
68
73
75
73
66
68
63
28
Luc Wirtgen
70
73
73
64
72
71
72
58
66
66
68
69
64
24
Tom Thill
74
66
73
74
70
73
70
61
62
66
77
68
74
32
Talking Points
Croatia14: I feel like this team looks like one to hype up: 4 riders with 80+ main stats, two of them young, all looking solid. A very deep team, no terrain gaps, it looks like an easy promotion bet. Not so fast with me, there is some way to go and it’s tricky. Neither one of Rodriguez, Aular and Paulinho is a top5 rider in their terrain, arguably no top10 rider. That could make the team look better than it is. The climbers lack hill stat, Paulinho lacks the energy stats. Blythe and the cobbles squad, which is very good, make or break the season. If Bush, van Lerberghe and the deeper guys elevate Blythe to a Top3 PCT cobbler and a good PTHC scorer, then the team will promote. But if they can’t overcome Blythes flaws on the decline (he couldn’t save GCN) and the planning for the climbers is not spot on, then this could well be a year of disappointment for Binance. Fintas needs to be on his A-game.
knockout: I don’t think that Blythe is the make-or-break guy as he is more of a known quantity despite his decline. You know he will be good in the flat cobbled classics but he won’t have enough great races to properly drag the team up by himself. To me, the uphill leaders are those that will decide how high the team finishes. Aular and Rodrigues are quite similar in their build and I’m not too convinced that they will deliver on a high enough level to get them into the promotion spots.
AbhishekLFC: I guess I have the completely opposite opinion and believe that they are solid enough everywhere to get promotion this time. While Aular and Rodrigues are similar, together they can cover the entire spectrum of mountain races in PCT and go for a Kraftwerk-like approach of picking up points everywhere. The cobbles team is very strong, and while Blythe may have declined further, he has much better support than last season which should work in his favour, at least where there are no hills to contend with. Kennett has shown he is always capable of doing better than his stats. Paulinho is not the greatest puncher out there but the division is weaker, so he should score better than previously this time. I think they have built smartly to cover most bases and should see them be in promotion contention.
jandal: Really a lot to like and feel good about Binance from my end. Not the Top 10 scorers or huge depth/niche scoring we normally love to praise in promotion-worthy teams but somewhere between the two looks good for them. One of the teams I feel better about of the massive ruckus that will be the battle for 3rd-5th. Really obviously solid top four, all with at minimum great if not division leading support and depth, with a sneakily nice 5th and 6th guy too in Oliveira, who hopefully gets to do his own thing a bit in planning, and Kennett, who I don’t like to talk about too much because he’s one of my three great renewals brainfarts but is really cool. One of only a couple of teams who are no filler and quality all the way down and if fintas is “on his game” as Croatia said, they are for me a frontrunner for promotion.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
7
6
8
3
5
Croatia14
8
5
3
9
2
6
jandal7
8
7
4
9
3
5
knockout
7
5
3
8
1
5
Bralirwa - Stevens
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Angel Madrazo
66
83
74
75
78
77
78
53
61
69
64
67
75
34
Joeri Stallaert
77
60
67
58
76
68
80
81
79
76
67
66
58
31
Fabio Silvestre
78
61
67
73
70
71
74
56
80
81
70
63
77
32
Valens Ndayisenga
66
78
75
65
69
68
73
52
63
73
72
69
65
28
Bonaventure Uwizeyimana
71
76
72
74
76
75
77
50
56
68
69
58
74
29
Mektel Eyob
68
76
76
66
74
69
73
55
62
66
72
73
66
29
Tesfom Okbamariam
73
66
65
59
70
73
67
76
72
68
65
78
59
31
Houcaine El Sabbahi
75
64
69
64
71
74
76
64
76
75
68
68
70
25
Souheil Khederi
67
74
76
61
68
67
71
59
58
73
67
71
59
31
Janvier Hadi
68
74
72
74
73
70
71
61
74
71
68
69
74
30
Natnael Tesfatsion
66
72
73
60
65
70
71
60
68
74
69
62
61
23
Moise Mugisha
67
69
73
62
64
73
70
60
63
71
78
64
61
25
Karl Patrick Lauk
74
65
62
66
68
69
63
67
72
72
66
64
66
25
Samuel Mugisha
74
64
69
72
69
72
70
63
62
68
73
64
66
25
Alex Mengoulas
70
65
68
69
70
68
65
68
65
73
72
67
69
25
Samuele Menicucci
69
62
69
61
71
71
71
70
61
67
69
69
63
25
Yacob Debesay
64
66
68
59
66
67
68
62
62
69
68
64
59
23
Aziz Melki
69
62
68
62
68
69
65
60
61
63
71
62
62
23
Marc Brustenga
68
60
64
58
60
70
64
60
67
70
61
71
58
23
Renus Uhiriwe
69
61
66
68
66
67
62
60
63
68
72
64
68
21
Ivan Cobo
61
66
66
60
63
65
63
58
62
64
61
62
59
22
Shemu Nsengiyumva
68
62
63
62
67
68
62
61
61
62
66
62
62
23
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: Think the move to bring in Madrazo in addition to Stallaert and Silvestre makes them an instant promotion favourite, and possibly top contender for the PCT title. Also great job by the manager to recover from the painful FA bidding war loss of Ghirmay to keep the wits about and go for a leader of the quality of Madrazo. Their climbing depth is solid while hills is the only area where they will not expect to be scoring. Unless the game suddenly starts hating on Silvestre and/or Stallaert, a minimum Top 5 placing is already a guarantee for them.
Croatia14: Ghirmay went so ridiculous that it was recovery time for Bralirwa midway through transfers, and they did so beautifully. It’s always risky to go in with no depth, but in PCT leaders are the ones that score you big time. And if they’re as good as Bralirwas are then you can’t lose really. Not sure if they have the ceiling in the riders to get the surprise points for the title, but they surely have the starpower that their floor is too high to fail on promotion.
knockout: I definitely see the potential of a division winner here. Basic kitchen maths of taking their scoring from last season and adding a typical #1 stage racer scoring to it, paints a convincing argument. However, I see worries that both Stallaert and Silvestre won’t be able to repeat their scoring from last season. Stallaert lost two of his three main support guys on the cobbles with Lampaert and Schoonbroodt gone without any sort of replacement while we have seen enough sprinters in the recent past who were not able to carry over outstanding performances into a new season. So while they are a title contender, I could see them dropping down to fifth or sixth too.
jandal: Easily the highest floor of any team in the division, Silvestre is the only guy with any asterisk of potential lower scoring than one would predict due to the potential sprinters have of just going from hero to zero as knockout said. But I made the mistake last year of doubting him in this preview and I don’t see any reason he shouldn’t be great again, even if it’s not quite to the same amazing extent as last year. However in terms of their ceiling I am not sure if it’s that much higher: where are the riders with asterisks saying they could also score way higher than we are predicting? Do they risk creating a separate stage races squad for Eyob, Ndayisenga and Uwizeyimana and just leave Madrazo by himself to see if they can maximise their own scoring because that looks like the only way for me. However that is about winning a title rather than promoting which they should be doing anyway so no need to risk it from the manager’s perspective surely. So a pretty known quantity who could win the title if nobody ends up better than them, but also surely fourth if three teams have that depth scoring or inspired planning that I doubt Bralirwa can do.
Croatia14: I hate Aranburus training and I told bbl so :P multiple times :P Happy to be proven wrong, but he’s just not a puncheur to me. Yes, there will be short-term benefits with him being modelled after Areruya and Beltran, and their teams making the hill races hard, but in the long run he’d be better as a climber for stage races without an ITT. If bbl can keep Aranburu away from Jensen, who with better hill, acc and sta rightfully lead the classics, then this could work out. But if not, then I’ll go back to bbl and tell him that he should've listened to me. :P
Apart from that piece I really like the team. For me the team underachieved from what should’ve been a promotion last year. I assume that bbl for this year prepared better for his leaders as they were known before transfers, adjusted his race choice and planning accordingly and thus managed his team into PT 2023.
knockout: Carlsberg might be the best example of building a team with a leader for every race in this year’s PCT. Between Guldhammer, Kämna, Trentin, AKA and Jensen, they have five leaders for five very different kinds of races and all of them are good for podiums on their best days. And that list still doesn't include Aranburu, Lander or King Arturs and a whole bunch of support/depth guys that look at least decent. The Aranburu training looks a hell lot like having too much cash and no good way to use it. Ideally that cash would be used to swap at least one of their leaders for a non-declining rider of a similar quality but if you want them to stick around for one more year for sentimental reasons, training Aranburu in either MO or Hi seemed like the way to go despite not really liking either option (Carrying over some of the cash for next season could have been an option too). They might not have the one top leader but it sure looks like a promotion contender to me.
AbhishekLFC: Think the starting letters of the Alphabet are going up this time! Think most of what needs to be said has been covered by the two answers above. I’m not too keen on that Aranburu training myself, and think that money could’ve been better used. Having said this, if he and Jensen can stay out of each other’s way, it will still mean a big points haul from the hills.
jandal: The first thing I said to you guys when we started was that the start of the alphabet is insanely stacked and nobody acknowledged my message, just want to say that since Abhi stole that from me :P Not sure what to make of Aranburu, he doesn’t scream puncheur to me either but we also have to remember how well Guldhammer suits MO/HI races too in terms of the short-term fit, I still agree with your takes on his training but I can see them making it work, speaking as someone who is planning a MO/HI and a HI/MO guy I think you can have them complement each other, especially as Carlsberg’s MO/HI guy has TT which mine does not. Even taking Aranburu out of the equation this is still a Top 10 squad for me at least, and even if he has a crappy poorly planned year he’d still add enough to make them a promotion contender. Yes Guldhammer and Trentin have lost a step but not a huge one, especially if Guldhammer can find some weaker startlists he’s still very scary. Between Lander and the stage racers the depth is really really there, and this is a high ceiling team - as said in the general questions, if we were talking “Leicester City” contenders this is one I’d throw out there. Just a fun team with lots of scorers and all the RDs covered, a dream to plan and not to put too much pressure on bbl but if he has done planning well and their riders perform to the level you’d expect, I don’t think there’s an excuse not to promote.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
8
8
8
6
6
Croatia14
8
7
8
7
3
5
jandal7
7
6
8
7
6
7
knockout
7
7
7
6
4
7
Cedevita
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Eduard Alexander Beltran
69
79
81
66
73
72
72
59
66
76
78
74
66
32
Tadej Pogacar
69
78
75
74
77
78
78
51
63
71
69
66
73
24
Lucas Eriksson
72
67
78
61
78
74
75
65
65
76
75
71
61
26
David Gaudu
73
71
78
66
78
75
71
57
68
70
69
69
66
26
Aleksandar Roman
67
77
75
64
71
73
74
61
63
76
74
78
58
26
Milos Borisavljevic
68
77
73
74
74
74
75
54
59
65
64
68
74
28
Geoffrey Bouchard
70
77
74
67
70
72
76
55
62
70
78
76
66
30
Michael Christodoulos
72
68
68
78
75
69
70
53
53
64
73
65
79
25
Hayden McCormick
70
66
76
65
74
71
70
53
73
73
67
59
65
28
Andres Camilo Ardila
65
76
75
67
67
68
70
62
62
71
71
65
67
23
Matic Groselj
78
58
66
77
74
78
71
67
73
72
69
70
79
26
Marko Pavlic
69
75
72
72
71
73
74
63
68
69
70
70
74
29
Izidor Penko
71
68
71
76
73
74
71
58
65
70
62
71
76
26
Gasper Katrasnik
81
61
63
69
72
76
69
63
63
72
81
73
69
27
Miha Poljanec
77
67
69
63
70
68
67
73
71
71
69
73
63
27
Aleksa Crncevic
67
76
70
73
70
70
75
64
61
69
67
75
72
27
Ivan Siric
76
63
70
65
75
78
65
74
75
71
60
75
65
24
Nur Aiman Zariff
68
58
60
60
70
65
76
60
78
78
60
67
70
25
Santiago Buitrago
66
73
71
65
68
72
72
60
65
76
71
66
65
23
Fred Wright
68
67
68
67
68
70
67
66
69
69
72
65
67
23
Kees Duyvesteyn
67
65
70
64
65
68
65
60
63
70
69
66
64
24
Aljaz Jarc
69
63
66
63
67
68
68
68
67
69
72
68
63
23
Aleks Bechkov
67
66
64
69
66
66
65
55
63
60
70
66
68
23
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: Beltran and Pogacar lead the team into what is now their fourth PCT campaign. Nothing new needs to be said about Beltran who well and truly got his mojo back last season and went on to win the individual rankings. His support is even better this time and should aid him well in his races. Pogacar is almost at the end of his development and should already be a regular Top 10 finisher in stage races, along with a top contender for the White Jersey in most of them. An interesting and versatile looking, regional and revamped stage racing unit promises to get them a lot of depth points, something which they perhaps lacked in those races in the past. It remains to be seen whether they can get back to the heights of the 8th place they achieved last season, but they should comfortably be in mid-table once again. They have built a great platform to build on this over the next couple of seasons for an eventual PT push.
Croatia14: I am a little worried. Beltran can make or break a season. His history so far is: Make - break - make - ???. With Areruya being trained he now has competition that fills his niche (though with Kwiatek a weaker one is gone), which could massively impact his “winning”. The calendar for him got nerfed once again, too. Lucky enough though, Cedevita has a very good young core to score deep. Pogacar, Ardila, Siric and Christodoulos should add in plenty of youth points as they are Top 3 PCT in what they’re doing, the depth behind the leaders is very good too. However, Cedevita only has one big name as a scorer, and if the depth doesn’t work and Beltran fails they could even be in trouble. If they work well though, they similarly could fly very high, even into PT. Cedevita surely is one of the biggest mysteries this year, though redordead is very good at planning in PCT which is a big factor in itself.
knockout: The Beltran support looks better than ever but I still expect a slight regression in his scoring due to the arrival of Areruya and slightly worse looking PTHC profiles for him. Behind him, the team seems to be in a bit of a transitional season waiting for Pogacar to fully arrive in his prime. With Pogacar, Borisavljevic and Roman, Cedevita has now a very cool local core for the mountains that can carry the team for the next four or five years. This depth as well as the Beltran scoring will probably push the team into the midtable region again. What I’m missing is that one rider that can deliver further points on other terrains. Kinda looks like the trust is on Katrasnik to deliver which is interesting but might not be good enough.
jandal: Even if Areruya is a complete Beltran-killer (which I doubt), as Croatia points out Kwiatkowski is gone and we saw how well he did rankings-wise even as a #2 in that niche rankings, plus I foresee some planning differences - I know we try not to take planning or fore-knowledge into account too much but all I’m saying is I don’t think Beltran will take too big a hit this year, but definitely a small one. I can’t really undersell how good I think Pogacar will be relative to his level, unfortunate for the conglomerate but he should be taking Eenkhoorn and Habtemichael to the cleaners in the U25 competitions, and just avoiding Conci if the TTs are too much. Then add his HI, TT and backups and he just looks like the best in that 77-78 third/fourth tier of stage racers I love talking about but still don’t have an eloquent way of describing :P I’m sure redordead knows what I’m talking about though, because he’s got a lovely collection of them to go with his strengthened hills depth as well. Great squads on both terrains and even a modest TTT train. Everything looks amazing here at Cedevita to improve on their season last year, we probably don’t need to do the rest of the squad overview. What? You want to know their plans for the other terrains? Ksshshsh kshsh rrr sorry I’m going through a tunnel kshshs rr ok byeeeeeee
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
10
5
1
6
7
Croatia14
5
9
1
1
4
3
jandal7
5
8
1
2
5
7
knockout
6
8
1
1
5
4
Crabbe-CC Chevigny
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Ingus Eislers
78
67
66
58
75
76
73
58
81
76
63
61
60
33
Theo Reinhardt
71
57
67
67
73
66
78
62
79
84
51
62
67
32
Richard Antonio Carapaz
69
80
71
72
71
76
77
50
56
65
71
61
72
29
Mustafa Carsi
70
51
55
67
66
69
73
52
80
82
52
68
71
30
Stefan Kung
73
70
73
77
74
72
73
72
63
71
73
78
78
29
Sergey Chernetskiy
70
71
79
66
80
69
70
52
63
71
76
64
66
32
Alexey Tsatevich
73
61
76
59
72
71
68
74
74
73
65
68
63
33
Emils Liepins
73
60
66
59
73
68
77
55
78
79
58
58
60
30
Carl Fredrik Hagen
68
74
75
65
74
72
71
65
71
72
74
72
64
31
Romain Bardet
66
77
74
59
72
70
71
51
52
75
67
71
59
32
Tim Ariesen
75
65
68
62
74
73
71
75
70
71
71
65
62
28
Andrea Manfredi
69
78
65
65
68
73
72
54
62
73
77
73
65
30
Victor Campenaerts
71
54
69
78
71
73
72
62
53
65
78
56
78
31
Jarrad Drizners
69
62
71
62
68
71
64
60
70
73
72
66
65
23
Louis Blouwe
69
66
72
66
68
70
69
61
67
70
71
67
67
23
Mark Donovan
71
71
69
65
69
73
67
62
63
69
69
69
67
23
Stan Van Tricht
70
65
67
61
70
71
67
65
71
73
67
64
62
23
Timo Kielich
68
60
66
58
65
71
66
64
68
72
63
69
62
23
Kamiel Bonneu
68
64
70
58
72
70
63
62
60
66
64
62
58
23
Fabio Van Den Bossche
68
66
68
63
63
69
69
68
62
67
69
68
61
22
Paul Daumont
66
62
66
64
67
67
62
62
69
70
70
65
65
23
Martins Pluto
67
61
67
61
66
67
67
61
69
67
65
65
60
24
Diogo Barbosa
64
68
62
60
64
64
65
58
58
66
59
59
59
22
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: From the team that were the darlings of the MG world with their plethora of cobbles riders, to one that struggled to sign riders in the off season and annoyed a lot of managers in the process, the level up to PCT has hit Crabbe hard! What they ended up with is Carapaz, who was a part of the relegated (and now defunct) Eurosport outfit last season, Chernetskiy, who is solid but not world-leading, a gaggle of sprinters all of whom need to stay out of each other’s way to be effective, and there isn’t enough flat RDs for that, and just two lower level cobbles riders, neither of whom are likely to make much of an impact near the front of races. They do have Kung and a solid unit in Campenaerts, but this looks like a long hard slog of a season coming up for them.
Croatia14: I love Laurens as a manager, he did something beautiful last year with limited resources, and I trust him to surprise with the squad again. But let’s be honest: It will be very tough. Crabbe did focus on a terrain, sprints, but that’s usually not the one where great depth leads you all the way. I’m sad they couldn’t get a cobbled leader as they wished, and I also don’t see a world where this pans out without a Top level sprinter like Ahlstrand. Eislers would’ve been great last year, but now he’s under that mighty 77 ACC-threshold and also lacks a leadout, as all of Reinhardt, Carsi and Liepins are too punchy for him (in a straight finish). Laurens has to get very creative to make it work somehow, especially with no elite leader to bag points with on any terrain and no squad to make the best out of Campenaerts and Küng. I don’t like the transfer season due to neither getting the big time leaders nor younger leaders that could get them back up from CT in case of relegation, but I’d enjoy Laurens proving me wrong here.
knockout: If there ever was a team that’s weaker than its parts, it’s this one. And this is mostly down to their sprint department: Holy moly, what a clusterfuck. Four sprinters that could all play an important role in most teams (eventhough i’m not sold on Carsi outside of short flat Criterium like races) but as much as we like to be the backseat manager knowing everything better, i’d have no clue how one would want to plan them. Imo, they don’t seem to fit together at all and I hope to get surprised by a plan that works. Then there is Kung who for some reason seems to be worth a 400k wage. Once again, I’m clueless how. And I'm not sold on the team fit. Personally, I think he fits best in a Generali like team where he adds power to a TTT team and can support a cobbles leader on top of results in certain hybrid races such as Arenberg but i don’t see him as a leader. He finds neither a TTT team nor a cobbled leader here so that wage would better be invested in a proper leader for sure. That leaves Carapaz as the non-sprinter pickup that I like and Chernetskiy as another semi-leader that I don't really rate but on a good wage. Loved their CT team but I'm mostly just glad that I don't have to plan this PCT team and I’m hoping that they find a solution that maximizes the value of their sprinters.
jandal: Have to agree with knockout that Kung is on too high a wage for this team - he’s such a cool rider who I am sad to criticise, and potentially even worth that in FA to a team with 400k to spare on a cool rider to fit into their plans. Kung does not fit and is not their saviour. It’s hard to critique their FA due to the clear time constraints they were under but the signings of both he and Carapaz are big Ls for me, both decent riders but not what was needed. It’s not impossible to see a world where this ends in survival because I believe the sprinters can be separated (focus on Eislers and Reinhardt, don’t give Carsi all his RDs if it doesn’t work) and there is enough potential to lift them up. However, escaping the drop looks unlikely. If they do, survival will be left to the last minute - but that’s something of a specialty for the manager.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
6
8
2
3
3
Croatia14
3
3
4
1
3
5
jandal7
4
3
7
3
6
3
knockout
4
3
8
1
2
4
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Odd Christian Eiking
71
69
80
65
78
74
71
54
68
76
75
69
67
28
Sondre Holst Enger
73
63
69
71
71
73
77
58
81
78
62
68
77
29
Timofey Kritskiy
71
80
71
76
72
70
69
54
64
61
64
58
75
35
Jaime Roson
67
78
76
61
67
70
77
53
54
74
73
66
58
29
Sindre Skjostad Lunke
69
78
72
73
76
74
78
58
60
64
68
69
76
29
David De la Cruz
68
77
74
73
70
74
73
55
59
71
64
72
73
33
Philip Lavery
69
71
76
64
75
71
68
63
67
77
77
62
64
32
Casper Pedersen
76
61
67
67
73
76
75
63
77
77
71
69
78
26
Gregory Daniel
75
67
72
77
75
74
72
55
56
68
73
69
76
28
Vegard Stake Laengen
69
75
72
75
75
74
73
59
61
66
70
74
76
33
Guillaume Martin
68
75
72
66
74
71
75
52
59
71
63
65
67
29
Adomaitis Rojus
73
59
67
67
65
72
74
57
77
76
60
64
73
24
Johan Fredrik Ziesler
69
70
76
62
74
70
67
52
69
65
59
71
64
32
Marcel Kittel
73
53
62
79
71
67
63
55
58
70
70
62
79
34
Stepan Kurianov
79
65
65
62
76
74
76
71
75
70
72
70
64
26
Kristoffer Skjerping
67
70
77
62
71
67
68
52
58
65
62
73
62
29
Thymen Arensman
71
73
70
70
68
73
69
67
63
66
72
69
70
23
Jonas Iversby Hvideberg
74
64
69
63
70
71
65
71
61
64
77
64
65
23
Dimitrios Christakos
68
73
68
68
67
71
69
58
61
67
71
70
71
23
Iver Johan Knotten
70
62
62
76
70
69
70
58
59
60
66
66
72
24
Dinmukhammed Ulysbayev
68
71
69
68
68
68
68
60
62
64
67
63
67
24
Eirik Lunder
70
62
65
58
76
66
66
58
70
75
75
70
63
23
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: Despite not having a division leading leader in any terrain, Gjensidige do have most of the bases covered, leaving out only cobbles as the terrain they will not be concentrating on. Their leaders remind us of our own really from last season, but Eiking and Enger should be much more solid performers this time, given how the PCT has shaped up. They will need consistency, and a bit of luck, but I can see them sticking around this season and then be in a prime position to push on next year and beyond.
Croatia14: PCT is the best place to not diversify, so leaving out cobbles is a smart choice if you can’t build a weapon that also does well in PTHC. In contrast to Crabbe I like the dual approach: Kritskiy and de la Cruz to bag the points necessary to fight against relegation, while Enger adds to Eiking and Roson being a great trio no matter which division the team is in for 3 more years. Solid transfer season, solid chance to stay in the division. Hillis needs to nail his planning game though, in which he has improved massively lately.
knockout: One of the better looking promoted teams. Four of the five main specialities are covered nicely even if none is covered superb. Enger is one of the better sprinters in the division and he has a nice leadout with especially Kurianov in the squad as a great third man. Eiking is at least solid as a leader on the hills but the most intriguing part to me is the quartett of stage racers: Kristskiy, Lunke, De la Cruz and Roson are four stage racers / climbers with different strengths that should be fun to plan. All of them are not ‘sure things' as they have weaknesses that caused them to disappoint in the past - especially Lunke’s disaster 2021 season of only 87 points in PCT needs to be mentioned. I also want to highlight the TTT team as that’s good enough to set especially Kritskiy up for success in mountainous TTT races.
jandal: I’m definitely warming up to Gjensidige a little bit - they definitely look like more of a squad than some of the other promoting efforts, which look like (and I acknowledge it was a tough year to promote) they grabbed some bargain bin trash for the leaders and called it a day. Gjensidige on the other hand have depth, many scoring options and even a TTT squad, with 14/22 of their riders being new to the team, which is a great effort. I still miss the firepower to get them to avoid the relegation dogfight, but with their depth and scorers it feels like their destiny is in their own hands through planning and they should have enough about them to make it out alive.
jandal: I’m not sure if it’s crazy or my bias to Rowe and Meurisse speaking, but I’m feeling really high on HelloFresh - Lampre. I think their sprint unit can be one of the PCT’s best ever if utilised well (and with good AI treatment) with a huge traditional sprinter in Kennaugh and a flatbeasty Rowe finally free to be the sole leader for flat classics now he’s untangled from co-leadership at Xero, plus Vingerling to do his vingerthing and of course the amazing Mark Dzamastagic. I like Daniel a lot as well as team legend well-known PCM-overachiever Van Keirsbulck as a great second leader or lieutenant. It’s hard to know how Meurisse can do - 62nd in the standings last time out in PCT seems close to a peak for him but even close to that is a huge boon for the team. I even like the climbing unit of Elissonde, Potocki, De Vos and Gaspar who with green energy stats should bring a few depth points. It’s missing another top leader to push much higher than the lower top half, but that would be a great outing for a promoting team.
Croatia14: Promoted to stay. WJ took smart choices to leave out TT races on what was the most heated market. Banking on sprints and cobbles is always tough, but they have the team to do it. I’m not as set on Rowe and Dzamastagic working as well as meant if Kennaugh is also in the flat classics they ride, but if they can keep the units away all of them should be happy. However, as all excel in flat classics I’m still in doubt. A deep cobbles squad looks good too, that’s a good terrain for depth. On climbs and hills they need to attack in the stage races to be safe early, but even if it doesn’t work out they could, more should have what it takes to stay in the division. With the top8 riders in their 30s that will be much needed for either a promotion push or a gradual rebuild in PCT next season.
knockout: I really like the HelloFresh approach. Kennaugh and Daniel are two very solid leaders with good support and behind them they have a bunch of riders with a lot of upside. Rowe, Meurisse, Elissonde and Dzamastagic might not be typical leaders but all of them have punched above their weight in the past. I don’t see them entirely safe but they have enough quality that they can hope to not get sucked too deep into the relegation fight.
AbhishekLFC: HelloFresh are probably the hardest team to predict for me this season. They have multiple likeable riders, some of whom I have chased in the past. I also agree somewhat with what the others have said so far but I get a nagging feeling if the likeable riders do not perform ‘likably’, I can see them having quite a low floor. Going by just the rider reputations, they should finally stop yo-yoing and stick around in the PCT for a change. Daniel is probably the only rider I will bank on to say he will do very well, simply because the cobbles isn’t the strongest in the PCT this time. He is usually quite solid anyway. Kennuagh usually does well, but a decline and a rearrangement of stats is always a lottery in PCM. Meurisse and Elissonde are really fun riders to have, but can they really keep repeating their heroics from the recent past year after year. Guess we’ll find out…
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
5
5
8
7
0
6
Croatia14
2
2
9
9
0
4
jandal7
3
4
10
9
2
3
knockout
3
3
9
7
0
4
Indosat Ooredoo
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Bruno Borges
70
70
80
61
75
73
70
54
71
81
75
65
60
31
Eddie Dunbar
69
77
76
79
74
77
78
58
60
68
62
71
77
26
Leigh Howard
75
62
67
67
74
69
77
62
81
78
63
64
67
33
Dylan Page
75
57
66
60
72
72
75
66
78
79
62
55
59
29
Teten Rohendi
70
75
75
70
73
75
74
55
62
73
71
70
71
26
Rafael Silva
68
65
75
66
75
70
56
63
74
79
66
64
61
32
Michael Kolar
65
77
75
61
70
71
71
50
54
66
72
60
61
30
Muhammad Imam Arifin
66
76
74
66
67
71
73
52
58
72
82
63
66
27
Bambang Suryadi
71
56
62
64
72
68
76
58
79
76
61
60
64
32
Abdul Gani
75
61
67
65
76
73
73
68
76
77
60
66
68
30
Robert Gesink
66
76
74
73
68
70
70
59
54
58
65
59
73
36
Andreas Odie Purnama Setiawa
68
70
75
74
76
72
71
57
62
70
76
66
74
26
Dealton Nur Arif Prayogo
73
63
68
76
73
75
70
59
64
64
74
64
78
30
Jakub Novak
68
75
71
74
72
70
70
58
62
62
62
59
74
34
Felix Gall
67
75
74
63
69
70
70
58
61
70
68
64
62
24
Justin Wolf
70
60
63
77
71
72
70
55
56
62
58
59
75
30
Muhammad Yudha
68
68
72
65
72
71
69
55
64
71
70
67
66
23
Einer Augusto Rubio
65
71
70
62
73
71
70
60
60
70
70
63
62
24
Firdaus Ahmad
67
68
68
68
66
69
69
54
62
69
76
73
68
22
Sean Flynn
67
60
67
57
69
67
65
60
66
69
63
62
60
22
Victor Alejandro Ocampo
67
58
63
72
70
68
71
54
58
63
56
65
72
23
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: Indosat bet big on Dunbar last season, and that eventually paid, with the Irishman saving them from relegation with an inspired performance in Bayern Rundfahrt. They have bet big on him once again, training him to be stronger in TTs, while bringing in Howard and Borges. Those three will be their leaders for the season, which is a solid trio, but there isn’t much to be inspired about behind them! They will probably once again be looking at a battle against relegation this season, and will need good planning to steer clear of the same.
Croatia14: I like the team a lot more than last season. Borges is a brilliant rider in PCT and will score big as soon as the hilly classic he rides works “as intended” Dunbar is more of a wildcard, a better version of Izagirre when he was on full strength. He can be a top 5 scorer in the division if worked well, and with Novak and Gesink they signed the right domestiques to work him better than last year (not enough to be perfect, but still good). Training does what’s necessary to make the team one that can go far if planned very, very well.
knockout: Last season, the team narrowly avoided relegation to my surprise. They lost Warchol and Howard declined a bit while the only huge “addition” is the training on Dunbar. That all sounds like they should be massive relegation favourites? Well, I think they are in danger but two things speak in their favor: 1. The Dunbar training could be immensely valuable in this division as stated above already. 2. There are more obviously relegation-threatened teams this year than last year. I would not be surprised if it gets as close as last season again.
jandal: As we all said in the general section, Dunbar is a bona fide big boy now with that training making him such a unique and valuable rider who hopefully can put them on his back even more than last year. Planning is everything, some would say you can never waste a RD with someone like him, others would say that it’s very hard not to waste his RDs as being just good in a regular ass stage race is less than what he should be doing with his skillset - and what he has to be doing for these guys to survive. Howard, Borges and solid support for Dunbar have them ahead of the pack when it comes to surviving I think but it could still run tight.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
4
8
7
0
6
5
Croatia14
3
5
6
0
3
6
jandal7
2
6
6
0
8
7
knockout
3
6
6
0
6
6
Kraftwerk Man Machine
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Nikias Arndt
71
79
76
56
77
76
72
63
71
75
61
64
56
31
Rick Zabel
74
60
69
55
74
70
79
65
81
79
66
52
55
29
Suranga Ranaweera
67
80
73
75
75
75
74
52
58
65
57
69
73
27
David Boily
67
76
78
70
72
72
69
56
68
74
69
79
61
32
Marco Haller
72
61
65
56
72
71
76
58
80
79
66
64
71
31
Pello Bilbao
71
67
79
65
77
71
71
51
71
75
67
66
61
32
Michel Koch
66
77
73
68
69
74
74
51
67
76
57
61
70
31
Arvin Moazemi
67
73
78
69
72
72
75
62
65
73
65
63
67
32
Dominik Nerz
69
79
71
72
73
70
72
55
63
66
64
59
72
33
Tobias Ludvigsson
68
76
72
76
75
72
73
56
62
71
65
72
75
31
Jasper De Buyst
73
61
70
68
73
75
75
75
76
76
70
70
68
29
Josip Rumac
71
72
75
64
72
70
68
55
74
76
66
69
66
28
Eugert Zhupa
75
56
67
65
78
74
67
77
74
68
67
59
65
32
Alex Ariya Destribois
69
76
75
68
68
69
74
52
61
75
77
78
67
31
Sasu Helme
69
75
74
69
71
72
74
62
60
76
73
67
69
26
Gennadiy Tatarinov
69
75
74
63
71
71
68
57
65
73
76
63
63
31
Florian Scheit
66
72
76
58
72
71
69
50
64
71
77
66
58
31
Jan Dieteren
67
70
77
58
75
70
68
51
63
66
80
73
58
29
Thanakhan Chaiyasombat
68
74
70
68
69
72
72
52
66
71
70
69
68
23
Max Walsleben
72
59
67
67
72
68
61
74
68
70
70
72
70
32
Antti-Jussi Juntunen
67
61
69
61
65
68
63
61
68
69
66
61
60
23
Marco Mathis
69
60
65
73
65
72
61
62
68
70
64
60
71
28
Ethan Vernon
68
60
64
70
68
71
63
66
71
68
63
64
71
22
Talking Points
Croatia14: Ranaweera is the perfect successor in the Kraftwerk line of bunching up secondary leaders for a great unit that performs every year. Their bid for team classifications every year is a cool niche in PCT, and their ToA will be amazing once more (Haller can’t lose there anyway) even if the field will be STACKED from what we’ve heard. Ranaweera also has the perfect age to be a long-term successor of Nerz, the German core of Arndt (one of my favourites) and Zabel is well done too. They will be a PCT team for long, the most surefire prediction every year (and I won’t make the mistake to bet against them anytime again in PCT).
jandal: Yep, this is Kraftwerk alright. And I mean that in the best way, a really likeable and entertaining to follow team due to the amount of different scoring they do, plus going from mid-table team to the best in the division when the Tour of America rolls around. As Croatia hinted at, rumours have it that their recent huge success and dominance in America may not be fully repeatable and so if they have a lot of eggs in that basket it may be a small knock to their scoring but they should be fine still. In other hands this team would be in danger perhaps of falling lower than they should perhaps even into the relegation fight due to bad planning but by now we know that the manager knows exactly what he is doing with these guys. I think “they will be PCT again next year” sums up my thoughts on Kraftwerk pretty perfectly.. In fact that sounds like a fun prediction format, ranking teams by how likely they are to be PCT in 2022!
AbhishekLFC: Think I say this in a lot of places, and must repeat again - Kraftwerk are definitely the team I aim to emulate the most in my own team building approach. Think we got there to a large extent this time. Apologies for talking about myself here, but as they say, imitation is the greatest form of flattery!
Their team building remains on point, as has already been highlighted in the previous answers. However, I do see Kraftwerk having a poorer season than last time. A lot of teams, us included, seem to have picked up on the ToA strategy. A dent there is a huge one from what Kraftwerk plans for. This does not mean I see them in relegation trouble, or even near those spots, but a mid table finish is perhaps their spot this time.
knockout: Kraftwerk looks stronger than ever. Their most notable off-season losses are Kittel, Willwohl or Costagli who all were no big factor in last year’s campaign. Plus Nerz got slightly weaker. On the other hand, they signed a couple of valuable additions that improve their squad: Ranaweera obviously the most notable one but also Ludvisson and Destribois add further variability to their climbing squad and De Buyst has the ability to be an asset in an area of weakness for them. Sure, certain predictors might be eyeing to steal Kraftwerk’s Tour of America success but having added another legit stage race leader, any potential loss there might be covered by gains elsewhere. Croatia’s prediction of seeing them in PCT again in 2023 is a solid one but to make it surefire you’d have to bet on them not relegating.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
6
7
4
3
3
Croatia14
7
3
7
2
1
4
jandal7
6
7
6
4
3
1
knockout
7
5
6
2
1
4
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Sam Oomen
71
81
75
74
78
77
78
56
65
69
72
68
77
27
Domen Novak
68
80
77
66
74
76
77
61
65
76
73
75
64
27
Niccolo Bonifazio
79
50
66
55
68
75
71
56
80
80
58
72
70
29
Laurens De Plus
72
76
79
64
74
73
71
57
61
72
68
66
65
27
Patrick Gamper
77
62
66
76
77
77
69
78
63
71
72
72
76
25
Manuel Senni
71
77
73
74
76
79
76
59
66
72
66
73
74
30
Szymon Sajnok
74
61
65
78
70
76
71
63
73
72
62
70
79
25
Jakub Mareczko
74
53
61
57
71
73
79
50
78
77
61
66
75
28
Alessandro Fedeli
67
73
75
62
72
70
66
57
64
72
68
65
64
26
Giovanni Aleotti
72
69
73
70
74
73
70
62
65
73
68
69
69
23
Louis Verhelst
71
56
73
65
72
69
68
74
62
68
67
71
65
32
Maxim Van Gils
68
73
71
60
69
73
71
60
68
72
67
68
60
23
Jenthe Biermans
77
55
61
64
71
74
65
71
66
67
77
69
66
27
Aaron Verwilst
74
65
66
66
69
71
65
71
65
66
73
64
66
25
Dilmurdjon Siddikov
73
63
65
75
74
74
71
68
65
66
78
72
75
25
Wout Van Aert
75
63
66
70
72
73
72
68
64
68
69
75
79
28
Viktor Potocki
68
68
69
71
71
72
71
52
65
68
68
71
71
23
Alessandro Covi
65
70
71
61
69
69
65
60
64
64
62
65
62
24
Sasha Weemaes
71
60
61
72
72
69
65
55
71
71
67
63
72
24
Max Kroonen
66
58
62
58
63
66
63
61
63
64
70
60
58
22
Talking Points
Croatia14: Domen F***ing Novak got trained, that’s a W. Though you certainly would’ve expected Oomen to be the one, Novak is a great choice and the training massively improves the points tally. They’ll be great at the Giro with also Bonifazio, if the game doesn’t continue to think he is a rouleur. Lierse will be a fun squad at the Giro.
Did the team get better though? Last year they seemed to have what it takes to promote, but in the end they were far off. This year they lost Vanbilsen and…still could be better!? Maybe, with the promotion/relegation ratio, de Plus rising up the rankings as a puncheur (tried hard to sign him this year) and Gamper being by far the best u25 cobbler and a good TTer I can see them doing very well.
knockout: Domen Novak got trained, that’s a L. Don’t get me wrong, Novak is a cool rider who probably got slightly better but what do you really get through that training? He’s now probably a top 15 climber instead of a top 20 to 25 climber and he is now ahead of Arndt and closer to Bennett or Berhane in the MO/Hi hybrid races though obviously there are still Padun, Areruya, Beltran, Guldhammer and whoever of the better climbers wants to go to those too. The alternative was Oomen who is probably now somewhere between #5 and #15 in the stage race division but could have been the clear #3 in the division behind Madrazo and Haig (not counting Cattaneo because his TT skills open up very different race planning options) with very interesting long term training options if the team happens to promote to PT at any point. Seeing how early the team seemed to be done with transfers, it seemed obvious to me that the Oomen training check was signed and waiting to be used.
Now, why am i ranting so much about that decision? Well, there is not much else happening at the team. Vanbilsen was banned from the team for commiting the crime of turning 32 and was replaced by a new 22 year old that is the only rider not in the team in 2021. The team still looks like it should get into the promotion fight but if history prevails, it might once again not for whatever reason. If only they had a top three stage racer to properly push for promotion…
jandal: Domen Novak got trained, that’s… nice. If we were talking about the path to promotion it’s potentially true that either training Oomen or just keeping Vanbilsen, who looks like a really strong contender in this year’s division, would probably have been better options points-wise. But it’s so hard for me not to like that Novak training, partly being excited because I know how cool it is for Croatia, but mostly because he’s just such a cool rider type! Maybe I should just remember that I have two MO/HI guys of my own and then it’s easier to hate on…
As much as I like Kenny V, I do also see the value of Gamper as a leader, and will always be a Bonifazio truther hoping he gets that good AI treatment to deliver on that sexy FL-RES combo. De Plus I can take or leave but is on great wage value. Senni is going to do his Senni thing and be a quality guy in that 77-78MO tier with his energy stats. The depth isn’t huge behind there, and perhaps that suits this version of Oomen and Novak ok where you would have wanted better support for 82MO Oomen. Lierse definitely in the upper echelon of the 3rd-10th tier we seem to be discussing as the promotion contenders. How about this for a bet: one of them and Popo will finally promote this year.
AbhishekLFC: Love Novak and love the training for him as a standalone event. Does it make sense for the team? Don’t think so. I guess that’s what happens when you just want to sell old guys and expect to get back big money or ‘interesting’ youngsters. There was scope to turn over the team some more and invest in the obvious Oomen training. Well, maybe they have a plan for that going ahead and we’ll be eating our words this season already or in the near future. Like De Plus and Gamper as sub-top leaders on their terrains, and they should do well. Their depth on the climbs is not the greatest but their leaders should do fine on their own. They should be a Top 10 team for sure I think, but it seems like a missed opportunity for a sureshot direct promotion.
AbhishekLFC: Cattaneo to replace Henao is definitely an upgrade, while Rohan Dennis is a solid signing in any division. They also added Brown to that to make sure they have a solid stage racing unit. Vesely had a bad season last time around and will need to improve to help them move up the table. Their TT unit is on point as always and should bring in lots of points. Kalaba and Hodeg have already shown that they are capable sprinters, so they should bring in some much needed depth points. Unless something untoward happens, they should be looking at an improvement from last season.
Croatia14: Yum Yum Yum Yum Yum Yum Yum. Minions are going for another 1-year supply of PCT bananas with Cattaneo and Dennis, but those are damn delicious bananas. Fair Trade and well grown too, looking at that price tag. But premium quality. Gotta have a taste of banana wonderland PT if everything goes well, but in any case they’ll have to find new suppliers next year too, which is a trademark of this gritty group.
jandal: Mmm m yummy wummy banana wana jandal hungy. Cattaneo scrumptious too many sprint banana. ban a na yummy must eat so hungry mmm banana.
knockout: The MG version of Cattaneo is one of those riders that I’ve developed an almost irrational level of hate for no particular reason except hating that archetype of rider. So it kinda pains me to predict a huge season for him. I’m not too enthusiastic about Rohan Dennis as his sidekick. He seems to share too much of a similar profile to him. TT heavy stage races might be one of the better races to stack two leaders but I’d still argue that covering a different terrain or adding a second stage race leader would have been better for the team - even more so when both decline after the season. The third big-ish signing of the team is … yep another one for the TT heavy stage races. Well, TT heavy stage races might be one of the better races to stack three stronger riders but I’d still argue that covering a different terrain or adding a second stage leader would have been better for the team - at least he doesn’t decline. How do I go from there to saying that losing Zepuntke is no big loss without sounding like a hypocrite? Not sure. Anyway, I predict another midtable season for them.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
2
7
3
9
5
Croatia14
6
1
7
1
7
6
jandal7
8
1
7
3
9
3
knockout
7
1
6
2
8
6
Philips - Force India
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Ki Ho Choi
71
81
74
75
77
76
79
63
59
68
68
71
74
31
Tiesj Benoot
71
75
80
63
75
74
74
76
69
71
62
66
62
28
Pierre Paolo Penasa
70
80
74
70
75
72
77
50
57
76
68
64
70
31
Tom Van Asbroeck
75
53
71
66
75
72
79
74
80
78
74
68
74
32
Pascal Eenkhoorn
71
78
73
69
76
77
80
65
64
71
69
67
75
25
Cristian Raileanu
66
77
77
63
74
73
76
56
59
70
69
67
65
29
Saya Kuroeda
74
53
63
67
72
73
75
77
74
78
63
64
71
27
Simone Velasco
73
72
76
60
75
71
68
64
69
76
75
69
62
27
Riccardo Minali
73
52
58
57
70
74
79
59
79
79
62
74
70
27
Shiki Kuroeda
72
63
70
52
76
77
82
76
76
73
67
71
63
30
Jan Xandri
68
76
73
73
68
74
72
60
60
69
75
74
71
28
William Barta
69
76
72
73
71
74
70
54
72
67
65
56
75
26
Tom Dumoulin
71
59
68
78
75
76
70
52
65
67
66
60
78
32
Dan McLay
73
56
67
55
74
72
79
72
77
76
62
66
55
30
Clement Champoussin
67
73
73
60
74
73
73
57
59
72
68
72
61
24
Joonas Henttala
66
74
68
73
73
72
72
50
60
67
63
71
73
31
Gijs Leemreize
65
73
71
64
68
71
70
60
62
68
71
66
64
23
Yannick Stoltz
77
59
65
63
71
74
70
62
59
69
82
70
77
34
Mick Van Dijke
68
67
70
69
71
71
68
67
70
68
70
71
70
22
Oscar Samuel Galvan Ramirez
71
69
67
68
67
69
67
50
64
66
69
69
69
22
Talking Points
jandal: So I guess it’s time to explain my reasons for the Philips hype train. Sure, I do want Philips to do well of course, but I do genuinely really like this squad. The bases are covered wonderfully well and although planning and a bit of luck will be huge in best utilising the climbers, TVA and even Benoot, that’s just the way it is and I believe in previewing these teams as squads with potential to be planned well rather than umming and ahing about who is planning-reliant. I really like the Choi move and Benoot is obviously such a cool rider with potential to be a killer in a few races and a very good second string puncheur elsewhere. My subliminal messaging about RES stats clearly worked as this team looks very solid, and that results in a domestique core that looks very good for depth scoring and leader supporting with the likes of Velasco and Barta. I like the four mid 70s COB riders with different strengths. I like that almost every RD will be covered with a quality leader. I like that Raileanu is there. This is surely a really fun team to manage Abhi and it will be a fun one to follow, and I think there is the potential for a really huge bang if every potential over-achiever does so, but at the very least I think this is finally the time Philips live up to the top half predictions they always get, and go beyond to challenge for promotion.
Croatia14: I don’t buy a ticket yet. The team does look good, I admit, but they also lost plenty of quality. Benoot and Choi are good, but the AI is not as beneficial to Benoot as it was in former games. Choi also suffers from riders like Haig being better versions of him, though I still rate him. However: The team slimmed down and replaced quantity with quality, big talents got better, depth is a real strength. I am not fully convinced by the jack of all trades, master of none approach (in PCT), but I agree that here it looks pretty damn good to rise up a step.
knockout: Jandal’s words of “every potential over-achiever” somehow resonates with me because i kinda see it the other way around. On paper, this looks like it could even be a potential promotion squad but too many riders are “potential under-achiever”. Benoot is the most obvious one, a rider with 80HI, 76CB, 75MO should be great but i’m certainly not in love with his backup stats and think that he has the potential to be a bust. I always see the Van Asbroeck type of rider as a bit too streaky. Could be quite good but also could be quite invisible. And then there are the Kuroeda bros, Raileanu, Eenkhorn, Velasco and third tier stage racers like Xandri or Barta who all look really interesting on paper but many of them have not really performed all too good last season and/or could easily be “look better than they will perform”. That said, this team will finally have nothing to do with relegation and i like the moves it did to transition away from the Kelderman era.
AbhishekLFC: I hope I read more of ‘over-performance’ this season than the usual ‘under-performance’ which has been a cornerstone of our efforts over the past few seasons.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
8
6
4
2
6
Croatia14
9
3
4
3
1
7
jandal7
9
7
6
5
4
7
knockout
8
5
5
4
1
6
Project: Africa
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Natnael Berhane
68
81
75
66
77
74
73
52
62
68
67
71
65
32
Aidan Van Niekerk
69
75
78
65
72
75
76
66
63
74
82
71
65
25
Elias Afewerki
73
63
64
63
77
70
81
69
79
80
68
70
71
30
Amanuel Gebrezgabihier
68
70
79
66
74
74
72
53
67
69
77
66
64
28
Tsgabu Gebremaryam Grmay
67
77
74
65
71
73
76
58
61
71
58
74
65
31
Clenne Morvan Moulingui
74
53
71
52
71
71
53
78
65
68
64
71
52
27
Samuel Ssabagwanya
70
72
75
56
80
75
77
67
60
77
74
72
53
28
Olivier Lecourt De Billot
75
58
69
64
74
73
65
75
61
74
81
64
68
29
Costa Seibeb
71
75
76
66
70
69
71
59
61
73
80
59
66
30
Issiaka Cisse
74
53
63
67
73
67
78
63
78
77
73
59
65
31
Reinhardt Janse van Rensburg
69
68
67
77
69
69
67
62
59
74
66
63
77
33
Youcef Reguigui
72
76
71
73
72
69
71
50
63
69
68
62
75
32
Metkel Kiflay
74
63
68
76
73
70
68
63
66
69
64
72
77
31
Kent Main
68
73
70
73
71
74
74
58
63
69
73
71
73
26
Albert Kireva
75
68
69
75
73
76
72
69
70
73
71
71
76
32
Sirak Tesfom
74
62
65
76
69
73
67
53
63
67
71
64
75
28
Eddie Van Heerden
68
71
73
66
66
69
69
60
63
73
67
66
63
28
Louis Visser
71
63
70
68
72
72
68
65
72
72
75
68
67
24
Faycal Hamza
74
52
63
76
74
73
70
50
56
68
69
63
79
30
Frank Awuku
67
65
68
66
68
71
70
68
70
71
67
64
64
25
Clement Kusi
68
64
70
71
66
70
71
61
64
68
71
67
71
26
Didier Munyaneza
66
62
71
60
70
69
65
58
56
71
75
68
59
26
Ricardo Broxham
68
66
67
68
66
66
65
60
67
67
67
65
68
22
Jean Claude Nzafashwanayo
69
65
66
60
68
70
67
60
62
54
68
67
60
22
Talking Points
Croatia14: Very sorry to say it, but from my point of view this team is not built like a PCT team should be built. But that’s okay, cause it’s based on the African identity and role play. Aidan training Aidan is great, though in the wrong stat. He could be a CT monster though. Berhane is a decent climber and I like the support, so that should be the best source of points. I’d give Aidan the least chances of survival, but they’ll be the easiest to cheer for and one of the coolest teams in the whole peloton with that all-african approach probably leading towards an attacking spirit.
knockout: Outside of how everyone (me included) loved to see their signature trade of this off-season, I mostly want to make this backhanded compliment: Project: Africa looks like they set themselves up ideally to be CT champion 2023. I’m sure there somehow is a chance that Berhane and Van Niekerk perform strong enough to put the team's survival within the realms of possibility with breakaway luck and underperformance of other teams but I struggle to see it. The team is basically a strong CT team with a few additional talents attached to it. Using the entirety of the salary cap surely could have improved the team by a lot but I don't think I have ever seen a PCT team that could be put into a competitive CT team inside the salary cap with fewer off-season moves.
AbhishekLFC: Ouch! Those are some harsh words already, and unfortunately it will not get much better from me either! First the bright spots, Have always rated Berhane and think he will do well again, having done so in PT already. Then the feel good moment of the season with Aidan calling Aidan into his own team, and Aidan should be a great asset for Aidan for years to come. That’s where it ends I guess. Kudos on getting an all African setup but the quality to survive in the PCT is lacking, and it will take a mini-miracle for them to be able to survive.
jandal: Really sorry to say but I’m not going to be able to be much more positive than my fellow predictors here. Aidan van Niekerk is such a cool and likeable (even if he makes it hard by constantly beating Xero guys) rider with a certain PCM magic even without the very cool fact that (and I’m not sure if you guys know this because the others all failed to mention it) he now rides for manager-Aidan’s team, so really hope he pulls out some big results. “Berhane is only 15-20th in the division on paper in stage races and nobody else in the team is near his level” is the best way to sum it up. Beyond that… yes there’s better depth than some of the promoting teams and I don’t necessarily have them last - I wouldn’t rule it out though.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
7
5
5
6
2
Croatia14
4
4
2
1
2
2
jandal7
6
7
5
3
6
2
knockout
5
5
4
3
3
1
Red Bull Zalgiris
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Kristoffer Halvorsen
76
58
65
63
74
71
80
70
81
80
70
61
68
26
Rafael Reis
70
81
73
76
78
76
78
56
50
64
66
68
76
30
Xuban Errazkin
71
74
78
70
76
75
76
64
63
73
69
67
70
26
Jose Fernandes
71
75
70
77
78
77
76
53
62
67
60
68
77
27
Tomohiro Hayakawa
73
63
65
50
75
68
76
57
79
79
75
73
50
30
Andris Smirnovs
68
68
77
56
74
69
67
68
72
78
78
70
56
32
Justas Beniusis
71
69
60
79
71
73
72
56
57
67
68
68
78
25
Felix Grossschartner
67
74
77
67
72
73
72
50
62
72
71
68
69
29
Sebastian Schönberger
66
72
76
59
73
74
71
57
65
71
75
74
59
28
Murilo Affonso
69
76
72
73
72
70
74
56
54
68
74
53
73
31
Ziga Groselj
69
63
75
72
72
73
68
53
72
72
72
63
72
29
Kashyapa Siriwardena
67
74
73
72
71
73
72
56
58
68
74
65
72
30
Mihkel Räim
74
62
67
61
73
72
75
71
76
75
76
68
74
29
Venantas Lasinis
68
75
71
72
71
71
72
59
61
68
67
69
72
25
Remco Evenepoel
74
69
72
72
74
76
60
63
64
70
80
66
72
22
Simone Consonni
72
58
69
64
71
76
76
66
75
75
65
62
65
28
Oscar Cabanas
68
71
71
74
73
70
68
56
61
66
70
67
75
31
Wen Hao Li
74
52
60
77
71
66
69
50
74
73
63
63
77
33
Giorgi Tediashvili
71
66
68
65
71
74
71
71
67
70
69
65
65
23
Mantas Januskevicius
70
68
70
69
73
74
70
55
68
70
73
68
68
23
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: At one point in transfers, they looked to be really struggling. Then they turned that around and ended up with a competitive team with a trained Halvorsen as the piece de resistance. Reis is a solid climber and should do fine in the PCT. Errazkin is not the greatest puncher but they have good depth in the hills to compensate for that. An expensive Beniusis isn’t the best TT rider in the division by a long shot, but their TTT setup is on point. I don’t expect them to make a promotion push this season, but they are very well set up for the future and should be aiming to make a promotion push in a couple of seasons’ time.
Croatia14: I praised quasdas enough to bloat his massive ego, so I better start off criticizing: Giving up Powless for Errazkin and Fernandes wasn’t a move I would’ve done. Instead of trading Powless and training Halvorsen, I think the money would’ve been better invested in buying Errazkin straight up and investing in another leader that is not Beniusis on insane wage. That would’ve made the team a surefire promotion, now they’re just in a good place to get there probably next year, possibly this one. The age structure is brilliant now, the team is well set with both Star Power and depth. A rare A, even if an A-, from my side, with the Asterisk of missing out on an almost surefire promotion (though apparently by choice of building 1 more year in PCT and turning everything on next year).
knockout: I’m not sure how to evaluate the transfer season of RBZ this year. On the one hand, i absolutely want to second Croatia’s first three sentences: I would have liked Powless a lot more than the trade package they got and Beniusis is probably the most irrational free agency wage of the off-season - even ahead of the Girmay madness (and I kinda hope that the exodus of top tier TT guys and possible race luck might not make this stupid move look slightly better in hindsight). On the other hand, they once again made some low wage bargains like they always do and they came away with one of the big three talents on a reasonable wage. I see a team that’s set up nicely for the future at the risk of only being a bottom half team this year.
jandal: I’m never sure how earnest I want to be when covering Zalgiris - do I want to overrate them or underrate them for the memes, or just say what I really think which is: I’m not sure? quadsas really must admire me so much as a manager, squad builder and person because the RES depth here is on point. I really love the squad building that has happened here both age and skills-wise and if the opportunity presents itself next off-season I can see one or two big moves turning them into title winners with a sustainable PT base to build on and everyone pretending they always loved quadsas and his management. Well… maybe not that far, but you see my point. Right here right now? I’m not sure, as said I love the base, Halvorsen could turn it on huge but I’m not sure I see where the actual other big points are coming from to match Croatia’s love here. Could be a top 10 push or higher, more likely could be in the respectable mud of 12-16th with the other usual suspects.
jandal: Sauber have five very likeable punchy cobblers, headed up by Tom David, who is never as good as he really should be with that statline but is a very cool second-tier guy in the classics. However, as cool that unit looks, it’s not going to bring more than a few hundred points, and so the burden of leading another miracle survival charge is once again headed up by the depth of the climbing and hills squads. Tejay van Garderen has declined and looks like a fringe top 10 puncheur now and may not be able to play the hero for them once again, and I can tell you right now I am making personally sure there is no fairytale GC win in some forgotten MO-HI stage race for Killian Frankiny this year, though I’m sure he will still do just fine. Marc Hirschi is super cool and U25 eligible (and for another year too), while Pomoshnikov and Slagter are known quantities (the latter a slightly declined one) who will be decent but not amazing. Then there is solid depth including a couple of guys who can actually TT which will be a nice change, it will come down to good planning, luck and depth scoring for these guys and as cool as it would be to see a team like this survive I’m not sure I can see it - though I have them above a few teams as I’m writing so
knockout: In a very weird way this team reminds me a bit of my new team: Ignoring time trials and sprints / flat classic completely while having some versatile second tier guy on the cobbles with big hopes that Mo/Hi hybrids are performing well. However, that's where the similarities end. Tejay and Slagter are past their prime, Hirschi not ready yet and Frankiny or Pomoshnikov might be a lot of things, but they are surely no PCT leaders. I see a realistic chance that they won’t have a 400 points scorer and saying that about a team that ignores so many terrains (including tt heavy mountainous/hilly stage races) raises a lot of red flags about their odds of staying up this year. Don’t get me wrong, the team has enough potential scorers in the uphill races to deliver well enough but they need stellar race selection, planning and the necessary amount of luck to survive if they don’t want to figure out how to fit Hirschi into the CT salary cap.
Croatia14: If it’s reminding you of your team then they should be “just” fine. On a more serious note though, I also get these Kraftwerk-ish vibes. Mountain is probably one of the few terrains where a depth approach works well, and if you want to avoid terrains this is the best way of doing so. However, such an approach often needs a winner, and the team has none. Slagter will benefit by the probably more mountain heavy approach to hilly classics and so will the rest of the team that does this so well, but then van Garderen seems like a misfit. He’s the guy that would’ve been great with the EBH-approach to CT, and the money could have (or should have!?) been invested into a rider that does well on other races. I know one that was very cheap and on great wage: Ranawe… oh wait…I think the team missed a chance to set themselves very well for a PT push in 2023 building around Frankiny, Hirschi, the guy that shouldn’t be named and 2 proper new captains, now I’m more sceptical. Sammy needs to do some great planning to convince me that his approach was a beneficial one to Saubers success this year.
AbhishekLFC: Having narrowly survived last season, this was a chance for Sauber to push on and establish themselves as a PCT team. They went the other way unfortunately, probably selling the wrong leader in Ranaweera, instead of Van Garderen and not really covering that loss with any great leader signing. Sure, they got David, who I really loved last season, but he is not the one to help them stay afloat in the division. Instead, that will come down to the mountain and the hills squads, and despite having depth for days there, they look to be heading towards a season of struggle! The depth in the other areas run out after a few minutes, with cobbles probably lasting a few hours to help keep the fight going a bit longer. It will take an inspired Van Garderen and multiple overperforming sub-top leaders to have a shot at a repeat of last season’s escape act.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
5
8
1
7
2
3
Croatia14
5
6
0
4
1
7
jandal7
5
7
0
5
1
4
knockout
4
5
0
4
1
3
Strava
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Romain Sicard
71
80
76
74
77
76
79
55
62
67
75
63
74
34
Lucas Manuel Gaday
71
67
75
65
75
72
71
78
71
73
61
64
68
29
Fabio Felline
68
66
77
64
75
73
71
57
74
78
68
71
64
32
Muhamad Zawawi Azman
69
76
77
63
69
72
73
50
65
75
76
69
64
28
Pawel Poljanski
66
77
77
67
70
70
76
56
61
71
73
66
67
32
Nacer Bouhanni
74
55
63
55
74
69
74
59
80
77
64
58
55
32
Wesley Kreder
73
64
75
63
75
71
77
66
77
78
71
67
63
32
Daniele Dall'Oste
70
76
76
67
71
74
75
56
58
71
73
71
67
31
Logan Owen
73
65
69
62
73
71
72
78
64
71
68
74
64
27
Kristaps Budenieks
69
75
75
63
70
75
72
70
69
74
75
72
61
27
Kristian Sbaragli
76
56
66
62
76
70
79
72
77
78
58
61
62
32
Thanawut Sanikwathi
72
58
66
65
70
67
75
72
78
78
66
72
68
29
Sonny Colbrelli
74
56
61
60
74
72
76
59
79
75
55
70
66
32
Pawel Bernas
76
61
75
66
75
71
68
62
70
73
82
71
65
32
Peeter Tarvis
76
70
74
61
74
73
66
68
64
72
69
59
61
29
Jesper Hansen
72
64
75
64
76
69
74
64
66
75
69
71
69
32
Joanis Albert Nielsen
75
54
67
66
71
75
72
74
73
71
64
67
70
29
William Maesen
64
75
72
61
71
73
78
51
50
60
70
66
60
31
Bert-Jan Lindeman
72
54
63
59
70
67
63
75
73
74
63
60
59
33
Jens Debusschere
72
57
65
58
72
71
70
70
70
66
68
67
63
33
Talking Points
knockout: Strava has assembled a lot of cool riders once again. Whether it’s Gaday, Azman, Dall’Oste or Budenieks, many of them look like typical old-school Strava guys who are always good for the odd overperformance. However, only Sicard is a proper PCT leader and since i don’t trust their sprint armada to perform good enough that could put them into trouble. Despite a lot of interesting moves, I think they might get drawn into the relegation fight.
Croatia14: No doubts about that relegation fight, but Shonak has shown that he is one of the better managers in terms of planning. I would’ve loved to see them buy Vanbilsen as he could’ve been a great fit, but they got some good young riders on their payroll now. Sicard certainly is a one-year rental, and while I understand critics on the approach I also like that they didn’t go all in already by getting only old riders to somehow survive, but building a culture again. They had very few tradable assets and an awful FA market on offer on top of starting late. But even if they relegate into CT, they can build around great wage/reward riders like Azman, Owen and Budenieks (all smart transfers with regards to their age) and a much better looking Gaday in terms of wage to reward. They built a base for whatever division, and that is some smart business.
AbhishekLFC: A bit of nostalgia here, as the first race I reported back in the 2017 season was Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, and Boeckmans launched a late attack to catch out the stronger cobbles riders and sprinters, in a reduced bunch sprint to take a surprise win. No surprises for guessing who he rode for as I write this here. Since then, Strava have disbanded, been out of the MG for two seasons, come back in 2020, spent two seasons in CT, and are now back to the PCT.
After that MG history recap, it’s time to get down to them this time. I really like two signings that they have made - Sicard and Gaday. Both should over-perform their stats, despite the former having declined twice now. I also think that they have a solid mountain and cobbles support team behind their leaders. I somehow do not like the Owen signing, which on its own would’ve been great, but having signed Gaday, was overkill. I also think at least one of Poljanski, Dall’Oste and Budenieks was unnecessary, in addition to Sbaragli, Kreder, Sanikwathi and Colbrelli all being there in a team with Bouhanni leading the sprints. One of those climbers and two of those sprinters, in addition to not signing Owen, could definitely have been replaced with another stronger leader for the hills or TT, in which case I would’ve been sure that they would survive this season. I guess all this is easier said in hindsight and maybe the reason they ended up with this team structure was because they were not able to get their intended targets. Right now, I put them right on the edge of relegation places, and any small slip-ups will definitely push them back down.
jandal: I think Abhi’s take of them being “on the edge” of the relegation line is spot on - not in the bottom three (yeah so I wrote that thing about tiers a week ago and now I don’t think it’s true, sue me) and with a fighting chance at survival - but an uphill battle. Luckily uphill is what this team love and with Sicard where they’ll hope a lot of their points to reach that line can come from. However, as knockout said, what makes us all love this team is those riders like Gaday, Budenieks, Kreder or Bernas who look like they have the potential to catch a bit of that Strava magic the whole Man-Game used to go crazy about. Those guys unleashing the magic on top of Sicard and the good looking depth is what will make the difference for them and hopefully deliver another year in the PCT.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
6
6
7
1
3
Croatia14
5
2
3
4
0
7
jandal7
6
3
3
6
1
5
knockout
6
2
4
5
0
6
Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Mark Padun
67
82
77
66
72
74
76
53
60
75
76
70
65
26
Aleksandr Pluchkin
70
81
71
75
72
72
70
66
63
68
63
62
75
35
Oleksandr Prevar
72
71
80
62
77
70
68
53
67
73
63
66
62
32
Aliaksandr Riabushenko
76
63
68
62
71
74
76
66
79
77
66
68
67
27
Simon Spilak
65
78
75
70
70
71
68
63
60
64
64
61
70
36
Petr Rikunov
69
77
73
74
73
71
74
51
67
66
63
74
76
25
Roman Lutsyshyn
70
50
54
64
69
73
74
55
79
80
58
57
70
28
Zouzou Andriafenomananiaina
65
76
72
74
74
74
76
56
52
71
76
64
70
28
Stanislaw Aniolkowski
74
62
65
56
74
73
78
62
78
77
57
64
59
25
Heiko Redecker
73
57
72
62
74
67
79
52
77
78
60
60
63
32
Nipuna Shira Manamalage
81
51
59
52
71
64
56
77
57
56
64
61
57
30
Oleksandr Golovash
72
60
60
78
72
69
66
55
73
76
61
65
78
31
Roman Gladysh
71
69
75
64
71
71
72
61
70
74
73
69
66
27
Anatoliy Budyak
68
74
78
68
72
67
73
56
57
68
63
74
68
27
Adrian Nitu
68
76
74
65
73
70
68
53
52
70
62
62
65
32
Nicolae Tanovitchii
72
68
76
60
75
72
71
57
62
71
79
68
60
29
Andrii Bratashcuk
69
71
77
58
75
70
69
52
62
67
65
79
58
30
Volodymyr Dzhus
65
76
70
64
74
74
68
55
58
75
70
63
64
29
Artem Topchanyuk
67
76
72
64
70
70
68
57
59
68
72
62
64
33
Peter Varga
77
61
66
61
76
73
69
67
65
80
83
74
63
29
Andriy Orlov
69
58
76
67
74
68
69
55
63
70
74
64
67
30
Martin Papanov
67
72
70
69
70
70
72
54
65
66
67
66
73
23
Matic Zumer
68
68
67
56
66
72
61
56
65
75
71
78
57
25
Pangiotis Christapopoulos
70
60
70
74
69
68
63
62
62
68
73
66
73
27
Oleksandr Shevchenko
69
60
67
65
72
73
67
61
61
68
75
73
64
23
Yaroslav Parashchak
69
64
69
57
68
67
68
58
59
67
68
66
57
22
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: At 35 years of age, Pluchkin is not the top dog anymore, but he is still around and more than capable of handling himself. Padun is the new kid on the block and will look to take over the reign from the team’s long time standard bearer. Padun is as good a replacement as they come! Prevar always has the occasional win in him but is never quite consistent to be a top puncher in the division. The rest of the team is solid, with no out and out top rider, but I do expect them to pick points wherever they go. Can’t say that for certain for cobbles, but everywhere else should be safe.
knockout: The perfect marriage between Pluchkin and Popo4Ever is nearing its end but it's not over yet: Pluchkin still is fairly strong and will continue to contribute to the team. Prevar, Spilak and especially Padun are also good uphill leaders that will lead the team into another top half finish but without that dominant Pluchkin from the past, i don’t see them finally achieving promotion.
Croatia14: It’s not Pluchkins team anymore, it’s Paduns team. The Torch has been passed, and the new regional star looks terrific. Two mountain leaders works very well in PT, they’ll be able to completely separate the schedules smartly. Prever is on great wage/reward, so is Budyak (WTF is that wage!?). I think with a weaker division they could, or better should promote, but you never know with fjhoekie. I think it could be their year though. And a hot take: I already see Sagan replacing Pluchkin for next year…
jandal: Who knows anymore - I can’t imagine what being a fan of this team must be like, seeing the same conversation about if this is the year while the team remains at a standstill as Padun’s improvement fill in the gaps of Pluchkin’s decline, as the team gets predicted just outside the direct promotion spots and then finishes slightly too far outside. However if you offered most teams the chance to be always in the top 10 of the division, while having plenty of wins to cheer and one of the best talents around coming to the fore, they’d surely take it. However we know the manager (as much as he denies it) and fans surely want a step up and once again… yeah they definitely could do it?. Aside from the two changing mountain stats there’s really not much to say - they have a pretty similar “base strength” so to speak, it’s just about the fact that last year that strength couldn’t get them promoted - is the top third of the table weaker by enough that they can? I think maybe so, but much like the fans of the team I’ve been burned before - I’ll only believe it when they’re on the startline in Tasmania in 2023. If you recognise this answer there’s a good reason for it - if you won’t change the roster I won’t change my answer!
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
10
8
7
4
5
2
Croatia14
10
5
3
1
1
2
jandal7
10
5
4
1
3
2
knockout
10
5
4
1
2
2
Trans Looney Tunes
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Kenneth Vanbilsen
78
50
69
63
80
74
75
80
72
71
72
61
63
32
Lilian Calmejane
74
71
77
67
73
76
74
60
72
76
78
70
70
30
Sven Erik Bystrom
72
68
79
61
75
72
67
56
68
76
78
73
61
30
Zico Waeytens
70
71
80
65
72
70
68
67
66
73
76
75
65
31
Marc Christian Garby
65
79
70
68
71
76
75
50
52
70
72
63
68
31
Rok Korosec
71
68
75
68
74
71
71
62
75
78
70
69
71
29
Gyung Gu Jang
67
76
76
62
72
70
70
54
66
74
73
56
62
32
Rüdiger Selig
70
52
64
64
71
66
73
62
78
79
63
58
64
33
Roman Senyenov
70
62
77
63
68
73
65
60
68
73
72
73
63
29
Iliyan Kolev
75
52
62
60
73
71
65
77
62
67
71
64
66
28
Luka Pibernik
72
65
76
60
76
68
68
61
68
74
72
67
62
29
Pieter Vanspeybrouck
72
62
67
58
72
65
63
78
63
63
70
75
58
35
Sergio Luis Henao Montoya
66
78
67
67
69
73
68
50
54
67
66
58
67
35
Pit Schlechter
74
59
72
67
71
67
68
75
61
66
72
67
67
32
Tomoyuki Iino
67
76
72
67
71
70
71
53
58
65
71
64
67
33
Benjamin Dyball
70
75
72
74
73
69
70
53
60
70
68
63
72
33
Harm Vanhoucke
70
75
71
70
69
71
74
63
67
68
72
70
71
25
Nikita Novikov
68
76
71
69
72
69
69
55
61
68
68
66
69
33
Tesfay Abraha
72
56
64
61
70
71
66
75
74
72
67
68
61
32
Ivan Centrone
74
62
71
59
72
67
70
76
53
58
74
75
62
27
Michael Cuming
70
74
74
72
74
70
71
58
64
69
74
63
72
32
Matteo Sobrero
69
69
71
73
67
72
72
58
64
69
66
64
71
25
Owain Doull
72
59
65
73
71
70
68
71
73
73
63
65
75
29
Jan Ghyselinck
72
59
66
75
72
74
68
59
62
65
72
59
75
34
Talking Points
jandal: A three-pronged approach from Trans relying on big mountain, hill and cobbles depth but for me the first two are not quite good enough domestiques in service of definitely not good enough leaders. If there’s a list of ten non-Xero riders I’ve professed my love for the most Calmejane is definitely on there, and I really hope he is separated from Bystrom and Waeytens, who, as much as I clown on the latter, aren’t really that awful but neither are they approaching great, which is what is needed. Garby is fine but is much more well-suited as a secondary leader, either of a barebones mountains squad or doing his own thing while that train is built around someone of at least a Shikai/Reis level. Shoutout to Rok Korosec for being something unique (and again hopefully not just a Waeytens support rider) and also to the whole team for being useful in some way which I think is only true of maybe two other teams.
The cobbles unit is definitely the best they have but with some weak RES stats and no major FL, CB or SP secondary stats in the domestiques, certified PCT icon Kenneth Vanbilsen who II do like a lot doesn’t have as great a squad as it looks from the main stats. Considering that Danny Summerhill at the peak of his powers has failed to save a similar looking team from relegation, I’m unfortunately doubtful Vanbilsen can outdo him.
Croatia14: The good thing about having good cobblers but no sprinters is that they often do decent as attackers in the mandatory sprint classic. That makes Vanbilsen a great buy for the limited finances. The support is also good enough to be competitive. However, the other pillar of success for TLT, puncheurs, is only good at 2nd thought: My first thought is that neither likes Waeytens or Bystrom too much due to a lack of versatility and feels like Calmejane is hindered by them. The second thought however has seen teams like ISA or Tinkoff doing surprisingly well by staggering one-dimensional lower level riders, which lead to guys like Chernetskiy Top10ing WT classics and Vakoc even winning one. On third thought though, I do not see that approach working this well in PCT, where the classics seem less “pre-determined” to be hills only like the Ardennes week f.e. does. That is why I would’ve liked this line-up in PT (or CT) on the hills more than in the hybrid-friendly PCT. Thus I see the team struggle with no climber or TT guy of note (depth here rarely works without a goal rider or punchy attacking stats), so I would expect a tough season for the team. A little bit of looneyness and a daring way of planning and racing could save them however.
knockout: I see a solid chance that Zico Waeytens will be the team’s top scorer this season. When I say that, I want to summon Ollfardh to make an expert prediction whether a team with Zico Waeytens as top scorer has any chance to survive. Talking about Ollfardh and bad experiences, Vanbilsen had a terrible season last year. His climbing abilities worry me a lot but he has superb support and could be a good scorer for flat and cobbled classics. If he continues on last year’s level with so much help that would be a worrying sign for all cobblers without a tiny bit of climbing strength. Outside of these two leaders, the best thing to highlight is the depth on the hills. Despite liking both Bystrom and even more so Calmejane, I’m not convinced they will perform strong enough to overcome the lack of quality elsewhere to the level that is necessary to survive when Garby is your climbing “leader” and Selig the sole sprinter in the squad.
AbhishekLFC: I love their cobbles team. But beyond that it isn’t an ideal setup for me. I think Vanbilsen should do better this season, stress on should, because with PCM you never know. The backup for him should also ensure very good depth scoring for them in cobbles. Garby is not a great leader on the mountains and Henao Montoya is a shell of his former self having declined for three seasons now. The hills squad needs to be handled very well to get the best out of them. Neither Bystrom nor Calmejane will be best utilized as a domestique to Waeytens and I’m not sure there are enough hills racedays to best utilize all of them. It will be tough for them to survive, even if Vanbilsen regains his past glories and I see them going down again.
jandal: I want to say that I really do respect the stones it takes to have almost an entire PCT roster of unmaxed guys in your first year team, but it seems like total overkill. Then I saw that the wage they take up would be enough for literally any rider in the PCT except Kinoshita and I really wasn’t sure. It feels like such a contradiction and yet to perfectly make sense that you would supplement trying to build this cool young regional core (which is way too many riders when you think of it like that) that is supported by an impressively old ass group of leaders: 32, 32, 32 and 34, with key domestiques 31, 32, 31, 32 and 34. I see the base but young leaders would really make this team everyone’s darling - so I hope they come next year. Down to the focus on the Americas it screams Azteca to me, right down to Ahlstrand + Quintana being a similar level to Summerhill + Eastman. I am not sleeping on Kump, especially with Trillini in support, or Chaves to provide some joy in the hybrids, but Volcanica remain a hard nut to crack. I think they will be fine for sure - Ahlstrand is way too good with decent enough other guys to make sure of that. For the team in the big picture I’ll reserve judgement until I see their moves next year, but for now the brilliant Ahlstrand signing and other good enough work means that they have bought at least a year to build the project up more which I love to see.
knockout: Ahlstrand might be the biggest steal of free agency. The big question about Volcanica is: Is there a chance that Ahlstrand has a mediocre season? If he delivers to the level you would expect, then Quintana, Chaves and Kump should be good enough to secure survival. If he only performs to the level of last year’s Ewan, then Volcanica is in danger because the huge number of mediocre talents will severely limit team support and depth scoring in all areas.
Croatia14: In many ways Volcanica did something in between Podium Ambition last year and my squad in my PCT season. Ahlstrand was the biggest steal, surely. If DarkWolf keeps all the leaders separate (especially Kump and Ahlstrand!) I can even see the team in direct promotion. Teams like Bralirwa and Los Pollos have shown how it’s done. You can also fall down with such an approach, as f.e. Quintana experienced last season or a certain Tryg squad banking on Skujins and Wellens giving up their depth has shown. Extremely high ceiling, but also extremely low floor especially with Ahlstrand. It does require very careful planning. Not sure if DarkWolf has the experience to do so. I respectfully project a tough season, but I can also imagine another Cinderella story from Latin America.
AbhishekLFC: Strong mountain leader with solid depth, arguably the best pure sprinter in the division, two great sub-top leaders for the hills and sprints, and yet I do not feel confident enough to say that they will have a great season. Along with HelloFresh, Volcanica are the other team I find very hard to predict this season. Quintana did not perform to expectations last season and I don’t find much reason to believe that he will improve, given the strength of the division in his area this time. Ahlstrand, conversely, was very good in PT, but we’ve seen with Ewan how having the best sprint stats isn’t necessarily a measure of sure success in the PCT. Chaves and Kump should be solid though and both have able support if they need it. I guess their season success will come down to how the top two go, and whether they find favour with the game engine or not. I can see their fortunes swinging right from promotion contenders to relegation battlers, which seems incredible, but that’s just the feeling I’m getting.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
9
7
10
1
1
0
Croatia14
5
4
10
1
0
4
jandal7
7
4
10
2
2
7
knockout
6
3
10
1
0
2
Voyagin - Bird
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Tomohiro Kinoshita
73
72
83
66
80
77
73
59
68
77
73
71
66
31
Chen Shikai
72
81
71
76
74
76
78
55
57
67
59
69
76
30
Jiankun Liu
74
63
67
63
76
69
80
65
80
80
64
68
67
27
Kyeng Ho Min
68
79
76
66
75
77
70
63
62
66
69
69
66
26
Antoine Duchesne
70
67
77
68
73
72
67
56
69
79
71
51
68
31
Jingbiao Zhao
74
58
65
66
68
74
74
58
77
81
56
71
78
27
Xianjing Lyu
66
73
76
63
73
74
72
50
63
73
71
74
65
24
Rei Onodera
74
66
69
78
75
74
71
61
65
68
64
68
75
27
Yamato Shirota
68
75
75
58
69
68
73
55
63
78
73
58
58
28
Yudai Arashiro
81
60
64
62
71
67
73
68
70
75
78
68
66
27
Tushantha Rajapakshage
72
64
70
76
71
72
68
61
50
69
75
54
78
30
Edoardo Zardini
68
75
76
66
68
64
64
67
71
66
71
73
71
33
King Lok Cheung
75
59
67
77
72
74
69
57
63
66
64
72
77
31
Leszek Plucinski
71
73
72
71
70
70
71
59
69
70
69
69
70
32
Jiri Polnicky
70
64
71
62
72
69
66
74
62
68
67
74
68
33
Atsushi Oka
71
65
67
72
70
70
69
64
75
75
67
64
77
27
Mingrun Chen
68
73
70
62
70
74
74
56
65
69
58
63
62
26
Masaki Yamamoto
69
70
71
72
64
66
67
57
67
71
70
67
70
26
Shoi Matsuda
72
65
69
72
67
73
63
60
69
70
60
63
74
23
Miori Kawasaki
69
67
67
65
65
71
64
60
61
67
73
63
69
23
Richard Huera
67
66
67
61
68
68
65
61
64
66
68
65
62
23
Talking Points
jandal: I’m not sure if Voyagin, more than even a Lierse or a Popo, knew that the PCT would look weaker than last year, and so just stayed with everything in place, but I think it will work for them. I was surprised last year by them ending up in the relegation fight but this year I have them where they should be, in the top 10 and competing for promotion spots. As I think we all seem to agree those spots look very open for at least 10 teams and I’m not sure Voyagin are one of the top contenders, but a team with Kinoshita has star power like few others and then just needs to get things right. Shikai and Liu are two riders who are constantly better than I think they should be, and they’ll need to be maximising themselves because behind them scoring looks really thin. Min is a decent climber but no longer has U25 scoring to help him, and given his tendency towards the MO/HI races to avoid Shikai I would guess his ACC is a liability if he wanted to consider overachieving. There’s some likeable domestiques after that but I really don’t consider any of them sneaky scorers, maybe Duchesne in his Kinoshita-free days if he finds some breakaways, but the rest of them are pure doms. So Kinoshita needs to be dominating the hills like the old days, including making that +2HI count when Areruya and Beltran are around which I think he will. The problem is then that I just don’t buy Shikai and Liu as guys who will score enough to get them over the line given the lack of depth here. But surely a sizable rankings improvement by virtue of the division changing around them.
knockout: Voyagin is another of those teams that rarely seem to change their look. Their top trio from last season returns and the hope of Kinoshita and Shikai stopping their underperformance from last season is probably the biggest factor in the hope for a better season while Liu will look to repeat his fairly good season. The biggest change is replacing underperfing Lunke with Min who performed nicely last season and looks like an upgrade. All in all, this screams midtable squad to me with the chance to go slightly higher if Kinoshita turns into a dominant force on the hills again.
Croatia14: Very good takes I can’t add a lot towards it from an analytical point of view. However: Kinoshita needs Beltran and Areruya to neutralize each other to become better, otherwise it’ll go the opposite direction as the team’s ceiling is bound to Kinoshitas ceiling. Probably a more solid than flashy team in 2022, both racing- and rankings wise. Min was a first good step to transition the team towards 2023 though.
AbhishekLFC: With the puncher exodus from the division, Kinoshita should do much better for them, which will prevent a repeat of last season. Min is a great signing to complement Shikai, who should be solid as always. There’s also no reason why Liu cannot repeat his 2021 season. Their TTT team is strong as well, which bodes well for stage races. All in all, I can see them pushing for a Top 10 spot, despite not doing too much in transfers, even if Kinoshita just about reaches his potential. Anything better from the leaders, and they can be an outside shot at promotion.
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
9
8
0
6
1
Croatia14
5
9
4
0
3
3
jandal7
7
9
7
1
6
3
knockout
6
9
4
0
3
2
Xero Racing
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Joseph Areruya
72
79
81
65
76
78
79
53
68
76
75
60
65
26
George Bennett
67
81
76
65
75
74
79
58
65
73
55
63
65
31
Hugo Houle
78
66
75
69
76
71
79
65
79
78
70
69
69
32
Robert Stannard
72
72
77
67
73
75
73
67
68
76
72
68
68
24
Daniel Habtemichael
67
78
74
74
74
73
76
52
59
66
68
69
74
25
James Fouche
66
76
73
69
71
72
75
62
61
73
73
65
69
24
Bachirou Nikiema
69
69
75
62
71
73
71
65
70
75
73
71
63
25
Morne Van Niekerk
76
61
67
78
73
75
72
64
61
67
72
64
77
27
Henok Tesfaye Heyi
75
70
73
67
74
76
65
55
68
73
78
66
72
29
Jamalidin Novardianto
76
61
68
68
70
78
74
69
73
79
74
68
75
28
Salim Kipkemboi
67
73
75
57
67
72
71
55
63
74
71
68
59
24
Johann Van Zyl
74
71
74
73
74
74
72
71
62
66
73
60
73
31
Florian Vermeersch
71
62
66
70
68
71
63
70
70
74
67
75
72
23
Yacine Hamza
73
60
66
60
70
71
68
60
73
73
65
64
63
25
Nils Schomber
73
54
58
74
66
76
68
50
69
69
65
64
81
28
Darren Young
71
56
61
74
67
72
71
71
72
72
65
70
74
31
Corbin Strong
67
67
68
58
65
72
68
58
67
70
60
65
58
22
Regan Gough
68
60
64
68
65
67
67
63
71
72
69
64
72
26
Ilan Van Wilder
65
68
68
68
63
68
64
60
67
68
64
66
67
22
Vito Braet
69
60
66
58
70
71
63
68
68
67
62
60
64
22
Henri Vandenabeele
66
69
67
59
62
69
68
60
63
66
64
68
59
22
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: How do you go from selling Higuita, Rowe and more, to having a better team than last season? Two words - trained Areruya. The young Rwandan is arguably the best overall puncher in the division after his training. But he isn’t the only one that should be scoring for them. Bennett should be as solid as always, with very good depth in both the hills and mountains squad adding to the point-scoring. Houle is already a proven scorer for them and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t be the case again. Considering that they have a whole host of talents coming through in the next couple of years and a bit more, including someone like Stannard and Fouche, it is a testament to great team building. While jandal might not agree, I do believe they are a sure promotion contender and probably a podium contender for the season.
knockout: I don’t see the podium contender here. Sure, Areruya will be outstanding but I don’t see the depth scoring that made past PCT Xero teams so strong. Sure, Bennett and Houle are still very strong and cool and everything but behind him I don't see the riders that have a big upside or that niche where they can shine so much. Habtemichael, present day Stannard or Van Niekerk are good but they are not the sort of pieces you probably would need to get to finish on the podium.
Croatia14: I do. Areruya can do lots, and a big leader means so much already (and was something Xero was missing in the past). The game has evolved, but Bennett is a great wage/reward rider and Houle covers the amazing races. I still see glaring holes (why didn’t you renew Debesay back then, again?), but you can maneuver around TT and cobbled races with PCTs race choice. Xero is for real, if jandal can create a set-up to make them blossom. A lot depends on the race days without Houle, Bennett and Areruya and how jandal works his allrounders there (races for van Zyl, Habtemichael,...?).
jandal: Well after the training question I knew I would have to do some explaining on why I didn’t train Areruya in MO (like I had told you all I would for months) and also now you guys have me needing to revisit one of my worst days as manager when I didn’t secure Debesay by R3 last year… yeah that one was just stupidity. The Areruya training switch was just me panicking about not promoting and having a tough renewals in PCT next year with the four guys maxing out, and I thought he’d score more this year to help me promote as 81HI rather than 81MO, which I like more long term and think is more fun hence why it was always my plan. So, if my reason was wanting to promote, do I think it’s happening? No! Definitely coming down on the side of knockout here rather than you other two - have to hard disagree with Abhishek’s ludicrous take on looking stronger than last year, and don’t have us anywhere near the podium. Appreciate the support and can’t wait for Abhi’s identical answer in the Philips question on why I’m overhyping his team :P
MON
HIL
SPR
COB
TT
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
10
7
0
6
7
Croatia14
6
9
1
0
2
9
jandal7
6
8
3
1
4
7
knockout
6
9
3
0
3
6
Zara - Irizar
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Age
Rein Taaramäe
71
81
74
77
73
74
70
50
56
70
66
66
75
35
Fabio Jakobsen
74
59
67
59
75
73
81
73
80
80
67
68
69
26
Enric Mas
69
78
77
68
74
74
77
56
60
77
73
70
68
27
Nicola Conci
71
77
74
77
76
75
78
56
63
68
63
71
77
25
Benoit Cosnefroy
76
68
71
78
78
81
72
69
69
69
81
74
78
27
Andres Paez
73
72
77
68
74
70
73
58
73
76
76
65
68
27
Hugo Hofstetter
74
62
70
64
71
71
75
73
77
78
71
68
66
28
Marc Soler
69
76
71
74
76
74
76
54
54
66
60
61
77
29
Ruben Fernandez
66
75
75
66
72
69
72
57
60
66
72
72
65
31
Jaime Castrillo
77
66
67
76
75
72
72
55
70
73
71
67
76
26
Benjamin Thomas
73
56
66
78
75
73
70
64
74
79
64
66
79
27
Nico Keinath
70
75
72
71
71
70
67
55
58
64
67
59
71
35
Arthur Vichot
68
63
74
63
74
65
64
58
64
77
80
71
63
34
Leonardo Henrique Finkler
67
67
72
64
71
69
68
61
66
70
71
68
62
23
Jules Hesters
71
60
62
60
70
73
67
69
73
74
63
66
60
24
Jake Stewart
71
62
69
68
67
71
63
69
70
70
66
67
70
23
Nickolas Zukowsky
68
63
69
70
70
69
69
61
70
71
77
66
71
24
Luis Fernando De La Cruz Chapulin
67
65
69
60
70
72
68
64
67
71
71
67
65
22
Julian Cardona
70
64
62
73
69
70
65
62
64
67
60
65
73
25
Pau Miquel
67
66
69
58
70
72
68
61
63
65
65
67
58
22
Henry Alberto Sam
69
65
65
69
70
68
67
58
66
69
72
68
70
23
Yentl Vandevelde
68
58
62
69
65
65
65
60
62
65
68
65
69
22
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: The talent-squad extraordinaire is now much more settled and is already well suited to the PCT without having to make too many changes to their squad in the off season. Adding Taaramae, despite him being 35 years old, is a smart move, irrespective of the hugely stacked stage race field in the PCT this season. The former GT winner has great depth behind him, as has the TT and flat squads, which is where the bulk of their scoring can be expected. The hills should bring in some points, but there’s no top leader there while the cobbles are non-existent so to say. This should not be a hindrance though, and I see them being a top half PCT team this season and possibly pushing on to make a promotion push with a couple of additions as early as next season. A big shoutout to Philips legend Keinath, who gets another ride with this team this season.
knockout: Zara looks like the strongest promotion team to me and seem like the only one that shouldn't be too scared of the relegation fight. Taaramae is a great addition if maybe a bit old and Conci, Cosnefroy, Jakobsen, Mas, Paez the great core they already had last year that was praised for years already. However, I feel like this transfer window was a bit of a missed opportunity for the team. The team added once again multiple young talents to the team but Taaramäe and Hofstetter are the only short term improvements. Having Taaramae, Conci, Cosnefroy, Thomas, Castillo and Soler, I would have loved to see a proper push to get into the vacant top dog position in PCT TTT. Signing one or two more cheap TTT assets could have really put Taaramae, Conci and Cosnefroy into niches to score huge. Whether that’s buying bargain one-dimensional TT guys like Wen Hao Li or (if the cash depot is entirely empty) signing someone like Erik Rowsell or Beukeboom for min wage at the end of transfers instead of going for Vichot could have already improved their team by a lot imo.
Croatia14: That TTT note indeed is an important one, as it would’ve helped to maximize Concis output against the likes of Dunbar and Kämna. He already suffers from clashing “best race days” with Taaramae. The Estonian will keep the team afloat, Jakobsen already enjoyed C1 last year and also looks not far off Halvorsen and his success at Red Bull last year. The team is rock solid, but I miss them adding 1-2 great pieces more in the timeline of Jakobsen and Conci than what they got (and even if so I would’ve loved if they tried to get Cataford). Now I see a good team that can end up anywhere in the standings, but the (almost unfair) base advantage over other promoting teams could’ve made them go for even more.
jandal: Definitely can back up the point that this plus two low wage TT guys is a much better team, but already the TTT train looks pretty good here and certainly won’t hurt them in those races. Taaramae and Jakobsen are very good second tier guys while Mas should also be in that level for them with his cool statline, should be a great piece for them if planned properly. Conci too, he and Pogacar should both be trying to avoid the other so he should get some U25 wins as well as podiums and just good results in general. I could run through the rest of it more but the others covered it well, I just want to say how much I like this team, both the structure, the riders and the ages, such a cool long-term project that now has gone straight back into PCT and look well at home and only going to get better - this should be a fun year to plan and figure some things out without too much pressure either direction and valuable learning to grow next year and beyond.
For the statistical outcome we aggregated the scores by each member for all 6 categories to have a final score. The average of our scores creates a statistical outcome, which ranks the teams on the final score. Here is what our numbers suggest for 2022:
1
Amaysim
62.475
2
Bralirwa
62.025
3
Carlsberg
59.375
4
Binance
56.05
5
Xero
54.10
6
Volcanica
54.075
7
Philips
54.025
8
Voyagin
53.65
9
Minions
53.10
10
Zara
52.95
11
HelloFresh
52.525
12
Popo4Ever
52.00
13
Lierse
51.925
14
Red Bull
51.475
15
Assa Abloy
50.80
16
Cedevita
49.575
17
Kraftwerk
47.20
18
Gjensidige
46.425
19
Indosat
45.55
20
Strava
42.65
21
Project: Africa
41.50
22
Trans
40.825
23
Sauber
40.35
24
Crabbe
38.775
At the front it's a two horse race between Amaysim and Bralirwa, with the former edging it out comfortably to be in pole position for the title race. Carlsberg quite comfortably sits in third, while Binance also cuts the edge pretty clearly. Xero leads a very close race for 5th with best promoted team Volcanica, but the gap between 5th and 3rd is bigger than betwwn 5th and 16th, so the race is completely open.
On the bottom side statistics suggest 5 rather clear relegation candidates in Strava, Project: Africa, Trans, Sauber and Crabbe. However, the gaps inside these bottom 5 are very small. Likewise, the gap to Indosat, Gjensidige and Kraftwerk is not that big, so there definitely is hope.
Edited by Croatia14 on 29-09-2022 14:18
In a final step, the conglomerate "experts" adjust their statistical predictions to external factors such as calendar, experience and the dirty secrets PCM20 whispers into our ears. Floor, ceiling and past outcomes alongside the good old gut feeling surely played a part too.
AbhishekLFC
Croatia14
jandal7
knockout
1
Bralirwa
Amaysim
Amaysim
Amaysim
2
Amaysim
Bralirwa
Bralirwa
Bralirwa
3
Xero
Carlsberg
Carlsberg
Carlsberg
4
Binance
Xero
Binance
Assa Abloy
5
Carlsberg
Red Bull
Philips
Philips
6
Popo4Ever
Popo4Ever
Popo4Ever
Popo4Ever
7
Voyagin
Assa Abloy
Lierse
Lierse
8
Lierse
Binance
Assa Abloy
Xero
9
Zara
Lierse
Voyagin
Kraftwerk
10
Minions
Philips
Xero
Binance
11
Red Bull
Zara
Zara
Voyagin
12
Philips
Minions
Kraftwerk
Zara
13
Volcanica
Voyagin
Red Bull
Minions
14
Cedevita
Cedevita
Minions
Cedevita
15
Kraftwerk
HelloFresh
Cedevita
HelloFresh
16
Gjensidige
Kraftwerk
HelloFresh
Red Bull
17
HelloFresh
Sauber
Volcanica
Gjensidige
18
Assa Abloy
Volcanica
Indosat
Volcanica
19
Indosat
Indosat
Gjensidige
Indosat
20
Strava
Gjensidige
Sauber
Strava
21
Sauber
Trans
Strava
Crabbe
22
Project: Africa
Strava
Trans
Sauber
23
Trans
Crabbe
Project: Africa
Trans
24
Crabbe
Project: Africa
Crabbe
Project: Africa
As already suggested in the statistical outcome, it's Amaysim and Bralirwa fighting it out for the win, with success to the former in 3/4 predictions. All the same also have Carlsberg in 3rd, while they promote in evey approach. The other promotion positions are pretty contensted with 2*Xero, 2*Binance, 2*Philips, 1*Assa Abloy and 1*Red Bull predicted to promote. Shoutouts to Popo4Ever, who are missing out on promotion narrowly in every prediction (yes, we submitted our predictions all in a way that nobody saw each others prediction until everybody had submitted).
In the midfield, Lierse leads the charge being always in the Top10 but never in the promotion range. The mentioned promotion candidates do decent, with only Assa Abloy and Philips missing the Top10 once. Oh, and Red Bull only entering the Top10 once (but promoting there), stupid expert there... The likes of Zara, Voyagin and to an extent also Kraftwerk all place comfortably midtable, not getting too close to promotion or relegation zones anywehere. Cedevita, Hello Fresh and Volcanica place in the lower half of the midfield, but never in urgent relegation danger.
That differs for Indosat and Gjensidige: Both almost everywhere avoid the drop closely, but in one prediction Gjesidige narrowly falls down. Left are five teams, of whose Sauber at least once managed to avoid the drop. Elsewhere four teams seem pretty doomed going by our experts, though Strava almost everywhere got close to survival. For Trans (never last at least), Crabbe and Project:Africa there is a tough season ahead, with survival seemingly only happening if they do an amazing job at planning or having the necessary race luck.
In one last ranking we merge the "expert predictions" in one final ranking:
Team
Avg Position
1
Amaysim
1,25
2
Bralirwa
1,75
3
Carlsberg
3,5
4
Popo4Ever
6
5
Xero
6,25
6
Binance
6,75
7
Philips
8
8
Lierse
8
9
Assa Abloy
9,25
10
Voyagin
10
11
Zara
10,75
12
Red Bull
11,25
13
Minions
12,25
14
Kraftwerk
13
15
Cedevita
14,25
16
HelloFresh
15,75
17
Volcanica
16,5
18
Gjensidige
18
19
Indosat
18,75
20
Sauber
20
21
Strava
20,75
22
Trans
22,25
23
Crabbe
23
24
Project: Africa
23,25
Thank you for reading and interacting, it was a pleasure to do the preview once more!
Edited by Croatia14 on 29-09-2022 15:01
Enjoyed this so far!! Good read and responses to the questions. Happily taking the good comments about my team so far but will see what your collective thoughts are when focussed on a team by team basis.
Love seeing this back! Always an absolutely phenomenal read that covers all the bases and does so in a cool format. Thank you all for your contributions!
Not sure what to make of the comments putting us in the promotion hunt this time around. We were obviously projected to be there last year and flubbed our planning enough to miss even the top 10. Not sure much has changed in my planning skill this time around. Obviously interested to see how you guys analyze it in the full team section though!
I knew the Aranburu training was controversial before I pulled the trigger, so not unexpected to see that expressed above. I can't deny that his lack of stamina and acceleration is a major issue, and he is likely a better rider overall with 79 mountain than 79 hill given his makeup. Ultimately it was about his fit on my team long term. I think the money investment makes sense if he's my lead puncheur long term, but it won't if he's my second or third climber. Similarly I didn't think the extra mountain stats would help much this year given my calendar and the abundance of climbers in PCT. But it was touch and go with the decision, and I recognize I might have made the wrong choice. We'll see the story the season tells.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Lovely work, thanks so much! Cool to see how much we've been able to outperform expectations last year. Given the high expectations now, this won't be repeatable, but meeting the expectations is a very nice goal to have as well.
I will push back a little on us losing almost nothing. Between Fiedler, Rosskopf, Perera and a few others, we lost something like 600-800 points. Madrazo will have to do very well to close that gap plus the 400 points we were off from promoting last year. But he hopefully can.
I'm looking forward to the individual team previews, and to the expert rankings. I also vote that "to kraftwerk" becomes an established part of ManGame vocabulary!
@bbl/cunego: Think i want to cover both of you with one reply: For me, this season's promotion fight feels a bit like last season's relegation fight. You look at individual teams and think about many teams "they probably are not going to really end there" but when you look at the entire picture, you have to predict someone to finish there.
This season, we had the special case of only having two teams relegating from PT. Without looking up about how many relegated teams are disbanding in average years, that's like two (or three) teams less that usually would be amongst the promotion contenders, add the reduction from 26 teams to 24 teams and suddenly those teams that feel like they should finish eight, nineth or tenth will slide right into the promotion spots.
I want to promote redordeads PCT prediction that shows the different tiers of teams according to his opinion quite well. His prediction had the 5th to 9th place almost indistinguishable and some of us had a very similar tier list with six or seven teams on a very similar level. And strictly talking my own expert prediction, i feel quite bad about whichever teams i put as 4th or 5th since they feel just as much as a 7th to 9th place finisher as the teams behind them.
Spoiler
That's not meant as a knock on those teams and not meant to say that promotion this season is worth less than in the past. It was very difficult to improve via FA and also teams looking weaker than they should to finish [insert a place] is probably a constant thing of the future when de-inflation measurements succeed and we are still stuck in our super inflation mindset where every season all divisions looked stronger than the previous year.
knockout wrote:
I want to promote redordeads PCT prediction that shows the different tiers of teams according to his opinion quite well. His prediction had the 5th to 9th place almost indistinguishable and some of us had a very similar tier list with six or seven teams on a very similar level.
Wording it like that makes my prediction sound way more advanced, when it's actually very simple and lazy
I agree that the division is way more open this season which I find exciting - it would be great to see a few ‘underdog’ teams sneak their way up into the promotion places. A lot will most likely depend entirely on luck though.
At the other end, it’s a hard year for teams coming up from PCT. I definitely don’t envy the ~7 managers that had to make a jump, but it appears a couple have made an excellent effort to keep themselves afloat and should probably even be above the relegation speculation.
I know we’ll be hanging around the bottom again this season, but am a lot more confident with the squad this season as well as my planning - as knockout said the TT training for Dunbar opens up so many different race planning avenues in comparison to MT training (this season at least, MT training with the stage racer armada this season would have been wrong). We’ve lost around 700 points this season, but Borges and Dunbar’s increased points make up for that alone along with actually having some form of depth now. Last year below Warchol/Dunbar and Jensen, the highest rider in MT and Hil was 76Mt (Arifin) and 75hil (Luch) so actually having some depth in these areas should keep us up for another season I hope
Thanks again for the analysis, looking forward to the team previews.
